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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I would probably put Buxton #1, given the high floor he has. I don't see his defense or speed going away. So even if he hits .250, 10 HR, he is going to give you plus defense in CF and swipe 40-50 bags. That is still a pretty good CF. Sano, worst case could end up being a DH type that hits .250 with power and strikes out a lot. I think the CF trumps the DH in that scenario. On the ceiling side, Buxton is a .280-.290, 20 HR, 15 3B, 50-60 SB player who plays really good defense at a premium position. I would probably rate that better than Sano, even if he sticks at 3B and hits .260 with 30 HR a year. It is probably unlikely that he will ever be a plus defender.
  2. tobi0040
    The only other comment I have is, on what basis do you have Sano ahead of Kris Bryant? His stats are comical .327/.428/.666/1.095. 52 HR in 174 games. I know he was 22 last year versus Sano at 21. They have effectively the same k rate in the minors, Bryant looks like he will hit for a higher averaage, as most concede Sano may end up being a .260 or so hitter in the big leagues.
  3. tobi0040
    I guess it comes down to if last seasons numbers for Buxton were a huge red flag, showcasing a guy that can't hit. Or a throwaway year in which virtually every at bat was effectively a rehab type situation where he had not seen a pitch in weeks, then played 4-6 games and had another injury. I guess I am curious why the write up had no mention of 2013? It seems to me that a healthy player that played 125 games and had 575 AB's and put up the following line has the makings of a good hitter, certainly answered the question about whether he has the skills to be a league average hitter: .334/.424/.520/.944 12 HR, 18 3B, 19 2B and 55 SB to boot. The other omission with regards to Buxton is defense (for example, Polanco's defense was talked about). By any scouting report, Buxton will be a plus defender, both with his range, glove, and arm.
  4. tobi0040
    You are definitely higher on Minier and Diaz than anyone else I have seen. I love the optimism and I don't have a strong opinion. The interesting thing I found is the log-jam the Twins could have if these guys turn out. We already have a questionable glove in LF (Arcia) and potentially another questionable glove soon at 3B who may need another home. Granted these guys may not be up until Mauer's deal is done or close to it....but I see a Jeter-esque end to Mauer's career.
  5. tobi0040
    The isssue with Berrios for me is they won't have him up here and his clock starting unless he sticks. So a spot start or something maybe if he is lights out and the need arises. I suppose after the deadline if a spot is open, then maybe.
  6. tobi0040
    I would put the odds of Meyer breaking camp as a starter at more than 10%. Not much though. Outside of Terry making one comment about a year ago about how the Braves and Cards brought up Medlen and/or Wacha, have the Twins made any comments about Meyer starting in the pen?
  7. tobi0040
    Thanks for the info.
  8. tobi0040
    So I can mail down baseballs or pictures and get them autographed during spring training?
  9. tobi0040
    I would probably flip Meyer and Gordon. Good list, lots of potential here!
  10. tobi0040
    I like the ring of "Pending free agent Mike Pelfrey $5.5 million"
  11. tobi0040
    Yeah, I can't argue with any of this. I don't think that Torii will have much sway in whether or not Buxton, Rosario, or Hicks become good MLB players. But I do believe he is here for these guys and without Hicks, probably would not be here at all. As far as what will happen, the Twins will win more games next year than they have in any of the last four (low bar, I know). But regardless, Torii will get an outsized share of that credit. From the players, media, and coaches alike.
  12. tobi0040
    I agree with you. That should have been the plan. But the Twins took the let spend $10.5M on Torii to motivate him path. No way HIcks starts in AAA.
  13. tobi0040
    The Twins could basically have the following player locked up, a prety good, cheap core. Hughes at 9-13M a year for the next five years Ervin at $13M a year for the next four Dozier for the next six years at $40M or so Perkins for the next 3-4 years at $6M a year Then 4-6 cost controlled years for: Meyer, Buxton, Sano, Gibson, Vargas, Berrios, Burdi, Reed, Rosario, May, etc. If 70% of the prospects come through, it would seem like we would have a talented team with payroll flexibility (even with Mauer). Thiink about an all star caliber pitcher (Hughes) through his prime for $58M. An all star caliber 2B in his prime for $40M. And potentially a really good pitcher through ages 25-31 for about $30-40M (Meyer).
  14. tobi0040
    As Brock pointed out, the OPS did not swing much from the first half to the second and the AB's were not close to 50/50. I think he has to regress a ton to be an average 2B.
  15. tobi0040
    That is the plan I would go with. If he is hitting .220 with no power by June, call a duck a duck and make him a good bench option.
  16. tobi0040
    I completely agree. Dozier was 3rd in OPS among 2B. #1 is a guy named Cano, under contract for $240M. #2 was a young player that won a batting title, hit 47 doubles, and stole 56 bases. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/2b/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true
  17. tobi0040
    By that logic, no player in the league would have a good contract. Cut Mike Trout's numbers in half. 18 HR and 8 SB. A .287 average. His contract looks terrible. Taken to the other extreme, double Dozier's first half and he has 36 HR and 32 SB. At the end of the day, Dozier has averaged about an OPS of .740 the last two years, even with the low average. That is a really, really good 2B. The Twins could give him a 6 year deal and by my count only buy out two free agent years. So rookie, Arb x 3, and FA x 2 would likely not be a huge outlay. Something in the $40-45M range. Another very reasonable deal for a good core player on a good team, like Hughes.
  18. tobi0040
    I am not too caught up in the batting average. The 9 WAR over the last two years is more telling. I think the slugging, HR, SB, and defense at 2B provides a ton of value.
  19. tobi0040
    I wonder if this long term view also applies to Brian Dozier.
  20. tobi0040
    His career ERA before last year was 4.10 if you exclude the new Yankee stadium. So that would seem about the floor for me. Tons of upside here. Not much risk, outside the risk of a pitcher being hurt which comes alone with every deal.
  21. tobi0040
    I like the deal, had we waited a year and he pitched well, 3-42 would not have happened. He would have been staring at $80-100M deal a year from then. Even if he throws up a 4.00 ERA next year, 3-42 seems a little light.
  22. tobi0040
    I agree that is what will happen. If you read the history on Hicks and switch hitting, it is telling. He hit right until he was about 11. His Dad, who did not want him to play baseball made him take up switch hitting as a means of testing his desire for the sport. I don't know about you guys, but I was always right handed. If someone forced me at 11 to start hitting from the left side I would struggle big time. I don't ever think I would be competent, it is not my natural side. Let alone ever be a competent professional from that side. For my two cents, I bet he puts up better than a .548 OPS against righties if he batted from the right side, where he hits lefties to the tune of .750. But the Twins keep forgetting to ask me.
  23. tobi0040
    I don't think the Twins believe we think the best way to add rotation talent is through free agency. I think the Nolasco and Santana signings signal that at this point in time, we don't feel like we have enough sure things in house, thus we were more or less forced to participate in free agency and add. I think it got to the point where three-four years in a row of having a terrible rotation was too much. The typical bargain bin signings to "stabalize the back-half of the rotation", i.e. Pelfrey and Correia did not pan out. And as the article alluded to, the Twins have seen some prospects really struggle (Hicks) and others get hurt (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Stewart, etc.). That probably changed the approach of we can just wait for 25 young guys to come up and claim all the roster spots.
  24. tobi0040
    As often happens, the topic of discussion veers away from exactly what the headline reads and towards something semi-related. In this case, the tone of the comments was a feeling of missing out and worry, then quickly pivoted to several suggesting the White Sox could win the division. Regarding "winning" day 1, I think we would need to define what that means. They signed/traded for the most players and certainly would win the award for the most bold moves on day 1. I just don't think that their moves were as dramatic as they were made out to be and I don't think they are favorites to win anything. Again, I would not trade positions with them.
  25. tobi0040
    My point was that the sky is not falling. I would not trade franchises with them right now.
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