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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    Reading this, it really does seem like the Twins structure is a "good old boy's club" and there are a lot of coaches and managers who are not doing their work. It truly is an organization that (until recently) one could not get fired from. Berrios isn't the first person who came up from the majors without being ready, but this is the first deep dive I have seen into the problems with a player's development that were not addressed.
  2. Doomtints
    "FIxing" Berrios implies something is broken with him. He's young, not broken. Look at how long it took Santana and Viola to perform at expectations. With Viola, the "fix" was to let him play. With Santana, the "fix" was to use him out of the bullpen. I don't know if this coaching staff is smart enough to make any type of decision one way or the other. Thus, Berrios will probably get bounced around. Twins management is very impatient.
  3. Doomtints
    There are only 7 catchers in the entire league paid more than Suzuki. Is Ramos in the top 7 catchers in the league? Ramos is a top 3 catcher this year (a contract year, I might add), but in previous years he was not a top 7 catcher. Some team probably will overpay him based on his 2016 performance. All I have to say to the team that will do that is ... good luck with that!
  4. Doomtints
    The Twins overpaid for Suzuki. Ramos would probably command Suzuki money, albeit for a longer contract. The Twins are already used to paying for that. But do they want Ramos (or any other catcher) on a long contract?
  5. Doomtints
    Of the systems I know about, Baseruns tends to be the furthest off and typically in the upward direction. It's been proven that BaseRuns overvalues events when the team produces between .500 and .800 OBP, which I am guessing happens when a team has any decisive win. Fangraph's description of what BaseRuns is doing is pretty goofy, so ignore what's on that page. I have my own system which I will share sometime. It shows the Twins are a *little* underperforming but it's not by much.
  6. Doomtints
    All true. The sample size is still too small on Kepler to even bother trying to predict what he will do. It doesn't look to me like his performance is going to drop through the floor, but we're all just going with our gut feelings on this one. To his credit, he spent an awful lot of time in the minors. He has a better chance of being a known quantity now than Twins fan are used to out of a rookie, so I understand why people would be skeptical. We have seen a lot of guys play well for a month and then never play well again.
  7. Doomtints
    If you have a guy who can defend well in the middle of the field, you don't move him to third, especially if he can hit too. Having good bats in the middle of the infield and at catcher are the two toughest things to do.
  8. Doomtints
    I'm guessing that with Ryan gone the Twins won't be selling any more prospects to overseas teams for pocket change.
  9. Doomtints
    Mauer's collision risk goes up if he were to play 3rd. Not gonna happen.
  10. Doomtints
    Sensible moves.
  11. Doomtints
    At some point last offseason I dd a regression analysis on runs scored by all teams last year. The result was (and I'm going by memory here) although the Twins finished something like 10th in offense last year, in a normal season that production would have been something like 15th. This meant that the Twins needed to vastly improve their offense in 2016 just to stay the same as they were in 2015. The Twins didn't do this. They became a younger team almost from top to bottom offensively and, as younger teams will do, they had a very slow start. Ryan was smart in seeing the potential of these players (as evidenced by their improvements over time) but he was dead wrong about them being ready and about who was ready. (Kepler was ready but wasn't starting, Buxton wasn't ready and was starting, etc.) The point is, the Twins couldn't roll with the same couple of core guys, add more rookies, and then expect to come out of the gate with a good offense. The pitching is a tougher nut to crack because bad guys are blocking young guys, bad guys are blocking trades and free agents, and on top of that if you get rid of the bad guys for the young guys the young guys will all have adjustment periods. The pitching was mismanaged terribly and it will take a new GM a lot of creativity, a lot of money, and probably a lot of time to fix it.
  12. Doomtints
    "Sink or Swim" is a terrible plan for a baseball player. If I were GM and someone recommended this approach for a player, I would probably fire the person. Help the kids develop or get the heck out of the sport.
  13. Doomtints
    Nah. What infielders do on offense has no relation to the infield defense. IF defense is extremely important. This is why players who hit 30 home runs end up being outfielders or first basemen, teams find a way to get them into the lineup in spite of their lack of defensive ability. Dozier is "good enough" defensively but Sano should not be out there. Sano is a one tool player who should be DHing unless he turns into Harmon Killebrew. In Killebrew's MVP season, he was pulled for a defensive replacement in something like 80 games, and the Twins won something like 75 of those games. Until Sano hits like that, DH the kid.
  14. Doomtints
    Didn't Ryan try this five years ago? Doesn't seem like it worked.
  15. Doomtints
    Dozier isn't good defensively. Total Zone, which makes some assumptions, pegged Dozier as a good defender when Florimon was standing next to him. Since Florimon has been gone, Total Zone has not liked Dozier's defense. UZR has *never* liked Dozier's defense. Move Dozier to 3rd.
  16. Doomtints
    With Polanco's arrival, Plouffe is expendable. However, the Twins are making the mistake of giving Polanco reps at 3rd. He is likely a defensive upgrade over Dozier. Give Dozier the reps at 3rd. This means that the circus we watched as the Twins tried everything they could to get Sano off of DH was for naught. He should DH. This means Park probably needs to find a new home. This isn't tragic, the Twins could probably get a good prospect for Park.
  17. Doomtints
    I suspect the plan was to bring back Suzuki next year but at a lower salary. Of course, a new GM may have other ideas. I don't think the ERA of the pitching staff changes the fact that a new catcher would have a learning curve for what to expect from them.
  18. Doomtints
    I don't know where the assumption was made that Suzuki is the only person in the Twins organization who could mentor a new catcher, but obviously that's wrong. However, Suzuki is the guy who knows the current Twins pitchers the best. Any new catcher would be smart to listen to him. When it comes to advice on throwing out runners, fielding bunts, or hitting, there are others on the team and on the coaching staff who can help with fundamentals like that. As for pitch framing, I'm guessing that faking out the umpire is a skill that takes time to develop and is probably is not coached.
  19. Doomtints
    Forever. Mentoring is a process, not an event. A young catcher should have questions for years, though there would be fewer questions as time goes on.
  20. Doomtints
    A similar conversation comes up for Buxton whenever he plays well for a week or so in the minors. I grade the OP a B- for choosing an unexpected player with which to launch the conversation. But I can't give a higher grade because, well, come on.
  21. Doomtints
    Half of the mentoring battle is having a receptive person to mentor, as any parent of a teenager can attest.
  22. Doomtints
    Murphy looked like he could put on his own jockstrap before he came to the Twins. Since being a Twin he has looked so terrible that it seems possible that he will never be able to play in the majors ever again. There's no way Suzuki alone screwed him up that much. Maybe Murphy is injured, maybe he's down about the trade, maybe he wasn't clicking with the Twins players or management. Saying this is Suzuki's fault is just weird. Ultimately this is on Murphy, no one else can make him play well except him.
  23. Doomtints
    The Twins had some good pitching after Viola. I would say the pitching dried up after Ryan came in (as did a lot of other things). You are right when you say that there wasn't much before Viola, though. I did not read any of these "History of the Twins" articles (yes I should) but one thing worth bringing up is that the younger Griffith was great at fielding elite infield defenses. If you look at the best defenders in Twins history, there has been a drop off since the late 80s. The 70s Twins were not particularly exciting because defense isn't exciting, but they also were not the doormats that many people think they were. Griffith was a little smarter at fielding a team on the cheap than the next Twins GM who tried (though yes in both instances a championship was out of the question).
  24. Doomtints
    Whenever someone throws around the "tools" phrase it's best to be skeptical. What's interesting is that when people start saying a prospect has 5 tools, he is always anointed as being the next superstar. You only need one tool to be a star -- you need to be able to shred the ball with your bat. Speed and defense are nice, but if you can't hit MLB pitching they don't matter. We saw this same routine with Hicks.
  25. Doomtints
    He's in if considered a catcher by the voters. But that might be a tough sell. But the good news is he's not far away from the C + 1B combination, needing only another 4 WAR. Unfortunately I don't think the voters look at JAWS to sway their decisions, and the other metrics are a bit further away. But as we have discussed, I would be surprised if Mauer is losing sleep over it.
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