Shane Wahl

The Trade Rosario crowd better stick around until 2015 to see if he is a MLB second baseman . . . if so . . . yikes, the Twins would have made yet another decisively stupid decision regarding their middle infield. Anyway, Shields for Span, Swarzak, and Hermsen might get it done. And if you are willing to trade Span, then you should be willing to add those other two as well. Revere is tradeable, but only if you are talking about adding a Berrios and Summers in there as well.

It is disturbing that apparently millions of Americans can be swayed by a sham of a debate that covered nothing, had one of its contestants playing prevent defense and allowing touchdown after touchdown, and had the other one lying left and right.

Buerhle at 3/43.5 wouldn't have been terrible. I did not know that they broke down his contract like that.

Vavra was not at all the problem. Anderson and Gardenhire are. Gardy's sticking around is one thing given his contract, but Anderson REALLY needs to go away.

Yes, if the Twins DON'T spend $20 million on FA pitchers, the payroll starts dipping under 90 and down, down, down. I agree about replaceable talent. The Twins system has a lot of outfielders, long relievers, middle relievers, and likely first baseman (Parmelee, Vargas, and likely Sano).

Good article and thanks for the summation. Carroll's numbers do surprise me.

Trade away talent for talent. Sounds like a zero sum game to me right now. The Twins signing and ADDING to their roster . . . which can mean trading them later in the year, is the recipe for success. If the Twins want to trade Swarzak, Bigley, and Burnett for some middle infield B-level prospect at AA, then that is another story . . .

Pinto is a year away from serious consideration for the Rule 5. I like him a lot, though, and a full year at AA will be interesting for him. Of course the Twins could promote him to AAA in mid-July like they normally do for solid performers, but . . . oh wait, they don't do that.

No it isn't more complicated. But there is some STRONG nay-saying going on around here. The Twins were a COMPLETE mess at the beginning 1/6+ of the season. 7-21 DUE to players who are not going to be around anymore (Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn, and Marquis) is a big deal. And the woes continues for some of them for 1-3 months later. The Twins are truly about 10 games under performance, but most of that is the result of the disaster at the beginning of the season.

There is no doubt in my mind right now. If Manaea is there at 4, they have got to take him. He is ridiculous.

Two words: Sean Manaea

By the way, a quick prediction: Yankees-Dempster, Red Sox-Haren, Dodgers-Peavy, Angels-Greinke, and Rangers-Sanchez

Glunn, I understand that point. I think that Jackson is harder to get in that regard. I would put Greinke, Dempster, A. Sanchez, Haren, and Peavy at the top of the list of the big spenders, even though it would be a mistake to give such contracts to Greinke and Peavy in particular. If those five go to 5 different teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Rangers, for example), then the market gets more interesting after that. Convincing players to come to the Twins has to involve a clear future in 2013 and beyond for success (telling X that the Twins are interested in Y, and vice versa, would be a good part of that). This blueprint would be what is communicated to potential free agents like Jackson and Marcum (and the blueprint isn't done yet). 3/30 is a baseline for Jackson, but MAY be high for Marcum. The Twins could spend 3/30 on Marcum and 3/42 on Jackson and that is only a $4 million/year increase from my plan and that means still under $100 million (+ for Baker incentives). Ervin Santana is not a terrible option. I do think that my blueprint, unfortunately, is at the top of the possible spectrum for the Twins to actually commit to and the likelihood is fairly low. Jackson and Santana is a bit more probable. Marcum and Santana more, Santana and Blanton more, etc. down to some horrible Jeremy Guthrie and Erik Bedard situation. I do think that they will add two pitchers though. Who they are is the big difference.

Haha, well yes. I am assuming certain things about him being targeted by Boston in a big way.

After a 7-21 start, the Twins are 59-73. Included in that was a ridiculous mid-August of 2-14. Outside those two stretches (the first plauged by starting pitching that made everyone vomit every game, the second plagued, I believe, by some injuries), the Twins were 57-59. A healthy and intact lineup with the current condition of the rotation would mean 76-80 wins. Adding just two second-tier starting pitchers could make that jump to 83-87. Finally, add bench depth and a solid rotation of players (including Parmelee on the roster does this) and the Twins are at 85-89. Add in a breakthrough from one or more of Gibson, Baker, Hendriks, Dozier, Arcia, Hicks, and Herrmann, and the Twins could be at or top 90 wins. That is obviously a "half full" account, but it also isn't crazy. And it can be done with a payroll of $95-100 million.

Had to edit that since I started writing it before Jackson's last start . . .

In part one of the blueprint, I laid out the Twins 2013 roster as I see it should be (disclaimer: this means that this is what the Twins *should* do, not a prediction as to what they *will* do). In part two, I focus more intensely on the pitching situation, and turn the pitching staff first for obviously reasons. I am not completely against trading away MLB players or even some prospects (lower levels) for MLB-ready or near MLB-ready pitching, but I do think there is a better way to go about it. My path for 2013 (and through 2015) is to sign Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson to, for example, 3 years and $30 million each. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he had a 3.77 ERA (before a disastrous last start) and has pitched near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers who have up eerily similar numbers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year. I am not sure how the market is going to play out, but the Twins should be aggressive. The long-term salary projections for this team are quite favorable as it is the case that Morneau, Willingham, and Span are going to be replaced with much cheaper options in the coming years. With the subtraction of Nishioka's salary from my 2013 salary projection, $20 million for Marcum and Jackson leaves the salary at around $93-94 million. So, for those who say that the Twins would never sign two pitchers like this, maybe demanding that the Twins make such signings is a better use of time! Diamond-Jackson-Marcum at the top is dramatically better than what the Twins started out with in 2012. The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time. Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million. So the rotation, including Hendriks (who I still believe will prove to be a good pitcher, certainly worthy of a 4th or 5th spot in the Twins rotation) and Deduno (let's say), would be remarkably improved and there would again be depth at AAA, including Gibson and Baker. A healthy and good Gibson and the return of a good Baker would mean that Hendriks is back at AAA anyway (barring injury at the top). With regard to the bullpen, I am not an Anthony Swarzak fan for a variety of reasons, so the Twins should trade him for Big Foot and be done. I would give the LR role to Cole DeVries. The only thing I am not sure of is whether or not Deolis Guerra would clear waivers. He is out of options, and the Twins didn't bother giving him a September look for some insane reason. I still believe, of course, that Anthony Slama should be with the Twins. Guerra needs more time in AAA and Slama clearly does not, so he gets the nod. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. I don't really trust him at all, but at least it is good that he has an option left. Tyler Robertson provides solid strikeout potential from the left side and has improved during the year. Casey Fien was a great surprise this year. I hope that this continues and he can serve as a strong middle reliever as basically Brian Duensing's other half. Speaking of Duensing, no more moving him into the rotation. Ever. I cannot understand why such a stupid move was made in 2012. A solid Fien and the Duensing-who-isn't-messed-with-by-incompetent-managing, provides a good 7th/8th foundation for Burton and Perkins. So the 2013 staff would look like this: Scott Diamond Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks (Baker/Gibson) Sam Deduno (Baker/Gibson) Cole DeVries Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra) Tyler Robertson Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins (other options throughout the year are Guerra, Burnett, Lester Oliveros, Caleb Thielbar, Luis Perdomo, and perhaps Dakota Watts and Bruce Pugh) Note: other free agent signings that I could live with: Ervin Santana, Joe Blanton, and perhaps even Joe Saunders. In part three, the focus will be on the position players and the notion that depth is a good thing.

In part one of the blueprint, I laid out the Twins 2013 roster as I see it should be (disclaimer: this means that this is what the Twins *should* do, not a prediction as to what they *will* do). In part two, I focus more intensely on the pitching situation, and turn the pitching staff first for obviously reasons. I am not completely against trading away MLB players or even some prospects (lower levels) for MLB-ready or near MLB-ready pitching, but I do think there is a better way to go about it. My path for 2013 (and through 2015) is to sign Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson to, for example, 3 years and $30 million each. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he had a 3.77 ERA (before a disastrous last start) and has pitched near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers who have up eerily similar numbers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year. I am not sure how the market is going to play out, but the Twins should be aggressive. The long-term salary projections for this team are quite favorable as it is the case that Morneau, Willingham, and Span are going to be replaced with much cheaper options in the coming years. With the subtraction of Nishioka's salary from my 2013 salary projection, $20 million for Marcum and Jackson leaves the salary at around $93-94 million. So, for those who say that the Twins would never sign two pitchers like this, maybe demanding that the Twins make such signings is a better use of time! Diamond-Jackson-Marcum at the top is dramatically better than what the Twins started out with in 2012. The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time. Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million. So the rotation, including Hendriks (who I still believe will prove to be a good pitcher, certainly worthy of a 4th or 5th spot in the Twins rotation) and Deduno (let's say), would be remarkably improved and there would again be depth at AAA, including Gibson and Baker. A healthy and good Gibson and the return of a good Baker would mean that Hendriks is back at AAA anyway (barring injury at the top). With regard to the bullpen, I am not an Anthony Swarzak fan for a variety of reasons, so the Twins should trade him for Big Foot and be done. I would give the LR role to Cole DeVries. The only thing I am not sure of is whether or not Deolis Guerra would clear waivers. He is out of options, and the Twins didn't bother giving him a September look for some insane reason. I still believe, of course, that Anthony Slama should be with the Twins. Guerra needs more time in AAA and Slama clearly does not, so he gets the nod. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. I don't really trust him at all, but at least it is good that he has an option left. Tyler Robertson provides solid strikeout potential from the left side and has improved during the year. Casey Fien was a great surprise this year. I hope that this continues and he can serve as a strong middle reliever as basically Brian Duensing's other half. Speaking of Duensing, no more moving him into the rotation. Ever. I cannot understand why such a stupid move was made in 2012. A solid Fien and the Duensing-who-isn't-messed-with-by-incompetent-managing, provides a good 7th/8th foundation for Burton and Perkins. So the 2013 staff would look like this: Scott Diamond Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks (Baker/Gibson) Sam Deduno (Baker/Gibson) Cole DeVries Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra) Tyler Robertson Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins (other options throughout the year are Guerra, Burnett, Lester Oliveros, Caleb Thielbar, Luis Perdomo, and perhaps Dakota Watts and Bruce Pugh) Note: other free agent signings that I could live with: Ervin Santana, Joe Blanton, and perhaps even Joe Saunders. In part three, the focus will be on the position players and the notion that depth is a good thing.

Yeah, I am not sure why Pierre would be problematic at all. I would say that if other prospects have more than what a Pierre-type would offer, then I would say he loses his place. Pierre, THIS YEAR, has been very good. Anyway, Revere is also a better defender than Pierre. And I am also not saying that Revere as the 4th OF (but rotated in significantly) after 2014 would be a bad thing either.

And if Arcia falls to where he was in FTM in 2011, what kind of mismanagement will Twins embark upon with him!? I would like to see him get the extended look that Parmelee got (EVENTUALLY) at AAA this year. 200+ PAs.

Why drop Matt Hauser?

Beckmt, I am not in favor of starting the season with Hicks and Arcia making the Twins roster. I don't mean to say that *at no point* should Span and/or Revere be traded during 2013. I would like to see the continuation of 2012 success into 2013 at AAA for Hicks and Arcia. Nishioka's salary back is helpful. It's the difference between a Saunders and and a Marcum.

Why do that? One is a marginal guy who is a good enough player, but is also a pretty known player. Carson is reliable and is worth keeping in the organization next year. Herrmann is a prospect, and a C/LF prospect at that. Why not let him bat and get a chance this September? That is totally perplexing to me. I just do not understand what this manager thinks at all.

Great article. Brock, instead of another MI, maybe that extra 3 million moves the team away from Jeremy Guthrie and towards Ervin Santana?

I don't know if Slama is in the doghouse. I don't know how he possibly could be. I mean . . . Alexi Casilla still got significant playing time this year! I don't know what the Twins WILL do, but that is not the point of this. This is what they SHOULD do.