Sam Caulder

With Pablo López out for the year and David Festa likely starting on the IL, the Twins’ rotation picture has changed fast, even with Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober locked in at the top. Now it’s down to Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel battling for the final three spots. One of them may be better suited for a bullpen role, and the decision could shape how this staff looks not just in April, but all season long. View full video

Image courtesy of William Parmeter Walker Jenkins is the crown jewel of the Minnesota Twins organization. Ranked as the Twins’ top prospect and the 14th overall prospect in the latest MLB Pipeline Top 100, Jenkins has quickly established himself as one of the most intriguing young players in baseball. So let’s not bury the lead: Walker Jenkins will be the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year. Before diving into the case, it’s worth clarifying eligibility. A player qualifies for Rookie of the Year as long as he has fewer than 130 major league at-bats and fewer than 45 days of MLB service time. Since Jenkins has yet to make his MLB debut, he will be fully eligible in 2026. The American League is loaded with incoming talent. Samuel Basallo headlines Baltimore’s next wave. Cleveland’s Travis Bazzana and Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle bring advanced contact skills and polished offensive approaches. Carter Jensen made noise in September with Kansas City. On the pitching side, Boston features high-upside arms in Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, while Toronto’s Trey Yesavage turned heads with a dominant postseason run. There will be no shortage of legitimate candidates. Jenkins won’t win the award on reputation alone. But Rookie of the Year isn’t awarded for prospect rankings. It’s earned through everyday opportunity and immediate, bankable production. And that’s where Jenkins’ profile becomes especially compelling. His offensive game is built for sustainability. He controls the strike zone and he doesn’t rely on one primary tool that has to carry his entire profile. He doesn’t need a 10-homer heater to stay relevant in the race. Instead, his value shows up in quieter ways: competitive at-bats, line drives into the gaps, not chasing out of the zone, and steady defense in the outfield. Over 162 games, that kind of consistency matters. Opportunity is the other half of this equation. Outfield depth rarely survives a full season untouched. If someone like Byron Buxton misses time — something that has unfortunately been part of recent years — the Twins will need a reliable everyday option. Jenkins will be firmly in that conversation alongside Emmanuel Rodriguez. The difference is stylistic. Rodriguez offers loud power but comes with more swing-and-miss risk. Jenkins is beyond his years as a pure hitter, making him easier to insert into a lineup without living with extreme volatility. For a team trying to win games in the middle of a playoff race, that stability may be just what the Twins are looking for. Jenkins is close enough to the majors that he won’t feel rushed. He’s polished enough that he won’t look overwhelmed. And he’s well-rounded enough that even modest across-the-board production becomes extremely valuable over a full season of at-bats. The statistical foundation supports that projection. At Double-A in 2025, Jenkins hit .309 with a .426 on-base percentage across 235 plate appearances. More importantly, he showcased growth. His walk rate climbed to 14.5 percent, reflecting a hitter who was adjusting as pitchers adjusted to him. That type of development is what you want to see from a future impact bat. The late-season promotion to Triple-A presented a tougher challenge. Across 101 plate appearances, he hit .242 with a .324 on-base percentage, collecting nine extra-base hits and four stolen bases. His strikeout rate ticked up, marking the only stop in his minor league career where swing-and-miss became a noticeable storyline. For a 20-year-old facing older, more experienced pitching, simply holding his own at that level is encouraging. It wasn’t dominance, but it didn’t need to be. It was exposure to the final layer of adjustments before the big leagues. And here’s the key: he doesn’t need to overhaul anything to win this award. He just needs incremental improvement. If Jenkins trims his swing rate slightly and forces pitchers to attack him, his on-base skills could jump another tier. His power likely settles in the 15-20 home run range in the short term. That may not scream “superstar,” but paired with a strong average, power to the gaps, and competent defense, it creates a player who contributes in multiple ways every single night. Rookie of the Year campaigns often reward players who are ready, not just electric. There will be rookies in 2026 with louder tools. There will be stretches where a young pitcher strings together six dominant starts and captures the spotlight. There will be power surges that drive headlines for a month. But over the course of a full season, steady production accumulates. Quality at-bats add up. Defensive reliability builds trust. Managers keep writing the same name into the lineup card. Jenkins’ game is built on that kind of trust. His track record shows a hitter who adjusts quickly and rarely lets one rough stretch spiral. In a race that will likely feature plenty of upside and volatility, his steady, well-rounded profile might ultimately be what separates him. He doesn’t have to be perfect. He simply has to be what he has consistently been throughout his minor league career: a mature, adaptable hitter with a clear runway to everyday at-bats. That combination of tools plus opportunity is powerful. And in 2026, it’s going to put Walker Jenkins at the front of the American League Rookie of the Year conversation. View full article

I put Rodriguez and Roden in the first check-in, but didn't want to double up on both of them in this one. He deserves to be in there though.

Who do you think should be there instead of Clemens? I tried hard to find a pitcher to put in the "Who's Hot?" section, but the only one I felt made sense was Mick Abel and he hadn't made his second start yet. I didn't feel like any other pitcher had multiple good appearances this week, and no SP stood out to me.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Emmanuel Rodriguez and Gabriel Gonzalez) The standings don’t mean much in late February, but a six-game skid still isn’t ideal. Since our last check-in, the Twins have dropped six straight and now sit at 2-7 overall this spring. It’s early, workloads are being managed, and plenty of pitchers are still building up — but this past week wasn’t exactly clean baseball. The stretch included a pair of Tuesday losses (10-5 to Baltimore and 12-1 to Tampa Bay), a 5-3 loss to Boston on Wednesday, a 6-4 defeat against Pittsburgh on Thursday, a 17-5 blowout by the Yankees on Friday, and a 13-8 loss to the Red Sox on Saturday. The results don’t matter much this time of year, but individual performances are worth monitoring. With that in mind, here’s the latest temperature check. Who’s Hot? Alan Roden: I’m not sure anyone has helped themselves more this spring than Roden. He’s 7-for-12 with a home run, and the contact quality has backed it up. He’s recorded multiple 100+ MPH exit velocities and hasn’t looked overmatched in any situation. It’s not just the production, it’s the at-bats. He’s controlling counts and squaring up pitches he should be driving. When a hitter pairs contact ability with impact like that, it stands out. Gabriel Gonzalez: As if there wasn’t already enough traffic in the outfield picture, Gonzalez is forcing his way into the conversation. Since our last check-in, he’s 4-for-6 with a pair of batted balls over 104 MPH. That’s loud contact by any standard. He’s shown he can handle different pitch types and hasn’t looked rushed at the plate. With all of the left-handed outfielders in the Twins’ system, a productive right-handed bat like Gonzalez could make things interesting if this continues. Kody Clemens: Clemens has swung the bat well early on. He’s 3-for-10 with two walks and, notably, no strikeouts. For a player whose value is tied heavily to power, that kind of zone control is encouraging. All three balls he put in play Saturday were over 100 MPH, and he’s hit a few others hard that turned into outs. Clemens likely projects as infield depth, particularly on the right side, but he could carve out a bigger role if he keeps controlling at-bats and hitting the ball this hard. Who’s Not? Marco Raya: Friday against the Yankees was a tough one for Raya. He recorded just one out while allowing five earned runs on one hit and four walks. He threw only 16 of 31 pitches for strikes, and command was clearly the issue. His fastball touched 97.8 MPH, so the raw stuff is there. But when you can’t consistently land pitches in the zone, velocity doesn’t matter much. For a pitcher who’s battled command issues in the past, this wasn’t a step forward. Justin Topa: Topa’s outing on Wednesday against Boston flipped that game. He needed 31 pitches to get two outs, allowing four earned runs on two hits and three walks. Two of the four balls put in play against him were hit over 104 MPH. Even more concerning was the strike throwing; just 11 of 31 pitches landed in the zone. Topa entered camp looking like a strong bet for a bullpen spot, but outings like this open the door for competition. Andrew Morris: The young righty drew the start on Tuesday against Baltimore, and it didn’t go well. Over 1 ⅓ innings, he allowed four earned runs on six hits, with no walks and no strikeouts. He threw 25 of 40 pitches for strikes, but too many of them caught too much of the plate. The velocity dip stood out. After sitting 95-96 MPH last year, his fastball was 92-93 in this outing. That could simply be part of ramping up, but with less margin for error, hitters were able to square him up. Morris allowed more hard contact in 2025, and that trend showed up again in his first spring appearance. It’s still early. These games often turn into minor-league scrimmages by the middle innings, and a bad week in February doesn’t define anyone’s season. But if we’re taking an early pulse, a few bats are trending up, and a few arms are still trying to find their footing. View full article

The Twins could be choosing between Justin Lebron, Drew Burress, Grady Emerson, Carson Boleman, and Jacob Lombard Jr. this July — and each one represents a different draft strategy. Do they go with a fast-moving college bat or bet on the sky-high upside of a prep star? This pick could shape the next era of Twins baseball. View full video

Unfortunate timing on that one. Sounds like it was a precautionary thing, but far from ideal.

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-Imagn Images Very few players around the league embody both promise and frustration quite like Royce Lewis. Entering his age‑27 season in 2026, Lewis remains a tantalizing mix of elite tools and unfulfilled potential. When healthy, he has the power and athleticism to impact the game in ways not many other major-leaguers can. Alas, the past two seasons have underscored a hard truth: raw talent doesn’t guarantee consistent production. With his dominant 2023 campaign (which labeled him as a superstar in the making) now far in the rearview mirror, the central question for Twins fans is straightforward: Can Lewis return to that level of performance, or will injuries and inconsistency continue to limit his impact? On every level, 2025 was a frustrating season. Lewis appeared in 106 games, the most of any season in his career. Yet, he posted a slash line of .237/.283/.388, marking his second straight season with an on-base percentage under .300. Conventional stats paint a bleak picture, but advanced metrics reveal both the reasons behind the struggles and the underlying tools that remain. Compared with 2023, his contact quality dropped. Statcast data shows that his barrel rate fell from 11.7% to 8.7%, his hard-hit rate slipped from 42.0% to 40.3%, and his xwOBA dropped significantly, from .349 to .297. This combination of weaker and less frequent premium contact explains why both his slugging and expected slugging (xSLG) regressed to below-average levels. Injuries played a significant role in that regression. Lewis began 2025 on the injured list with a hamstring strain suffered in spring training, and he re-aggravated the same injury in June. Lower-body injuries are particularly bothersome for hitters who rely on rotational power, and Lewis’s batted-ball profile reflected that. He produced more ground balls and fewer pulled fly balls, demonstrating that even slight physical limitations can severely limit a hitter who relies on torque and explosiveness. Another layer of context comes from his pitch splits. Lewis saw four-seam fastballs on 33.8% of pitches, and his results against heaters were quite underwhelming: a .183 batting average, .337 slugging percentage, and .268 wOBA. Interestingly, he fared much better against breaking balls and off-speed pitches. These splits highlight an unusual (seeming) paradox: a hitter with elite bat speed struggling against the pitch type that typically favors hitters. In previous seasons, Lewis handled fastballs effectively, suggesting that 2025’s struggles were likely tied to health, timing, or mechanical inconsistencies, rather than a permanent skill decline. Despite these struggles, there are reasons for optimism. Lewis’s raw power remains intact. His maximum exit velocity reached 113.7 mph, demonstrating that when he squares up a pitch, he can still drive it with authority. His sprint speed remained respectable, and he swiped 12 bases, signaling that his baserunning ability is still very much there. These tools provide a foundation that, if paired with improved contact quality, could allow him to return to a level of production closer to his 2023 season. His late-season results in 2025 were particularly encouraging. In September, Lewis hit .257 and stole nine bases, which was more than he accumulated from 2022 through 2024. His hard-hit and barrel rates ticked upward, and his batted-ball statistics suggested a cleaner, more direct path to the ball. Expected metrics like xSLG and xwOBA also trended upward, showing that even if conventional stats didn’t fully capture it, his underlying performance was improving. These flashes hint at the potential for a strong rebound if he can carry that quality of contact into a full 2026 campaign. Lineup context for 2026 further underscores Lewis’s potential impact. According to RosterResource projections, he's slated to hit seventh, sandwiched between Trevor Larnach and Victor Caratini. While that projection signals tempered expectations, it still positions him to be a meaningful contributor, especially if the advanced metrics from late 2025 persist. A consistent season could see him provide run production beyond what conventional stats suggest, particularly in high-leverage situations. For Lewis to recreate a 2023-level season, he must consistently square up fastballs and generate premium contact. The raw tools are undeniable, but the challenge lies in translating those metrics into sustained production over 130-plus games. Health, timing, and consistency will all factor heavily into whether he can deliver on the promise he has previously shown. Ultimately, 2026 may not define Lewis’s career, but it will reveal whether he can finally put all the pieces together. If he can stay healthy and maintain the late-season improvements seen in 2025, there’s reason to believe he can return to the kind of well-rounded production that made his 2023 season feel like a new baseline. For Twins fans, it’s a year to watch closely, and a chance to see if Lewis can move from tantalizing potential to a consistent, impactful contributor. View full article

Image courtesy of © Mike Watters-Imagn Images Spring training is the season of overreactions. A pitching prospect touches 98 MPH, and suddenly he’s unhittable. A hitter sends one ball over the fence, and we’re rewriting the Opening Day lineup. That’s just how February works. But let’s take a breath. Most Grapefruit League games are about buildup and execution. Starters get their work in, then the game turns into a rolling audition. Results are fun, but the process matters more. This recaps the Twins' first three spring training games. Thus far, they’re 2-1, with a 7-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox, an 8-1 win over the Atlanta Braves, and a 3-0 shutout victory over the Detroit Tigers. With that in mind, here’s a quick early-spring temperature check on who’s trending up, and who’s still finding their footing. Who’s Hot? ? Emmanuel Rodriguez: If you’re looking for loud contact, Emmanuel Rodríguez is delivering it. The Twins' fourth-ranked prospect (according to MLB Pipeline) went 2-for-2 Sunday with a home run, jumping on a 2-0 cutter on the outer third and smashing it over the right-field wall. He followed that up on Monday with an absolute tank against Detroit, lefty on lefty, on a sinker over the heart of the plate: 420 feet, 107 MPH off the bat. When he’s healthy and hitting balls that hard, his upside becomes very real, very fast. Kendry Rojas: One of the Twins’ top pitching prospects, Rojas was flat-out dominant against Atlanta. Over two innings, he faced six batters, recorded six outs, and struck out three—and that came against not just any six hitters, but star big-leaguers. He faced Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies, and more than held his own. The stuff backed it up. His fastball topped out at 98.5 mph and sat around 97, generating over 15 inches of vertical break on average. The changeup showed 10.7 inches of horizontal movement and paired beautifully off the heater. There were swings and misses throughout, and both pitches looked like legitimate weapons. He also generated three whiffs on just eight sliders. For a guy who struggled at Triple-A last year, that’s extremely encouraging. Alan Roden: He didn’t ease into his spring. Roden went 2-for-3 Sunday against the Braves, highlighted by a grand slam. The at-bat stood out just as much as the result; it was a seven-pitch battle that ended with a 3-2 fastball at the top of the zone. He didn’t miss it, driving it out to right-center. He also added a hard-hit single into center field. That’s about as clean a start as you can ask for. Mick Abel: The command wasn’t perfect, but the raw stuff was very sharp. He threw three scoreless innings against Detroit’s projected starting lineup, allowing two hits, no walks, and striking out five. After a leadoff triple in the first inning, he regrouped and struck out the side, a nice early sign of poise. His fastball topped out at 97.1 mph while sitting around 95, and he generated a ridiculous 12 swinging strikes on 46 pitches. Detroit simply couldn’t handle his fastball or changeup. The breaking ball command wavered at times, but overall, it was a very strong first outing for Abel. Who’s Not? ? Connor Prielipp: He didn’t allow a run and was credited with the win Monday, but this wasn’t the clean outing you were hoping for from Prielipp. Over 1 2/3 innings against Detroit’s projected starters, he gave up one hit, walked three, and struck out two. The stuff itself was solid. His fastball topped out at 97.5 mph, and both the slider and changeup regularly crept into the low 90s. The issue was location. He threw just 21 strikes on 41 pitches, and when you’re walking three of the nine hitters you face, it’s hard to call it sharp, even if the radar gun looks great. The arsenal is there; the command just has to catch up. Matt Wallner: Through five plate appearances this spring, Matt Wallner is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts. The only ball he’s put in play was a pop-up. It’s five plate appearances, and nobody’s panicking in February. But for a hitter whose profile already includes swing-and-miss red flags, you’d rather see some early contact. Again, this is spring training. These games often turn into minor-league scrimmages by the middle innings. A hot week doesn’t guarantee anything, and a slow one doesn’t doom anyone. But if we’re just taking an early pulse, a few Twins prospects are already making this spring a lot more interesting. View full article

What if the next frontline arm in Minnesota is already in the system? Zebby Matthews has the pitch mix, the command, and the quiet confidence that scream breakout starter, and his upside might be even higher than people realize. Let’s talk about why the Twins could be sitting on something special. View full video

I think it's going to have to be Lewis, but health is going to be the key factor there. Outside of those four, you're hoping to get those top few prospects (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper) up early on, all of whom can contribute

Image courtesy of Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images For years, the Minnesota Twins have largely played a station-to-station brand of baseball. They’ve relied on power, damage in the gaps, and waiting for the big swing. The Twins have never really built their game around stealing bases; it’s always been more of an afterthought. That could change in 2026. With Derek Shelton stepping in as manager, there’s real reason to believe the Twins are going to force the issue more on the basepaths. Shelton has a reputation for being more aggressive than most managers, and he hasn’t exactly hidden his intentions for the upcoming season. “I think the first thing is, I’m going to build off what happened in September,” Shelton told reporters in the early days of camp. “I really like what happened in September. Ultra-aggressive on the bases. Started to push the envelope a little bit. I think we have to continue on that. That’s proven to be good.” That’s a very clear directive: continue what worked, and put pressure on opponents. So, who can you expect to be aggressive on the basepaths this year? There are a couple of very safe bets to start with, beginning with Byron Buxton. We’ve known about Buxton’s speed for over a decade. Even as injuries have forced adjustments to his game, the speed has never disappeared. Last season, he stole 24 bases without being thrown out once. That’s elite efficiency, and efficiency is what earns a consistent green light. If Buxton is healthy, he’s going to run. It’s that simple. And hitting near the top of the lineup means more chances to turn a walk or single into immediate scoring position. Shelton’s philosophy, paired with Buxton’s track record, feels like a natural match. Then there’s Luke Keaschall, who might have the most upside in this entire conversation. Keaschall stole 14 bases in 49 MLB games last season. He added 11 more in just 28 games at Triple-A before his call-up. The speed translated instantly, but more importantly, the aggressiveness did too. He wasn’t waiting around to see how the league would adjust; he was forcing the issue. Here’s what really stands out: Keaschall has played exactly 162 minor league games in his pro career. In those 162 games, he stole 45 bases on 53 attempts. That’s an 85% success rate over what amounts to a full season. You don’t have to project anything – he’s already shown he can maintain that pace over time. The Twins haven’t had a player steal 40 bases in a season since Ben Revere did it in 2012. Keaschall is the type of player who could end that drought. If he and Buxton are batting one-two, expect movement, and expect action. That alone changes how opposing pitchers operate from the first inning on. The potential uptick doesn’t stop there, though. The next name, however, comes with a major caveat: Royce Lewis. Lewis has never been a high-volume base stealer in the majors. From 2022 through 2024, he stole just six total bases. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, he swiped nine just in the month of September. For his career, he’s 18-for-21 in stolen base attempts. That tells you he’s capable. The instincts are there, and his athleticism is obvious. The question isn’t whether he can run, it’s whether he’ll be healthy enough to attempt it consistently. That’ll be the tricky part. Staying in the lineup doesn’t automatically mean he’s physically able to explode out of a lead and slide aggressively into second. If he’s fully healthy, Shelton could absolutely encourage more attempts. But that hinges on durability. Another intriguing piece is Austin Martin. Martin isn’t likely to be an everyday player, and is not even a lock for the Opening Day roster, but he’s one of the better pure athletes in the team's mix. He stole 11 bases in 50 MLB games last year. Earlier in his minor league career, he swiped 35 bases in 2022, followed by 19 in 2023 and 15 in 2024 before totaling 14 between the minors and majors last season. The attempts have dipped, which likely reflects role more than ability. If he’s used as a platoon option against lefties or as a late-game pinch-runner, Shelton could weaponize him situationally. That’s where aggression can show up in smaller, but meaningful, bursts. And then there’s the pipeline. Emmanuel Rodriguez stole 10 bases in 65 games last season and could see time in the majors this year. Walker Jenkins has the athleticism to contribute on the bases when he arrives. Kaelen Culpepper stole 25 bases on 29 attempts in the minors last season. The larger point is this: the roster will have some speed. It’s just a matter of philosophy. The Twins haven’t been a high-volume stolen base team in recent years. Even when they’ve had individual speed threats, the overall approach has leaned conservative. That’s not necessarily wrong. But in today’s MLB environment, with rules that favor runners and limit pickoff attempts, being selectively aggressive can create a tangible edge. Encourage Buxton and Keaschall to run at the top. Mix in opportunistic aggression from Lewis when healthy. Use Martin strategically. Sprinkle in contributions from Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Culpepper as the season unfolds. It doesn’t require the Twins to suddenly lead the league in stolen base attempts, as they did after the deadline last year. It just requires them to make pitchers uncomfortable and defenses rushed. This feels like the year that could change. Not because the Twins are trying to become the fastest team in baseball, but because the manager and the personnel finally align with a more aggressive style. View full article

In 2026, the Twins could have a secret weapon in Austin Martin. He can play almost anywhere, he gets on base, and he gives the team flexibility that might just be invaluable over a long season. Think of him as Minnesota’s ultimate Swiss army knife. View full video

Marek Houston might not be the biggest name in the Twins’ farm system right now, but that could change quickly. In this video, we break down what he does well, why his skill set matters at shortstop, and how realistic his path to Minnesota actually is. View full video

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Matt Wallner is entering his fifth season on the big-league roster. At this point, we kind of know what he is—and we kind of don’t. He’s spent time in left field and at DH, but the overwhelming majority of his innings have come in right field for the Twins. That’s not by accident. He has an absolute cannon for an arm. According to Statcast, his arm strength ranked in the 99th percentile of all outfielders in 2025. It was 99th percentile in 2024 and 100th percentile in 2023. That gives him real defensive upside, despite the struggles he's had in properly positioning himself and getting to balls fast enough to let the arm play as well as it should. Offensively, it’s been even more of a rollercoaster. In 2025, Wallner hit just .202. That’s the number that jumps off the page, and not in a good way. His on-base percentage was .311, which is respectable for someone barely clearing the Mendoza Line, but when your batting average starts with a “.20,” there’s only so much spin you can put on it. The expected stats don’t bail him out. His expected batting average sat at .205, right in line with the results. This wasn’t a case of screaming line drives right at defenders or terrible luck. He simply didn’t make enough consistent, high-quality contact to deserve much better. It's not exactly a mystery why he struggled; we diagnosed his problems last summer. It’s also not the first time we’ve seen this. In 2024, Wallner broke camp with the team, but hit just .213 with 27 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances before being sent down to Triple-A. That’s understandable if you’re 22, but when you’re 26 (with multiple seasons of big-league time), those stretches feel more significant. To his credit, he responded. After getting called back up in 2024, he hit .272 with 25 extra-base hits over his final 55 games. The swing decisions improved, and the power played better, without him completely selling out for it. That stretch created real optimism heading into 2025. Unfortunately, it didn’t carry over consistently. League-wide offense isn’t what it used to be. A .275 hitter today is basically what a .300 hitter was 30 years ago. Pitchers are better, velocity is up, and bullpens are deeper. Context matters. Still, it's rare to see someone hit around .200 and be a truly impactful everyday player. Yes, there are exceptions. Kyle Schwarber has done it with the Philadelphia Phillies, but he’s also launching 45-plus home runs and posting elite on-base numbers. That’s a different tier of production. Arguably, that's the right road map for Wallner, but for all his bat speed and strength, he hasn't shown the same caliber of in-game power Schwarber has. Wallner’s 2025 pace over 162 games would’ve put him around 34 home runs, which isn’t bad. But if your profile is built around power, 34 feels more “solid” than “game-changing.” That’s roughly one home run every five games. Fellow age-27 Minnesota native Michael Busch hit 34 homers for the Cubs, but he also had a much lower strikeout rate and showed the ability to hit line drives to all fields. If you’re making your living off the long ball the way Wallner does, you’d hope for quite a bit more. Here’s where it gets interesting. There were real signs of progress under the hood in 2025. His strikeout rate dropped to 29%. That’s still not good, but it’s a significant improvement from the 36.4% mark in 2024. Yes, he made more bad contact, thanks to his flatter bat path, and yes, some of the strikeout decrease had to do with being more aggressive early in counts, but for a player with this much pop, being aggressive is ok. The raw power remains very real. His barrel rate stayed comfortably better than average, and his average exit velocity hovered north of 90 mph. Both numbers were lower than in 2024, but that's the cost of making more contact. When he squares it up, it goes a long way. The question is whether he can do so more consistently this season. Health hasn’t helped. Wallner got off to a slow start in 2025, then dealt with a midseason injury that stalled any momentum he was building. For a hitter who thrives on rhythm and timing, that matters. It’s hard to make adjustments when you’re constantly resetting. I want to believe in Matt Wallner. I want to tell you he’s about to put it together and become a 35-homer, .250 hitter with a .350 OBP and a rocket launcher in right field. But I can’t say that with full confidence. Too many signals are garbled, or pointing in the wrong direction. If he can push the batting average back into the .250 range, which he’s flashed before, his profile changes dramatically. A .250 hitter with a 12% walk rate and 30-plus homer power plays. Add elite arm strength (and maybe some better routes, with more experience and instruction) in right field, and now you’re talking about a very valuable player. Maybe the more likely outcome is something frustratingly but usefully in-between. PECOTA projects Wallner to hit .222/.326/.427 in 489 plate appearances this year: not fully available, not fully breaking out, but not struggling the way he did last year, either. There’s a lot of volatility with Wallner. His floor is a streaky power bat who doesn’t make enough contact. But the ceiling is a true impact corner outfielder who changes games on both sides of the ball. That’s why 2026 feels pivotal. If he has another season like last year, it'll be hard to muster much enthusiasm next spring. Indeed, it might be some other fan base doing the mustering by then. View full article