Shane Wahl

Now, Mr. Blackburn, did you just see what Nishioka did there?

Casilla is a total waste of $1.5 million (the difference between the $2 million he would somehow be owed, and Brian Dozier). He is a goner, thankfully. I didn't mind a lot of this interview other than the damn Mauer remarks about batting second. Depth and balnace don't matter. The number 2 hitter gets more plate appearances. Good grief. Mauer is MADE for the 2 spot. And frankly, Willingham is made for the 3 spot (best way to score a run with 2 out and nobody on is obviously a homer). Gardenhire's reliance on "old school" mentality is just childish. Span, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit, Dozier, Revere, Florimon is the best use of those nine players. Parmelee would replace the Doumit spot and Carroll the Florimon spot. OBP is a simple stat for you to know, Gardy. GET WITH IT.

Ervin Santana is the third pitcher that the Twins should target. For the first two, see my most recent blog post!

This is the first part of four parts of my 2013 Twins blueprint. The following is an overview of the roster. Part two will focus on the pitchers, part three on the position players, and part four will be centered around both contingency plans for 2013 and looking toward the future beyond 2013. Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them. With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench. What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury: Denard Span Ben Revere Joe Mauer Josh Willingham Justin Morneau Trevor Plouffe Ryan Doumit Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Chris Parmelee Jamey Carroll Darin Mastroianni Chris Herrmann Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle) Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this in part two) Cole DeVries Tyler Robertson Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra gets passed through waivers) Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $96 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as what the 2012 team was supposed to cost before certain releases and trades. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight. My 2013 roster removes the dead weight. The idea is to keep the best players and add good players to replace bad or mediocre players. This means what I refer to as a "Thome bench" and a "2006 quality rotation." Having a bench that always includes an impact bat is a vital thing for all good teams. That extra player either fills in for injured players or becomes the pinch hitter needed in close games. This would be Parmelee at the very beginning of the season, but would rotate between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Span, and Revere as well. Having "too much" is a good thing. I do not mean that a Johan Santana is being added, but bringing in Jackson and Marcum means bolstering the rotation in a strong way. There is no messing around with this kind of talent. They are better than everyone other than the 2012 Scott Diamond and glimpses of Scott Baker. The cost to add both is not bad at all and, again, this team costs just as much as the planned 2012 Twins team. In part two I will address the pitching staff in detail.

This is the first part of four parts of my 2013 Twins blueprint. The following is an overview of the roster. Part two will focus on the pitchers, part three on the position players, and part four will be centered around both contingency plans for 2013 and looking toward the future beyond 2013. Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them. With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench. What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury: Denard Span Ben Revere Joe Mauer Josh Willingham Justin Morneau Trevor Plouffe Ryan Doumit Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Chris Parmelee Jamey Carroll Darin Mastroianni Chris Herrmann Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle) Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this in part two) Cole DeVries Tyler Robertson Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra gets passed through waivers) Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $96 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as what the 2012 team was supposed to cost before certain releases and trades. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight. My 2013 roster removes the dead weight. The idea is to keep the best players and add good players to replace bad or mediocre players. This means what I refer to as a "Thome bench" and a "2006 quality rotation." Having a bench that always includes an impact bat is a vital thing for all good teams. That extra player either fills in for injured players or becomes the pinch hitter needed in close games. This would be Parmelee at the very beginning of the season, but would rotate between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Span, and Revere as well. Having "too much" is a good thing. I do not mean that a Johan Santana is being added, but bringing in Jackson and Marcum means bolstering the rotation in a strong way. There is no messing around with this kind of talent. They are better than everyone other than the 2012 Scott Diamond and glimpses of Scott Baker. The cost to add both is not bad at all and, again, this team costs just as much as the planned 2012 Twins team. In part two I will address the pitching staff in detail.

Also, when Buxton was in town for BP, why the hell didn't they have those two race!?

To clarify, I meant long term as in past 2014. I mean if Hicks and Arcia are mlb-ready by then, would anyone seriously consider playing Revere ahead of those two or Willingham? I am not saying I don't value Revere as a Juan Pierre with much better defense. I am saying, however, that the Twins have similarly capable OF defenders who are going to be all-around better batters.

Using platoons and managing the bullpen like that are fairly obvious tactics for a manager. Not sure why the Twins' manager doesn't understand that.

Very interesting. I cannot imagine that Ben Revere is in the long-term plans for the Twins. He shouldn't be given that Hicks, Arcia, and Benson are better by 2014 and then Roberts, Kepler, and Morales. Then Adam Walker . . . As I made clear in a blog post, the OF depth is there and these guys need to be dealt.

Not to be a wet blanket, but now my blueprint is going to involve trading no one.​

Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick. Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG): 1 YR Deals: Matt Capps, 6, -0.1 Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3 Ryan Madson, 6, 0 Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8 Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5 Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2 Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4 Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2 Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3 Multi-YR Deals: Heath Bell, 6, 0.4 Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1 Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7 Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4 The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case. This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps. For what it's worth, in my 2012 blueprint I had wanted the Twins to sign both Broxton and Dotel for a combined $8 million . . .

Good analysis and Hunter really did bounce back this season when he could have continued to decline.

I would go with a two year deal for around $4.5 million ($1.75/2.75). By 2015, if the Twins still need Jared Burton, then there will have been a breakdown with a whole number of relief prospects, so let's just hope there is no need for that.

There is just no way they bring him back. No way.

Haha, nice. Probably fairly accurate.

Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them. With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench. What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury: Denard Span Ben Revere Joe Mauer Josh Willingham Justin Morneau Trevor Plouffe Ryan Doumit Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Chris Parmelee Jamey Carroll Darin Mastroianni Chris Herrmann Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle) Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this below) Cole DeVries Tyler Robertson Deolis Guerra Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $97 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as the 2012 team. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight. My 2013 roster removes the dead weight and adds two very good pitchers. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he has a 3.77 ERA and has pitcher near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year. The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time. Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million. With regard to the bullpen, I include Guerra because he is out of options. Anthony Slama would be next in line if the Twins think Guerra would clear waivers since he clearly needs more time in Rochester. If Fien falters, or there is an injury Slama would be the guy to call on. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. The bench is meant to be a return to the "Thome bench." This means that the Twins would have either a good replacement already up with the team in case of injury or one good-great bat on the bench for every single game (pinch hitting for Florimon, Dozier, or possibly Revere. As it turns out, Chris Parmelee appears to be the odd man out for the first several games of the season, but he can be worked into the rotation to give optimal rest for six other guys, especially Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham. I still prefer a Willingham-Revere positional flip, but this would still work even if tey stayed where they are right now. Jamey Carroll might end up being the starter somewhere (I would say SS), but if not that just means he is a late-inning replacement and a backup at 3B, SS, and 2B. I realize that putting Chris Herrmann on this roster flies in the face with what I have said about AA and AAA, but I also think that Herrmann's value for 2013 is with the Twins has Doumit-lite, certainly getting a chance to take over Doumit's role as Mauer's catching partner in the future. Butera can be given a nice little salary to be the AAA catcher, working with pitchers as they come up through the system. Maybe he can be called up if there is an injury and certainly in September. But there is no reason to have him on the Twins roster. Herrmann, in my view, belonged in AAA by mid-season 2012 at the latest anyway. He also adds LF depth (and likely can adapt to RF and even 1B). Mastroianni would return in his role as a backup for all three OF positions and a speedster on the bases. It might not be a bad idea to also get him 2B time in emergency situations. Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and Evan Bigley would be the Rochester OF/DH, with perhaps Tosoni or Bigley trying out at 1B. Eduardo Escobar and Chris Colabello would be the other players at Rochester who could factor into the 2013 Twins roster.

Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them. With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench. What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury: Denard Span Ben Revere Joe Mauer Josh Willingham Justin Morneau Trevor Plouffe Ryan Doumit Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Chris Parmelee Jamey Carroll Darin Mastroianni Chris Herrmann Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle) Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this below) Cole DeVries Tyler Robertson Deolis Guerra Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $97 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as the 2012 team. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight. My 2013 roster removes the dead weight and adds two very good pitchers. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he has a 3.77 ERA and has pitcher near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year. The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time. Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million. With regard to the bullpen, I include Guerra because he is out of options. Anthony Slama would be next in line if the Twins think Guerra would clear waivers since he clearly needs more time in Rochester. If Fien falters, or there is an injury Slama would be the guy to call on. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. The bench is meant to be a return to the "Thome bench." This means that the Twins would have either a good replacement already up with the team in case of injury or one good-great bat on the bench for every single game (pinch hitting for Florimon, Dozier, or possibly Revere. As it turns out, Chris Parmelee appears to be the odd man out for the first several games of the season, but he can be worked into the rotation to give optimal rest for six other guys, especially Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham. I still prefer a Willingham-Revere positional flip, but this would still work even if tey stayed where they are right now. Jamey Carroll might end up being the starter somewhere (I would say SS), but if not that just means he is a late-inning replacement and a backup at 3B, SS, and 2B. I realize that putting Chris Herrmann on this roster flies in the face with what I have said about AA and AAA, but I also think that Herrmann's value for 2013 is with the Twins has Doumit-lite, certainly getting a chance to take over Doumit's role as Mauer's catching partner in the future. Butera can be given a nice little salary to be the AAA catcher, working with pitchers as they come up through the system. Maybe he can be called up if there is an injury and certainly in September. But there is no reason to have him on the Twins roster. Herrmann, in my view, belonged in AAA by mid-season 2012 at the latest anyway. He also adds LF depth (and likely can adapt to RF and even 1B). Mastroianni would return in his role as a backup for all three OF positions and a speedster on the bases. It might not be a bad idea to also get him 2B time in emergency situations. Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and Evan Bigley would be the Rochester OF/DH, with perhaps Tosoni or Bigley trying out at 1B. Eduardo Escobar and Chris Colabello would be the other players at Rochester who could factor into the 2013 Twins roster.

I am not sure why he lost favor at SS. He was good enough there. I think his role is utility, and we should hope so, because that likely means that Dozier and Florimon have been successful in the middle infield. Carroll filling in for injured players and backing up all three of those infield spots will get him enough playing time to keep his value high, but probably keep his PAs in the 300-350 range.

Yeah that is the underlying issue. Players WOULD get paid substantially more if they signed one year contracts. Pujols has four seasons over 1.100 OPS. I would say that the Fangraphs issue has more to do with treating things on a yearly basis.

Ooh and he cites Fangraphs for Mauer's value . . . that apparently is a no-no around here . . .

Good article. Does this mean that the rest of the civilized Twins world will finally realize that OBP is the most important part of the game and that Moneyball wasn't propaganda?

With Slama weeping on his shoulder. Agreed all around!

Adding those two pitchers, not trading anyone in the offseason, re-signing Baker for a few million + incentives, paying arb to everyone except for Casilla, and the payroll basically doesn't change from 2012.

For naysayers on spending say $60 million over three years for Jackson and Marcum: It's a risk, but so was trotting out Pavano-Baker-Liriano-Blackburn-Marquis this year. What was that cost? Hint: more than $20 million. And it sucked. Jackson and Marcum at same cost have the potential to be very, very good at 1-2 in the rotation. And Blackburn and Morneau contracts expire after 2013 (and together cost almost $20 million themselves!). If the naysaying is merely based on the fact that the Twins are unlikely to do it, that's fine. They would be stupid not to do it if they want to compete in the next three years and have those two in the rotation for the 2015 season when hopefully the youth movement comes in force.

I don't mean to pollute the waters any more, but it IS true that Ben Revere and Chris Parmelee are just not likely in the long term starting plans. The Twins have Hicks, Arcia, and Benson on the one hand, and the likes of Miguel Sano and Travis Harrison on the other (both could likely be moved to 1B), and Kennys Vargas for 1B/DH. One option would be to keep the productive Span AND Morneau until they are truly replaced by the NEXT group, not by the current group. Meanwhile, 2013 is a showcase of Revere and Parmelee. Just throwing another idea out there . . . Having 7 guys for 6 lineup spots in 2013 doesn't bother me and that certainly is better bench depth than simply Butera, Mastro, Caroll, Escobar, Carson . . .