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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I don't follow this logic at all. First, the next starter we add has nothing to do with the other four guys. We could sign Nolan Ryan in his prime and it will not help Kyle Gibson strike out more batters. Second, Mark has never struck anyone out, yet still have a 3.81 career ERA with unbelievable durability and consistency. Third, this logic would cause us to go out and sign a guy like Chris Capuano over Mark B. Mark is a better pitcher and that is what this team needs.
  2. tobi0040
    The only reports out of the Madden camp are that he is looking for a "big challenge" and would sit out this year unless a good opportunity comes along. Frankly, no way he does not accept an interview from the Twins right now. If anything it sounds like he is trying to goat us into an interview to boost his value. Meanwhile no indication we have reached out to his camp, interviewed him or anything. Luvollo is in line for his second interview and "Jim Pohlad is getting involved". Sounds like a fat no.
  3. tobi0040
    Assumptions: -Nolasco reverts to his career 4.30 or whatever it was prior to this year -Mark B. puts up a 3.60 ERA -both average 190 IP a year -That replaces 5.00 ERA from last year That is an improvement of 44.3 runs. 2/3 of our run deficit from last year. Add in one of May/Meyer doing well. Anything from Sano, improvement from Mauer, etc. Improved OF defense, etc.
  4. tobi0040
    This team has room for one veteran. I see five guys right now in the mix. Meyer, May, Gibson, Hughes, and Nolasco. Milone is nice to have and if he turns out great. But he is coming off 4.15 and 4.19 years, was terrible here and lost his job last year. Nolasco and May did not pitch well enough last year to just pencil them in as fixtures. We have no reason to believe Meyer will start the year with the team or that our internal goal is to wait until June with him and delay service time. So adding one guy that is arguably better than the rest of the guys (by career ERA that is the case), then having a healthy competition....that is fine with me.
  5. tobi0040
    I am equally baffled. The hope strategy, hoping everyone is healthy, effective, young guys will be up on April first, and they come up and light it up and are not sent down is a flawed strategy in my opinion.
  6. tobi0040
    Yeah, we have a different definition of decent. Also, he has had several years with a 3.40 to 3.90 ERA and a k rate in the 4's or mid 4's. Last year he was at 5.3 so regression there does not equal an implosion.
  7. tobi0040
    Agreed. Seems to me the dis-taste for soft tossers is throwing the baby out with the bath water. The problem is the soft tossers we have had have not been any good. Mark B. is good. Nolasco an Pino put up about the same amount of innings last year as Mark. 200 IP at 3.39 versus an average of about 5.30. That is 43 fewer runs allowed. That would have brought us from -62 runs to -19 runs. My fear is that we add another AAAA starter or nobody, and have no depth or talent upgrade. Then Pelfrey and Pino types get a signficant amount of innings. If we add Ervin that would be a better option, but Mark. B. seems more realistic given it is 1 year.
  8. tobi0040
    Right, but the reality is it will leak out that Maddon is getting interviewed by team X, who would have a manager under contract. I don't think that will happen.
  9. tobi0040
    The hypothetical Tomas contract would probably be a wise investment for the twins. It limits our downside risk and allows us to have great production out an additional five years at below market rates if he pans out. Unfortunately that is why he would never sign it.
  10. tobi0040
    I think we are mixing up aaaa starters with low velocity with a career 3.81 era, a career 127 era plus, who may win 250 or so games
  11. tobi0040
    No. I don't. I also think that he is not getting an interview and as the only team with an opening he has every incentive to appear interested in our position and interview for it, even if he doesn't want it. Every other team has to fire their coach and take a leap of faith that madden signs there. He needs our job for leverage or at least it would help his cause We will know shortly if we reached out and invited him in. As far as salary, maybe. Likely not more than 6.
  12. tobi0040
    His era has been incredibly consistent over 3000 innings and a time span that dates back to the y2k bug. I have a hard time believing his defenses have been that good and consistent and the reason for his success
  13. tobi0040
    It is still his job to play the guys though. To shift the defense, construct the lineup, etc. I agree he is not a 10 win guy....but nobody, absolutely nobody is debating he is a better candidate than anyone we have interviewed.
  14. tobi0040
    Most gave the Twins a pass on Garza last off-season, because we had a verifiable offer out there that was in the ballpark (more annually) then he signed for. If we had a five million dollar offer out there and he signed with the Cubs, most reasonable people would give the Twins a pass there too. Luvollo had a second interview recently and according to La Velle, Pohlad has met with multiple guys and an announcement could come as early as Wednesday. So to me we aren't trying to get Madden, who still not a single person has said is not the best candidate available. I don't think this can be dismissed that easily as a number game.
  15. tobi0040
    One pitcher is just one pitcher. We need to acquire a certain type of pitcher, or we have all righties so we need a lefty logic makes no sense to me. The fact is, Mark B is a #2 starter and has been one his whole career. That would help us win baseball games because he would be our best or second best pitcher.
  16. tobi0040
    I agree. Sometimes things get over complicated. We have a manager spot open. He is the best available manager, nobody is debating this. $5M is not going to break the bank, block other moves, and he isn't going to be miss time with tommy john. Sign the guy.
  17. tobi0040
    You could take the same ERA numbers for Mark across 15 seasons, and get way more innings a year. How about ERA+. Milone 97 and Mark 117. If the prospect is B level like we expect...this seems like a no brainer to me.
  18. tobi0040
    I think where we sit right now, the blocking argument is a false debate. It is nowhere near a lock the five guys we think are starters next year are going to start with the big club, be healthy, and effective. We also have nothing to suggest the Twins want Meyer on the team in April. Add in spycake's comments about our ERA last year.... I can't remember a single year where the five guys penned in in October were the five guys the following year. Lastly, I am not as worried about Mark B's other metrics. The guy has a career 3.81 ERA in over 3,000 innings. He has had several years in the 4 K's per 9 range and still an ERA meaningfully under 4.00. So if his last three years of 5.6, 6.1, and 5.3 regresses a tad he should be okay. He is outlier in that regard. Milone's first full year matched Mark B's ERA, then he has put up 4.15 and 4.19 the following two, including an awful stretch with the Twins. We should not cut the guy, but we should not be counting on him either.
  19. tobi0040
    Twins need innings, consistency, and an upgrade in talent. Innings - Mark has had 14 consecutive years of over 200 IP. The last time he had under 200 was his rookie year when he was 21. Consistency - ERA each year since 2007. 3.63, 3.79, 3.84, 3.79, 3.84, 4.28, 3.59, 3.74, 4.15, 3.39. Talent - His career ERA of 3.81 would be the best on the Twins staff. His 3.39 ERA last year would have been second, only to Hughes's career year. Maybe the guy comes here and we tack on 1/13 to his deal. If it only the years that scare off the Twins, it would seem like a good deal. As far as blocking goes. We would have six guys in my opinion. Mark, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Meyer, and May. May and Nolasco did not look last year like a guy that you just hand a rotation spot to. They should have to earn them and it is likely Meyer starts in AAA anyway. And that is before 1-2 guys get hurt.
  20. tobi0040
    $7M per WAR seems a tad high with several nuances. Such as age, overpaying for career years, potential, injuries, etc. All impact the players contract. I looked up the four largest contracts (I think, it was quick look). I excluded Tanaka because he did not have an MLB track record. Cano - roughly $3M per WAR at 24M a year. Choo - roughly 6.3M per WAR at 18M a year Ellsbury - roughly $4M per WAR at $21M a year Mccan - roughly $6.5M per WAR at 17M a year Mid-tier guys Arroyo - 6.7M per WAR Byrd - 5.3M per WAR Feldman - 16M per WAR
  21. tobi0040
    Mauer and payroll are part of any topic. Those are the rules.
  22. tobi0040
    3 WAR players are far better than "serviceable".
  23. tobi0040
    Outside of about 1-2 horrible contracts, no team is taking on Mauers contract. Maybe straight up for A-Rod. That was the bigger point, I believe.
  24. tobi0040
    Fair point. I am using Gardy as my starting point. The league was 5 years ahead of him
  25. tobi0040
    I say about 3 games is the difference between the best and worst manager. I just think about the difference between certain guys facing righties and lefties, as well as how many hits pull hitters lose to the shift. I remember Mauer from April-June this year it seemed like drilled the ball right at the OF's a ton. Being on the cutting edge there has to play a role. But Tony LaRussa was not going to bring the Astros or Twins to the playoffs this year
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