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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I think the OP is correct on this one. Last year (2021) Sano's OPS in April was 550. BA was .111 for the month. Not sure why he is so snake bit in April, maybe ask Correa? At any rate his numbers last year didn't pick up until mid May so there are a few more weeks of bad games ahead most likely. By the end of May for the Month of May he had a 750 OPS and for the month of June he had an 800 OPS. Not great numbers for who he should be as a 1st baseman but not horrible either. Looking at it another way he has been so bad to this point he has no where to go but up. I have been saying this the last three years but I am still a Sano believer and I think he is going to have a good year this year maybe even a great one.
  2. Dman
    CES with 2 more hits. Don't know how the guy does it but is just uncanny when it comes to contact. Hajjar is a K machine but his WHIP is horrible. Giving up way too much contact. Haven't seen him pitch but disappointed in the numbers so far. I kind of thought Derek Rodriguez was washed up but he looks pretty good to me. Not sure he can catch on with the Twins but he seems like he could be a good emergency arm for some team. I would be surprised if Fedko works out as he climbs the levels but he has been a steal of a pick at number 12 last year. Seems to have a really good approach and looks destined for High A after the all star break. Jullien still has his Arraez eye at the plate drawing three more walks. I hope they hang onto this guy his ability to control the strike zone has to make him successful just has to.
  3. Dman
    Yeah given the issue with the Twins pen arms I could see Vallimont gone as soon as rosters move back to 26 man. Hopefully with various DFA's at that time he can slip through unclaimed.
  4. Dman
    OK I am joining the complain wagon train. Thielbar once again was not able to find the strike zone and appeared especially scared to put anything in the the strike zone against righties. It is the reason they sent Pagan in who has turned into a one trick pony that isn't fooling anyone either. The low slider isn't working bud. They seem to be able to identify and lay off that pitch and not throwing strikes early in the count makes for walks and messy innings. I can see why San Diego was happy to send him off via trade. It was cold out there and that does affect certain pitchers and hitters so hard to say those guys won't look better in better conditions but the reason you warm up in the pen is to be able to throw strikes and both those failed to do that again. It cost Paddack the win and nearly the game. On a positive note Paddack looked good out there. I was surprised they sent him back out for the 6th but given what the pen looks like I guess I can see why they would want to get as much out the starters as possible. I can get used to Kepler hitting lefties and not being an automatic out against them. Urshela has been impressive. I can see why New York fans didn't love it when he was traded to the Twins. I did not get to see the Twins win live as I turned off the game after the 8th inning when the top of the order went down. The Wolves lost late, The Wild lost late, it looked like the Twins fate was sealed but they must have some mojo this year as they broke the trend and accidently found a way to win. I am happy they are over 500 and looks like this division is up for grabs.
  5. Dman
    Those 7 to 10 year deals don't make sense for revenue sharing teams. The Twins will be better off short and long term dumping Correa for Lewis who will cost much less and while he won't likely produce right away he shouldn't be that far off of Correa's production especially as he ages. If Correa was willing to do a home town discount in the 25M range maybe the Twins could squeeze that in but I don't see them doing that as they are averse to long term deals. They almost didn't sign Buxton long term. Correa staying is a very, very, long shot. If he plays well some bigger market team will gobble him up.
  6. Dman
    Yeah after his start today he should clear when teams drop down. Most teams can't afford an arm like his on the 40 man.
  7. Dman
    I have seen other boards dropping Berry because they feel he might be position less. It would be nice to have a switch hitter who is good from both sides of the plate as it is really, really hard to find that but having another 40 graded runner that is not a catcher is less than ideal IMO. if we want Berry odds are he will be there at number 8. If Parada is gone and he most likely will be then I think Susac would be my next choice. I know he is tall for a catcher but so was Mauer. He looks to have a decent bat should be solid defensively and should have power. It is an important position and one of need for the Twins as well. I also could be convinced to go with Gavin Cross who has some speed and could be a Kepler replacement maybe in fairly short order. Still I would prefer if the Twins could get a high school bat in the first round. If Holiday or Collier were there I would take them. Granted they would take longer to get to the Twins but they could start building another wave of younger players like Rodriguez, Miller, Cavaco, Rosario, Urbina which could replenish the MLB ranks in 4 or 5 years. Would be nice if the Twins were a spot or two higher but as you stated they should still be in the range for an elite bat if they want one.
  8. Dman
    I think even in my scenario it is going to be hard to get anything for either player as they both require the acquiring team to add them to their 40 man thus they would have to lose a player to add one of them. Your scenario works better as the acquiring team would be taking someone off their 40 man to put someone on it but given the past and current performance of both Strotman and Vallimont their value is pretty low right now. The Twins would likely have to include something else as well to get a deal done. I like your idea of trading for a stronger lefty though.
  9. Dman
    I think there is going to be pressure to jettison Strotman and Vallimont. Would be nice if they could work out a minor trade with one or both of them for an arm further a way like in the GCL or A ball. Some lottery ticket type so that we don't have to lose them for nothing as I am certain both would be picked up. I just think Smeltzer, Minaya, Cotton, or Cano would be better options than either of those guys at this time and we have options behind them so not the end of the world to lose two guys that likely won't be able to help the MLB club this year in favor of guys who can.
  10. Dman
    Christian Encarnation-Strand is a bit of an enigma to me. Since he started pro ball he has maintained a .500 BABIP and K rate around 28%. His walk rate is super low. I am all for aggressive contact but isn't there a point where pitchers won't throw him strikes and let him get himself out? Is he Rosario version 2 where he can hit pretty much anything even pitches that are not strikes but unable to control the strike zone? My concern is that like Rosario that there is a point where pitchers use his aggressiveness against him. I assume at that point he finally works the Strike zone? Or is he doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past? I love the swing. I love the contact but remain concerned there will be a point where he won't get good pitches to hit because pitchers will get him to get himself out. At any rate he has been unbelievable to this point. Simeon Woods Richardson with no runs allowed in a league that tends to have very good hitters is impressive. His K-9 is down but his stuff must be tough to square up because he has been efficient getting guys out. Those hittablity and control problems we were worried about appear to be non-existent so far as his WHIP is .59. It is very early but so far so good if he wants to join the big club this year. For such a little guy Henriquez has really good movement on his pitches almost Berrios like. I have no idea what to expect from him but his delivery looked silky smooth and he looked confident on the mound. Hopefully he keeps the ball in the park as home run suppression will make or break him from what I can tell. He could be a good relief option if needed for the Twins as he is already added to the 40 man. Only 21 and knocking on the door he might be the best young pitcher in the system right now. He'll have to battle it out with SWR I guess. Loving that lineup of pitchers at A ball. Stankiewicz, Raya, Hajjar, Festa, Adams. All of them have looked good so far. I am intrigued by Festa who was taken in the 12th round I believe. His college stats weren't bad but his velocity seemed low. Not sure how he is hitting 96-97 now at times. I figured he would be a slow starter kind of like Pierson Ohl but he has looked good so far. Hard to believe how the Twins find arms so far down the board. Those are the four guys I am going to highlight but there are lot's of guys off to good starts this year.
  11. Dman
    With all the dings and bruises catchers have it is no wonder they can easily slump at the plate. While I miss Garvers bat (even though he off to a slow start for Texas) he had his fair share of injuries in Minnesota as well. I think you pretty much have to plan on needing three catchers to get through a season minimum. I think most of the board was surprised the Twins went with just 2 to start the season but given their plan to limit starting pitcher innings they probably had no choice. I don't see Godoy as much different than Rortvedt and Cisco might be even better with the bat than Ben as well hard to say at this point. Would I rather have Garver as a replacement sure but I think the Twins have OK options for the moment. Lot's of teams have black hole bats for catchers. While not ideal it can be a postion where you can get away with less than ideal offensive production. I assume the reason they brought Godoy up instead of Cisco is that Godoy passed through waivers once already and they might not want to risk losing Cisco if they needed more room for another player. Cisco looks like he has the better record with the bat. I hope Jeffers stays healthy he is the best catcher we have on the team right now.
  12. Dman
    Actually to this point in the season Sanchez's OPS is higher than Garvers and Urshela's is higher than Donaldson's. So to your point those guys would only be hurting us more than their replacements are at least to this point in the season. Garver always was a slow starter IMO. He will mash eventually. Donaldson no idea how he will do but have to believe he will warm up with the weather as well. At least for the first two weeks the Twins are winning those trades.
  13. Dman
    First let me say I am sad to see Thorpe go. He brought a lot of hope with him at the lower levels that we might have a strong lefty starter. He piled up the K's and kept the velocity up through 2019 and then things started to fall a part. Whether it was injury or that he just peaked is hard to say. His velocity was down from when he was younger and he started giving up too much hard contact. The Twins gave him a long time to try and get things right even keeping him on the 40 man all winter but he never quite found the stuff he once had. I wish him well and hope things still work out well for him. Smeltzer appears to back to his old self. At some point the Twins will need to put him back on the 40 man. He was great this spring and has been very good at AAA as well. At the very least they could use him as a long man lefty reliever. The way the season started I thought the AA lineup was going to be the weak link. With the weather warming so have the bats warmed up and Martin is now closing in on an 800 OPS after a brutal start to the season. Steer is still the best bat at least for the moment. Everyone up and down the lineup is hitting except Wallner who has a .073 batting average and 47% K rate. He can't hit a slow pitch softball right now and has been a rally killer automatic out so far this season. Vallimont still looks Shaky out there to me. 3 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings is not ideal. Hoping he can straighten things out as the weather warms up. The pitching is good and the hitting is good at High A so it is no wonder that they are 10-2 at this point. It is a tough lineup with Prato and CES at the top. Sawyer Gipson-Long and Povich are two best pitchers and Headrick has been right there with them to this point. Still Mooney, Legumina and Laweryson are pretty solid as well. As long as this team stays together they should be tough to beat. The muscles need to find their bats if they want to win more games. With Rodriguez in an 0 for 9 slump the other bats need to heat up. The only consistent bat in that lineup seems to be Fedko. Varland at AA and Headrick and High A should be more must watch Twins affiliate baseball.
  14. Dman
    Jeremy was pretty close to nailing this one. Actually he didn't think quite big enough. Susana was rated slightly lower than Medina in the Padres system. Susana is big 6'6" compared to the 6'1" Medina but right now given what we know it looks like Medina has the better secondary's. It will be interesting to see how Medina does as I think he is rule V eligible in 2023 and it looks like he will be in short season ball this year as he hasn't pitched yet. Kind of nice to replace the loss of Petty with another fairly high octane arm that is only 19 years old. Hard to say what the outcomes will be, but on the surface it looks like the Twins did well in this deal. 3 years of Paddack, 2 years of Pagan, if he makes it 6 years of Medina for one year of Rogers, and 5 years of Rooker if he makes it, who might have been lost for nothing. Oh and the Twins had to pay 7M of Rogers salary. I hope this is an arm that works out. I will be watching to see how he does this year. If he gets the walks under control and maintains that K rate I have to believe he will make it as at least a reliever.
  15. Dman
    I am getting a little scared we might just miss out on the elite hitters in this draft. Hopefully more guys bubble up especially pitchers so we can snag a good hitter.
  16. Dman
    Camargo's K rate is problematic but anything he hits seems to go for extra bases. I am starting to wonder if approaches like that lead to generally higher BABIP's with the extra K's offsetting that approach. At any rate I think he needs to take more walks to be successful. Being overly aggressive only takes you so far. I like call out on the Cedar Rapids staff and honestly Mooney and Legumina could be added to that list. SGL has been good at getting K's but always had trouble giving up runs as well. If that issue is better resolved he looks like a good prospect to me. I expect him to be in the top 30 this year. Headrick is probably the biggest surprise for me on your list. He was very hittable last year and gave up plenty of walks as well. If he keeps this K rate up and WHIP down he looks like a good lefty reliever to me. Possibly he could start but I am not sure the velocity is there. At any rate he moves from bust to possibility now in my book. Povich is too good to be at High A, but it is what it is. I always wondered how Stankiewicz would do as an after thought in the 2020 draft. He bet on himself coming out that year and it looks like that is going to pay off. I don't know a ton about him and I hope they allow him to be a fast mover. Especially if he continues to dominate like he has. He could be sneaky good but will just have to wait and see. Prato is a nice underdog pick. I think if he can hit he makes it. If not with the Twins then somewhere else as a utility option. He has a good eye, good speed and a solid glove. Just needs to prove he can continue hit on his way up because he lacks "special" skills and is more average except for Onbase skills which could be above average if he keep the batting average up.
  17. Dman
    Nice to continue to see Royce Lewis getting hits and doing his thing. Miranda needed a multi-hit game and got one as well. Both Cano and Minaya had good relief outings and look like potential big league pen options if needed. SWR has defeinately righted the ship to start the year. No earned runs over 16 innings and very little hard contact made from what I have seen. He has been very efficient getting guys out only giving up 5 hits and 4 walks for a .54 WHIP. The K rate is little low for him compared to last year but still close to a K an inning. He looks really. really good right now. If he can continue to keep the walks down he looks ready for the next step. His outing was even more impressive than normal because the team he faced had 6 guys batting over .300 and pretty much every guy in their lineup had an OPS over .750. That is a tough lineup to hold to 2 hits and no walks. Was pretty much the same old Cruz. When he starts walking guys bad things happen. The guy does throw very hard though so I guess we hope for better days ahead. Happy to see the bats have heated up at AA. Everyone except Wallner with at least one hit last night. Emmanual Rodriguez is on a KKKKKK Kold streak after being rested last Sunday. I don't think he has a hit yet this week and is back to striking out a lot. Fedko remain hot with a 432 batting average and two more hits last night. he looks like he wants to get promoted. Hajjar with an impressive outing this time out. Gave up no hits this time out and 10 K's. He has the K touch.
  18. Dman
    Falvey turned us into the Indians alright. We can pitch now but no hitters to be found and the 30 Million dollar man has been less than clutch to this point. These guys need to find themselves and fast if they want to save the season.
  19. Dman
    If we can't even beat the Royals I don't really know who we plan to beat. Maybe once they get Buck back they do something but this lineup is thin on hitters right now. Can't win any games if you score no runs. Gotta say the hitters look horrible, just horrible to start the season. Hopefully they take extra batting practice because they need it.
  20. Dman
    Yeah I would give you ten likes for this if I could. I think you hit the nail on the head. He is not the strongest in game manager IMO. He does excel on the relationship end though. Also he can only play the hand he is dealt. The FO did him no favors when it came to the pen.
  21. Dman
    Pagan was more of a throw in type veteran replacement for Rogers than a real solution IMO. We all knew he was headed in the wrong direction sans the trade and yet given the state of our pen he looks like one of the few arms trusted in high leverage situations. So I am hoping the Twins can find something to make sure he can be a solution and not another problem.
  22. Dman
    I am trying to avoid thinking another veteran reliever could sink this team early. The numbers on Duffy look even worse than I initially thought. Still he got better last year as the season wore on. Certainly not a guy you want working high leverage situations unless things change for the better. We are only ten games in though and it seems way too early to give up on him as well. I hope he can figure things out but if he is this hittable he isn't just done with the Twins he is done completely.
  23. Dman
    I wouldn't say that was a good matchup. Thielbar has had a lot of trouble getting righties out IIRC. If I had to guess I would say he had too much confidence in Thielbar in that situation. When Caleb is on he can be tough on both sides but I do find that an odd situation to put him in early in the season. Would love to know the thought process on that one. Going with the gut instead of the numbers? Or the numbers told him something about those matchups? I will agree with you that on the surface that one doesn't look good.
  24. Dman
    I think I am with Ashbury on this for the most part. To start the season Rocco hasn't had a ton of consistency from his pen arms. In many ways Baseball is a confidence game. When players are doing their jobs and playing well they seem to have more belief that their outcomes will be positive. When in a slump confidence in what they are doing wains and they seem more prone to stay in a slump until extra coaching and or practice get them back on track. That being said Managers\coaches have to have confidence in their players and give confidence to their players. I think Rocco does a really good job in that regard. We have heard Cruz talk about the positive atmosphere in the club house and Buxton wanting to stay a Twin (look at all the adversity he faced and always had Rocco's support). Correa and Buxton were just talking about the "positive" vibes in the clubhouse. So you know that is important to players. Knowing your manager has your back allows you to stay focused and on track IMO. If I were the manager and I have a bunch of unknowns in the pen am I going to lean on less experienced guys or more experienced guys? For me I am going to put my trust in the guys that have been there and done it before. Guys like Duffey and Theilbar have good track records. Does that mean they are going to be successful every time they go out there no it doesn't. I feel the angst everyone else does about Duffey and Thielbar being Colome killers. They collectively sunk several promising games this season. Possibly three games lost by their collective failures. Still it is too early to throw them in the trash heap. Rocco still has to have confidence they can do the job and needs to give them the confidence they need to be successful again. Right now it is a bit of a waiting game IMO. Could both players be washed up and not going to get back on track or better until it is too late. That is one possibility. Odds are though it is early and they just need to settle into what works and what doesn't right now. The manager has to believe every player is going to pull their weight and be able to do their job. While he can create matchups to help them be more successful in the end the players have to perform and the manager has to keep his players in a good state of mind to create as much consistency as possible. I think Rocco does a decent job of that.
  25. Dman
    Sands with one of those games that make me worried about him staying a starter. I wonder if he is going to show up on the injured list as usually when he has one of these games something isn't quite right. St. Paul was brutal in pretty much every way possible last night. Pretty much total system failure. Nice to see Canterino get some of his groove back but his control problems continue. He has been less than efficient on the mound. Hoping this is where he gets things going again. The bats were better for Wichita but still several hitters struggling there namely Wallner. Martin knows how to steal bases and seems to be back to his OnBase ways with little to no power. Looking fairly Arraez like with speed right now. Povich wasn't as efficient as he has been but still K'ing nearly two guys per inning. He has been pretty dominant for a level that should be challenging him. If he can stay healthy looks like he will move up to AA mid season. CES with 2 more hits and 2 more Strike outs. That K rate is starting to climb and I always say his .500 BABIP has to come down but it didn't last year. Will just have to wait and see what that looks like through a full season but right now he looks like the best hitter on the Cedar Rapids squad. Camargo has had a hot bat to start the season as well. He generally is a K machine with good power will have to see if he can keep things going and find better plate discipline. Raya looked shaky his first time out to me and then he goes out and nearly throws 6 perfect innings with 10 K's. He had a lot of hype coming into the season and I wasn't so sure he would stand up to it, but he has me believing now. 1 hit and no walks through 6 is really hard to do unless you are throwing really, really well. A dominant performance like that puts him on the must watch list. Fedko came through the big hit and 2 RBI's but it was a tough night for the bats on both sides. The walks were the difference in the game IMO. Lot's of really good starting pitching with the exception of Sands. Keep that pipeline coming. We are going to need the arms.
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