tobi0040
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Everything posted by tobi0040
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Most teams didn't have Ponder as a first rounder and we took him at 11 or 12. In this draft you have a ton of pitchers and a few short stops in the top 10. Off topic......My neighbor kept pointing out Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. So we looked at 25 years worth of data. A total of five QB's in rounds 2 or 3 were starting QB's for more than 5 years. Those two, and Favre, Plummer, and Brees. The number drafted was about 60 (8%). Of all the QB's taken in the top 10, the success rate was 50% during the same time period. Just because something has happened before, does not make it likely. Circling back to the Twins, I think we have less than an 8% chance of finding our SS through waiver pick ups. Almost none hit the FA market. The trend seems to be to sign these guys well before they hit the market, same with good young starting pitchers. When they become free agents, you get the chance to spend $200M on Max Scherzer, which we are not going to do. My point is we can't ignore these trends.
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Which one of his legs was amputated?
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You are right. I find it odd that a 2.96 ERA in his first year would hurt his value. Or that 6+ guys would overtake him.
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While I doubt we have totally ruled that many guys out at this point. If this is accurate it is likely Aiken, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede, Jackson, Gatewood, and Turner. Here is a projection from March 23rd, 2013 for the 2013 draft. Frazier #1, he went 5th. Denny #4, he went in the 3rd round and signed. Gray #6, he went #3. Kohl # 9, he went #4. Manaea #12, he went 34th. It is early. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/3/23/4139314/2013-mlb-mock-draft-version-one
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Go to "20 by team" and pick the Twins. He is 14th overall, 7th pitcher. When the Twins give a kid like Santana a leash like they gave Lexi Casilla , Punto, or Florimon, I will start believing offense out of the short stop is a priority. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/
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I will be very surprised if we take anything other than a starting pitcher or SS. If we feel a guy is there that is hands down a better talent, we will take him. But if we grade out an OF slightly higher than a pitcher or SS, I think we take the SP or SS and I think that is the right approach. Look at the Vikings. We don't have a QB. You need a QB to win. They almost never hit the FA market and if they do, 12-15 teams are after him. So if we grade out an LB slightly higher, should we take the LB? Seems crazy to me. Starting pitching and QB's are similar.
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With a filter on players with 400 or more AB's last year, a .735 OPS was 34th among all OF. 7-8 of those ahead are primarily CF. So a middle of the pack corner OF at 21-22. Hardly "not proving himself at the MLB level". The guy hit 24 HR between MLB and AAA.
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I guess I was wrong about how far Aiken has come. But moving from 9 to 2 or so in a month or two, and Rodon going from absolutely without question 1-1 to maybe not in the same time frame is my point. Saying the top four are set right now is a bit early. Last year Gray made a huge leap up after April 9th and Mannea went from top 5 to out of the first round. The point of the fantasy comment was we factor in position, as the difference between the first SS and 15th SS is huge, whereas the difference between the 1st and 15th corner OF is not the same.
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Article: Why is Joe Mauer Such a Lightning Rod?
tobi0040 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think talent outweighs leadership almost all the time, especially in baseball. 95% of this game is batter versus pitcher, man versus man. Mauer could give a great Herb Brooks like speech to Pedro Florimon before his at bat, but when he stands in the box he is going to strike out 25% of the time either way. -
MLB had him at 14 overall and our 7th best pitcher. Either way, I think the Twins need to stop tinkering with this position and sign or trade for an actual answer here. It is unlikely that the answer is in our system, in my opinion. I am not saying that I would not want to see Santana given a ton of reps and I am one that would put up with a few more errors or few extra balls getting through in exchange for a guy that will get 30-40 more hits with additional extra base hits (Santana). But I don't see the Twins putting up with any inconsistency defensively at this position.
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Article: Why is Joe Mauer Such a Lightning Rod?
tobi0040 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You hear this argument a lot. I think a caveat needs to be applied. Joe was not a free agent when he signed that deal. He had one year left. If he waited until free agency, he would have entered in a year in which he came off a .327, .871 OPS, 9 HR line instead of .365, 1.031 OPS, 28 HR. So honestly, I don't think he would have received a deal that went out 9 years at $23M a year. I think a ton of the criticism about Joe is unfair. I am just pointing out the "why". -
Article: Why is Joe Mauer Such a Lightning Rod?
tobi0040 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Here is my personal opinion, which has been reinforced by many of my friends beliefs. Mauer was sold to us as this down to earth kid. A genuine nice guy. He was never going to need a gazillion dollars. His biggest fan, Charley Walters wrote that he was so conservative that he invested his $5M signing bonus and could live off that forever. So after his rookie deal, and after another $33M in his second deal. I think many, including myself were surprised that demanded so much money in his third contract. It is not his fault that the team through that much money at him. But after he signed that deal he comes out and says he wants to win here. While ownership knew they didn't have a 35 HR a year guy when they signed that deal, Mauer too knew that this deal would reduce the talent around him. I am not disputing that he is a nice guy or anything. But I think it comes back to the contract. What the media sold was a down to earth, humble, frugal hometown kid. And of course a sinking ship needs a scapegoat. On the field, I completely agree with you that we should be sitting back and enjoying a player that does not come around often. -
Pushing Florimon has to be the objective. No way our scouts looked at Nunez and thought Gardy would put up with his defense. If you take a step back, this is really a silly, very short-sighted move. First, trading for Nunez is not going to make Pedro an MLB quality hitter. Nothing will. Second, in a year in which we are not going to compete, trading your 5th or 6th best pitching prospect for a guy that you think has a snowballs chance at pushing a below average SS....is just foolish. I get that we may have doubts about MS, but his ERA was a full run lower than Berrios last year. Is it crazy to think that he may not pan out as a 5th starter or reliever at some point? I have also heard the logic here that well we got him for Drew so who cares.....just because we fleeced the Dodgers doesn't mean we should turn around and give the guy away.
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If you remove his 2.2 and 4 IP outings in which he gave up 16 ER and his best two, which were two 7 IP, scoreless frames...his ERA goes from 4.51 to 4.15.
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The other difference could be, drafting in the 20's versus top 5. Look at Buxton, he has owned every league thus far. Of course you are going to move him. Garza was probably the exception at 25, but he moved because he was ripping it up too.
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It is way too early to say the draft is set. Aiken was a borderline first rounder and moved to the top 5 in about a month. I find it funny, most are dead set on BPA. Yet if we went into a fantasy football draft we would all load up on RB's in the first two rounds. It is really the opposite principle.
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May had two very bad starts last year that mask a very good year. If you take out those 5 ip, 16 er, and 8 bb you are left with very encouraging numbers. A 3.75 era, 3bb per 9, and over a k an inning. Of course any pitchers numbers would improve if you remove his worst two starts, but I don't know of any that had only 2 of 28 starts had as big of an impact. Maybe we should look at medians as well. He had 0, 1, or 2 er in 14 of his 28 starts. He had three additional starts with 3 ER, two of those were quality starts and the other missed by one out.
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Maybe a possibility. But Terry Ryan does not seem likely to move a pitching prospect for utility infield depth. MS had a sub 3.00 era and was by any count the 5th to 7th best pitching prospect in our system.
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Rodon Aiken Kolek Hoffman Beede Turner/Gatewood I put Beede lower than most. Questions of his control worry me a bit. I would take the flamethrower without control questions over the one with, even if I am taking a rightly over a lefty.
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It is an "obvious fact" that Sano was never drafted. That is why I said "here is a list of players drafted or signed". I understand we have players that line up between the 3B and 2B defensively in our minor league system. If you read the post you would have noticed I was predicting they would not stay there. Every current prospect has a limitation or question mark about them and I could see a scenario where none ends up making it to the big leagues for an extended period of time. That was the point of the comment. Look at Plouffe, he saw a majority of his reps at SS all the way through AAA before being moved.
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Arcia had a .735 OPS in his 21-22 season. I think he was 3rd on the team.
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I was taking your we are not loaded in the OF and running with it! We will have to disagree on the OF depth. Seems to me if we have 5-7 really talented guys, even some that have questions....we should be able to find 3. One is a lock in my eyes. This is also an easy position to fill on the FA market relative to SP or SS. If we agree that Buxton is a near lock. We need Hicks to never figure it out, he is 23. Arcia to not improve defensively to at least be somewhere near average. Rosario never comes back or forgets how to hit when he does. Sano sticks at 3B. Plouffe can't justify a corner OF spot. Harrison can't hit his way into a corner OF spot (Mauer at 1B, Sano at 3B). Kepler does not pan out, etc. We don't ever move Mauer off 1B. if just two of those things don't happen, we should have adequte OF depth.
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Couple of points. In addition to Didi, he Reds gave up Drew Stubbs. He was coming off a .680 OPS and 100 SB over the previous 3 years and was and is a starting CF. Choo was a rental. And Bauer while highly ranked, refused to tinker with his delivery, which the D-Backs demanded and he refused. These things were all factors in this complicated trade, alone with 6 other players being involved. Since the trade, Bauer has 33 IP at the big show with a 5.67 ERA. Last year he had a 4.15 ERA in AAA. Maybe not tinkering with his delivery has hurt his results? Lastly, I think you mean top five prospect for a team. Not a top five overall prospect. By which I would say that each teams top five prospects are not all created equally. So a package that starts around our say 7th or 8th best prospect would not be absurd. Trevor May was the Phillies top prospect and I think he slotted in at 7 or 8 immediately after the trade.
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I think the trade comp is difficult. The trade involved 9 players and 3 teams. So to say Didi for Bauer or Choo is not exactly accurate. Also, Bauer was and is a huge head case the D-Backs clearly factored into their trade. And Choo was a one year rental who was going to hit free agency as a Boras client. I do agree that trades on the chat boards are easier than reality, but it seems to me the Twins could do a better job of finding teams with depth in areas we don't have any, and vice versa.
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I guess we have to disagree over the definition of loaded. By my count, here is what we have. On the big league club, we have a former top 40 prospect in Hicks. And a 22 year old who had a .735 OPS between his ages 21-22. We have the #1 or #2 overall minor league system in baseball. The #1 prospect we have is an OF. The number 2 prospect, could end up in the OF. #7 (Rosario) is almost a lock to end up in the OF. #12 (Harrison) will likely end up there. #14 and #15 (Walker and Kelpler) are OF. AND this is the easiest position to find free agents. So I think you must really, really be high on Jackson to pick him over an arm like Kolek, who is going to throw upper 90's and where a replacement is a lot harder to find. Or an SS like Turner or Gatewood. I would argue something like Rosario/Hicks in LF and one of these guys at SS would be a better alternative to Pedro/Escobar/Punto/Casilla/Bartlett and Jackson. Or Kolek/and one of the OF over Jackson/Pelfrey type.