If you never trust a model because the odds don't play out 100% of the time, you wouldn't fly in an airplane ever, or drive a car, or ride a bike, or ever leave the house. You wouldn't eat food that you didn't grow yourself. Now, i don't THINK that was your point......but the FO needs to make a decision on a direction. They looked at the data, and the team, and the other teams, and made a decision based on likely outcomes. I think that's what we would generally want a FO to do. Like they did at the beginning of the year, when they spent so much money, and tried to plug every hole on the roster.