Dman

I love the pick! This is the type of player that a number one pick should be, a Buxton type talent that can grow into a super star. BRAVO!

Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at Spring Training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons (counting this one) and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly, he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not less.
 
Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, they know who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation.
 
Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion for the topic: First of all, as the Twins started the season, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season was the question whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, he would be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not a lazy popup or routine fly ball.
 
Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power for his position to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year.
 
As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the call to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000, he slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline.
 
Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating, but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic.
 
Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and a mlb-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans remaining. The question that stems from his performance both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. This seems to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. IMHO, it makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although the end of 2015 and April-May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time.
 
In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball on the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBI or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June has been off the charts.
 
Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showing good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier.
 
Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media.
 
I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, hopefully as he continues to be a Minnesota Twin, but even if he's traded. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.

Here I am
On the road again
There I am
Up on the stage
Here I go
Playin' star(s) again
There I go
Turn the page
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Molitor2011-429x600.jpg
 
It has got to be lonely being Paul Molitor these days. About the only thing separating him from the tortured Bob Seger that penned “Turn the Page” back in 1972 is that he isn’t subjected to riding a bus somewhere east of Omaha with locals at truck stops making snide remarks about his long hair.
 
(This article originally was posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
I’m not sure what he envisioned his life would be like as the manager of the Minnesota Twins when he signed on for the gig after Ron Gardenhire was let go following the 2014 season, but I’d bet every cent I have that he wasn’t expecting this. After all, his Twins are on pace to finish with one of the worst records in Major League Baseball history. Not Twins history, not franchise history, not American League history, but in all of MLB history.
 
This is taking place after a season, in 2015, that many people thought saw the Twins, under Molitor in his first season as a manager at any level, take a significant step forward in terms of competitiveness.
 
Sure, everyone knew there were candidates for regression on the club’s roster and nobody knew what to expect of their imported Korean designated hitter, but there were also players that we felt had reasonable chances to improve their performance levels over what we saw in 2015. Even the most pessimistic among us could not have reasonably expected this to happen.
 
But it has happened. The Twins are 15-37 as they return home to face the Tampa Bay Rays, themselves sitting at the bottom of the American League East standings at the moment.
 
There has been plenty written in the Twins community about what’s gone wrong and what should be done about it. Some of the suggestions have been reasonable, many have not.
 
You can’t trade players for whom there is no market and you can’t really flat out release most of them, either.
 
Most teams won’t fire their manager and/or their general manager during the first two months of the season, especially when that manager is only in his second season at the helm and the general manager has been around forever and is credited with rebuilding a farm system that is acknowledged to be among the best in the game.
 
Typically, you give the guys you left spring training with a couple of months to come around before you go about making significant changes. Your options are limited in April and May, anyway, because few teams are going to be interested in adding noteworthy pieces to their rosters that early, even if you are ready to turn the page sooner than that.
 
But we’re into June now and while most teams still won’t be prepared to make many deals at least until later in the month, it’s time to start initiating those discussions.
 
It is also time to start looking at what you want your roster to look like on Opening Day 2017. If there’s a silver lining to a miserable start like this, it’s that you don’t have to wait until spring training next March to start evaluating your options. You don’t even have to wait until the traditional “September call up” portion of the season. You’ve got a full four months to look at what you’ve got before you have to make decisions about which positions you will need to fill from outside your organization during the offseason.
 
The Twins are likely to lose over 100 games this season. It could be more. It could be a few less, but not a lot less.
It’s time to turn the page.
 
Listen, I like Trevor Plouffe. He has, in my view, turned himself into a more-than-adequate third baseman after nearly playing himself out of baseball at shortstop. He also hits enough that there’s nothing wrong with him being a regular in a Major League lineup.
 
I like Brian Dozier even more. He came to Cedar Rapids in January, 2013, with the first Twins Caravan after the Twins announced they would be affiliating with the local Kernels Class A team and did a great job on the dais. With the personality he showed that night, it came as no surprise to me that he eventually became a fan favorite in the Twin Cities. Like Plouffe, he turned out not to be the answer for the Twins at shortstop, but he transitioned to second base where he has done an excellent job.
 
When Joe Nathan departed, many of us were nervous about whether the Twins would find someone capable of holding down the closer role out of the bullpen. Enter Glen Perkins and the problem was solved.
 
Joe Mauer’s situation would command a full article itself, but his contract and no-trade rights make it a waste of time to even discuss his future with the team for the next couple of seasons.
 
These players, along with a few others perhaps, have had good rides as members of the Twins and they have earned every bit of fan loyalty they get. But the hard truth is that few, if any, of them are going to be part of the next run of winning seasons at Target Field.
 
Already this season, injuries have created opportunities to look at some young players. In most cases, those opportunities were wasted as players like Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler rode the pine during their time filling in for banged up regulars.
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Byron Buxton (Photo: SD Buhr)

Maybe “playin’ stars again” was defensible early in the season when you were still trying to make something of your season, but no longer. It’s time to turn the page.
 
As Ted over at Off the Baggy pointed out this week, with Kepler being promoted again (this time to fill in for the injured Miguel Sano), it’s time to plug Kepler and the also-recently-recalled Byron Buxton into the lineup and let them run.
 
Sano’s hamstring will eventually heal and he’ll return. I find myself agreeing with Howard Sinker of the Star-Tribune who tweeted earlier this week, “Friends, I was less skeptical on it than most of you, but it's time for the Sano-in-right field thing to end. Make something work, #MNTwins.”
 
I really had no issue with putting Sano in the outfield. He’s athletic enough that he should be able to play a passable right field and he has improved out there. But I’ve pulled a hamstring before and I know that, once you do that, it’s pretty easy to do it again. I don’t think putting him back out there when he comes back makes a lot of sense when it’s pretty obvious that it is not going to be his position long-term (and by long-term, we are probably now including 2017).
 
The Twins need to decide where they envision Sano fitting in. Wherever that is, whether it’s third base, first base or simply as their full-time designated hitter, I would just plug him in there when he gets back and move on to the next decision.
 
Bouncing Buxton, Kepler and Polanco up and down between Minneapolis and Rochester should end. Buxton is your center fielder, Kepler is in a corner and Polanco is in the middle of your infield somewhere.
 
I’ve seen others opine that Byung Ho Park should be sent down to Rochester, perhaps to make room for Sano when he comes back. I disagree, unless the Twins are prematurely giving up on him. He will hit AAA pitching, just as he hit Korean pro ball pitching. He needs to learn to hit MLB pitching and if the Twins plan on keeping him, he should stay in the Twins’ lineup until he proves that he can (or can’t).
 
I don’t know if Oswaldo Arcia will be in the Twins outfield for the next few years, but I know Danny Santana and Eduardo Nunez won’t, so Arcia should get more time out there with Buxton and Kepler (unless the Twins decide someone like Adam Bret Walker should get a long look).
 
The same situation exists behind the plate. Kurt Suzuki’s time with the Twins is nearing an end. I don’t know who will take over, but now is the time for the Twins to get extended looks at their internal candidates.
 
You could make similar cases for an overhaul of the pitching staff, but I’d be more patient with promoting the young pitchers, unless you get good offers for some of your existing staff members. I just see less urgency there.
 
Finally, there’s the Molitor question and that is tethered to the Terry Ryan question. Will either, or both, be back in 2017 and beyond?
 
Molitor will be entering the final year of his existing contract in 2017. Typically, no manager likes being a “lame duck” manager. He wants an extension in place before the start of the final year of his deal or he risks losing his clubhouse as players begin to tune his message out as they assume he won’t be around long.
 
Say what you will about the infamous Jim Pohlad patience with his front office, but I think Ryan would have a tough time convincing even Pohlad that Molitor should be rewarded for his work in 2016 with an extension.
 
Of course, that assumes that Ryan will even be around to make that pitch to Pohlad.
 
It’s almost impossible for me to envision Pohlad announcing publicly that he has dismissed Terry Ryan. It is not difficult at all, however, for me to envision an announcement that Terry Ryan has decided that, as the person responsible for assembling the roster, he is ultimately responsible for the results and that he is holding himself accountable and stepping down as GM of the Twins.
 
That public announcement would be identical, by the way, regardless of whether the decision truly is Ryan’s or whether Pohlad makes the decision that it’s time for a change. If you're looking for public executions, you're going to be disappointed.
 
If Ryan is contemplating that this may be his last season in the GM chair, he’s not likely to make a managerial change during the season. If he’s planning on being around a while longer, then yes, he could (and should) be considering whether there’s someone besides Molitor in the organization that he now believes would be a better fit to manage the new group of young players coming up.
 
If indeed Ryan is replaced as the General Manager, it would be much more likely that Molitor also would be replaced following the end of this season. The new GM would want, and should get, his own man to run the team he assembles.
 
Whether these changes in management are made or not should depend solely on whether ownership envisions the current leadership being the right people to guide the team through the next era of competitiveness.
 
Regardless, it is time to begin turning the page. Some of the changes can wait as things play out over the rest of this season and the subsequent offseason, but seeing names like Buxton, Kepler and Polanco consistently in the Twins’ lineup should start now.

Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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Today was the last live game from Fort Myers. Yesterday, I shared some thoughts about the Twins 25-man roster and based on what I have seen previously, Rickey Nolasco should be the Twins' fifth starter. With another stellar performance today against the Rays, going for 6 innings allowing only 3 hits, no earned runs, walking 2 and striking out 7, he cemented that position, especially when in Field number 2 his only competition, Tyler Duffey, allowed two home runs among other hard hit balls this afternoon. Pending a trade, I can see no way that Nolasco will not be in the Twins' rotation, and arguably has pitched pretty well this spring, earning a spot.
 
Glen Perkins' appearance today and the rest of the Spring has been worrisome. His fastball barely reached 91 and his slider 81, and has been batter all over Hammond Stadium without finishing an inning. In 2/3 of an inning he allowed 2 hits and a walk with no strikeouts, adding up to 3 runs. I hope Terry Ryan has a plan B in his back pocket for a closer, because Perkins is continuing his decline from last season second half.
 
As far as position players go, Eduardo Nunez was horrible today: Two errand throws to the first and a dropped ball on a base steal attempt did not help the Twins' cause. Let's call it a hick up and hope that it will not continue to happen.
 
Byron Buxton has a lackluster performance a couple days ago, but today, he made up for it. He has a great running catch in the first innings and also got an infield hit in a ball hit deep in the shortstop, in the same situation he did not previously. I think that he also might be cementing a spot in the 25 man roster.
 
So is Danny Santana, who got an infield hit in a drag bunt, then stole second, and in a play that featured 3 errant throws by Rays scored. Great heads up play, plus his speed and versatility will help.
 
Oswaldo Arcia likely won the last 25 man spot over former hated White Sox player Carlos Quentin. Arcia has been better on the field that Quentin, making some difficult plays, whereas Quentin has no position, and has been better with the stick and the basepaths, stealing a couple of bases so far. I think that Quentin was brought in as a plan B if Byung Ho Park did not pan out right away as a 1B/DH, but this is not the case. So it looks like the Twins' position player side in the 25 man roster is about set. There are still some question-marks in the bullpen, as I indicated yesterday.
 
Next: Catching an airplane up North tomorrow and either later this week or early next will will give my Spring Training Redux and my prediction for the Twins' 2016. Still need to chew on this a bit...

I did something recently that I hadn’t done in probably 15 years.
 
It used to be a habit. In fact, in retrospect, it may have actually become my very first true habit – something I came to feel I needed. Whether it was a good habit or a bad habit is probably open to debate, depending on one’s perspective.
 
(This article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/carlinquote-2-600x400.jpg
 
The habit had its roots in my youth. My dad was a baseball coach, so I spent most of my spring and summer playing or watching baseball. I spent a lot of time around the high school players that my dad coached and wanted to do pretty much anything that would make me feel connected to real ballplayers.
 
I turned five years old during the Minnesota Twins’ first season of existence in 1961 and it was at least indirectly because of the way my friends and I followed that team in the early to mid-60s that we eventually began to spend an increasing percentage of our weekly allowances to feed our mutual habit (remember when kids got allowances that they had to learn to live within each week?).
 
My parents seemed to understand. They were baseball fans, after all, and didn’t want to discourage me from being one, too. Of course, had they known how much money I would eventually spend (arguably, “throw away” might be a more appropriate term) on the habit, they might have more closely supervised or restricted my activities. Then again, people did a lot of things in the 60s that, it turns out, weren’t exactly good ideas.
 
By the late 1980s, I was more heavily involved with the habit and I could see that my own young son was also taking it up. I was even more of an enabler than my own father had been with me. I didn’t even make my son spend his own money to get started on the habit, I covered a significant portion of the financial commitment necessary to get him hooked.
 
By the mid 1990s, my son and I were both putting money into buying baseball cards.
 
He graduated from high school in 2001 and I’m not sure how much he has continued to spend on the habit, but I’m certain he hasn’t kept up with the levels we did when he was younger.
 
Personally, I have picked up a pack once in a great while, but I hadn’t bought a full multi-pack hobby box of cards for a very long time – until now.
 
I don’t know what made me backslide. I could probably blame it on the idleness that comes with having retired from my day-job, leading me to spend too many of my cold (and not-so-cold) winter days in bored hibernation. But the honest truth is, I just wanted to do it.
 
I wanted to buy a box of cards and spend some time opening every pack, looking to see what superstars might emerge as I tore open the packs and thumbed my way through the individual cards - just the way I did when I was eight years old and hoping to find a Harmon Killebrew or Tony Oliva, while I combed past the checklists and the inevitable Bill Monbouquette card that seemed to be present in every pack.
 
And it felt good. Very good. Maybe dangerously good, for a guy who’s facing a future of living on a relatively fixed (and potentially decreasing) retirement income.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/BuxtonCorreaCard-2-600x400.jpg
Nice card. Now if it had just been autographed by both of these guys...

I’m not sure what caused me to backslide. I think perhaps a couple pictures of new cards found their way into my Twitter timeline, triggering a previously buried subliminal command that forced me to spend time entering various baseball card-related phrases into my search engine of choice that day. At least I’ll blame it on Twitter. I blame a lot of things on Twitter, after all.
 
In the end, I decided to order a box of 2012 Panini Extra Edition Elite cards. Honestly, until the day I ordered them, I hadn’t heard of Panini baseball cards. It turns out, though, that they issue sets of prospect cards each year and the fact that they supposedly included six autographed cards in each hobby box (20 packs with 5 cards per pack) was a selling point.
 
I figured the 2012 set might include some of the first three classes of Twins-affiliated Cedar Rapids Kernels that I've gotten to know during the past three seasons.
 
The box arrived Thursday morning. It was smaller than I envisioned it being, but I got past that. Alas, many things from the days of our youth seemed bigger than they really were, in retrospect.
 
I opened the box and gave some thought about how I wanted to proceed with opening the packs. I considered opening just three or four packs a day, spreading out the fun of opening them over the course of at least a few days.
 
Yeah, that didn’t happen. I opened the first 10 packs in just minutes, coming across four autographs and a handful of other special “numbered series” cards in the process. I paused at that point to get a drink and look up the names of a couple of the unfamiliar guys I now had autographs of.
 
I’m not too proud to admit there were a couple of well-regarded prospects in 2012 that I had no recollection of ever hearing about (but I’m also not going to open myself up to public humiliation by admitting exactly who they were).
 
After acquainting myself with those players, I ripped into the remaining 10 packs.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/KyleTuckerCard-2-600x400.jpg
About the time this card was being released, Kyle Tucker was turning 15 years old. Three years later he became the Astros' 2015 first round draft choice (5th overall).

I ended up with seven autograph cards (one more than the promised six - bonus!) and my hopes concerning picking up a few former Kernels/Future Twins were also realized. Among them were Luke Bard, Adam (sans Brett) Walker, Mason Melotakis and J.O. (a.k.a. Jose) Berrios.
 
Twins pitching prospect J.T. Chargois showed up in a pack, as well, though he never had the honor of wearing a Kernels jersey.
 
None of the autograph cards were Twins prospects, but I did get a “Building Blocks” card featuring the Astros’ Carlos Correa and Twins uber-prospect Byron Buxton.
 
Maybe best of all, there wasn’t a Bill Monbouquette in the entire box. In fact, I only had a total of three duplicate cards. (if you're a particular fan of Joe DeCarlo, Brett Mooneyham or Matt Price, let me know and I'll hook you up with a card.)
 
As I write this, probably three hours or so after opening the last pack of the box, I’m left to wonder what this all means.
 
I want to convince myself that this was a one-time thing – that buying one box of cards doesn’t mean I’m destined to relapse into the full depths of another epoch of card-collecting. I’m just not sure that even I would believe that.
 
If you should hear that I’ve decided to take my 401(k) money in a single lump sum, please pray for me.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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Earlier this week, and lost among winning the rights to negotiate with Buyng Ho Park, trading Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka, and Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy, the Twins signed LHP Dan Ruzler to a Minor League Contract. I broke the news here, but did not have much time for analysis, since the other events happened, so here it is.
 
The transaction seems pretty unremarkable, reading something like this: The Twins have signed LHP Dan Runzler from the Sugar Land Skeeters of the Atlantic League and have assigned him to AAA Rochester Red Wings. Dan Rusler is not Andrew Albers or Kaleb Thielbar, a couple of unremarkable Twins' minor league free agents originating from the independent leagues and playing in the majors during the Twins' recent dark years. Who is Dan Runzler and why I am so sure that he might actually be a factor? First things first:
 
Dan Runzler is 30 years old, listed at 6'4" and 230 lbs (but his physique looks a lot like that of former Twins' Tyler Robertson; think NFL defensive end.) He is from Santa Monica, CA, and was drafted by the San Fransisco Giants from the University or Riveside, CA, in the 9th round of the 2007 draft. At Riverside in his junior (last) season, he was a swingman, staring 10 games (including a complete game) and relieving in 12. He did have an electric fastball in college and added a devastating slider in the Giants' minors, allowing him to make the jump in the majors in 2009, just 2 seasons after he was drafted. After that season he was listed as high as number 4 in the Giant's prospect lists. Baseball America had him at number 5 with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler ahead of him. So he was a highly regarded prospect.
 
2010, the season that the Giants won it all, he was an integral part of their bullpen and has a World Series ring to prove it. The local press held him in the same regard (as a potential closer) with Sergio Romo and Jeremy Afeldt. Not a shabby company to have, especially if you can back it up on the mount with a plus plus 95-97 mph Fastball and a 85-88 mph slider, producing a 25.7% K-rate (resulting to 10.2 K/9) and a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Think of Fransisco Liriano before elbow problems. That season he had a 3.03 ERA and 3.14 FIP. So what happened? A couple of things: Ruzler has always been somewhat wild and the command of his slider has been inconsistent. Even in the 2010 season, he had a 5.5 BB/9 and 1.500 WHIP (even with a below average .250 BABIP.) Later in the season he had a knee injury that made him go to a couple of rehab stints and was caught in the numbers game for a team that was after (and won) a World Series. By 2011 he was bypassed in the depth charts in a highly competitive team and a bad shoulder and lat injury, in his words, "subconsciously made him change his mechanics". In the same piece he called his command problems in 2010 and before, "mental issues".
 
At that point he was demoted. Regardless the source of his problems, he never made it back, optioned a couple of times and finally outrighted on September of 2013. The Giants released him in July of 2014 to play in Japan. For some reason he never made it. Last season he hooked up as a free agent with the Diamondbacks where he pitched in 39 games (37.7 IP) for the AAA Reno Aces of the Pacific Coast League. His ERA was 5.26 (3.86 FIP), WHIP 2.02 (but an outlandish .407 BABIP.) He walked 28 (6.7 BB/9) and struck out 40 (9.6 K/9.) Encouragingly, his K% was 21.6% and he was close to 3:1 in Ground outs : Fly outs. He finished the season playing 19 games (17.1 IP) with Sugar Land of the Atlantic league, where he put insane (but almost irrelevant) numbers: 0.52 ERA, 3 BB (1.6 BB/9), 20 K (10.4 K/9), and 0.865 WHIP. The one number that is of interest here is the walk number, which is stellar. And this is a number for which competition does not matter than much because you either throw strikes, or you don't.
 
I think that Runzler might be a great signing for the Twins. Clearly, his issues with command are mechanical and mental. And he admitted that. The fact that he was not throwing as many balls while playing at Sugar Land, makes me think that he was not thinking too hard, and just throwing in that level. Can he do this come Spring Training, and hopefully in the majors, for the Twins? Can the Twins help his mechanics? Two very important questions to answer, but lefties who throw 97 mph Fastballs and 88 mph Sliders do not grow on trees, esp. when that repertoire results in 11 K/9 and 2-3:1 GB:FB out ratio and a .212/.282/.263 slash line (his career number) from left hand hitters.
 
http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Dan+Runzler+San+Francisco+Giants+v+Houston+mSyT7FYmdcll.jpg
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I've been a Twins fan my whole life. About 6 years ago I started paying more attention to the minor league system, and found myself getting excited about the potential of young guys. As I started to pay more attention, I found myself looking further down the pipeline to the Dominican Summer League stats to see who might be the next guys to show up on prospect lists. Of course information is pretty scarce on a majority of these players and scouting reports seems non-existent except for the higher bonus guys. While scouting box scores and stat lines is always precarious, one guy caught my eye. That player was mentioned by Miguel Sano as one to watch for this most recent spring - Alexis Tapia. Tapia will likely be heading to the Appy League next week, but has pitched 2 innings in relief for Fort Myers this year as well. And while he certainly has a work a lot to prove given that he is still in the rookie levels, I am pleased to see him getting some attention.
 
Why did he catch my eye in 2013 in the DSL box scores? A combination of his size (6'2" 190ish) and an excellent K/BB ratio (31/5). Tapia showed well in the GCL last year as well and hopefully the 19 year old will continue to develop and give Twins fan another pitcher to dream on.
 
As I look at this years DSL squad and some of the early season returns, there are a few pitchers with similar characteristic to those that drew my attention to Tapia. Of course, we are still dealing with extremely small sample sizes, but so far so good. While Huascar Ynoa gets more attention due to his larger signing bonus, here are a few others to keep an eye on: (Click on their name to go to their respective MILB player pages)
 
Brusdar Graterol : The 6' 1" 180lb Venezuelan righty has pitched 10 innings across 3 outings and amassed 15 strikeouts to just 1 walk, an impressive start for the youngster who is still only 16 years old!
 
Carlos Suniaga : Another Venezuelan righty, Suniaga turned 18 last month and is 6'2" 187. In 12.2 innings he has struck out 11 and walked only 1.
 
Miguel De Jesus : Miguel is a bit older at 19 and comes from the Dominican Republic. He's 6'2" 175 and also throws right handed. He has been dominant though, with 22 K's and only 1 BB in 15.2 innings. His WHIP is a ridiculous 0.45 and he has yet to allow a run. Due to his older age, perhaps we could see De Jesus make a few appearances in the GCL this season.
 
Luis Bellorin : Luis is another Venezuelan. He's 17 years old 6'1" 167. He's a bit smaller and his walk numbers aren't quite as good as the others on this list. In 14.1 innings, he has walked 6 and struck out 12. Again, the numbers aren't quite as exciting, Luis is unique to the others in an exciting way due to the fact that he's a southpaw.
 
It will be interesting to see how these young guys develop. Obviously, they've got a long way to go to even get on the prospect radar, let alone a big league roster. However, their numbers this year suggest the Twins have done a pretty good job of adding some upside arms in the international market.

Tyler Jay is a left-handed pitcher from the University of Illinois and was taken with the 6th overall pick of the 2015 First-Year Player Draft by the Minnesota Twins. Born on April 19th, 1994, Jay is currently 6'1" and 180 lbs. He was lightly recruited in 2012 when he pitched for Lemont High School in suburban Illinois, but he was not drafted and went on to pitch for the University of Illinois, who he committed to because they were the only school willing to let him continue to pitch; most other schools wanted him to switch to the outfield as he hit .484 with 11 doubles and 35 RBI in his senior year, but he wanted to stay on the mound.

http://theblogdaysofsummer.weebly.com/uploads/5/3/9/7/53971721/338680879.jpg
Image Courtesy of RantSports.com


 
As a freshman at Illinois, Jay was thrown into the bullpen mix where he made 18 appearances and went 1-3 with a 3.10 ERA while striking out 20 in 20.1 innings pitched. The following year he emerged as the team's closer, earning a perfect 10 saves out of as many opportunities and posting a 1.94 ERA with 47 strikeouts over 41.2 innings to earn second-team All-Big Ten honors.
 
Playing for the U.S. Collegiate National Team last summer, Jay was teammates with Vanderbilt's Dansby Swanson and Carson Fulmer, UC-Santa Barbara's Dillon Tate, and Louisiana State's Alex Bregman, among others. He made a team-high 15 appearances, picking up 2 wins and 1 save while striking out 21 in 16.2 scoreless innings. His performance threw him into the limelight for draft prospects and made him a potential first-round pick for 2015.
 
This season Jay went 5-2 with 14 saves and 76 strikeouts in 66.2 innings pitched, allowing only 8 earned runs for a 1.08 ERA. He made one start in the first week of the season, throwing five shutout innings against Lamar, but then moved to the bullpen and helped lead the Fighting Illini to a 27-game winning streak at one point in the season. He was named the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year and was a Louisville Slugger First-Team All-American.
 
Though Tyler Jay has been touted as a closer, it's important to not shut out the possibility of him moving back into a rotation at some point in his near future. In college he pitched 3-4 innings to close out games on several occasions, and the tools he needs to be a starter at the next level are definitely there.
 
Here is Jay's scouting report from MLB's 2015 Prospect Watch:
 
"Jay drew little attention from scouts as an Illinois high schooler in 2012, when he was a slight southpaw who topped out at 90 mph. His fastball and profile have taken off since he went to college, and he helped the Fighting Illini win 27 straight games this spring after starring with the U.S. collegiate national team last summer. Now he's a lock to become the second first-round pick ever produced by Illinois, following John Ericks in 1988, and he's the consensus best left-hander in the 2015 Draft.
 
"He is still not very physical at 6-foot-1 and 175 pounds, but Jay now works at 93-95 mph and peaks at 98 mph with his fastball, even when he works on consecutive days. He generates that heat with athleticism and a quick arm rather than an excessive amount of effort in his delivery.
 
"Jay has a deeper repertoire than most relievers. His plus slider is his second-best pitch, and he also has a curveball with power and depth and shows signs of interesting changeup. He has enough pitches and control to lead a pro team to consider trying him as a starter, though he lacks size and could speed to the Majors if he remains a reliever."
 
Twins scouting director Deron Johnson believes that Jay can be converted to a starter. In an article on Fox Sports North, author Tyler Mason included part of an interview with Johnson:
 
"We definitely believe he's got a legitimate chance to start," Johnson said. "The kid's really strong....He's got really good makeup. I'm really excited."
 
Jay has a plus-fastball that sits around 92-95 mph and a plus-slider reaching 87-89 mph, as well as a changeup at 85-88 mph. While his fastball might not have wicked speed, Tyler's curveball was arguably the best pitch in the entire draft and has been compared to Clayton Kershaw's. The continued development of his changeup will likely wind up being the determining factor in whether he ends up starting long term.
 
Deron Johnson believes that there is a chance Jay could start at Low-A Cedar Rapids. It is possible that the Twins end up rushing him into the majors to pitch from the bullpen this year and then send him back to the minors to stretch out as a starter. The Royals did this successfully last year with Brandon Finnegan, and with their surprise run in May, the Twins have placed themselves in a similar situation. While I wouldn't say I am completely in favor of this idea, if it worked out as well as it did for the Royals, that would be nothing to complain about. He has the stuff to compete at a high level, and it's going to be a lot of fun seeing what comes of it.
 
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Read full entry here:
Introducing Twins' 1st round pick: Tyler Jay

The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Minnesota Twins last night. The Royals had already won the first two games of a series which was deemed crucial to who would ultimately win the AL Central, and we were down 7-1 going into the bottom of the 8th in the last game of the series. Luke Hovechar had just inherited the mound from Edinson Volquez, and Trevor Plouffe was in the batter's box with a 2-2 count. Mark Ripperger, the home plate umpire, was hoping that the game would end quickly and according to schedule so he could keep a date he was set for later that night.
 
Grim melancholy hovered like an evil being over the stricken multitude. The Twins had been in a slump for the past week, and they couldn't see how they could come back and win a game when down by six runs with only two innings to go. In the deepest depths of despair, a straggling few got up from the stands and returned to the miseries of everyday life, preferring that to seeing their team lose yet another game without even putting up a fight as they went. The rest clung to that hope which springs eternal in the human breast; it was dismally whispered from person to person that the game wasn't over until it was over, and they might as well stick it out and see what happened next.
 
Much to the fans' delight and Ripperger's dismay, Trevor Plouffe proceeded to tear the cover off the ball; when the dust had lifted and you could see what had occurred, there was Trevor crossing home, and the ball was a souvenir somewhere beyond the fence in that land known as left field. Then from 28,000 throats and more there rose a lusty yell; the Plouffe birds shrieked and hollered, and the sound which emitted from their throats rumbled across the city and is even rumored to have been heard in numerous quiet living rooms stationed at various points all across the nation. Mark Ripperger began to worry just a little that the inning could turn into one of those blowout innings when the team just can't seem to stop scoring runs, and the worst thing about it was that it wasn't late enough in the game for it to automatically end after the Twins took the lead.
 
Nervously wiping his perspiring hands on his already grubby black pants, Ripperger did a few hasty mental calculations. He knew the rule that states that balls and strikes cannot be contested beyond a little dugout and on-the-field chatter, and he also remembered that that can be taken care of quite easily and (here lies his mistake) with little to-do, so he decided that the easiest way out of it would be to widen his strike zone by just a little and ring the proceeding batters up to end the inning before anything disastrous happened. He had already earned himself a reputation behind the plate in years past, and he didn't think that anyone would notice anything out of the ordinary as long as he kept it looking pretty consistent.
 
Accompanied by the shouts of the ever faithful, Torii Hunter stepped into the batter's box and took a few practice swings. He was already 0-2 with a strikeout on the game, but he intended to extend Plouffe's favor and get the team on an absolute role. Like the fans, he knew that no game is ever over until it's over, and based on that knowledge, he believed that the Twins would have had a chance even if they happened to be down 12-0 in the 9th. However, he also knew that it could very well depend on him to get the rest of his teammates going.
 
56,000 eager eyes were glued on him as he rubbed his hands with dirt; 28,000 eager tongues applauded when he wiped them on his shirt. In came the first pitch, and it was called a ball. As Ripperger stepped back from the plate he thought remorsefully to himself that he couldn't help that one; it was just too obvious to call it anything else, and he was sure to have plenty of opportunities later in the count. He watched as Perez threw the ball back to Hovechar, and then, while the writhing pitcher ground the ball into his hip, the quartet set up once more, this time with a 1-0 count. Once again the leather sphere came hurtling through the air, and, in haughty grandeur, Hunter let it fly past unheeded.
 
"That ain't my style," said he, but Ripperger bellowed, "Strike one!" and tossed his fist into the air.
 
Then from the stands, not yet void of loyal patrons of the game, there arose a muffled roar which resembled the beating of the storm-waves upon a stern and distant shore. "Kill him! Kill the umpire!" shouted someone from behind home plate - and it's likely they'd have listened had not Torii turned and, with a smile of Christian charity, stilled the rising tumult with a gesture of his hand. The game resumed and Torii raised his bat; signaling the pitcher, he waited until the spheroid flew by again, but, as before, he ignored it; the umpire shouted gleefully, "Strike two!"
 
"Fraud!" cried the maddened crowd, and the echo answered, "Fraud!" - and this time Torii reacted. No likening to a charitable smile flickered across his visage as he turned upon the ump, and with controlled politeness he proceeded to question Ripperger's salary, manhood, and vision. Of course, being an umpire, Ripperger decided to take it personally, and he curtly bid Torii hold his tongue and finish his at-bat.
 
As Torii turned back to face the pitcher, he thought he discerned the words from Ripperger's mouth as he breathed heavily down Salvador's neck: "Just wait; you'll see me deal with this good-for-nothing smart aleck." On hearing this, the sneer disappeared from Torii's lip and was replaced with teeth clenched in hate as he pounded with cruel violence his bat upon the plate.
 
And now the pitcher held the ball...and now he let it go...and leaning over Perez's back, Ripperger called Torii out on balls. Down went the bat and Torii was upon the umpire before he could even stop and congratulate himself on his success. However, with visible effort Torii restrained himself and managed to keep relatively cool while speaking the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth (meanwhile dropping in a few magic words in appropriate places where they seemed to best belong). Rippenger had never seen the likes of it before, and will probably never see it again, either. Strongly sympathizing with his sorry self and letting his growing hatred for Torii get the better of him once more, he tore off his mask and tossed Hunter from the game.
 
Now from the dugout came the skipper of the Twins. He knew that the umpire was getting out of control, and it was his duty as the oldest, wisest, and most mature man present to maintain the order at Target Field. He marched up to Ripperger and started to ask him to explain himself, but before he had a chance to get the first three words past his lips and to Ripperger's unwilling ear, he had been ejected as well.
 
The scene that followed will go down in the books as one of the better post-ejection performances in the history of baseball. Tearing off his elbow pad, shin guard, and batting gloves, Torii hurled them one by one onto the ground near where Ripperger had been standing just moments before. As he dismissed each article as unworthy of adorning his infuriated being, the shouts from the stands grew louder. Here, they thought, was something worth seeing, sweep or no sweep. It wasn't every day that they got to see their rookie skipper ejected, and, even more interesting, they would never have thought ten minutes previously that they might get to see a major leaguer undress on the field...much less Torii Hunter. So amid combined boos and giggles, Torii clutched at the ends of his jersey and pulled it over his head. With a few more choice words of spiteful derision, he tossed it away as a final hurrah and returned to the dugout unassisted.
 
Thus ends our story. I must say that I am impressed with Torii's rant. He carried it on just long enough to keep people excited and wondering what would happen next, but at the same time he stopped before anyone dreamed of turning their eyes to the night sky and therefore missing part of the enactment. He had left a lasting impression, and that was the whole point. He had a perfectly legitimate undershirt which could have joined the pile of dirty laundry, but he wisely chose to let it stop at that. He could have kept on going until he ran out of resources, but he knew that that would spoil the whole effect. It was better to leave while his antics were still being appreciated and just give the cameraman one parting glance as he stepped down into the dugout that said plainer than words, "You've had your fun, and now you're done." The man is a true genius; the Twins will be wise to make him their general manager when he grows up.
 
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Read full entry here:
Torii at the Bat

Yesterday the Twins completed their 40 round draft, and picked up some promising players throughout the draft, but signablity could be an issue for some. Here is a review of the 40 picks:
 
Tyler Jay - Left Handed Pitcher - Illinois
Jay is a quick to the big leagues type reliever who will be converted to a starter next year, he has great stuff, and I considered him the second best pitcher in the class.
 
http://twinsdaily.com/blog/531/entry-6569-tyler-jay-2015-mlb-draft/
 

 
Kyle Cody - Right Handed Pitcher - Kentucky
Cody is a huge pitcher who has great stuff, but battled command this year. He will be given the chance to start, and if he can harness his command he could be a huge steal, but if he can't he will move to the bullpen, where he could end up being a real good power arm.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiC9pvwi0xI
 
Travis Blankenhorn - Third Base - PA High School
Blankenhorn is a left handed hitter with a good approach who was a shortstop in high school, but will move to third or a corner outfield spot as a pro, he has been given Alex Gordon comps, and he should hit for both average and power at the next level.
 

 
Trey Cabbage - Third Base - TN High School
Cabbage was the second prep third basemen taken by the Twins, and he also is a a very good left handed hitter, although he is not as good of a defender as Blankenhorn, he has more power potential.
 

 
Alex Robinson - Left Handed Pitcher - Maryland
Robinson is a power arm out of the bullpen, who throws into the upper nineties, but has struggled with command.
 
Chris Paul - Outfield - California
Senior sign who played well in the Northwoods league last year, he also hit .313 during he senior year.
 
Jovani Moran - Left Handed Pitcher - PR Academy
Moran is a projectable lefty who sits 88-90 with a good changeup.
 

 
Kolton Kendrick - First Base - LA High School
Kendrick has some of the best power in the class, and has gotten comparisons to Mark McGwire, he will be limited to first, and has raised questions about his ability to hit, but he will always be a power threat.
 

 
LaMonte Wade - Outfield - Maryland
Wade is a solid hitter who can play a good center field, he has deceptive speed, and has a good throwing arm.
 

 
Sean Miller - Shortstop - South Carolina - Aiken
Miller was one of the better defensive shortstops in the class, and is a good runner, but he has a light bat.
 
Kerby Camacho - Catcher - PR Academy
Camacho is a switch hitting catcher who has both a good bat and fine receiving skills.
 

 
Zander Wiel - First Base - Vanderbilt
Wiel had a great year hitting cleanup for Vanderbilt, showing potential to hit for average and power, he can also run fairly well for a first baseman, stealing 13 bases, plus he should be able to play corner outfield.
 

 
Cody Stashak - Right Handed Pitcher - St. Johns (NY)
 

 
AJ Murray - Catcher - Georgia Tech
Murray can hit, according to Deron Johnson, and he showed that during his senior year, hitting 15 home runs.
 

 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGPHyZpdzPQ
 
Anthony McIver - Left Handed Pitcher - San Diego
McIver spent his college career at three different colleges. He is a senior sign.
 
Lean Marrero - Outfield - PR Academy
 
Nate Gercken - Right Handed Pitcher - Academy of Arts University (CA)
Gercken is a huge righty who throws a really good sinker. He is a senior sign.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvnJ3A9-DQ4
 
Daniel Kihle - Outfield - Wichita State
Kihle profiles as a center fielder, and can run the bases well.
 
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v147396783/draft-report-daniel-kihle
 
Kyle Wilson - Right Handed Pitcher - MO High School
Wilson throws a mid nineties fastball and a really good curve.
 
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v132092183/draft-report-kyle-wilson-hs-pitcher
 
Colton Eastman - Right Handed Pitcher - CA High School
Eastman may be a tough sign, but he has a three pitch mix, and it would be great if the Twins could sign him.
 
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v130722883
 
Kamran Young - Outfield - Cal State - Dominguez Hills
Young is a senior sign, he played well in his junior year after transferring from College of the Canyons.
 
Blake Cederlind - Right Handed Pitcher - Merced College (CA)
Cederlind did not have a good year, but hits 94, so the Twins decided to take a gamble.
 
Alex Perez - Shortstop - Virginia Tech
Another senior sign who had a solid college career.
 
Jaylin Davis - Outfield - Appalachian State
Davis is a junior who had limited playing time this year, but he is known for his speed.
 
Logan Lombana - Right Handed Pitcher - Cal State - Long Beach
Lombana is a reliever.
 
Tyler Williams - Outfield - AZ High School
Williams' dad is a Twins scout, and he is considered a potential five tool talent.
 
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v141615983/draft-report-tyler-williams
 
Dalton Sawyer - Left Handed Pitcher - Minnesota
Johnson said they plan on using Sawyer as a reliever.
 
Jonathan Englemann - Outfield - CA High School
Englemann is another potential five tool player, but he will be a tough sign.
 
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v132126083/draft-report-jonathan-engelmann-hs-outfielder
 
Brad Hartong - Catcher - Indiana
Hartong is a five year senior.
 
Greg Popylisen - Outfield - El Paso Community College
Popylisen can fly, and was drafted because of his speed.
 
Tristan Pompey - Outfield - ON High School
Pompey is the brother of Dalton Pompey, and some say he has more tools, but it is unlikely that he will sign.
 
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v150300983/draft-report-tristan-pompey
 
Andrew Vazquez - Left Handed Pitcher - Westmont College (CA)
Vazquez is a senior sign.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-X62A-Twwo
 
Colin Theroux - Catcher - San Joaquin Delta College (CA)
 
Brian Olson - Catcher - Seattle University
 
Hector Lujan - Right Handed Pitcher - Westmont College (CA)
 
Rich Condeelis - Right Handed Pitcher - University of Pittsburgh
 
Jake Irvin - Right Handed Pitcher - MN High School
The only Minnesota prep player taken in the draft, Irvin will likely attend college.
 
Alex McKenna - Outfield - CA High School
 
Daniel Tillo - Left Handed Pitcher - IA High School
 
Max Cordy - Right Handed Pitcher - University of California Davis

Going in to this weekend’s series against the Milwaukee Brewers, our Minnesota Twins are 11 games over .500, sitting atop the American League Central Division (barely) with a 32-21 record.
 
Naturally, after the four year run of futility Twins fans have endured coming in to the current season, the main topic of conversation in the Twins community revolves around, “is this for real or are they going to crash and burn?”
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/MayST15a-600x400.jpg
Trevor May (photo: SD Buhr)

Being more than ten games over the break-even point a couple of months in to the season is rarified air for the Twins this decade. In fact, it’s relatively rare for any team to work their way more than ten games above .500 by June 4 in any recent year.
 
When you look at the results for other teams that have managed to win ten more games than they’ve lost as of this date, you can find some cause for optimism – but you can also find a cautionary tale or two, as well.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
 
A year ago, four teams found themselves on June 4 with records showing at least ten more wins than losses. Those teams were the Giants, Athletics, Brewers and Blue Jays.
 
That’s not exactly encouraging news for Twins fans. Two of those teams, the Giants and A’s, hung on to claim wild card spots. The other two failed to make the postseason at all.
 
In 2013, seven teams streaked out to early success in the first two months of the season. Boston, Texas, Oakland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all sat at least ten games over the .500 mark as of June 4.
 
Four of those teams would ultimately claim Division championship banners, three scraped in to a wild card spot and one, the Rangers, failed to make the postseason (and even they did play a "game 163"). That’s obviously a more encouraging precedent for Twins fans to focus on than the 2014 season.
 
Only the Dodgers had at least ten more wins than losses on June 4, 2012, and they fell short of postseason qualification.
 
In 2011, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Cleveland were ten games over .500 on June 4. The Phillies won their division, the Cards were a wild card team and the Tribe were left on the outside looking in at playoff time.
 
In 2010, the Rays, Yankees and Padres all were at least ten games above the .500 mark on this date. Tampa Bay won their division, the Evil Empire claimed the wild card and the Padres were left out. In fairness, however, if today’s two-wild card format had been in effect in 2010, San Diego would have qualified for the second National League wild card spot.
 
(The Twins, in their final "good" season before the sucking years, were nine games over .500 on June 4, 2010.)
Add all of that up and you get a pretty interesting – and even – mix of results for teams that were, on this date, in a situation similar to where the Twins find themselves today.
 
Six of 18 teams won their division. Six of 18 claimed wild card spots. Six of 18 were left out in the cold.
 
Of the six teams who failed to make the postseason after their early-season success, two of them did go on to win at least 90 games. The 2010 Padres won 90 and, as mentioned, would have claimed a second wild card spot had the format been the same as what’s in place today. The 2013 Rangers won 91 games and lost a “play-in” game to the Rays.
 
The other four non-qualifiers ended up with 86 (2012 Dodgers), 83 (2014 Blue Jays), 82 (2014 Brewers) and 80 (2011 Indians) games.
 
We all want to believe in the Twins success. We look at the potential to add a front line pitcher to the rotation in Ervin Santana and see possibilities of additional help from young players on the verge of making their big league debuts. We hope to see some guys improve to counter what’s likely to be some regression to the mean among other players.
 
But, after four years of frustration, it’s hard for some of us to allow ourselves to become wholly emotionally invested in the Twins again, despite the surprisingly hot start.
 
That said, coming in to the season most of us would have been more than pleased with an 81-81 Twins record at the end of 2015. Considering that only one of 18 teams in the past five years that accomplished what the Twins have accomplished so far failed to finish with at least 81 wins, it’s hard for me not to start getting pretty excited.
 
Maybe – just maybe – that’s okay.

It may mean a bunch of losses in 2015, but the Twins need to use their next season to evaluate what they have. Next off-season, they can look at the trade and free agent market and search for a way to supplement their 25-man roster, but for now, they need to commit to the youth movement. I'll take a look at the players who deserve an extended look in each area of the Twins roster.
 
Starting Rotation: Obviously, Hughes and Nolasco are not going anywhere. I think Gibson is a breakout candidate and could prove to be something special. On top of those three, I would choose May and Meyer to fill out my rotation. If the Twins are ever going to compete, they need to know if either of those pitchers will ever become a front-of-the-rotation arm. This doesn't leave room for a free-agent acquisition. I agree the Twins would probably win an additional handful of games if they signed Justin Masterson to a 1-year deal, but then either May or Meyer ends up in AAA. That's not how a youth movement is supposed to go. The Twins will still have Milone and Darnell who could fill in if injury arises. If Meyer doesn't have what it takes to succeed, I'd rather know that after a poor 2015 then part way into 2016.
 
Bullpen: The bullpen needs to have some turn-over this year. I would have no problem with the Twins trading/non-tendering Swarzak and Duensing and I believe Burton will be gone once the Twins buy out his contract. I would formulate a bullpen with Perkins, Fien, Darnell, Pressly, Pryor, Pelfrey, Tonkin and Theilbar. I would also make sure Achter and Oliveros get an extended look at some point. This will not be the best bullpen in baseball, but Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, and Zack Jones will be here by season's end. Even if they don't all pan out, I expect at least two of them to show immediate success. The Twins would then need to know who stays and who goes amongst the others. 2015 is the year to figure that out.
 
Infield: Santana needs to be the shortstop. If that's actually going to be his position, the Twins need to see how he handles it full time. Dozier and Plouffe could end up becoming two of Minnesota's best trade candidates, especially if Sano and Polanco both show major league success toward the end of 2015. Of course, Mauer isn't going anywhere and Vargas will get the majority of DH at bats. This year is also Pinto's change to show whether he can be the catcher of the future; I think we'll know by season's end. There are not as many questions about the infield as other aspects of the team.
 
Outfield: I don't understand the idea that the Twins should trade Arcia. I agree he isn't the best outfielder in the world, but I would argue he's the only outfielder that isn't a total question mark going into 2015. CF and LF are sort of a mess, so why trade Arcia and make RF a mess, too? For CF and LF, I think the Twins can patch together enough success to survive 2015. Schafer should be retained for another season, as he plays pretty good defense and runs well. Other than that, I would give Hicks, Rosario, Danny Ortiz, and eventually Buxton opportunities this year. I could even see Rosario being the Twins opening day CF this season. If Hicks, Rosario, and Ortiz fail and Buxton isn't ready, the Twins can ride with Parmelee in LF until someone hits the waver wire without it being the end of the world.
 
Overall, 2015 might be a struggle, like Terry Ryan suggested, but it could help the team in the long run to just play the group they already have. Once the Twins know what they have in their top prospects, they will be in a better position to pursue talent on the free agent and trade markets to supplement what they already have.

The trade deadline is looming over the heads of Twins fans right now. Like a honed knife's edge, like a hunter's net, like a disapproving parent at the doorway of a kegger thrown by their independent child: it's looming.
 
At least that's my feeling. And I admit it's a weird one. After all the Twins are sellers (again) in a seller's market (witness the hauls for relatively unimpressive talents thus far). We should be confident. We should be beaming with pride. We should be the belle of the ball, fending off suitors for our valuable assets. Sure they aren't that valuable, but who cares? It's the trade deadline, value is inflated and we've got what other teams want.
 
So why does the deadline worry me so much?
 
Because I feel like we need to get something great out of it, far more than any contending team does.
 
Because I feel like we need a win. And if they aren't coming from the field, then they need to come from the smoke-filled rooms where deals are made. (Though I suppose, since smoking bans went into effect the rooms are probably just filled with smug self-importance.)
 
 
It's not that surprising or worrying that the Twins are sellers. It's not surprising that the season is in tatters and we're all debating what they can steal from some desperate rival's hands. What is surprising is that I'm nervous about it, and I'm all too resigned to seeing the deadline pass with another unimpressive whimper.
 
I'm still working on getting pictures to transfer clearly--so If you like pictures with your words you can check out the same post on our personal website.
 
After three years of supporting management's decisions, I'm dumbstruck. I've supported patience and measured responses. I've supported building from within. I've supported the cautious investments in low-end free agents. But now I've got nothing, and I'm desperate.
 
I can't figure out why woefully struggling players trot out to the field long past their sell-by date. I've got no idea why our young players are accepted as consistently inconsistent. And I'm at an utter loss to understand why prospects are left to languish in the minor leagues when there's no better rival for the position in the bigs.
 
In short. I'm a Twins fan. And I am desperate.
 
We need a win here. We didn't just lose 7 games on the home stand. We lost a year of development for Sano. We lost half-a-year for Buxton. We lost a couple months of Meyer and May learning the big league routine. We lost a chunk of cash on Pelfry and Nolasco. We lost the feel good memories of Bartlett, Kubel and Matty G. We lost the hope of a consistent Arcia, a burgeoning Pinto, a resilient Hicks. We are in a constant state of losing Joe Mauer: day by day, sore inch by sore inch, percentage point by percentage point, insult by insult...until, I'm convinced, some day he wakes up and either can't play or can't wait to play anywhere but here.
 
We might be the unluckiest team in baseball, but right now we are definitely losers. And we're starting to feel like we're always going to be losers (hence the widely reported swing towards apathy this last week). This feels like a chance, a golden chance to get a win. But that's the problem with feeling like losers: even when you have a golden chance to win...you start expecting that you WILL LOSE.
 
That's why the trade deadline's looming. This is our chance to turn Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia and Kurt Suzuki into Gold* (See note below). But there's that nagging fear that they'll turn into a flaming bag of poo instead. After all, when you're as desperate as I feel right now, you don't make the best choices.
 
We need a win right now. I want us to win right now. And I have very little confidence that we will.
 
But hey...If I wanted to feel confidence on a regular basis I wouldn't be a Twins fan. If I was on the point of collapsing into apathy or anger I wouldn't keep using the "we" pronoun when talking about a team that has never employed me or asked my opinion about anything.
 
*Honestly, I know they aren't worth gold and no GM would give us gold, but if we could get a couple pieces of bronze, and an opportunity to see a piece of silver from the vault, I'd call that a win.