twinsfan34

Yes. I'm hoping for Dioneer Navarro. 1-2 years, $3-$4m per. Stuart Turner made an appearance in AA last year. We drafted 2 other catchers. Because they don't play a whole lot of games and the yet to be determined value of Pinto - I don't see Free Agency spending being a place where it should be a high priority to spend a lot, e.g. Salty.

1. Read John's original post...the tone of the argument was not over the top 'advanced metrics'...was about a 3 yr 30M deal. That quote said it was a no-brainer. I would disagree...as did a good many people. And others thought 3y/30M is a good deal. That seems to be the 'over/under'... 2. Tableau is a BI software, it's more on the visual end than the back end. I have exposure to Tableau and can use it at work, but I don't have personal access to Tableau or SAS for personal use. Just too expensive. R is open source, Excel comes with any MS Office program commonly installed on most PCs, and SQL Server Studio 2012 is also free for personal use. If I had $10K to spend on software I might consider those you mentioned for personal use, but again, I probably wouldn't. To relate it to this article, AJ is like the old open source software I use. Gets the same results, cheaper. Salty is the newer sexier option, but you will pay 2-3x what you would pay for. 3. Playing time is not relevant? Well, again, it was on a dependent player vs team salary equation. Not stand alone. We want Joe Mauer to play. He played 75g at catcher, 113 total, 503 PA. Is that the best use of his $23M salary for the Twins? If he only plays and catches 120g this year? Salty has two 120 game seasons and three over 100 g on his resume of 7 major league seasons. These are guaranteed contracts and the Twins don't have the luxury other teams do. Playing time matters. He hasn't even met one full season of plate appearances. It matters. We agree to disagree. That's fine. If one catcher is 5-10% better (choose whatever metric you want) than the other catcher and averages 70-120 g a year and the other catcher isn't quite as good but gives me 120-145 g a year, I'll take the guy who plays 120-145 g year every time. 4. K%. It matters. I want a guy who can make contact with the ball. If you can do a .280/.360/.480 or better stat line, I can maybe handle 30% K rate. But that's not Salty. Take whatever advanced metrics you want or simple ones. If you can't make contact...when I need to push a runner over or get a sac fly...and I have to pinch hit for you because you aren't a sure thing to make contact? That's an extra roster spot...once again, playing time is relevant. If I need 2 players (Terry Ryan has reiterated this a lot in the platoon questions) for one position...what does that say about you? I do need 2 catchers, but do I need a 3rd on the roster type of thinking. 5. There's a good number of reports the Red Sox are after AJ, too. Just reports at this time. I don't have insider knowledge. One is perhaps a smoke screen for the other to bring the price down to see who wants to play in Boston. 6. The World Series isn't relevant? I believe it is. Kirk Gibson, hurt leg and all, was put in the game even though he couldn't walk. 1988 World Series. Salty was a healthy scratch. 4 out of 6 games. Do advanced metrics give the favor to Ross as a hitter or receiver? Or were the matchups too savory for Salty? Wacha Wacha Wacha. Does Don Mattingly make the HOF if he has Kirby Puckett's post season record and performance? Does Kirby make the HOF if he doesn't have his post season heroics?

Per Darren Wolfson...today. --The Twins are maintaining dialogue with free agent catchers, including A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Boston is seen as stiff competition for Pierzysnki, who was at the general managers' meetings. One Twins source didn't deny that they met with him there. To get Saltalamacchia, who a source says would sign with the Twins, the offer has to be for at least three years. The annual money figures to be in the $9 million to $11 million range. http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Wolfson_Updating_Twins_offseason_plan_dont_expect_a_move_this_week112613

I think those are some of the exact reasons why he left the Red Sox. He's with the Cubs since Fall 2011. I don't think he's has many similar signings since with the Cubs.

I find it sorta...ironic...or perhaps a cause-effect that Salty supposedly is a better pitcher framer...but leads the league in passed balls (favor advanced metric versus passed ball). Seems like he's just keeping his mitt in the strike zone and letting the balls get by as a consequence? I like the stats about a player at 1B, 2B, and 3B with respect to outs. If a player gets to 2nd or 3rd. I believe you can find this in some of Bill James' abstracts. Goes up something like 20% or so per base relative to the same number of outs. This comes into play with SBs and passed balls.

I stated his CS%, passed balls, and fielding % were better...barely better, but better. However, as it has been pointed out all of these statistics are irrelevant and non-advanced metrics.

Yeah. Didn't mean to come off as attributing you as having come up with it. 5M is the average...eh. I'm not sure I buy it as something valuable. Sure, it's an inferred stat, but it doesn't have 100% equivalent ROI. That is, I mean sure, it's an average, but it's not a correlation. It's like a casino...some winners, some losers, but spending $5M doesn't ensure a win. I think a bright mind like Theo Epstein (and Terry Ryan) are onto the smart investments...minor leagues...international signings...versus playing the free agent market.

I suck at playing the piano. I can't sing a note. I couldn't throw a curveball to save my life, still can't. But some things, I was better at.

I was told I did not provide any statistics or facts that were relevant to any argument (As if you all were better than me). I said, this is not SABR...does everything have to be stats based? This is Twinsdaily. I said, if anyone wanted, we could go over there then.

Concerning the hitter aspect. I cited Doumit's AVG/OBP/SLG line versus Salty's. You cited OPS+, I cited Doumit's as it favored Doumit, every year but 2013. Salty's healthiest year, Doumit's least healthy year.

The problem with his formula, is he takes into account bad investments, dead contracts, inactive players who weigh the cost (millions) but aren't providing towards the WAR.

So..for the Twins to make the playoffs...as a wild card. 93 Wins. So 12 WAR? 81-81 means 0 WAR? So payroll of only $60M is needed to get 12 WAR based on that $5M per WAR formula. A rookie player cost $500K...they're good for what kind of WAR? Maybe it's $60M above...average? It would seem the WAR/Millions ratio would be changing year to year...would have to be weighted. Doesn't correlate...which MLB teams didn't have $60M last year that didn't also win the necessary 93 games to make the playoffs. Or the Twins...at 66 wins...need 27 more Wins or 27 x 7M added to their payroll to get to the playoffs? $264M team salary to make the playoffs? As Mark Twain said of statistics, "there's statistics, statistics, and damned lies."

Well, I quoted Salty in the thing too. It was an "If then" statement. Meaning, if Salty can improve (he had a huge way above his career numbers) then why not Pinto (who also had way above his likely contributions).

Fangraph columnist: Who coincidentally, made all the same points I did about Salty. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-land-mines-of-the-2014-free-agent-class/

I like it. Pitch framing is something where a catcher can easily do. I caught through high school. It something a catcher has to cognizant of. When I pitched I was always a little frustrated when my catcher didn't give me a good target. Same thing when I watch MLB games today. I'm guessing that most teams don't feel it's that important as it could easily be taught and emulated. Why isn't Ryan Hanigan on this list? He's easily the best defensive catcher by the eyeball test, CS% (1st), fielding % (1st), and his pitch framing isn't bad either. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

You just did, what you said I did. But really, you took my Pinto line out of context. Leave it in context with the line that Salty will get better. Is there any reason to think Salty would get better was the line. I understand sarcasm and context take some discernment to pick up - so I won't fault you there. Do you have some examples of some 'fact based models'...? Perhaps you have a working definition that should be shared. It's fine to point out someone is wrong, but if you don't teach or show, then what value have you really offered? Going back to the Pinto comment. In context, I didn't see any evidence, Sabermetrics or whatever, that would suggest Salty would get better than he was in 2013. So I said, "Why not Pinto?" He's a rookie. IF we must play the linear game, play it for both players. Again, context. Can you provide some sort of statistical analysis to aid his case? How about a simple linear regression model based models and optimization based on similar catchers. Or going the way of Baseball Prospectus, any idea what the PETOCA might be for Salty for 2014? I generally find those a bit low...but I guess I'm at a loss. It seems you can just say "Fangraphs" or "Statistic" and that counts as statistics based? See one problem with most of the statistics cited for Salty is that year-to-year there's very little correlation of consistency. BABIP, OPS+, SLG, etc show very little consistency year to year. Do you know how lucky Salty was this year? His BABIP was .372. So when he actually got the ball in play (roughly 70% of the time, 30 K%) he did pretty well. But do you know how likely he is to put that up? I mean, without even using Bayes Theorem or some other likelihood of events reoccurring formula. In 2012, his BABIP was .265. In 2011 it was .304. For 2009 it was .320. But, remember, he doesn't put that ball in play that much. 30% K rate... Here's a link on K rates , HR rates, and batting average. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-strikeouts-stink/ The problem here is, Salty isn't an OBP guy OR a power hitter. The most consistent statistic YoY? Contact % at 90%. Following by SwStr%, Swing %, K%, and so forth. Here's a link for those consistency statistics: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/1/2393318/what-hitting-metrics-are-consistent-year-to-year So Salty swings and misses. A lot. But, he also only plays 120g a year, well only twice (sorry, not a fact based model, just a fact). And by definition, he hasn't had a full season in 7 seasons based on plate appearances (501 needed). I struggle with the idea that someone could give a guy 12.5%+ of your payroll (for an $80M payroll, e.g. Twins) for the next 3 seasons with that kind of production or cost. If he cost 5% of your payroll ($150M total, e.g. Red Sox), sure, it makes more sense in terms of payback ROI. I do stats for a living. I've taught AP Calculus for years before switching into industry to do analytics. Instead of saying something arbitrary that has no real data points or relevance. Please show me your statistics points versus your opinions and projections on me. This isn't SABR where everything has to be a statistic either. I'm a member, so if you are too, maybe we should take our SQL, Excel, R, and head over there instead? And then, just acknowledge what did happen. Salty did sit for 4 of the 6 World Series games. I don't know how that's not an important stat. As Herm Edwards said, "You play to win the game!"

The like is back. And this got a like. Totally agree. And he likewise, took me a bit by surprise. I know his numbers weren't great. But the wrist injury, only 22. He smacked 14 HR in a poor lineup. I can see him hitting 5th after Buxton-Santana/Rosario-Mauer-Sano in 2 years and he'll be getting a lot of pitchers over the plate with men on base to try to stop any further damage. Be nice if Aaron Hicks or Pinto could be a solid #6 hitter as well. Very excited about Arcia after what I saw this year.

With this, I agree. But Salty isn't much better. He's a worse hitter, for sure. Doumit had some injuries last year. He's actually a decent hitter. The premise was that Salty is definitely not that much better than Doumit or even Pinto or even the value that Pinto could be...for $10M annually. It's too much investment for too little return.

[TABLE=width: 206] [/TD][TD]Doumit Salty Year OPS+ OPS+ 2007 110 90 2008 127 90 2009 88 70 2010 100 69 2011 131 95 2012 114 97 2013 96 118 [/TABLE] In all but one year, 2013, Doumit OPS+'d Salty. That is what is most telling(?) Doumit http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml Salty http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml As much as you (or anyone) may hate the small numbers, but the fact is they're the variables that factor into the more advanced metrics.

Way too small of a sample size. A more legitimate sample size. And to those who say...he's only getting better with the Red Sox...consider his K% rates since joining the Red Sox... 401 strikeouts in 1329 Plate Appearances. That's 30.2% of the time he strikes out. His strikeout rate before joining the Red Sox? 26.5%. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml

Exactly. And by no means would I commit more than 10% of the salary to a sub .250, poor defensive catcher who plays at most 120 g a season.

So Pinto will not get better...than his rookie year? The argument was Salty would get better after age 28...(which most catchers decline after 29)... Subjective opinions are one thing...fact based models are another. Simply saying something doesn't make it so. Salty plays at most 120g a year, hits .247 on average. Provides average defense. The Twins will spend...you fill in the blank. $80M? So you would be happy to put 12.5% of that (10/80M) towards a guy who hits below .250 on average and plays less than 75% of the games? Nevermind the Red Sox are letting him go at age 28 when $10M to them is like $5M to us. Makes no sense whatsoever. Unless they're signing someone else out there (if so, who?) who is better (they are THE advanced statistics/metics team in MLB)... One season over .255 doesn't constitute any sort of consistency.

Not a big fan of RBI's as an indicator of performance...

What about passed balls? Are those not the Catcher's fault? He's a league leader or near the top in those...

Josmil Pinto hit .342 and threw out 45% of base runners in his rookie year. Those are the best numbers in MLB for September (the sample size he was in). Salty has never been the best in any month of any season of his career. Pinto is 1 for 1. And he (Pinto) should continue to get better.