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Jeff P

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Everything posted by Jeff P

  1. Jeff P
    He has to be a ton better on offense, and their is no speculative about it. Casilla is a damn solid MI, Mastro is not. You can hide a poor fielder at RF/LF/1B and even 3B. You absolutely can't hide one for SS/2B/CF. For a pitch to contact team like the Twins you really can't be rolling out bad defenders at key positions. Look at it this way. If they try it for a week or two and it fails, as you seem to think it will, that will end our discussions on the subject and we'll all be free to move on to all the more pressing issues in the Universe. Yea I think most would agree that chances of success are pretty low. Ok hopefully better than one in a million, in any case I don't see what the harm is. The comment about the defensive dropoff to Casilla is a good one, but I doubt he will be back anyway, this might be a comparison to Dozier as he is the one who may be losing at bats next year if this does work out.
  2. Jeff P
    Yea it is worth a shot after Span comes back and certainly after Rochester is done when I would think that Parmelee would be recalled. Moving Mastroanni would allow him to both get AB and see if he can play second base, as well as free up space in RF for Parmelee to get some more at bats.
  3. Jeff P
    I like your basic point: trade high on a player instead of waiting for them to fall down and then trading low. I just think most others will believe he is going to fall back and so the return for Revere would not be all that much. Personally I would rather trade Span: more expensive and fewer years under team control and he will bring more in trade. Plus he also has risk for falling back, in his case over injury concerns.
  4. Jeff P
    It will be fun to see how they do at this next level up. I check the box scores but had apparently not clicked through to Berrios' overall numbers so I did not realize how amazing he has been: 16 2/3 inn, 7 hits, 2ER, 3BB, 27K. Buxton's numbers after his 1-27 start are very good: .295/.377/.656. He is striking out a lot which is a concern but in any case I am glad the Twins are challenging him these last few weeks of the season to see what he can do.
  5. Jeff P
    I think this is a good list, in general I would rank the guys below A ball lower as the disappointment rate between E town and Beloit is really high. However I am far more excited about the system than I was a couple of years ago and there is a good balance of good prospects that we will see this Sept or next year and some very high upside guys that are still 2-4 years away. One question, when you say that Polanco needs to show that he can hit do you mean next year at Beloit? Because his line at E town is .314/.400/.480 which I think is pretty solid; as a comparison Niko Goodrum is 16 months older (and ranked 32 spots higher) and his line at E town isn't any better: .242/.377/.470
  6. Jeff P
    I saw it today, good movie. The comparisons to Hoop Dreams are valid on several levels. What made Hoop Dreams somewhat more compelling was that it followed the main players for several years so you felt like you got to know them really well. Still I enjoyed it and it was fun to see more of Sano's personality. I can see why some in MLB are upset, yikes both MLB and the guy from the Pirates come out looking really bad.
  7. Jeff P
    I am curious about that too, if he falls in next years draft due to signability concerns or injury, his slot amount might be less than what he could get if he waited a year (if that is the time) and opened up the bidding to all teams. Of course I doubt it would be any where near the 3.8M he potentially is turning down now.
  8. Jeff P
    Perfect Game had a series of blog entries back in March from something called the "Domican Prospect League". Minier was mentioned a couple of times: "If I had to choose, the two most impressive BPs were Nathanael Javier and Amaurys Minier.... Amaurys Minier is a switch hitter who is very good from both sides, but really stands out from the left side with a short swing with lots of bat speed. Minier has great bat control and he squares up balls with easy, driving them all over the park. He also has big pull pop and can easily hit the ball 400+ feet. He isn’t quite as quick or easy from the right side but still crushes every pitch he sees." "Amaurys Minier followed up his BP performance by going the other way with a tough outside fastball, showing the plate coverage and the ability to adjust to pitch location. He can flat out rake." http://www.perfectgame.org/blogs/View.aspx?blog=222
  9. Jeff P
    Wild how quickly perspectives change on someone. He is playing really well, but I think they need to wait until after next year before looking into a long term deal. I don't think there is any way to know how good of a player he will settle out at right now or even after this season. The thing is, the first couple of years of arbitration are cheap anyway, so assuming he has a solid but not incredible season next year, I think they could still get him at a reasonable rate, well below 7M a season.
  10. Jeff P
    A couple of other interesting points that I have seen: 1) Next year and going forward, the international cap will be adjusted for winning percentage the previous season. The article I saw said that the worst teams will be allowed to spend ~$5M while the best teams get to spend ~$1.8M. 2) Starting in 2013-2014, teams will be able to trade their international spending cap space, but only an additional 50% of their cap. Jeff
  11. Jeff P
    He tops out around 87-89, here is an article about him in his local newspaper from a couple of days ago: http://thegazette.com/2012/06/13/former-west-delaware-prep-hermsen-one-step-closer-to-the-big-leagues/ At this point I am worried that he will top out as a AAAA player, but perhaps he can be a 4th starter type. I have been surprised by his success at AA this year, I would have thought he would have struggled a bit vs. the better hitters. Jeff
  12. Jeff P
    That is correct: after round 10, a team can still go above 100K, it just eats into their pool amount. And your point about the tax is also correct. Team can go up to 5% over their pool total and just pay the 75% luxury tax. Obviously the Twins won't pay hundreds of thousands in luxury tax, but teams don't lose draft picks until they go above 5%. Perhaps if the Twins are high on a player but it would put them 50K above the total, they would do it and pay the 37.5K of luxury tax. We can hope right?
  13. Jeff P
    All these relievers have me scratching my head, I like to stay positive but wow. I know they will try to turn one or two guys into starters but how often does that work? I do give them credit for drafting guys who can get strikeouts and sure hope they turn out. This is a critical draft where they have so many early picks.
  14. Jeff P
    I agree, he looked good last night and I doubt he would be having anywhere near as good of a year with the Twins. Some people need a fresh start and he was one of them.
  15. Jeff P
    It did make things much tighter, but there is an overall pool and not just an individual slot value; they can allocate the pool any way they want to so savings from one spot can be used to pay more for someone else. The one catch however is that if they don't sign someone, the pool is reduced accordingly and cannot be reallocated to others. That said, i would be shocked if Buxton went over slot. His negotiating position is not THAT strong as he is already the number 2 pick and the higher value of the number 1 pick in three years is outweighed by the risck that he will not be as good as expected. I would hope that they have already talked to him about expectations for what it would take to sign him, he does not seem like the kind of person that would go back on his word based on what I have read. I also hope they use their full pool amount and try to get someone savings from some of the early round picks to pay overslot somewhere else. They have huge pool and this is the best chance they will have to reload they system.
  16. Jeff P
    I think it is too soon, both Duensing and Blackburn (among others) have had streaks where they had a lot of success. In looking back through his minor league record, he has never been dominant and has generally given up a lot of hits. He has lowered his walk rate and if keeps that up it gives him a better chance to stick. His pitches seem to have good movement so it would not shock me if he becomes a solid starter but I think it will be awhile before we know.
  17. Jeff P
    I have to admit I hated the trade at the time, but it looks much better now with Diamond performing and Bullock struggling with control. The other point is that relief pitching is one area where both the major league team and the upper levels of the minors look solid so a guy like Bullock would be behind a bunch of other players. Depending on what happens with Kibson and a couple of other guys, this draft could be ok. A lot of recent drafts have been bad to horrible, and the weird thing to me is how quickly so many early round picks wash out quickly or never get past the lower levels.
  18. Jeff P
    Quite a few exciting players, several of which we are seeing now or will be seeing soon. Thanks for putting this together. Is there a reason that Boyd moved up so much even though he hasn't played? Jeff
  19. Jeff P
    Parmelee and Dozier are both left, perhaps Parmelee is no longer eligible. If Boyd is in the top 10, that would be a huge move since Seth ranked him 20th in the preseason (Harrison was 12th so the move is more understandable given the injuries above him). Jeff
  20. Jeff P
    It's a small sample size, but Sano's strikeout rate has been much better in May, let's hope that continues. Just taking K/(AB + BB): April: 32/(87+18) = 30.5% May: 8/(43+4) = 17.0% The May number is not realistic longer term, but if his strikeout rate is in the low 20's with his power, that would be good to see. Hopefully he gets to Ft. Myers this year but I can understand if they want to keep him at Beloit for the full year.
  21. Jeff P
    Amazing what horrible pitching from the home team will do for a park's offensive statistics! Home runs is the statistic that is most park dependent, I wonder how it ranks adjusting for Twins pitching. Jeff
  22. Jeff P
    Sounds like a great situation for you and I bet the kids think it is really cool too. Best of luck on the rest of the season!
  23. Jeff P
    I agree, I am more focused on OBP than batting average. I guy like Sano is going to strikout a lot, but 14 strikouts in 49 PA is still higher than what I was hoping for. His slugging percentage and OBP is higher than I was expecting so overall I am really excited about Sano.
  24. Jeff P
    I can't blame them for dropping payroll either. This team is a long ways away from being competitive with the best teams. They need another stretch like 2004-2007 where Kubel, Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer came up (I know some of them came up earlier but this is when they started going more full time). Going forward, with these huge tv deals getting signed there will be more and more teams that are not constrained by money so the only chance the Twins will have is to largely develop their own players and fill in a few gaps outside of the organization. Jeff
  25. Jeff P
    18M seems optimistic for Greinke given Cain's deal but in any case I like the plan, whether it is Greinke or someone who is clearly at least an above average starter, we need much better starting pitching. Hopefully Gibson, Wimmers, and Hendriks can all turn into at least average starters. They will be cheap for a number of years and this will free up money to spend on a couple of free agents. Jeff
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