I do like your thought process on next year & Bailey. However I think the market will dictate providing a better option to the player than what Lackey accepted. Unless Tanaka isnt posted until next year. The Yankees, who's luxury tax will reset & ARoid will be off the books will throw all kinds of money at Bailey. Next years SP FA is pretty thin. Kershaw - Isnt going anywhere Sherzer - Hard to believe the Fielder trade wasnt a precursor to re signing him Bailey - Reds want him back but may not have the $ without moving Phillips Iwakuma - 34 & a likely resign with M's Lester - probably available Peavy - 34 & not as good as Garza Shields - With what they gave up, they have to sign him Masterson - Garza 2.0 but will cost a pick So basically its going to be Bailey, Masterson, Lester, & Shields who all will require picks & Peavy as the top SP FA options. With a Sabathia, Tanaka, Pineda, Nova rotation the Yanks will be all over Bailey if he hits the market being the clear #1 SP available. That's why I like getting Garza now on a 4 year deal. I think he would even opt out if he didnt vest his 5th year which would almost be a bonus to the Twins. Garza fior 3/30 would bridge the yougsters perfectly plus he wont cost a pick.