jtkoupal

You'll want to see these updated playoff odds https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Great performance against a very good pitcher. By the way, Trevor Bauer got knocked around by the Chi Sox, which is not good for the Indians, who need Bauer now more than ever. Anyway, The Twinkies move another game ahead and now have a 3-game lead over Browntown in the Central!

I really like Adrianza, but I'm afraid he's the victim of the numbers game here. Keep in mind that Astudillo is coming back soon also. In reality, two guys have to go. Cave has options, so as mentioned above, he could go down and Marwin can serve as the 4th outfielder/swiss-army knife guy. However, having Adrianza, Gonzalez, Sanó, and Astudillo is kind of redundant and the Twins have infield depth still in the minors. Sending down a pitcher is probably very likely, especially considering the starting pitching has been pretty solid and we have a lot of non-playoff teams coming up on our schedule. The real choice here probably is DFAing Adrianza or optioning Cave.

This was a very good week for the Twins in the AL Central: At the outset, the Twins were only expected to win 2.97 games, based off of FiveThirtyEight's game projections. The Indians were expected to win 3.14 games. Note: Win projections are based on adding together the probability of winning each individual game. The Twins won 4/7 games, the Indians won 3/5 games. Also, while I hate to see injuries, the Tribe could be without Corey Kluber for a while, as he was injured on Wednesday Night in Miami. Big week for the Twins against some formidable opponents. Now gotta keep battling against Toronto and Detroit this week! The Indians will host the White Sox for 4 then go to Oakland for 3 this weekend.

The Twins are 16-9, but only 10-9 against teams not named the Orioles. If they can maintain their 10-9 pace against non-Orioles opponents, they would win 86 games, which could, maybe, be enough to at least grab the 2nd Wild Card

I would imagine that the Twins will promote some internal options such as those mentioned above before looking outside. However, especially with Fernando Romero not running away with his originally-expected key role in the 'pen and Mejía struggling, the depth in the organization is modest. There are guys that could come up and are worth a look, but it's hard to imagine those guys pushing the needle too much. Sooner or later, I believe the Twins will look to the trade block for relief help, but it could still a bit early for that yet. However, the Twins have the prospects to land a good pitcher. The sooner you make a move, the better. These games count.

Dear Rob Manfred: Can Baltimore move to the AL Central? Sincerely, Jordan

I did not expect that the Twins were going to win this game. I pretty much knew they would not. However, it didn't seem like they were playing to win. Resting two hot hitters with an off day the next day and a series against the worst team in the league just seems...odd to me. Then again, Rocco knows more about this team and these guys than I do, so I trust his judgement over mine 7/7 days a week.

Ha, the Indians got swept by the ROYALS!! But they're the runaway favorites for the AL Central. That's ok, I'd prefer the media keep the Twins under the radar, less pressure. That being said, I hope our bullpen comes around. They haven't been giving up a lot of runs for the most part, but they've been shaky at times and it has required using an extra pitcher or two. With less off days coming up, this becomes a bigger problem pretty quick.

Before we all collectively freak out: 1.) We had a winning road trip against mostly competitive NL teams, where we couldn't use Cruz. 2.) We have a winnable homestead coming up against Detroit and Toronto; no reason we can't win 4 or 5 of those games. 3.) It's April 4.) It's not Rocco's fault that Vazquez couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, or a misjudgment to bring him in. After all, Odorizzi did walk the pitcher.

Craig Kimbrel is still unsigned, and the Twins watched multiple quality relievers (Allen, Miller, Ottavino, etc.) all get snatched up for reasonable deals elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Twins payroll is going to be well under that of last year's Opening Day. The Twins needed to sign one of those guys before all this happened. I guess you reap what you sow, unfortunately.

I don't think there is any excuse that Martín Perez is a Twin right now and not Dallas Keuchel. NO. EXCUSE.

No Designated Hitter?

Who knows, maybe this will get Willians Astudillo on the OD roster after all!

I'm not too concerned about the temporary loss of Sanó. Marwin Gonzalez will see a lot of time at third base in the early going. In fact, I can envision a scenario where Marwin spends a lot of time at third base later in the season too, as I don't think it's out of the question that Sanó will start to spend some more time at first as the season progresses.

PREDICTION: By 2019's end, Miguel Sanó will play 1B regularly and Marwin will be getting the bulk of the reps at 3B. I see Marwin being used at 2B in the early going, and I think that is a sign that they are not sold on Schoop. Furthermore, I think this signing is meant as Sanó insurance in case they need to move him to 1B, or worse.... eh, let's not talk about that.

100% on board with the DH and the roster size. Not as much on the rest. I don't like the tanking rules idea. I think innocent teams could get caught in the crossfire. How do you distinguish tanking from a team just generally sucking? It's a judgement call and I don't know that policing a certain win requirement is a great solution.

I would poop my pants if the Twins sign one of these guys. The money is absolutely there, but a long-term investment, and a very expensive one at that, seems highly unlikely for this organization. I sincerely doubt that this will happen, but we can always dream, right? For the record, if we do, by some miracle, sign one of these guys, the Twins are winning the AL Central in 2019. Book it. Screenshot this and show me in September. If the Twins sign Harper or Machado, the Twins will win the AL Central in 2019.

I just don't get the approach being this conservative given the division being in the state that it is in. Cleveland won 91 games last year, and their team, thus far, has gotten worse. The Tigers and Royals probably won't be good, and the White Sox are far from a sure thing. A few dollars could go a long way here. That being said, I also understand that this season largely rides on Buxton, Sanó bouncing back and guys like Kepler and Polanco progressing. Also, the top of the rotation has to be good as well.

It won't happen. I know that and you know that. However, the Twins 100% should do it. It's not hard. I shouldn't even need to explain why they should, it goes without saying. Machado is a great player. He plays shortstop very well and can play third. He can mash. He's very young. He hits dingers. He's marketable. The Twins have a chance to win the division without him, and I think they would win it with him. It's very simple. Open up the wallets, pay Manny Machado, and enjoy watching him mash for the next 7-10 years.

Remember how the Free Agent market was supposed to go a lot faster this year? Well, it's going pretty darn slow again. It's hard to say if there will still be big names on the market in mid-March again, but the idea that this year's market was going to go a lot quicker seems to have been wrong at this point.

Thank the lord. The Twins needed this. Now let's get some help down in the pen

I agree with you. They are stick in limbo to some extent with the offense. However, adding Cron and Schoop just seems they are dumpster diving, and I think the division is too winnable for that. Ultimately, my opinion is meaningless and they know more than I do, but it's hard to look at these moves and not get the impression that they aren't trying to capitalize on a weak division, like they attempted to do last year.

You may be correct. I do still have faith in Kepler, I think he has plenty of talent. I'm just saying that it is important that he takes a step forward at the plate. His defense was much better in 2018, but he has been the same offensive player since 2016.

The offseason has been slow thus far for the Twins. The only notable additions have been Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, and Ronald Torreyes. There have been some rumblings about Nelson Cruz heading to Minnesota in 2019, but thus far, no notable additions have been made. If the season started today, Minnesota's lineup would look something like this: C: Jason Castro 1B: C.J. Cron 2B: Jonathan Schoop SS: Jorge Polanco 3B: Miguel Sanó LF: Eddie Rosario CF: Byron Buxton RF: Max Kepler DH: Tyler Austin Looking up and down that lineup, there are reasons for optimism. There is also plenty of room for concern. There are no sure bets in that lineup. The Twins are hoping for a lot of breakthroughs, and they will need to happen in order for the Twins offense to be competitive in 2019. Jason Castro is not an offensive catcher, but catcher has become a starved offensive position in Major League Baseball. He has a career wRC+ of 92, very similar to his 2017 mark of 93. Castro only played in 19 games last year, so a return to health would be huge for the Twins. That being said, it's far from a guarantee that he will be healthy and productive. Castro could be the first of many coin flips in the Twins lineup next season. C.J. Cron is a solid player who jacked 30 homers for the Rays in 2018 while posting a wRC+ of 122. However, his OBP was pretty low at .323 and his career wRC+ is only 111. It's possible that playing in the AL East boosted his power numbers. Cron is a decent player, but it would be hard to count on him being more than just decent. Jonathan Schoop belted 32 for Baltimore in 2017, but the total dipped to just 21 bombs in 131 games in 2018. The Twins are taking a chance on Schoop, hoping he regains his 2017 form. If this is starting to sound familiar, I promise it's not going to get any better. The Twins are flipping a coin with Schoop, hoping he bounces back and fills the void left by Brian Dozier at Second Base. Jorge Polanco had an underrated half-season in 2018. He put up 1.3 WAR despite missing the first 80 games due to suspension. I believe Polanco may be destined for Second Base in the future, and I don't imagine him being a star offensive player, but for now, he will be close to average at shortstop defensively while putting up a decent OBP (such as the .345 he posted in 2018). Miguel Sanó might be the most frustrating player the Twins have had in recent years. Not just because of his underperformance in 2018, but also due to the continuing questions about his character and drive. It is likely that his poor fitness affected his performance last year. It is difficult to be optimistic about his future with the information we have now. Eddie Rosario was an elite player in the second half of 2017 through the first half of 2018. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff after that (wRC+ of just 64 in the second half, compared to 137 in the first half, and 127 in the second half of 2017). Hopefully, his dip was due to injuries and he will be ready to go. However, it is not out of the question that he crashed back to earth after about a year of elite production. Byron Buxton is much like Miguel Sanó from the standpoint that they have been counting on him since 2012 to resurrect the franchise. I am not comparing Buxton's character and work-ethic to Sanó's, but I am comparing their importance to the franchise. Buxton has had a calamity of injuries and has struggled to gain any consistency on offense. His defense is never in question, but the career wRC+ of 76 and the piling injuries is legitimate cause for concern now that he is almost four years into his Major League career. Max Kepler has the organization, and fan base, in purgatory almost as much as any other player. We keep waiting. And Waiting. And Waiting. But the breakout hasn't happened. He has a hot streak, like he did to start 2018. Then he sleepwalks. Then he has a miserable month. Then he heats up. Then he sleepwalks again. Kepler isn't going to put up a 147 wRC+ every month (April 2018), but he needs to avoid the 28 wRC+ month (June 2018). Sooner or later, some consistency is necessary. Tyler Austin may be the odd man out if the Twins do land Nelson Cruz, who would be huge for this lineup. It's possible the Twins will find somebody else for 1B/DH anyhow. That being said, if the season started today, it is likely that Austin would get the bulk of the workload at DH. Austin has talent, but he is probably a platoon player at best. I'm not trying to be too much of a cynic, but it is hard to look at the lineup and be too optimistic about everything going right. A lot has to go in the Twins favor for this offense, as it is today, to be competitive in 2019. Falvine has their work cut out for them, time to spend a few bucks (or maybe a few more).