mikelink45

Some wonderful memories and new names makes this a really enjoyable posting. Thanks for the work.

Not inspiring. Isn't it time to look at the minors and bring up Gonsalves and Romero? This is not a small sample size for Gibson, no matter how many innings he pitches the last one will be a disaster. Moya and Kinley are not MLB relievers and if we really thing we are going to compete they need to go. I hope I am wrong about Hughes, but other than his big contract why is he starting? Pitching was our weak point. The FO got lots of credit for addressing it. I am not one of those saying good job. Except for Reed - the one exception. The percentage is not good. And Sano gets an RBI. Great, he made contact once. I am bored with him and I hated the lineup. Grossman batting Number 4???? Call up the young bats. Do something interesting.

I am less concerned with Molitor than with the team. Managers are always over and underrated. But I go back to my premise in the off season when many thought we should be mining free agents and my mantra is bring up the young players. Of course you do not do that if you have a lousy minor league group, but we don't. I wanted Romero and Gonsalves, I wanted Chargois and some of our minor league relief pitchers. I would have had Vargas at DH or someone else that got hot in the minors, I would have Gordon auditioning at SS. And I would have Granite or Wade as the fourth outfielder and I would play LaMarre until the star stops shining. ​Go with the hot hand, go with the talent. I know that is not popular, but what I am seeing right now does nothing to diminish those thoughts.

The bullpen still worries me and Pressly too. At this point Addison Reed is a real plus, Duke and Rodney no so much, but all need more time to show what they have or don't have. Hildenberger is my biggest concern. He has been used a lot, but something is wrong or he just burned out last year. Kinley and Moya seem to be holding places that could be better filled with some of the pitchers in the minors. This is not the bullpen I want to see with a winning team, but at least they are trying some things. Check back in a month and the individual grades will be more valid.

Today, Sam Miller at ESPN wrote that the Strikeout rate in baseball is going up for the 14th year in a row. Last year pitchers struck out 8.2 batters per nine and this year it is 8.6 so far. The first question is why don't batters care? Second question is - how do we compare strikeout rates now with past pitching performances and careers - although Nolan Ryan is not only secure, his record means more because of when he set it. A side note is the fact that starting pitcher strikeout rates is up and relief is down. Why. I suspect it is because they now have so many relief pitchers on every squad that there are bound to be some mediocre pitchers in the bullpen - look at our bullpen and then imagine the bullpens on poor teams! Next I read an article by Jerry Crasnick on the path to 3000 hits by Albert Pujols. Pujols has never struck out more than 93 times a year and he also has over 600 homeruns. In the article Pujols states "Some guys in this league think the strikeout is overrated." "Its something in the game I really don't like. If you put the ball in play you give yourself a chance to put some pressure on the defense, and maybe they can make a mistake and make an error. If its two outs you can start a rally. If you strike out, you don't have a chance." All I can say is AMEN. Imagine Buxton dropping his K rate in half and having a chance for an infield single every time he does, or causing an error because the fielder is in a hurry because of his speed. Imagine Sano dropping his K rate in half which would still be high, but he might not leave so many on base or kill so many innings. Baseball is all about trends. Right now Ks are in and I am not pleased.

This is the pitcher we imagined when everyone - including me - wanted him up for the race at the end of the year instead of Duffey. As it turned out we were premature, but our expectations were realistic. Berrios is the first really terrific pitcher we have developed since Liriano. All I can say is keep him healthy and then start bringing up our other young arms - Romero is next as far as future potential and Gonsalves is good to fill out the rotation. Very exciting potential.

With Morrison and Grossman stinking in MLB it has me thinking again about the great Vargas debate - would we really be worse off if we had put him at DH and not signed Morrison? Just wondering. ​Also wondering why Gordon is not getting some MLB time while Polanco is out? With Grossman looking so bad in the field (and at bat) I wonder if Granite or Wade might not look good on the big club?

So many take aways or at least talkers from last nights game. Berrios deserves the ACE tag. He had been great and maybe a game like that will start to get national attention for him. Hildenberger on the other hand was not great - again. I think he needs some AAA time. I was really hoping like so many that he would be a bullpen stud, but maybe he burned out last year and needs to go down and get a reset. Busenitz should be in the pen to stay. Morrison is reminding me of Kendrys Morales who came to us and stunk. With Morrison and Grossman in the lineup together we are throwing away 22% of our lineup. We cannot afford that. LaMarre has been a marvel. He might not last, but we should play him until his star fades. I thought we needed to wait for 50 ABs, but at 44 ABS he could get six straight hits and still only be at a 180 average. Something is very wrong and keeping him in one of the middle of the lineup locations is not helping this team. We have five batters hitting under 200 this has to be corrected.

Currently Joe is #286 on the hit list with less than stellar stars - Shawn Green and Todd Zeile just above him. He needs to get into more rarified air if he has a chance. In walks Barry Bonds has 2558 and Ted Williams, Rickey Henderson and Babe Ruth are the only other ones with 2000. Joe has 900 - right behind David Justice and Ferris Fain and he is way behind his contemporary - Joey Votto who has 1001. Since OBP is his top claim, he has a long ways to go. Put them together and get On Base percentage where Joe ranks 97 right behind Mike Tiernan with 392. This is way behind contemporaries Miguel Cabrera 395 and Paul Goldschmidt 399 or Mike Trout 409. That is not good enough to make the hall. I really like Joe Mauer and he has been an excellent player who will be in the Twins Hall of Fame with Hrbek, Allison and other very good players who did not make the national HOF. That is okay. ​But looking at it realistically, he just is not going to be in Cooperstown.

Thank you. I was feeling guilty that I opposed signing Ohtani all winter. This gives me a little relief.

I am glad you are able to pursue this, too much math, too many variables for me. I am beyond see it - hit it, but not this far. Keep going and I might understand it some day.

When is it time to worry about Grossman and Morrison? Two week slumps happen, three weeks and its time to start to worry.

The worst thing is that they are right.

This is not a question of how much I value him as a Twin, it is a question of whether he will make the HOF.

No. I know this is a Twins site and therefore we have a bias towards Mauer. But right now I see him in the hall of very good. His catcher years - required another 2 - 3 to out weigh his 1B years, As a first baseman he has nothing that would further the HOF narrative. 2000 hits is not enough. There are 283 players with 2000 hits. ​Gold gloves at two positions - only two Darin Erstad and Placido Palanco - neither will be in the HOF. I like Joe Mauer, I also like a small hall. If Joe makes it I will not lead a protest march, but if he doesn't I will not be upset either. In my mind it is about the next four years - does joe go over 2500 hits, does he get gold gloves and most important does he hold his OBP up to be one of the best ever. Right now his 392 is tied with - the Great Honus Wagner and Joe Morgan, but also George Grantham, Tip O'Neill, Jack Fournier, and Roger Connor. That is not enough without a lot of other contributions. I do believe that without the concussion he would be HOF, I also believe with a better knee Tony Oliva would be too. But seldom do players get an injury boost. Right now his OPS+ is behind Mark Trumbo and 808 others.

I will try to keep my neck from sticking through the fence wires while constantly promoting our own farm system over the guys in someone else's pasture.

I only did this because I was motivated by the essay after 10 games that was projecting our season success. I have watched too many years to really believe that the first month predicts anything. It just gives us something to do while the snow falls.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. Great players will always be great - no matter who they play for or against, but in an era when we look at the surge of 600-700 home runs and wonder if something needs to be done to designate the steroid era, but premise is that each era stands on its own and there really are now good ways to compare the statistics across the decades, as fun as it is. ​When we get into HOF arguments like the one that consumed everyone over Morris' ERA we lose the perspective of how did he perform in comparison to his peers and his team. Of course the statistics would be different for Ruth and others if African Americans had been included, just as the Negro League stats would have changed. ​But as my paragraph on the different era's stated baseball has had anything but a consistent history. 30 game winners and 400 hitters were once common, not McLain and Williams seem like true outliers. 100 stolen bases a season once defined baseball and now we are lucky to see 50 in a year by the best runners. Home Run baker would not match Mauer, yet he excited his era. ​You are right about the strikeouts that are so much easier to get now than when every player choked up on the bat with two strikes. The social crime was and is the way that people of color have been denied an opportunity, but in baseball each generation will be convinced that their players are the greatest of all time and the numbers will be reconfigured so that they might seem right. But in the end, I can only say that Aaron, Mays, Clemente, Robinson, Banks, Marichal, Gibson, Henderson and other great black ball players made my baseball enjoyment so much greater.

Wonderful report. It is terrible how we have turned our backs on this island and its suffering. If baseball can raise their spirits and draw attention to the needs of the people it will be a wonderful story and a credit to the sport.

I have no disagreement with what you said, but I had to follow up on the projection that was on the main page based on 10 games because if we have the right to project positive on 10 games we also have the ability to see the bad. The part that is consistent with everything I have written on the pages is that I am much happier when we promote from within unless the outside choice is far better than what we already have - I put Reed in this category and maybe Odorizzi.

The other guy is always better than what you have – right? Well that is the thought that dominates the off-season and so we are sad that we did not sign Yu Darvish (actually if you saw my posts you know I did not want him). Since we had an article looking at the first ten days and projecting the season I thought it might be good to see what we missed. Yu Darvish just had a memorable melt down over a balk, but even more exciting are his statistics during a stretch that was supposed to be the easy part of the cubs schedule. His line – 0 – 1, 6.00 ERA for three starts, 1.533 WHIP and a -0.1 WAR (yes minus). Then there was the idea of the big trade for Chris Archer – who has a -0.3 WAR, a 5.94 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP, but he is 1 – 0! And all we had to do was give up on Kepler and some other young assets. Of course we did sign some assets because they are better than our minor league prospects – Logan Morrison and his -0.5 WAR is hitting .088, slugging .118 with an OPS of 3.23 and it was worth giving up Chargois and other relief prospects to get Zach Duke with a -0.4 WAR 11.25 ERA and 2.25 Whip and Fernando Rodney with a 0.0 WAR 3.86 ERA, and 1.929 WHIP. The last piece to the puzzle was Lance Lynn who has 0.1 WAR with a 5.00 ERA and 1.778 Whip so we did not have to use Mejia, Romero, or Gonsalves. To be fair that is only 4 of 6 players we picked up and Addison Reed 0.5 WAR, 1.13 ERA is the real thing in the bullpen and Odorizzi has 0.8 WAR and 2.20 ERA and 1.347 WHIP. I guess .333 is a good average in baseball, not sure that applies to signing players. As a person who always prefers the young players I think I would have liked to see Odorizzi and Reed with the other money going to sign Dozier and extend our young players. I would have liked one of our young players instead of Lynn, Duke, and Rodney and maybe kept Chargois who has 0.2 WAR and a 0.00 Era in 5 games and I just might have left Vargas at DH until one of our prospects steps up.

I like to see the progress of the prospects, can you give us a season line after their current line? It would help put a line like Kiriloff;s 0 for and 3 K in perspective.

My last blog chronicled the movement of black baseball players into major league baseball from Jackie Robinson in 1947 to the Red Sox finally adding a black player in 1958. As I said then, if we question the impact of steroids on our baseball records we should also look at how the exclusion of the black ballplayer impacted the records between 1989 and 1958. If one deserves an asterisk, the other requires a new said of record standards. I understand that baseball evolves – we had the hitless era, the homerun explosion, the war years, the years of integration, baseball’s best decade by my estimation in the 1960’s, then the domination by the pitcher, free agency, the monsters of the steroid, and the era of the bullpen. So it is hard to completely compare and determine what a difference the addition of the African American player made, except for my judgmental statement that the 1960’s might be baseball’s best decade. In the 1950’s I rooted for the Milwaukee Braves and learned to hate the Yankees. The Yankees dominated everything as the rest of the teams integrated. The Yankees, took their time, added Elston Howard, but did very little and their star began to diminish. In fact they signed other black players like Vic Power and Reuben Gomez, but they were traded because the Yankees management wanted to make sure that they had a quiet “negro” and not a trouble maker like Jackie Robinson. http://www.angelfire.com/ny5/yankeeswebpage/elston.html This started the downfall and end of the Yankee dynasty until they started signing or more likely trading or signing Free Agent black and Latino players like Willie Randolph, Derrick Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, and Rickey Henderson. From Aaron and the 1957 Braves on into the 1960s it was a plethora of Black players – Robinson, Mays, Clemente, Stargell, Gibson, Banks, Jenkins – that set the standards for MLB. The influx of black ball players meant that the quality of MLB increased dramatically. It is easy to make the assumption that the lack of black ball players meant that the all white major leagues did not have a representative set of statistics and all stars before Robinson and Campanella and Mays and others joined the league.

I keep thinking about your projection this early in the season. If we take the opening series we project to 162 - 0 which of course was blown since then we are 3 - 4 which, if it is more realistic would mean we would be 69 wins this season so I will go out on an April limb and say we will win between 69 and 158 games this season!

This is a grey and somewhat depressing weather morning - your optimism is as welcome as the sun would be. If only I could believe it. "Good things happen to Sano when he hits the ball" but that is as profound as saying good things happen when we out-score the other team. At this point 50% strikeouts is completely unacceptable. He and Buxton are the big two, but it is Mauer, Rosario, Kepler, and Dozier who are carrying the team and they are going to need some help.