tobi0040

Thanks for the info. If his fastball and change are plus, seems to me even an average hook will make him a very compelling MLB player. 6'5 lefty with velocity and two plus pitches. Those are pretty rare.

I struggle with the Boof and Meyer comp. I just looked up Boof's minor numbers, he had a career 3.94 ERA. His stuff just wasn't as good. I just think Meyer could give up 8 hits per 9 and 4 BB per 9 and that would be an issue. But a guy that gives up 10 hits per 9 and 3 BB per 9 can be promoted. We need to look at WHIP, then factor in that BB's are actually better than hits on a 1 to 1 basis, as hits can go for multiple bases and runners advance further on hits. Then also layer in the relationship between strand rates and k rates. If you do that, a slightly higher BB rate for guys like Meyer and May is not the end of the world.

I find it interesting. Nobody cares that he had 3.7 BB's per 9 in 2013. It jumps to 4.4 the next year, the equivalent of 10 additional walks across 130 IP and it becomes a huge issue. I think we have to be careful with both Meyer and May. I think the Twins are used to these command and control guys that dont' strike anyone out. Those are the types of guys that can't walk anyone. The margin for error for Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn is rather low. But when Meyer is striking out 10+ guys per 9, giving up 7.5 to 8 hits per 9, and averaging .5 HR's per 9 then the additional 10 walks need some further analysis. Guys that miss bats and rarely get squared up tend to strand runners. Please don't think I don't care about the walks at all. I just think an adjustment needs to happen and we could look at this a little differently with these types of pitchers

Well this doesn't help their chances. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12284767/victor-martinez-detroit-tigers-torn-medial-meniscus

To be fair, looking may not have taken a lot of effort. But searching for the guy that led the league in pitching over a two year period certainly was an efficient way to search through a lot of pitchers. I was going off you saying he had one plus pitch (which you said may not even be plus). Looks like other posters and even Law, who does not like him disagree (says plus fastball and change up). I just don't get the optimism about Kepler. I have found I am much less excited about him than others are and that is driving my opinions here. To me, Gonsalves is younger, has put up better numbers, and has more upside. Others disagree and that is fine. On a side note, if Gonsalves throws 95 as a starter and has a good change, he could be setting himself up as a high end reliever as a floor.

I guess what I see is a few disconnects. The guy has only one pitch, but has put up, at 18 in rookie leagues: 28 IP, .95 ERA, and 39 K. Then as a 19 year old in E-Town and Low A 65 IP, 3.02 ERA, 70 K. In total, a 10.5 K and 3.1 BB per 9. Seems like really good numbers with just one pitch. So if you start with those numbers and velocity and improve the breaking ball, it seems like he could have a higher ceiling than a #3 starter. Projecting anything of value out of Kepler certainly involves a lot of improvement upon what we have seen thus far.

His ceiling could be higher than some think. I think our scouts are too enamored with the fact that his mom was a figure skater and that we think he is athletic. My personal opinion aside, most would agree Gonsalves has a ceiling of a #1 or #2 starter. The likelihood of him reaching that obviously differs a great deal among them. Kepler will likely profile as a corner OF. So I have a tough time finding a ceiling for him as a corner OF that matches that of a top of the rotation, 6'5 lefty starter. So i have actual production and projection for Gonsalves higher, age favors Gonsalves as well. Maybe a wash if you buy the country change. The sample size is small, but I will take a good sample that is small over a 5 year, relatively mediocre sample.

I guess I don't understand why Gonsalves is behind Kepler. Gonsalves is progressing through the system a year earlier. Both have projections, but Gonsalves numbers have been dominant, whereas Kepler has had one good year in rookie ball (in just 59 games). I would argue Gonsalves has a much higher ceiling.

My 5th spot projection is May. Meyer starts in the pen. Pelfrey has to earn a spot in the pen.

I like the he wasn't fully healthy in the first half. The switch to 1B would probably impact him the most right away. The first half/second half splits others have offered provide me with some optimism.

He should make the team if he proves to be one of the best six relievers on the team. And getting something back for him should not be a factor in whether he plays or not. I have serious doubts of getting anything back, it would be a salary dump, best case. Time to get the kids some innings, both in the rotation and pen.

Wainwright, CJ Wilson, and AJ Burnett all have an inverted W and have had Tommy John. A few others that have had either elbow or shoulder issues and have an inverted W. Strasburg, Prior, Wood. Reyes. Bonderman, Marcum. Smoltz. Some come back and have good careers, some don't. But every time you have TJ you effectively miss two years. As you forecast the White Sox, I am not in a position to pencil in a 5 WAR for Sale. The only guys I have found with an inverted W and not had these issues are Gio Gonzalez and Chris Sale, although Sale has had a flexor tendon issue so I am not sure if you can count him. Certainly higher than a 3.3% ratio. Here is a pretty good article on the subject, with commentary from American Sports Medicine and Dr. Andrews, with the key here: "Problems usually begin below the waist. The most telling moment in a pitcher's delivery, for instance, is the foot strike. When the foot makes contact with the mound, the pitching arm must be up and ready to throw. A righthanded pitcher should be showing the baseball to the shortstop, a lefty to the second baseman. (Among active hurlers, Cliff Lee is a good example.) But if a pitcher's elbows come higher than his wrists and shoulders, with the ball pointing down, he's demonstrating an "inverted W" -- a sign that his sequence is off and he's fighting his own body. Such poor timing leads to arm lag, evident when the throwing elbow trails the shoulder once the shoulders square to home plate. Strasburg exhibits both problems, forcing him and others like him to rely more on the arm's relatively small muscles instead of the more massive ones in the legs and torso. Throw after throw, the shoulder and elbow are under extra stress. The higher the pitch's velocity and the worse the flaw, the more the arm suffers. And the more a pitcher throws, the worse it gets. Arm lag and improper sequencing were likely to blame for Strasburg's UCL tear, as well as for those of almost everyone else knocked out by the injury. "The timing is subtle," says the American Sports Medicine Institute's Glenn Fleisig, who has analyzed more than 2,000 pitchers and is one of the world's foremost authorities on pitching biomechanics. "It's the difference between good and great and healthy and injury-waiting-to-happen." Strasburg was probably in trouble from the get-go. He didn't rupture his UCL on one pitch with the Nationals -- even if a pitcher feels a pop on a particular pitch, his UCL was anything but pristine before the incident. Like a rope, Strasburg's UCL probably started to fray the moment he began pitching off a mound, the extra height of which can compound the stress of each pitch. It likely got worse not only because of his mechanics. Kids who throw the hardest pitch the most: They get hitters out. Famed orthopedic surgeon James Andrews, who founded ASMI in 1987, says he has seen a five- to sevenfold increase in high schoolers requiring UCL reconstruction since 2000. "The No. 1 risk factor for UCL injuries is poor mechanics," he says. "The No. 2 factor is overuse. And if you overuse with poor mechanics, you're doomed." http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7712916/tommy-john-surgery-keeps-pitchers-game-address-underlying-biomechanical-flaw-espn-magazine

I stand corrected on Kimbrell. I must have been thinking Medlen or Beachy. They pulled a list together of 10 guys with violent deliveries. Two of those have had TJ in their careers. Two have had flexor strains. Two have seen their velocity decline, Lincecum pretty early and dramatic and Neshek's at 30 went down about 6 mph. Note I am double counting on Neshek (TJ and velocity). Very limited sample size and the data available on this topic is not great and time consuming. But I stand behind Chris Sale having a higher risk of an elbow or shoulder issue relative to other pitchers in the league. That is really the point. Most of the guys with the inverted W seem to have elbow or shoulder issues throughout their careers. Look at these pitchers, see any trends? http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Examples/InvertedW.html

No doubt he is a stud. He can be worse and still really, really good. But my point is odds are he will be worse next year, so in the context of year over year analysis Sale is likely a headwind, not a tailwind.

I just don't see an appetite, on our part or other teams to go through with this transaction. With that, Mauer will be our 1B for the next four years and I think the closer he is to his career norm of an OPS of .860 versus last years .732 is a big story for turning around the Twins. For example, we are all really hopeful of Sano over Plouffe at 3B. I would bet the .128 difference between Mauer's career numbers and his 2014 is greater than the difference between Sano and 2014 Plouffe (.751 OPS). That puts Sano at .879 at a break-even.

Lots of theories in here. Everyone seems to have one of Joe. My eye test is that Joe seems to pull balls on the ground and go the other way more on line drives. Seems like to me the shifts in the OF and INF took away hits from him. The data Parker supplied, balls getting through the right side of the infield and BA on line drives to the OF seem to support this. If true, Joe would need to be a little less predictable. If we needed anyone on our team to make a hitting adjustment with the entire off-season to do it, I would pick Joe Mauer.

The White Sox always seem to under-perform their expectations. I remember when they traded for Jake Peavy and we were going to be in trouble. Same with Adam Dunn. Same with Bartolo Colon. Every time they make a move they are the AL central favorites it seems. Last year they won three more games than us, their pythag was actually 4 wins behind us and that was with 13 WAR out of Abreu, Sale, and Quintana. They were 4th in the central in runs, last in OBP and those were with really good production from Abreu, who based off the year 2-3 drop offs of Puig and Cespedes may not happen again. I realize this is a small sample size, but when pitchers go from no tape on a guy to a years worth, it makes sense. I have them ahead of the Twins this year, but I am not overly concerned about them long term.

I will take the over on his 2.17 ERA from last year.

True, but some players are riskier than others. Here is a for instance, bleacher ran a list of pitchers whose mechanics make them a "ticking time bomb". This was made in May, 2012. Of the ten pitchers named, here are a few that have already ran into issues: Jason Motte - TJ in 2013 Kimbrell - TJ later in 2012 after the list Pat Neshek - Actually had TJ in 2009, velocity has never come back. Twins gave up on him Kevin Herrera - Missed some time due a flexor tendon sprain Chris Sale - Missed time due to a flexor tendon spain Tim Lincecum - His velocity dipped quite a bit at a very early age, almost a 4 mph dip in his fastball between his age 24 and age 28 seasons. 6 of the 10 listed have had some sort of issues in just 2.5 seasons since the list was created. Marmol is on the list and probably hasn't pitched enough to get hurt. Seems like a higher rate than the general pitching population As a comparison, only 29 pitchers between all the minor leagues and major leagues had Tommy John in 2014 (18 MLB pitchers) and that was the worst on record. If each team uses, say 18 pitchers a year, I get a rate of 3.3% per year (18 / 540). Much lower than this 22% rate over 2.5 years. Mechanics and velocity play a huge role. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1179302-10-mlb-pitchers-whose-mechanics-are-a-ticking-time-bomb-to-serious-injury http://mlbreports.com/tj-surgery/

If their top three pitchers have seasons that look at all like the last few, they will be in the mix. If Rodon comes up and pitches well they have to be the favorites. The risk that nobody seems to be talking about is the health of Chris Sale. I think we are all taking his 5 WAR every year for granted. He missed 14 games the last two years, but it is the delivery and his elbow that I would be mosted concerned about. Guys that have an inverted W, especially on skinny frames do not have history on their side. Add in the sidearm and I am going to get real technical here, but violent flingy motion (VFM) and it does not look sustainable to me. He cut down on sliders dramatically last year, but he has thrown 2,700 of them in five professional years, up near 88-89 mph. Prior to this year, he has thrown over 30% sliders. If he is hurt, you start with a team that had 73 wins, then subtract 5. In that scenario 82 wins seems rosy.

spy, you can throw in Andrew miller and Cameron maybin in there as well.

Agreed. They have an owner willing to lose $30M a year on the team. A farm is not as important in that environment.

The Royals scored 27 more runs than they gave up last year. If Volquez puts up his career average of a 4.44 ERA instead of the 3.21 Shields had last year his 227 IP....that +27 run differential goes to -4. And that is penciling in repeats for Holland 1.44, Herrera 1.41, and Davis 1.00.

Valid point, but Shields is a year older and his pay is likely to be closer to $20M a year.

It would not break my heart to see them give Shields a 5 year deal.