tobi0040

I am going to attempt to compare the two players, using Kurt Suzuki as our baseline. He is the starting catcher right now and as I look into our system, I don’t see anyone who will likely be meaningfully better than him. Last year Suzuki had 470 AB with an OPS of .610 (which is actually better than his 2016 thus far). He had 136 total bases and 29 BB’s, so I am using a number of 165. He hit .240. I will use an offensive comp of Christian Yelich. He had 476 AB with an OPS of .782 in 2015. 198 TB and 47 BB’s (245 total). He hit .300 and was on base 36.6% of the time. So the offensive edge would be 80 additional bases a year. 25% more hits, i.e. increase in times advancing or driving in runners as well as being knocked in himself. Yelich did score 27 more runs (although I get that is dependent upon other people). The 63 he put up actually seems pretty low given his offensive numbers. He scored 93 times in 2014 with a lower OPS albeit 90 more AB’s. That seems like a really huge increase in offense. An edge in pitch framing, “managing the pitchers”, throwing out runners, and passed balls would seem very difficult to prove out an offset to the offensive numbers. Especially when the incumbent is not particularly good at a few of these things to begin with. All I would simply ask out of the Twins is running some similar and obviously more detailed analysis. For all I know Goin’s team has, but then I would ask that the FO actually read and consider it. The A's likely figured that out with Vogt, he had an OPS of .783 last year and over 440 AB's was worth 3.1 wins offensively.

It sure looks like Jay has been able to make the transition to the rotation and he certainly has the stuff. Looks like a solid pick. On a side note, how does a guy give up 3 ER over 32 IP and lose two games?

It is quite possible that Vargas has little to no value. He has no position flexibility and his offensive numbers (95 OPS + in big leagues and .731 OPS at AAA this year) don't justify a DH spot.

Yea. Just not sure we lose much if we swap Kurt and Buxton. Better than AAA though

I almost wonder if they should move him up a spot or two, just for psychology. When he sees his name #9, don't you think he thinks he is the worst hitter in the lineup?

Jimbo, I was just pointing out the lack of planning all over. Mauer obviously needed to move away from catcher and they did nothing about it. Now we have Kurt. It was as if they just figured out this year that Sano and Plouffe both play 3b. The pen. I need to stop now.

Rincon is 2005 and Ervin in 2015 are the only Twins MLB players to fail a test that I can remember. I have no illusions that we have none, but our HR totals had to be well under the league average during that time. I am guessing Colabello picked up the habit after he left

It won't let me edit on mobile. So to add to my comment above, our current catcher throws out runners at a 15 to 20 percent clip. And has an OPS between 550 and 600. So how bad would the guy be?

If he could sniff an 800 OPS, how awful would he have to be behind the plate for the bat to not offset the glove?

I don't know if that is true. He became buddies with Manny Ramirez, who failed a few tests and played along side Jeremy Giambi who admitted to taking steroids. And although he had flashes here and overall good numbers, he never flashed 54 HR a year type numbers here.

Plan for Vargas? I haven't seen a plan at any other position.

If you think he can start, maybe a second round pick. But if i had a nickel everyone I heard fast rising reliever in the last five years I would have some dough.

Saying two 18 year olds have similarities is one thing. Saying a guy is "the next Clayton Kershaw" is another. If he was viewed as the next Clayton Kershaw, he would be the clear 1-1 like the Strasburg or Harper draft.

That is just it. When you have a guy on your staff for years and nobody has asked to interview him, then it is a sign that he probably is not a great candidate. I don't think the Twins data guy, or an assistant to TR is a hot commodity around the league.

In the pre-game today Smalley talked of a completely new swing mechanics, with an altered leg kick. So they changed the mechanics of his swing, gave him 28 games in AAA, and brought him back

Physical nit picking aside. Kershaw is 95th in WAR for pitchers and he is 28 years old. Roger Clemens is #3 and Kershaw compares favorably to him. Don't you think a guy with legitimate comps to him would be a clear 1-1?

I am not saying we could not afford the $750k. Heck, we paid Hocking $1m in 2003. But I think TR viewed Ortiz and Lecroy as the same player, so he went with the low cost option.

Ortiz had more MLB success than Lecroy. Both of them were 26. Papi's minor OPS was .913, while Lecroy's was .871. Hard to look and think this was not solely about money.

I agree so far it has by and large been the teams that are not good that have benefitted. But this slotting is relatively new. I would not put it past the Yankees, or Dodgers, or whoever to land a top 3-4 player at 25th overall. Then draft and sign their nephews in rounds 2-5 for $20k each. The system is just silly. Look at the mockery the Yankees made of the international pools and penalties last year. Or how long it took to test for steriods. Or how big of a joke the old draft system used to be when you had MLB "recommeding" slot values but certain teams completely ignoring them. Seems like the easy answer always takes MLB five years too long, with their third iteration. The easy answer is a specific dollar value to each pick. If you have the third pick, you know what the contract value will be, so you pick the best available guy on your board. It removes all the guesswork around signability, pre-draft deals, and brokering by agents out of the game. The third worst team gets the third best player.

I don't think we have enough data to determine who is the superior DH, Ortiz or Tyner.

But players and agents are still brokering which team their guy goes to. And you have situations where the 5th best player goes 35th in the draft. So it is very similar to the old system. A slight improvement, but I think it circumvents what the draft is supposed to be about. You don't see this happen to this extreme in other sports. And I have made my disclosure. The biggest gripe I have is this is about creativity and strategy. So we need to stop it immediately. We aren't good at these things.

No question the best thing that could happen would be the Pohlads selling. The Pohlad kids are in way over their heads here.

We are going to have to respecfully disagree. Would there be a few posts about not calling up red hot Buxton from AAA? Sure. Opinions vary. But it seems like the prevailing opinion here is Buxton should have at least two more weeks in AAA. Some more like a month. And a few think all year. The season is over. I think you keep a guy like Mastro around for this exact reason. A place holder. You have an injury, you aren't competitive, and your prospect is not quite ready

This was the obvious move. Yet I find myself pleasantly surprised it didn't take longer.

If it was a two week check in, that is not the end of the world. But this is a team that had both Gomez and Hicks, guys the franchise desperately wanted to succeed up here for a year or two when they weren't ready. This looks more like history repeating