tobi0040
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Everything posted by tobi0040
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Interesting article on Wacha and why he fell. Some had him labeled a closer, others a mid rotation guy. After the draft his fastball gained a little velocity and his curve improved, they give credit to the Cardinals. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/41964/how-18-teams-passed-on-michael-wacha
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I have tried to make this case before, but Stras goes 1-2 behind Trout in a re-draft. Jose Fernandez doesn't get picked over 6 times even while on the operating table. I know I have a contrarian view on this, but I would take Hoffman right now or Kolek if I knew he needed TJ soon over a #4 starter. These guys can lose 1-2 mph and a little command and not be a #4 starter.
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Sounds good, what is your sense about Kolek? I would think we have to take Kolek, Rodon, or Aiken if available right, i.e. Manuels mock.
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I don't doubt that Nola has the highest floor. Consensus seems to be best case #3 starter, most likely #4 starter. But you have to question the end game to that strategy, because the draft is the best and close to the only avenue the Twins are every going to be able to acquire high ceiling talent, espeically since the international free agent market has exploded. So if you draft five Nola's and you have a rotation of #3/#4 starters, guess what, you are not a playoff team. Even the Twins can afford #3/4 starters on the free agent market. But if you look at some of the talent from the list I put out there of guys drafted 4-7, Braun, Kershaw, Prince, Greinke, Tulo, Posey, etc. Those were not high floor low ceiling picks and we have literally no shot at guys like that in free agency.
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Article: Revisiting Aaron Hicks and Switch-Hitting
tobi0040 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
At this point, do we have any CF that will get on base .315? If we do it won't be by much. Crazy as it sounds, if we lack a real upgrade then maybe you keep him up here and hope it clicks. This is all dependent on him sitting down the Joe Mauer before each game and watching tape on the next pitcher. Hearing the lack of preparation is dissapointing. -
If you look at potential, Nola should not be considered at #5. Nobody is saying his potential matches Jackson, Gordon, Touki, or Freeland.
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Garver was a 9th round pick. I like the save money on the 9th rounder option much better. Heck, I would rather we draft Gardy's dog in the 9th round if it meant we are taking BPA at #5.
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The other point is, Kohl signed at slot value last year and we still were able to sign Gonslaves. Nola will be available at #5. I really hope we pass and take the upside. I don't want Kevin C. at #5 overall.
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I am guessing these conversations have taken place. But picking at #5 overall based on what you may end up getting at 46 is a lousy strategy in my opinion. Here are the last ten players the Twins have selected between 40 and 50 overall: Eades, Tyler, Bozied, Sents, Bell, Davidson, Durant, Newman, Gassner, and Niewenhuis. Looking at the drafts between 2002 and 2009, picks 4-7 you have 32 total picks. I find 10 absolute studs and 5 more decent players. Studs - Greinke, Fielder, Bailey, Zimmerman, Braun, Tulowitski, Kershaw, Wieters, Posey, and Wheeler. Decent to good players - Markakis, Ricky Romero, Andrew Miller, Mike Minor, Brandon Morrow. If we have a 31% chance at the stud list and a 16% chance at the second list, seems like a no brainer to me, makes more sense than even a 100% chance at getting a #4 starter. http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg
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Is anyone shocked that we basically picked a cast off SS who did not stick around here at all over a HOF caliber DH? That winter Ortiz became eligible for arbitration. On Dec. 17, the Twins designated Ortiz for assignment to make room on the roster for shortstop Jose Morban, who had been selected from Texas in the Rule 5 draft. (Morban was waived in March.) "I would've liked to have found a home for him," Ryan said. "We exhausted every avenue, but in essence it turned out to be an Ortiz-for-Morban type of thing." From the Pioneer Press:
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The bar with Hughes should not be his 4.48 career ERA or his 5.19 ERA last year, it should be his career ERA out of the new Yankes stadium, which is around 4.10, or slightly better given Target Field is about the best park he could be in. He is at 3.61 now but it has only been 47 innings.
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Jeremy, what is your sense on the Twins interest in Nola? Based on Keith Law and others, he is a guy that could be up quick but lacks plus pitches and projects as a #4 starter. I would be extremely dissapointed if that was haul at #5 overall.
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Exactly, and the contract value of $1.25M suggests that was the best offer on the table. According to wiki, he was used as a pinch hitter and had a few starts at DH the first two months of the year and was not the regular starter until Jeremy Giambi (not the good one) was benched on June 1. With hindsight it was a bad move, but the other 29 GM's were right alongside Terry on this one.
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Without a doubt, Jackson is the best HS bat in this class. Probably the best power potential of any bat in the draft. If you get that at #5 you should be happy. If Kolek, Rodon, and Aiken are gone, I would love to add the upside of Jackson, Touki, or Freeland. Alex Jackson is a 2014 C/3B/OF with a 6-2 210 lb. frame from Escondido, CA who attends Rancho Bernardo HS. Outstanding athletic build, unique blend of strength and explosive looseness. Right handed hitter, gets coiled and moves into contact, calm load and approach, very aggressive swing with plus/plus bat speed, easy over the fence power, ball explodes off the barrel, very high ceiling offensive tools. 6.83 runner, arm strength stands out both in the outfield and behind the plate, very solid mechanics behind the plate, quick feet and quick exchange, can show either elite arm strength or elite pop times. Highest level right field tools on defense should he end up there, also has experience at third base. Top ranked player in the 2014 class, tools are eye opening and performs at a very high level. Verbal commitment to Oregon. Selected to the Perfect Game All-American Classic.
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I can't blame Ortiz on Terry. Teams were not begging for his services as mentioned. He signed a 2 year deal for $4M total I believe. Lot of other moving pieces. He was never healthy here. He moved to a place with a short right field fence and hitting by Manny and others helped a ton. From 2003 to 2006, before the punitive phase of drug testing and prior to test results being public, he averaged 43 HR a year. From 2007 through last season, he averaged 29. You can't say he for sure used, but Manny and him were very close and MLB said 5% to 7% of the samples in 2003 were positive. On top of the New York times linking him. The possibility exists. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/drug_policy.jsp?content=timeline
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This is getting a little old. I have said at least three times that not everyone of these are the fault of Anderson. However, assembling a list of people that had more success with and without is one data point. I then stated that the list of guys who had more success elsewhere is equal in size or longer. I didn't even say he is a bad coach or that he should be fired, it just seems like he has a great reputation and I would expect a ton of success stories with the Twins versus without.
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The word actually implies you are disagreeing with me. The surgery was in November of 2008 and he missed all of 2009, then we cut him in 2010 after we saw his low velocity and concluded the injury made him something else.
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Article: Issues in the Outfield
tobi0040 replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
On that sliding catch, where he missed it by about 6 feet, I heard from Major League "just a bit outside" -
He was brought up by SABR as a guy who had better numbers with us. The numbers don't prove that. The fact is we thought he was done after his injury in 2009 and we cut him.
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His ERA in every one of the three years since leaving was lower than his ERA in the last two years here. He was cited as a guy who had success here and struggled elsewhere, which is simply not the case. He was lights out here for a few years before getting hurt and we gave up on him.
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You mean the 24 IP and 4.01 ERA with the Padres is both meaningful and awful? His last two years here his ERA was 4.73 and 5.00.
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We absolutely gave up on Neshek and he has been lights out since he left. Slowey's ERA was better with the Marlins, ERA+ slightly better with Twins.
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Since about four people said I was cherry picking my list or each could be explained as one off's: Rincon's last two years here, 5.13 and 6.11 ERA. Not exactly a success story under Rick and fell off without his guidance. Silva had a 4.42 ERA here. 5.94 and 4.19 his last two years. His ERA with the Cubs was 4.22 and he also had some injury concerns. Sinker ball, comes and goes. Baker - Really? He had TJ 24 months ago and my understanding is his velocity has not come back. Darn pitching coach with the Cubs. Milton - His ERA here was 4.76. He had the same ERA (not good) his first year after he left and then was consistently hurt.
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But Terry will listen to me and not you.
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I am the one that started this line of thought, better since leaving, etc. I want to point out a few things. First, I never bashed Rick Anderson. I simply said I don't get the ironclad reputation he has. I never said he is not an average pitching coach or called for him to be fired. Before I put out the list, and in at least one post since then, I specifically said not everyone on this list is Andersons fault. However, I said that looking at the success of pitchers who have left the organization versus their results here should at least be one data point. Thrylos and myself have requested a list of Twins that have left and not had the same success they had here. This list has not been forthcoming.