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Mike Sixel

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Everything posted by Mike Sixel

  1. Lots of things that seem to be inconceivable turn out to be true. I understand your skepticism, I have no idea what the real number is. But, people much smarter than me put a lot of time into this. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt on this one. Again, the issue for me isn't if the Twins are losing half a run a game, or .75 runs a game.....its that they are not gaining runs per game.
  2. I don't think, for me anyway, that you've demonstrated that they are out of whack. You seem to agree that an 80 run differential is reasonable. That means, to me, within the margin of error of measurement. That also means that you should, knowing how stats work, be willing to accept that there will be outliers, and those outliers will be extreme by their nature, leading to numbers of around .75 runs per game or so (no idea what that standard deviation is.....not all that interested in looking).
  3. Again......the pitching and the defense both add up to that 150. You seem to be arguing the following: I have 4 apples today. It is impossible that someone once gave me 100 apples. If team A has pitching that is 100 runs better than team B. And team B has defense that is 40 runs better than team A.....then it is NOT TRUE that defense accounts for 40/60 percent of the run differential (which is the example you are using, unless I am misunderstanding).
  4. Dear Big 12........... hahahahahahahahaha* *see, fans suck!
  5. How? If the pitching accounts for 50 runs, and the actual delta is 20.....doesn't that mean that defense accounts for more delta than the "total delta"? I am 100% certain your last sentence is 100% incorrect, in terms of the "defying of logic".
  6. I had ISU in the Elite 8..........
  7. I prefer to imagine a Rosario, Buxton, Arcia OF, but I get your point completely.
  8. i don't care if they lose out on a guy I don't think has much value, and wont' be on the team next year. If they are worried about losing Robinson, they are worried about the wrong things.
  9. Airplanes to land at the wrong runway, or even wrong airport sometimes, but that's not I was talking about, I was talking about maintenance and construction and cleaning and all the other stuff.....but ya, sometimes they do go to the wrong place.
  10. It's not inaccurate, it is less precise than you want......that's the nature of statistics. They come with error bars and confidence levels. You all ride airplanes and cars and use google......and they use the same kinds of processes/numbers in all their work.
  11. Except the authors are clear, they are not precise numbers, any more than most economic numbers, or polling numbers, or numbers used in six sigma process work, or the numbers Google uses to send back search results........that's not how number actually work at the medium/highest levels of use.
  12. Don't want your RP to run out of gas........use young guys you can send back and forth between AAA is one option. Another is to have good SP. I like both options, frankly.
  13. If he does this, I will give him an A on his report card!
  14. 40+? Dang......now I could be worse in this pool than my other one!
  15. Ugh....arguing over the exact numbers again, rather than the point......the Twins defense is likely to cost them wins this year. Arguing over the precision of the measurement, for the 100000000th time seems like a lot of typing for us to go over the same arguments again and again. it's almost like some want to do that, so we ignore the actual point, which is that the Twins defense is likely to be about the worst in baseball.
  16. So far, in the majors, there is no evidence he's even league average on defense. none. He can get on base, but he can't hit. You can't just ignore that part. He should be in AAA, imo. He's already had two chances, this isn't like Meyer or May who haven't even had a chance, this is a guy that has completely failed so far. He doesn't steal all that well. He's not Gomez, just waiting to break out......
  17. I was responding to the article. TR has been clear, that's not an issue for him (I call BS on that on Sano and Buxton, but we'll see). The issue is that a rebuilding team is even considering Pelfrey as a legit option to Meyer and May at this point in the rebuild, imo. Others may disagree, I'm cool with that. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind.
  18. Y'all don't even want to sign pitchers past 31 or 2....why worry about Meyer and FA past that? I can live with Meyer waiting 12 days......after that, I doubt there's a good reason to keep him down (barring injury, of course). No reason to keep May down now.....
  19. Meyer is a bit told for a pitcher, to be worried about service clocks, imo.
  20. some will say "just wait, it will be worth it". In the meantime, the team has so far gone 2 years without a CF.......that has a cost (in wins, and ticket sales). Those losses can never be recovered. They happened.
  21. Halfway to the correct decision, imo......
  22. I did love the tourney. Not sure what I'll do this year. Guess I'll start finding out tomorrow......but to me, the less sports I watch, the happier I usually am.
  23. I knew I should have stopped reading this thread. No my head hurts just thinking about the implications of what you just typed......I was pretty sure last time!
  24. True on that. I'm not really complaining, I'm disagreeing with what I see as their approach so far. they can do what they want to do. No real skin off my back either way. It's just sports.
  25. That's an interesting thought experiment....what industry would want him to do what, at this point? Like, if the Phillies traded him to, say, Wal Mart to be a greeter, or to the NFL to be a DL?
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