Shane Wahl

Here I go with more incredulity: On what planet is it justified to have Shane Robinson on this roster instead of Oswaldo Arcia? Prove something in AAA? Uh, he did that quite awhile ago . . . it started in 2013 . . . then again in 2014. Do you really need to see him get to .900 OPS again in AAA before switching him with Shane Robinson? Do you know how many question marks I wanted to use for all of the above questions? I get the immediate intuition about having a full lineup, but since when isn't it a good idea to have 13 position players who are good? Oswaldo Arcia no longer needs to "play every day" somewhere to develop. Neither does Aaron Hicks. Or Eddie Rosario. Etc. There is a way to juggle Sano, Plouffe, Mauer, Hunter, Rosario, Hicks, and Arcia around so that 6 of the 7 are starting and then there is one actual weapon on the bench to use when X sub-.600 OPS catcher strolls up into the box. Or it's Danny Santana. Or Eduardo Escobar.

The Twins are often seemingly unclear as to why they keep players around who they clearly don't like as MLBers. Pinto, Tonkin, Oliveros, and Achter are clear examples.

True. The thing that is funny about it, though, is that this makes him a much better backup who can come in and pinch hit for somebody in those situations!

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/padres-preparing-for-active-creative-deadline.html Not limited to such players, certainly, but they don't want to rebuild either. Likely AA or above.

That's the issue . . . now that this has been screwed up, the fix has to come quickly instead of a trial run for these guys. All three (Achter, Oliveros, and Tonkin) have had weird issues when given their, albeit limited, time in the majors.

Anyone care to track down recent setup men trades for an idea of the return desired? Here is a list of 1x-2x prospects who are close-ish to the big leagues the Twins could/should be willing to trade if they are serious: Tyler Duffey Travis Harrison Zach Jones Jake Reed Levi Michael And here is a list of other major and minor league players they could find a way to package together: Eduardo Escobar Danny Santana Danny Ortiz Lester Oliveros A.J. Achter Reynaldo Rodriguez James Beresford Beyond these players, I don't know how much I would give up for an oldster reliever.

Padres seem to want MLB-players or close to MLB-players. I have no idea, but I would certainly ship Escobar and Travis Harrison if that is the kind of price they want.

Santana was the anti-Hicks last year. Promoted before being ready . . . but he somehow hit very well. He was always a marginal 20-25 prospect even back in the lean days of 2010-2012. He only emerged pre-2014 as a 15ish prospect because he was solid enough as a speedy middle infielder to progress up the system and there was some slugging potential. Well . . . he lost almost all of that slugging and his SB-CS is ONE. His K/BB rate is about as egregious as I have ever seen. I would send him to AAA for the remainder of the season. Escobar is fine if you all are really that concerned about Polanco's glove right now. But if you stay so concerned then you better call for trading him.

Just go with Polanco and BE DONE WITH IT.

Until the sub .600 OPS he provides gets too tiresome.

Eric Fryer is in no way any kind of answer to anything. Herrmann pounded AAA ball too last year. Fryer will not hit MLB pitching. That said, it is better to use Fryer once a week than Herrmann.

I wouldn't get too concerned about the number next to the name. He is likely a top 15 pitching prospect in almost every other organization. Also, his ranking will rise naturally when he moves up another level. The system is also unusually heavy with relievers right now. That isn't going to last. Bard just has so little actual professional time under his belt that it is hard to put him higher up on this list.

Wow. Just wow. That is a straight up indictment of the Twins pitching coaches.

Here we are on July 7th now. Last seven innings aside, it has been a disaster.

I was jabbering about him all year, then basically gave up on him within the last week. Then lo and behold . . .

Lost in this Burdi business is the fact that Brandon Peterson moved up to Chatty and has continued to be lights out.

Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, Alex Meyer (return), Lester Oliveros, Zach Jones, and . . . . JT Chargois (wow!). Hughes-Santana-Gibson-May, the above 6 relievers, and Perkins. You can see the pitching fire sale I would want at the deadline. That all won't happen, but it would be a radical move and I would like to see it at least in some less extreme form. The playoff-ready bench should be: Pinto, Vargas, Arcia/Hicks, Escobar (Polanco starting SS), Kepler/Walker. I realize that the Twins being a contender and trading Hunter will not happen at the same time, but alas. I would bet that Vargas isn't involved at all or Arcia is traded somehow to allow for Rosario-Buxton-Hunter. Someone LH has to be on that bench with some pop though. I think a playoff quality team has Oswaldo Arcia on the bench to use as PH pop. Suzuki could be embarrassing at the plate in the playoffs, so there might be Herrmann instead of Pinto if the Twins really still can't help Pinto behind the plate.

It is time to re-evaluate the top pitching prospects in the Twins system. Trevor May graduated, and the 2015 draft brought in three fresh pitchers to this list. 1. Jose Berrios (1): RHS, 5-27-94 2015 status: Strong improvement over 2014 AA numbers. Promoted to AAA. ETA: essentially MLB ready now. 2. Tyler Jay (NR): LHR, 4-19-94 2015 status: Sent to Fort Myers to the bullpen, likely for the remainder of 2015. Starting ability in question. ETA: 2017 3. Stephen Gonsalves (5): LHS, 7-8-94 2015 status: Totally dominated A ball, hitting a learning curve in A+ ball, but it should only be a matter of time. Perhaps A+/AA split in 2016. ETA: 2018 4. Alex Meyer (2): RHS, 1-3-90 2015 status: Struggled in AAA as a starter, converted to reliever temporarily, promoted to Twins as such, optioned back to AAA. Maybe he works on a few things and is back relieving for a playoff Twins team. Otherwise, they have to move him back to try starting one more time. ETA: should be back in 2015. 5. Taylor Rogers (9): LHS, 12-17-90 2015 status: Strong AAA time, replicating his AA numbers from 2014. I would like to see a playoff push involving Rogers as a lights out LOOGY. ETA: 2015 as a reliever, 2016 as a starter. 6. Chih-Wei Hu (15): RHS, 11-4-93 2015 status: Hu has finally given up some home runs, but that is about all that has changed from his excellent production in 2013 and 2014. He is an 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 kind of guy. It will be interesting to see how they manage his innings for the rest of the season, since I doubt that he is going to be top 110 innings or so and he is at 66.2 right now. ETA: 2017. 7. Kohl Stewart (3): RHS, 10-7-94 2015 status: A mediocre strikeout rate has actually fallen sharply in 2015. There is a lot of hand-waving about it as though it doesn't matter, but I think some caution is warranted here. Clearly, Stewart will be in Fort Myers again in 2016. ETA: 2018. 8. Tyler Duffey (10): RHS, 12-27-90 2015 status: Like Hu, Duffey is producing at his current level with very similar numbers as his overall minor league career numbers, and that is telling. He has been excellent this year, and I almost placed him ahead of Stewart. ETA: 2016. 9. Lewis Thorpe (7): LHS, 11-23-95 2015 status: The Twins and Thorpe decided to not have Tommy John surgery last September and this amounted to long delay of the inevitable,as Thorpe's April surgery will mean that he is out until at least mid-season 2016. He will only be about 20 and a half when he returns in 2016 (I would assume GCL/Fort Myers) so his status is still top-10 worthy. ETA: 2019 with level/year development. 10. Brandon Peterson (13): RHR, 9-23-91 2015 status: Peterson did not get the attention that Nick Burdi and Jake Reed did after last season. Then the Twins kept him down in Fort Myers for some inexplicable reason. Now, he is up in Chattanooga and he has not missed a beat at all. The 13 K/9 coupled with an acceptable 3.3 BB/9 makes him an elite reliever prospect. ETA: 2016. 11. Zach Jones (12): RHR, 12-4-90 2015 status: Jones was dominant until his last two appearances and is now on the DL. When he gets healthy, the Twins should consider promoting him to AAA. ETA: 2015 or 2016. 12. Nick Burdi (4): RHR, 1-19-93 2015 status: Things started poorly, got significantly better for a little bit, then went so poorly that the Twins actually just demoted Burdi back to Fort Myers, in a move that is rather perplexing, even with his bad performance. His mechanics have been altered significantly, and this might be the problem. ETA: 2017. 13. Jake Reed (8): RHR, 9-29-92 2015 status: Like Burdi, the stock is falling here for Jake Reed. He has struggled in AA and should remain there well into next season. ETA: 2016 only if all goes well. 14. Kyle Cody (NR): RHS, 8-9-95 2015 status: Still unsigned, for whatever reason. I am personally not very enthused with this draft pick. ETA: 2019 15. Felix Jorge (20): RHS, 1-2-94 2015 status: He's back and pitching very well. The strikeout rate has dropped, but so has the walk rate. He is also not giving up very many hits. I think he likely moves to A+ when the Twins move Hu to AA. ETA: 2018. 16. JT Chargois (HM): RHR, 12-3-90 2015 status: Chargois is back after not pitching in 2013 or 2014. He is doing very well, though his control is an issue. It was rather shocking how he dominated A+ ball though, and he is up to AA. ETA: 2016 if he remains healthy. 17. Alex Robinson (NR): LHR, 8-11-94 2015 status: After being drafted in the fifth round, he headed off to the Elizabethon bullpen. ETA: 2019. 18. Michael Cederoth (11): RHP, 11-25-92 2015 status: He has struggled a bit in A ball this year, walking a lot of guys as a starter. He moved to the bullpen and has been excellent. I imagine he stays there. ETA: 2018. 19. Mat Batts (HM): LHS, 7-6-91 2015 status: After a very strong start to the 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, Batts was promoted to Fort Myers where he continues to be fantastic. ETA: 2018. 20. Cameron Booser (24): LHR, 5-4-92 2015 status: Strong for Cedar Rapids, but he is walking an awful lot of guys. He strikes out a ton too, though. ETA: 2018. 21. Trevor Hildenberger (NR): RHR, 12-15-90 2015 status: Hildenberger has been out of control dominant for Cedar Rapids. It isn't clear why he is not in Fort Myers by now. ETA: 2017, if the Twins are at all serious about him. 22. Aaron Slegers (HM): RHS, 9-4-92 2015 status: Slegers is a solid starting pitching prospect who might continue to climb the prospect rankings, but shouldn't fall far. Very good K/BB rate. ETA: 2018. 23. John Curtiss (14): RHS, 4-5-93 2015 status: I was too high on Curtiss going into the season. He has been hit pretty hard in A ball this year. The strikeouts are still there, but it is going to be a slow ascent in the system. ETA: 2019. 24. Alexis Tapia (NR): RHS, 8-10-95 2015 status: Very young, but with good strikeout and walk numbers. Could climb fast. ETA 2019. 25. Alex Wimmers (NR): RHS, 11-1-88 2015 status: It is fantastic that Wimmers has gotten back into the swing of things. That he is starting again and striking people out is a testament to his perseverance. ETA: 2016 if the Twins are aggressive. 26. Randy Rosario (22): LHS, 5-18-94 2015 status: Hopefully, a healthy Rosario can get on track and return to showing the promise of his pre-2014 career. ETA: 2019. 27. Todd Van Steensel (HM): RHR, 1-14-91 2015 status: Van Steensel is a strikeout machine for Fort Myers. Undoubtedly, he will finish the year in AA if some of the pitchers in AA and AAA get promotions. ETA: 2016. 28. Ryan O'Rourke (25): LHR, 4-30-88 2015 status: O'Rourke has just been promoted to the Twins. He has been hit hard by right-handed hitters this year again, but the strikeout numbers against lefties are astounding. He could make it as a dominant LOOGY. A Twins playoff bullpen with Rogers and O'Rourke would negate left-handed hitters in the late innings. ETA: right now. 29. Luke Bard (NR): RHR, 11-13-90 2015 status: Bard is back healthy and looks to get his career on track. I am placing him above some honorable mentions here because he was the 42nd pick in the 2012 draft. ETA: 2017 if he stays healthy and the Twins are aggressive with him in 2016. 30. DJ Baxendale (NR), RHS, 12-8-90 2015 status: Shows what I know. I thought Baxendale was a slightly better version of BJ Hermsen after his bad 2014 in AA. He returned there and has been solid. He just needs to stay healthy and fine-tune things and he could be another starting option in 2016. ETA: 2016. Honorable Mentions: Yorman Landa, Ryan Eades, Kuo-Hua Lo, Mason Melotakis, Corey Williams, Alex Muren, Fernando Romero, Jason Wheeler, Brett Lee, Adrian Salcedo, Tim Shibuya, Matt Summers This is an extensive list, ending with a lot of "C" prospects who could still develop and move up this list. I tend to value progress up into the higher levels of the minors a bit more than ceiling, until high-ceiling pitchers actually get to A+ ball and succeed. Breaking this down by ETA: 2015: 1. Berrios. 4. Meyer. 5. Rogers. 11. Jones. 28. O'Rourke. (3 SP, 2 RP) 2016: 8. Duffey. 10. Peterson. 13. Reed. 16. Chargois. 25. Wimmers. 27. Van Steensel. 30. Baxendale. (3 SP, 4 RP) 2017: 2. Jay. 6. Hu. 12. Burdi. 21. Hildenberger. 29. Bard. (2 SP, 3 RP) 2018: 3. Gonsalves. 7. Stewart. 15. Jorge. 18. Cederoth. 19. Batts. 20. Booser. 22. Slegers. (5 SP, 2 RP) 2019: 9. Thorpe. 14. Cody. 17. Robinson. 23. Curtiss. 24. Tapia. 26. Rosario. (4 SP, 2 RP) Not all thirty (42) are going to actually arrive in the show, but each one of these guys could realize his potential and get there someday, with some team. There is also adequate depth, clearly, to trade from as the Twins become serious contenders in 2016 and beyond.

Rogers went 6.1 innings in each of his last three starts. This season he had one four inning, one five inning, and one 5.2 inning start, otherwise going six or more innings in the 14 other starts. He is ready for The Show. Now, what his role will be immediately is likely as a lefty reliever, because A: the Twins don't have many good ones at all on the big league club or in the upper minors, and B: Rogers is holding lefties to a .383 OPS this season. He is, without a doubt, the best lefty up in the upper minors right now, and given the fact that Ryan O'Rourke didn't emerge this year after a strong 2014 against lefties, the door is wide open. If the Twins are serious about the playoffs this year, they are going to need to go into them with a dominant lefty with Perkins out of the bullpen. The long-term has Rogers remaining a starter in 2016, so the Twins are going to want to keep his innings up this year. Personally, I would give him four more AAA starts and then call him up to the Twins bullpen. He could immediately get a long relief stint in and then work his way in to MR lefty situations. He could still top 150 innings while being quite useful for a contending team. If the Twins falls off the face of the earth out of contention, then I would wait on the call longer, probably in September.

The offense has gone terribly south. Last 28 days: .184/.237/.264 That said, this has basically come at the same time as his move to CF. He has committed one error in center field. Does anyone have any word on the overall defensive performance in CF in the past month for Ortiz in Rochester? It's frustrating to try to find anything about this and come up short. Inside sources are needed . . . Anyway, overall if the defense in CF is even average, the slump with the bat is a fair exchange right now. Ortiz has a future as a 4th OF somewhere, but very likely not much of one as a corner OF player, except in platoon situations.

The bat has officially come back and his OPS over the past 28 days is .728. In his last 18 plate appearances it is .833. All of this has pushed his season OPS to a whopping .457. Still, this in my view is way better than a demotion. Demotions are weird things to do to highly talented players.

Anyway, Seth, what is the Barrie story? Haha.

He also is celebrating his 24th birthday today!

After a rough outing on the 28th, Batts returned to form on July 4th, going six strong innings with no runs given up. 2015 A stats: 40.2 IP, 2.21 ERA, 44 K, 11 BB, 1.033 WHIP 2015 A+ stats: 40.1 IP, 2.01 ERA, 34 K, 6 BB, 1.066 WHIP Batts now has a 9.2 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 141.2 career IP.

Reliever stats in 2015: 24 IP, 2.63 ERA, 33 K, 12 BB, and no respect from the Twins.