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Eric Blonigen

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Blog Entries posted by Eric Blonigen

  1. Eric Blonigen
    Over the past few days, there have been some great articles written about Mauer’s accomplishments - the batting titles, the MVP season, the records, and the magic he brought to life on a near-daily basis for 15 years.
    Today, he was deservingly enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame alongside Todd Helton, Adrian Beltré, and Manager Jim Leyland in Cooperstown, New York. I was fortunate enough to be present for it. 
    Being there was an amazing experience. That is likely true for a number of other members of Twins Territory as well. Anecdotally, close to half of the fans in attendance wearing jerseys, team shirts, or other memorabilia were repping Mauer.

    The whole weekend was a celebration of baseball legends, with a parade on Saturday, the induction today, and a speaker’s series taking place tomorrow with a Q&A panel with this year’s inductees.
    Walking through the picturesque small-town downtown area, there were over a dozen cash-only vendors selling hot dogs and burgers they were grilling along the sidewalks. Children were operating lemonade stands and selling water from portable coolers. You couldn’t walk more that 10 feet without someone going the other direction saying “Hey! Joe Mauer!” Former players such as Fergie Jenkins were signing autographs. There were half a dozen baseball card shops selling memorabilia of the greats, from game-used gloves and bats, to autographed jerseys, to baseball movie-inspired gear.

    The induction itself took place in a large field a mile or so outside of town, as Cooperstown only has around 2000 residents outside of HOF-weekend, and tens of thousands descend from near and far to celebrate the game most of us have loved since we were children.
    At the ceremony, prior to the new inductees being introduced, some 45 other HOFers were brought to the stage and their accomplishments were celebrated briefly. The Twins were well-represented, with Tony O, Rod Carew, Dave Winfield, Jack Morris, Jim Kaat, Paul Molitor, David Ortiz, and Jim Thome all present. These players received some of the loudest standing ovations from the crowd. Rob Manfred and Bud Selig were also introduced, and they were the only people to be booed by the audience, which…seems right. 
    Helton’s speech was the funniest, telling stories about his superstitions and his facial hair. Leyland’s was the most emotional, as the crusty baseball lifer got choked up multiple times as he reflected on the game. Beltre celebrated the teammates he loved to play with. Mauer’s speech was the most…Mauer. Joe’s humility was striking. Unlike the others, he did not share baseball anecdotes. He didn’t crack jokes. He instead focused on thanking everyone else - from the scouts, to his family, his high school coaches, and medical staff, Mayo Clinic doctors, and trainers that believed in him throughout his career. He built in pauses for people to applaud those others, and when the cheering wasn’t to his liking, he implored the audience to cheer louder and longer for those who see important to him. He even claimed his mom was the best athlete in the family. In typical Mauer fashion, he chose to stay out of the spotlight - even on a day honoring him. 
    It will likely be at least 15 years before we see another player enter the hall as a member of the Twins, and that’s if a lot of things break right. It’ll likely be even longer waiting for another player as special as Mauer to come along. Even if you don’t have a chance to see one of your favorite players being inducted, Cooperstown is still well-worth a visit, as the museum can entertain for hours, with every turn presenting another artifact that brings back baseball memories. 

    Abner Doubleday field is also just a block or so away from the Baseball Hall. This field over 100 years old, and is on the spot where he (apocryphally) invented the game of baseball.
     

    Comment below if you were at the induction today, or if you have a favorite Mauer memory you want to share!
  2. Eric Blonigen
    Ok. We did it. On to the 2020s. This has been an interesting decade. We started with the pandemic-shortened season and empty stadiums. We have seen the introduction of larger bases, pitch clocks, shift limitations, and the Manfred Man. We have also had some pretty good teams, including one that broke our playoff losing streak.
     
    As I mentioned in the first article in this series, we need to get a little creative here since the decade is only half over. As a result, I will double the WAR total for this all-decade team. Is it scientific? Nope. Will it tell an accurate story? Maybe. Read on and find out. 
    Let's take a look at the 2020s all-decade team, so far.

    Starting Pitching
    SP1 - Sonny Gray - 2023. Sonny Gray has a rule. He will be an All-Star every four seasons. 2015, 2019, and 2023. With the Twins, he pitched to a 2.79 ERA, and that was bolstered by a 2.83 FIP. He led the league in home run rate (in a positive way), allowing just .4 HR/9. His pitching was good for a 154 ERA+, and he struck out roughly a batter per inning. While he often argued against being pulled from the game, it’s tough to argue with the results.
    SP2 - Pablo Lopez - 2023. In the 2023 offseason, the Twins traded Luis Arraez, fresh off his batting title, for their hopeful ace pitcher. They taught Pablo a sweeper, and he was great in his first season with the team, making his first All-Star team. He cut his walk rate and attacked the zone, ending the season with just shy of 11 K/9.
    Relief Pitching
    CL - Taylor Rogers - 2021. Rogers was the latest in a long line of failed starters being converted to the bullpen, then becoming lights-out relievers. In 2021, he had a 2.13 FIP and over 13 K/9. He gave up less than 1 HR/9, and walked just 8 guys all season in 40 games. He was great, until he wasn’t.
    Lineup
    1B - Luis Arraez - 2022. El Regador sprayed singles all over the field on his way to his first batting title. He demonstrated a savant-like understanding of the strike zone, and hit 28% better than league average. He was fun to watch, as he would shake his head at pitches outside of the zone. He walked a decent amount, and rarely struck out. In 2022, he walked more than he struck out. Defensively, he was neutral at first base, which is impressive in itself based on his size. Stylistically, he was a throwback player who may have looked more at home on some of the 1960s and 70s teams. He also had great intangibles, offering up fun (and funny) interviews postgame.
    2B - Willi Castro - 2024. Cast off from the Tigers in his first arb-eligible season, he has been a revelation for the Twins. Last year, he was one of their best 3-4 position players. This year, he has been even better, and has done so while playing at least 20 games at 5 different positions by the halfway point - the first player in history to accomplish that feat. Castro has played passable defense everywhere he has played, and has been an iron man, playing if every game this season. He’s on pace for 5 WAR, and is under team control. From a hitting standpoint, he has been 21% better than average. He is also one of the only guys on the team who has wheels, with 10 SB in the first half a season.
    SS - Carlos Correa - 2024. Correa is having his best season in a Twins uniform, and it would be close to MVP caliber if not for Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt. In half a season, C4 has a 151 OPS+, and has made more than a handful of slick fielding plays that someone without his instincts just wouldn’t make. He’s hitting .308 at the halfway point, and is on pace for almost 80 XBH.
    OF - Byron Buxton - 2022. This was (another) injury-shortened season for Buck. Despite being limited to 92 games, Buxton clubbed 28 HRs. That’s a 49-HR pace, which for a strong defensive center fielder is pretty dang good. He hit 33% better than league average, and made his presence felt in nearly every game he played. The healthy version of Buck is one of the most fun players I have watched in my 35+ years of fandom.
    DH - Nelson Cruz - 2021. The Boomstick brought the boom, hitting 32 homers in his age-40 season. He was 29% better than average as a hitter, and that’s after his decline upon being traded to the Rays for Joe Ryan. Having a 93 MPH average exit velocity, and slugging .497 as a 40-year-old is impressive, and a feat that very few others have done before him. Must have been the naps.
    To date, the 2020s all-decade team has accumulated 25.7 WAR. Doubling that for rough parity, they may be worth 51.4 WAR. With the 52 replacement wins, that may put them at 103.4 wins. Very, very good. However, they are still outpaced by the 1960s team.

    There is still lots of time, and the remainder of this decade should see All-Star appearances by guys like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Jose Miranda, Joe Ryan, and hopefully guys like Walker Jenkins, Eddie Julien, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Matt Wallner. The future is bright. We currently have a TON of young, talented, and controllable guys. Will the next 5 years cement an all-time-great decade? We will have to watch and see.
    Are you surprised that the 1960s won? Do you think the 2020s have a real chance to overtake them? Did you like this activity? Comment below your thoughts.
  3. Eric Blonigen
    Welcome to part six of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 2010s. The 1960s are still reigning supreme. Can the 2010s all-decade team be the one to take the 60s down?
    The 2010s Twins Teams
    We are almost there! The 2010s featured the tail end of the Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer core, and the introduction of the Dozier/Berrios/Sano/Polanco/Kepler core. The middle part of the decade also featured some pretty terrible teams, and the “total system failure” that led to jettisoning the Terry Ryan front office and bringing in Falvey and Levine. It also saw them cycle through managers, moving from Gardy, to Paul Molitor, to Rocco Baldelli. The Twins spent the entire decade at their new home, as Target Field opened to the public for the 2010 season. We also saw the Bomba Squad set the all-time HR record in 2019 (although they were helped by the juiced ball). But what about their All-Stars? How was the 2010s all-decade team? Did it stand a chance against the powerhouses from the 1960s and 1970s? Read on to find out.

    Starting Pitching
    SP1 - Jose Berrios - 2019. This was Berrios’ second straight All-Star nod. He was a workhorse, throwing 200 innings. He struck out 195, and ended the season with a 3.68 ERA and similar 3.85 FIP. He also fielded his position well. Prior to the season, he had focused on improving his changeup. He also worked on his pitch mix. Those tweaks helped him to very solid results.
    SP2 - Jake Odorizzi - 2019. Odorizzi made his lone All-Star team in 2019. It was a career year for him after spending the winter at the Florida Baseball Ranch working on his mechanics. His velocity was up and he struck out 10.1/9, gave up just .9 HR/9, and finished with a 3.51 ERA and even better 3.3 FIP. In the juiced ball year, this is especially impressive since offensive numbers were way up.
    SP3 - Ervin Santana - 2017. Did you know that Ervin is just a name he made up? True story. His real name is Johan. But, since there was already a pretty good player by that name, he changed it to avoid confusion. Maybe one of the players named Diego Castillo in our system should consider something similar. Name aside, Santana had a good season in 2017, although it was bolstered a bit by luck, and by his defense. He had a 3.28 ERA, but his FIP was more than a full run higher, at 4.46. He was helped by a .247 BABIP, but he did wind up being 35% better than average. He didn’t strike a ton of guys out, at 7.1/9. He did go deep in ballgames, with 5 complete games and 3 shutouts. Overall, this was one of the best pitching seasons since Johan left.
     
    Relief Pitchers
    CL - Glen Perkins - 2013. Perkins was a great closer for a long time, but 2013 was the best of the best. He finished with a 178 ERA+, saved 36 games, and pitched to a 2.3 ERA. He struck out 11.1/9, and his WHIP was fantastic at .926. He also had some of the best entrance music in baseball, with Johnny Cash’s “God’s Gonna Cut You Down” likely filling opposing hitters with dread. His career - stop me if you’ve heard this before - was cut short by injuries, as he tried to recover from labrum surgery. Luckily, we still get to experience Perk on broadcasts (if you are fortunate enough to be able to watch. Sorry, everyone else).
     
    SU - Brandon Kintzler - 2017. Kintzler became the de facto closer after Perkins was injured in 2016. The Twins were enamored with his results, never mind that the underlying peripherals said he wasn’t that great. In 2017, the sinkerballer pitched to a 3.03 ERA despite only striking out 4.9/9. He didn’t walk a ton of guys though, and his depressed BABIP and 77% strand rate helped as well. Kintzler was the last of the “pitch to contact” closers for the Twins.
    Lineup
    C - Joe Mauer - 2013. Another year, another great Mauer season. He had his typical upper-.800s OPS, batting .324/.404/.476/.880, 42% better than league average. He won his 5th and final Silver Slugger in his final season behind the dish, in which he had yet another concussion. After the season, he became strictly a first baseman and DH. I know I said this in part 5, but Mauer was truly a special player.
    1B - Justin Morneau - 2010. Morny was at the peak of his power in 2010 - literally. He finished the season with a 1.055 OPS, 87% better than league average. He walked almost as much as he struck out. Unfortunately, a concussion ended his season at the midway point after a head-first collision at second base, and that brain injury ended his peak and began his inexorable decline. He had accounted for 4.7 WAR in 81 games, and in addition to the best offensive output of his career, he was also playing his best defense at 1B. His WOBA also suggested he should have been performing about 10 points better than he was. Just incredible. Had he kept it up, he likely would have won his second MVP. He’s another player about whom you have to wonder what if.
    2B - Brian Dozier - 2015. Bull Dozier had a nice little career, but 2015 was his only All-Star nod, despite it being far from his best season. In fact, it was his 4th best season as a member of the Twins. The following year he put up a 6-WAR season but wasn’t selected. The season before he accumulated 5.5 WAR and wasn’t selected. Regardless of those things, 2015 was still solid. He finished the year with a 104 OPS+, clubbed 28 HRs, added 39 doubles, and drew 61 walks. He also played a slightly-better-than-average defense at 2B. His xWOBA suggests that he was a little bit lucky. Dozier’s four-year peak was fun to watch, as it seemed like the first inning was must-watch baseball due to the number of pulled leadoff homers he hit.
    3B - Miguel Sano - 2017. Sanó was likely one of the most polarizing players in recent team history. He had a couple of good seasons in 2015, 2017, and 2019, but his inability to field a position competently, and his inability to catch up to pitches consistently left fans wanting. There aren’t that many players that have documentaries about their lives, and Sanó is one of those few. Pelotero is a fun movie if you haven’t seen it. There also aren’t that many players with the sort of prodigious power that Sanó had. In the past 20 years, it’s Thome, Cruz, Gallo, and Wallner. In 2017, he put up an .859 OPS at the hot corner, good for 26% above league average. His defense wasn’t great, and his hitting was fueled by considerable luck, as he ended the season with a .375 BABIP, which is remarkable for someone of his size and speed. His xWOBA says he should have performed worse, and he also posted the second lowest average exit velocity of his career.
    SS - Jorge Polanco - 2019. Polo was another fun player, and 2019 was his best season. During Spring Training that season, he signed a team-friendly 5-year extension along with Kepler. He responded by playing out of his mind all year. He received down ballot MVP votes for putting up an .841 OPS at short. He was a part of the Bomba Squad, hitting 22 HR and finishing the year with a .485 slugging. He was a plus baserunner, and struck out at a 16.5% clip, much better than league average. The switch-hitter started the season with a bang, hitting for the first cycle of 2019 on April 5. Selected in the same international draft as Kepler and Sanó, Polanco was seen by many as the lifeblood of the team for at least a few years.
    OF - Michael Cuddyer - 2011. Cuddyer was a magician. Literally. I also ran into him once in a mall. Also literally. Not paying attention, I was looking at my phone and crashed into him in the Southdale mall. Not related to baseball, but he was very nice about it. He was a solidly above average player. Not a superstar, but he could be counted on to be solid year in and year out. At 2.3 WAR in 2011, he probably wasn’t worthy of an All-Star nod, but I’m not gonna take that away from him. With a 120 OPS+, he was above-average, but didn’t have any standout stats. He did, however, demonstrate positional flexibility, playing 77 games in RF, 17 at 2B, 46 at 1B, and also pitched an inning. He was also seen as a clubhouse leader, finding ways to lighten the mood and help younger players grow. Following the season, he signed a two-year deal with the Rockies (and won a batting title for them in 2013).
    Overall, the 2010s team accumulated 38.6 WAR. With the 52 replacement wins, that gives them 90.6 overall. Not good, not terrible, but just squeaking by into the playoffs. That describes a lot of Twins teams throughout the past 20 years. The 1960s are still the decade to beat.

    Comment below with your thoughts and memories from these players and seasons. Do you think the 2020s stand a chance at defeating the 1960s team?
  4. Eric Blonigen
    Welcome to part five of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 2000s. Will they be the team to finally  overthrow the 1960s all-decade team?
    The 2000s Twins Teams
    At the turn of the century, the Twins were facing contraction. Rumors flew regarding plans to move the team. The Metrodome was one of the worst ballparks in the league, and the Pohlads weren’t interested in investing in significant upgrades or building a new stadium on their dime. Contraction would have meant a $250M payout for ownership. Owners collectively voted 28-2 in favor of contraction, and plans were only halted when a judge ruled that the team was contractually obligated to finish their lease. Then, the team started to play well, and public funding was approved for a new ballpark - Target Field. The 2000s brought some very fun players, including one being inducted to the Hall of Fame this weekend. It also saw us non-tender players like David Ortiz, who went on to have a HOF career. How do these teams stack up against the earlier decades? Read on to find out!

    Starting Pitchers
    SP1 - Johan Santana - In 2006, Johan went 19-6. He led the league with a 2.77 ERA, led the league in strikeouts (245), ERA+ (162), WHIP (.997), Wins (19), and strikeout rate (9.4). He won his second (should have been third) Cy Young, and was utterly dominant throughout the entire season. He only lost one game in his final 11 of the season. He won the pitching triple crown that year. By WAR, he was the most valuable player in the American League that season, and it wasn’t close. His WPA was an incredible 4, and he held hitters to a collective .618 OPS. That’s Manny Margot territory. He was truly special. What’s wild is that he was the second-best pitcher on the team for half that season. Check out SP3 for more info on that one. Unfortunately for the Twins, Johan’s dominant peak meant they would not be willing to extend him, and they traded him away a year later. Post-trade, he was middling, and injuries ended his HOF-trajectory career too soon. Sound familiar, Twins fans?
    SP2 - Joe Mays - in 2001, Mays had his one great season, where he was worth 6.6 WAR, 2nd best in the AL. He also finished first in ERA+He pitched to a 3.16 ERA (although his FIP was a full run higher). He didn’t really strike anyone out, with just 4.7 K/9. But, this was still the steroids era, and this kind of output was well above average. What got him selected as an All-Star was his first-half output. He had 11 wins, a 3.02 ERA, and a FIP that more closely resembled his actual ERA. After this season, Mays went on to be the mediocre pitcher he had been before 2001 and was out of the sport at 30.
    SP 3 - Francisco Liriano - in 2006, Liriano showed Twins fans what a healthy super-prospect is capable of. He also showed Twins fans the crushing disappointment of injuries derailing said prospects’ careers. In this case, Liriano began the season with maybe the most impressive first half of a rookie season as I’ve ever seen. I remember watching his first start and being utterly blown away by his fastball/slider combo, and watching hitter make embarrassing swings  was a highlight of Liriano days. In just 16 starts, he went 12-3, with a 2.16 ERA. In the steroids era. He struck out 10.7/9. His ERA+ was 208. His FIP was just 1.0. His numbers were that of the best relievers in the game - as a starter. He was on track to the the Cy Young favorite over Johan. If not for blowing out his elbow, he may have been the true ace we have not seen since Johan was traded to the Mets. He is also a key part of maybe the best trade the Twins have ever made, receiving Liriano, Joe Nathan, and Boof Bonser for a year of AJ Pierzynski.
    Relief Pitchers
    Joe Nathan - in 2004, Joe Nathan was a dominant closer. He earned 44 saves, with a 1.62 ERA. His ERA+ was 294. That might be the highest I’ve seen. He let the AL in WPA that season, with a remarkable 5.8 WPA, the definition of clutch. And again, I want to remind you this was the steroid era. Watching Nathan’s quirks on the mound was one of my favorite parts of the late innings, with his head-shaking and neighing being truly unique. He went on to save more games than any other closer in team history
    Eddie Guardado - 2002 - Everyday Eddie was not a good starting pitcher. However, after he was converted to the bullpen, he was pretty good. It was sometimes an experience, but he made back-to-back All-Star teams. In 2002, he led the league in saves (45), striking out over a batter per inning. He received MVP votes as a relief pitcher, which is uncommon to say the least. He was instrumental in the Twins’ postseason run, in which they took down the Moneyball As. In his career overall, he appeared in 908 games, 22nd-most all time. He eventually joined the Twins HOF.
    Lineup
    C - Joe Mauer - 2009 - Mauer’s 2009 season was incredible. Despite missing the first month of the season with an injury, he led the league in most offensive categories, winning his third batting title, MVP, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glove. He led the league in batting average (.365), OBP (.444), SLG (.587), and OPS+. He was 71% better than an average hitter, and he did it while playing great defense and the most physically-demanding position. The 2009 season was also Mauer’s only season with significant power. Overall, he posted the 5th highest WAR total for any catcher in baseball histroy. Back in 2009, I was not yet well-versed in analytics and advanced metrics, and unfortunately, I didn’t fully appreciate how special he was in those early seasons. Luckily, he’s being rewarded for a legendary career by being indicated into Cooperstown this weekend.
    1B - Justin Morneau - 2008. We can’t have an all-decade team without BOTH of the M&M boys being represented, so it’s nice that that storyline fit into this methodology as well. Morneau is a great example of an incredibly talented player’s career being diminished by injuries. If not for his concussions, he may have been joining Mauer in the Hall of Fame. Instead, he burned bright and faded a bit. In 2008, Morneau played in all 163 games. He took almost as many walks (76) as strikeouts (85). He hit 23 homers and another 47 doubles. He hit .300, with a .499 slugging, good for an OPS+ of 134. He won a Silver Slugger at 1B for his efforts, and was runner-up for his second MVP. Oh, and he won the Home Run Derby, beating Josh Hamilton in the finals. Of note, he became the only Canadian to win the HRD.
    SS - Cristian Guzman - 2001. Coming to the Twins as part of the Knoblach trade that also brought Eric Milton and Brian Buchanon to the team, Guzman had two very good seasons, and one occurred in his All-Star season with the Twins. En route to accumulating 4.8 WAR, Guzman was very good on both sides of his game. He led the league in triples (14), stole 24 bases, had a .302 BA, walked more than he struck out, and was good for a 111 OPS+ at a premium defensive position. The best memory of that season for him was his inside-the-park home run on a bunt. To be fair, a three-base throwing error was involved as well, but still, four bases on a bunt requires some wheels.
    OF - Matt Lawton - in 2000, Matt Lawton made an All-Star team for the Twins. Did he play well enough to deserve it? Not really. He was fine, rather than great. But, he fills a spot in our lineup. Offensively, he was fine. Lawton finished the year with a 116 OPS+, hit .305, and got on base at a .405 clip. He had more gap power than homer power, but did hit 44 doubles. However, he was a bit of a butcher in the field, costing the team 11 runs compared to an average fielder.
    OF - Torii Hunter - 2007. Hunter was one of my favorite players in the 2000s. His speed, enthusiasm, and sense of fun made him really stand out. He also had a propensity to ground out to short in key spots (this showed up in his WPA pretty frequently, as over his 18-year career, he accumulated just 3.8 WPA). So, it was a bit of a love/hate situation. However, he was very good overall, and ended up having a borderline HOF career. In 2007, he made his second of five All-Star appearances. While playing Gold Glove caliber defense, he also hit to an .839 OPS, 23% better than average. He received down ballot MVP votes as well. Following the season, he signed a 6-year deal with the Angels.
    The 2000s all-decade team accumulated 45.7 WAR. With the 52 replacement wins, this decade was good for 97.7 wins overall. Not bad, but still not as good as the 60s or 70s.

    Stay tuned for tomorrow’s look at the 2010s. And, comment below your thoughts on this all-decade team!
  5. Eric Blonigen
    Welcome to part four of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 1990s. Can they overthrow the 1960s all-decade team?
    The 1990s Twins Teams
    The 1990s! The start of my baseball memories. As a child, I recall staying up late each night during the 1991 World Series, and I fervently collected every Twins baseball card I could find. There were some interesting feats throughout the decade. In 1990, the team turned two triple plays in the same game, which had never been done before. Dave Winfield and Paul Molitor both had their swan songs with the 1990s teams, both crossing 3000 hits for the Twins. 1994 was strike-shortened. Terry Ryan became GM. Kirby Puckett developed glaucoma and had to retire too soon. But, how were the teams? Largely terrible, with seven straight losing seasons to close out the decade. However, many guys then went on to become the core of the early 2000s teams debuted. Let’s look at the all-decade team.

    Starting Pitchers
    In the 90s, we are back to having a solid top-3 SP.
    SP1 - Brad Radke - 1998 in his only All-Star nod. That’s a little shocking for a player who amassed over 45 career WAR and should have received more HOF attention than he got. Pitching in the steroid era was tough, as evidenced by his 5.2 WAR despite pitching to a 4.3 ERA. Even that was 11% better than league average. His FIP was a half-run lower, and his command was excellent, allowing just 1.8 BB/9. Radke served as the face of the franchise to close out the century, while most other veterans were traded away for prospects and spare parts. My favorite memory of Radke came several seasons later, when it was revealed that he had been pitching with a torn labrum, and could barely raise his arm between starts. Despite that, he gritted out a couple final, solid seasons.
    SP2 - Scott Erickson - 1991. In his first full season, he was runner-up for Cy Young behind Roger Clemens, pitching to a 135 ERA+ and a 3.18 ERA. He won 20 games, finishing 5 of them with 3 shutouts. He was part of the ’91 WS team, pitching to two no-decisions in the series. He was the first player in almost 40 years to win 20 games in his first full season. After the season, he went on to struggle for a few years and was eventually traded to Baltimore. Later in life, he was charged with reckless driving, and hit and killed a couple kids. Not great.
    SP3 - Blackjack Morris - 1991. In his only season with the Twins, he was worth 4.3 WAR, with a 3.4 ERA and similar FIP, good for 25% better than average. As the workhorse he was, he pitched three games in the ’91 World Series, going 2-0, allowing just 3 runs in 23 innings. His Game 7, 10-inning complete game shutout while pitching against another great in John Smoltz was a masterclass in pitching and winning through sheer determination. TK went to pull him after the 9th and Morris blew him off, demanding to finish the game. Morris was part of three different World Series winning teams. Interestingly, Morris was the recipient of the first Major League contract featuring a player option or opt-out, receiving a 3/$9M deal. Of course, he opted out after that one great season.
    Relievers
    CL - Rick Aguilera - 1991, as our bullpen ace, he accumulated 2.4 WAR as a reliever, which is slightly challenging to do. It helps when you can put up a 183 OPS+. He struck out 8/9IP which is somewhat monumental for the era. He put up 41 saves that season, and received MVP votes, finishing 18th in balloting. In the ALCS that year, he collected three saves while being almost perfect. He got saves in the first two games of the World Series, but lost game 3.
    Lineup
    The lineup is…pretty thin. Just three positions were filled with All-Star nods over an entire decade.
    1B -  Rob Coomer - 1999. To be clear, Coom Dawg shouldn’t have been an All-Star. As a FIRST BASEMAN, he hit to an 82 OPS+. Ron Coomer is the downside to every team needing an All-Star, as he was barely above replacement level on the season. Hey, at least he was good on broadcasts in the 2000s and 2010s…
    2B - Chuck Knoblach - 1996. To be clear, he SHOULD have been an All-Star, posting 8.7 WAR. On the season, his contributions trailed just Barry Bond, A-Rod, and The Kid. He led the league in triples (14), and finished the season with a .965 OPS while playing good defense at second. He walked MORE than he struck out, and also swiped 45 bags. He signed a new deal mid-season, becoming the highest-paid 2nd baseman in baseball - well-earned for the former Rookie of the Year. Before the anger-management issues, the trade, the yips, and the hot dog incident, Knoblach was a truly special player.
    OF - Kirby Puckett - 1992. He was great. He did a little bit of everything, stealing 17 bases, hitting .329, hitting 19 homers while leading the league in hits, winning his 4th batting title while playing a solid CF. At the end of the season, he signed the second-largest contract extension in baseball history - a 5/$30M deal which solidified that he would be a member of the Twins for life.
    The 90s team finished in a similar place to the 80s team, accumulating 32.9 WAR. With the 52 replacement wins, that puts them at 84.9 wins, once again just above .500. The 1960s all-decade team still reigns supreme.

    Stay tuned til tomorrow, when we will look at the all-decade team of the 2000s. What do you think? Does it get better from here? Do they have a chance at taking the lead against the 60s team? Comment below!
  6. Eric Blonigen
    Welcome to part three of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 1980s. Can they overthrow the 1960s all-decade team?
    The 1980s Twins Teams
    Oh, the 80s. We saw the introductions of franchise greats like Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, and others. In 1988, the Twins set a league record for making the fewest errors in a season. They also won the World Series in ’87. Aside from those few bright spots, it was not the Twins’ finest decade. We saw the opening of the Metrodome, in all it’s astroturf and bathroom trough glory. 1984 saw the Pohlads attempt to take advantage of an attendance clause in their lease that said if they didn’t draw enough fans, they could vacate the lease and move the team. Sound like the plot of Major League? Yeah, I thought so too. The decade also featured several pretty bad seasons.
    How did the all-decade team stack up? To this point, the 1960s all-decade team is pacing every other decade’s team. Can the few 80s superstars get it done? Let’s dig in.

    Starting Pitchers
    SP1 - Frank Viola - 1988. He was the ace. Fresh off his epic 1987 World Series run, Sweet Music went 24-7 en route to his only All-Star selection as a member of the Twins. He had a 2.64 ERA and a 154 ERA+, a 1.1 WHIP, and a minuscule 1.8 BB/9. He won the Cy Young for his efforts. In the midst of a four-year peak, he won more games as a lefty than anyone else in baseball, and the third most overall behind Doc Gooden and Jack Morris. Over that stretch, he won 19 straight home games. Not too shabby. He had a contract dispute and was traded midway through the season in a blockbuster with the Mets that brought three players, includingRick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani, who would go on to be members of the '91 World Series team.
    Unfortunately, after Viola, there were no other SP selected for an All-Star nod. The ace stands alone.
    Relief Pitchers
    CL - Jeff Reardon - 1988. The ‘80s did bring a bullpen ace into the mix as The Terminator found his way into 63 games, pitching to a 2.47 ERA. He was 65% better than league average, and received down-ballot MVP votes as a reliever. He had an 80-54 SO/BB ratio. That year, he was featured on the cover of Street & Smith’s annual Baseball Yearbook. A few years later, he would eventually become the all-time saves leader, although he didn’t remain on top for long. In 1988, he was also the first pitcher to record 40-save seasons in both leagues.
    Lineup
    Here we saw a number of mainstays that were also on the ’91 WS team.
    C - Tim Laudner - 1988. This was his only All-Star nod, and even in this season, he was just sort of mediocre. Despite only accumulating 3.2 career WAR and just 1.1 in his All-Star year, he’s the only catcher selected to an AS team that decade. He was a league-average hitter, but performed poorly when it mattered, finishing the season with a -1.2 WPA. There was nothing notable about this season, or about him as a player. Sorry Tim. He was fine on broadcasts and did go to my High School, so there’s that.
    1B - Kent Hrbek - 1982 in his lone selection. Notably, he told MLB not to pick him moving forward. However, in 1982, along with finishing 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting, he was an All-Star. As a 22-year-old, he hit 28% better than league average, hitting .301 on the year. He also swiped three bags.
    3B - Gary Gaetti, “The Rat” - 1988. A member of the ’87 World Series team, he won a Gold Glove in the 1988 season, the third consecutive season in which he accomplished that. He also had a .905 OPS, hit over .300 for the only season in his career, and clubbed 28 homers. He was known for being the energy-bringer to the clubhouse. After the season, Sports Illustrated ran an article in which they surveyed all AL Managers who they thought the best third baseman in the league was, and 10 of them said Gaetti. Fun fact, he recording his final major league hit off of Johan Santana.
    OF - Kirby Pickett - 1988, his third time making the team. It was a great season for him as he led the league in hits (234), total bases (358), hit .356 (the best RH batting average since Joe DiMaggio in 1941), hit 24 home runs, and won the Gold Glove in centerfield. He also won the Silver Slugger, and finished 3rd in MVP balloting in his 7.8 WAR campaign. He notched his 1000th hit in ’88, in just his 5th season. He was the 4th player in history to reach that accomplishment. And, maybe most importantly, I ran into Kirby in 1988 at a Red Owl grocery store. That was the highlight of my 5-year-old life to that point, as I got his autograph on a napkin. He was a lot of fun to watch, and to meet. As Twins fans know all-too-well, he was yet another Twins superstar whose career was cut short by injuries.
    OF - Gary Ward - 1983. While he didn’t put up any standout metrics, he was solid across the board offensively and defensively, above average everywhere you look. With Puckett’s emergence, Ward was traded after the season for a couple of starting pitchers that didn’t do much other than eat innings.
    OF - Tom Brunansky - 1985. Similar to Laudner, Bruno didn’t really deserve to be an All-Star. His lone AS season featured slightly above average hitting with decent power at a 104 OPS+, but well-below-average defense. He finished with 1.4 WAR, below the threshold of being an everyday player. He did participate in the first-ever Home Run Derby, finishing sexond. He had two claims to fame, but neither fell in this All-Star season. First, he was a part of the ’87 World Series team. Second, he once hit an inside-the-park grand slam.
    On the whole, the 1980s all-decade team finished with just 32.5 WAR, with half of that belonging to Puckett and Viola. With the 52 replacement-level wins, the all-decade team finished at 84.5 wins, just above .500. Advantage: 1960s.

    Before looking at the remaining decades, do you think the 80s all-decade team was the worst? Comment below, and stay tuned for tomorrow’s look at the 1990s.
  7. Eric Blonigen
    Welcome to part two of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 1970s. Can they overthrow the 1960s all-decade team?
    The 1970s Twins Teams
    In the 1970s, we saw the tail ends of the careers of storied greats like Killebrew, Oliva, and Carew. The team swung trades for Butch Wynegar, Roy Smalley, and Larry Hisle. The 1970s featured some great new players as well, with John Castino winning Rookie of the Year. Gene Mauch became the Manager. But, the 70s also featured more vacancies on it’s all-decade roster.
    Let’s take a look at the team.

    Starting Pitchers
    SP1 - Bert Blyleven - 1973 - He was the ace of the all-decade team. In 1973, he made his lone All-Star appearance for the team. He put up a remarkable 9.7 WAR, pitching 25 complete games, including 9 shutouts. He threw 325 innings at a 2.52 ERA and an even better 2.32 FIP. He led the league in ERA+, pitching 56% better than the typical pitcher. He was second in strikeouts. Shockingly, he finished just 7th in Cy Young voting despite generating 2 WAR more than the next best pitcher. Circle him.
    SP2 - Jim Perry - 1970. season led him to the #2 starter position on the 70s all-decade team. He led the league in starts and wins, pitched 278 innings of 3.04 ERA ball, and pitched 13 complete games. He finished the season with 3.2 WPA. As a hitter, he posted a better OPS than Christian Vasquez and Kyle Farmer. He also won the Cy Young that year. His brother Gaylord also won a Cy Young two years later, making Jim part of baseball history for multiple reasons, as this is the only time brothers have each won a Cy Young.
    There were no other pitchers - starters or relievers - selected for an All-Star team in the 70s. Let’s look at the lineup.
    Lineup
    C - Butch Wynegar - 1977. He put up a 96 OPS+ as a catcher and put up good defense, accumulating 1.5 WAR on the fielding side of things. He took more walks than strikeouts, and caught 144 games. Not bad for a second-year player.
    1B - Rod Carew - 1977. What a season. Carew won MVP, finished with a 1.019 OPS, and led the league in hits (239), runs (128), triples (16), batting average (.388), OBP (.449), and intentional walks (15). His .388 BA was the highest since Ted Williams 20 years earlier. At mid-season, he was hitting above the .400 mark. He was also a slightly better than average defender. 1977 was also Carew’s third time leading the league in WAR. He was truly his era’s Mike Trout.
    2B - Rod Carew - 1975. Another season, another position, another All-Star nod. This was his second season leading the league in WAR. He also led the league in hits (218), winning his 5th batting title. He was snubbed for MVP, finishing 9th. Did you know that Rod was born on a train, and delivered by a doctor named Rodney Cline? And his mom named him Rodney Cline Carew after the doctor? I didn’t either.
    SS - Roy Smalley - 1979. It was his lone All-Star selection. He played all 162 games, and led the league in plate appearances. He had the same number of strikeouts and walks (80), and hit 10% better than league average. He had a .959 OPS at the All-Star break, and was the odds-on favorite for MVP, but regressed during the second half. In an era where most shortstops were slap hitters, Smalley had 55 extra base hits, and was a good fielder as well. He also offered team leadership, mentoring others. A fan of the weight room, he helped Wynegar bulk up, which improved his hitting as well. He helped pitchers with their mechanics and positioning. Supposedly, he felt like he needed to prove his worth as he was Manager Gene Mauch’s nephew, and he was traded to the Twins at Mauch’s request.
    OF - Tony Oliva - 1970. He finished runner-up for MVP while leading the league in hits (204), doubles (36), and hitting 37% better than league average. This was his last healthy season, as he wrecked his knee on a diving play the following season, requiring 8 operations to attempt to resolve the damage. However, his career would never be the same. Sound familiar, Twins fans?
    OF - Larry Hisle - 1977. He had a great season, hitting .302 with a .902 OPS. He led the league in RBIs, stole 21 bases, and hit 44% better than average, receiving MVP votes. This was the middle year of a three-year peak where he averaged 5 WAR a season. While he hit great, he was not a strong fielder, and finished the season with 5.2 WAR. He became a free agent following the season after having contract disputes with the Pohlads. He went from making around $40K to receiving a $3M contract with the Brewers where he played 5 additional seasons.
    The other positions were filled by replacement players.
    Overall, the 70s all-decade team took a step back from the 60s. They put up 50.9 WAR, and with the 52 replacement wins, finished the decade with 102.9 wins overall. Advantage: 1960s.

    Stay tuned for tomorrow, when we will look at the 1980s all-decade team.
    Comment below if you remember these 70s teams, and what you think of this exercise.
  8. Eric Blonigen
    With the All-Star break upon us, and no meaningful baseball for almost a week, I thought it could be a fun exercise to look at Twins All-Stars through the years (and decades). More than that, I was curious to see which decade has produced the best players. So, over the next several days, I will be writing a series of articles about these all-decade teams, and then looking at which team is the best.
    For methodology, I will be looking at all Twins that made an All-Star team. Then, I will attempt to construct a roster with just those players. I will be calling these all-decade teams. If an all-decade team cannot fill a full roster, I will look at just the positions they could fill, and the openings would be filled by replacement players. If a player played multiple positions, I will only use the position they made the All-Star team at. If they were an All-Star at multiple positions in different seasons, they are fair game to be used twice - once at each position. If their career spanned multiple decades, they can be on multiple all-decade teams. I will limit SP to three, RP to three, and for OF positions, I will use them interchangeably. Finally, I will will look at the bWAR for each of those players’ best All-Star season in that decade and determine that all-decade team’s win total. For the 2020s, I’ll have to get a little unconventional. Since we are only halfway through this decade and cannot come close to filling out a full roster, I’ll double their bWAR to try to get close to parity.
    By the end of this series, we will see which decade had the best win total through this completely arbitrary methodology.
    Each article will look at one decade, from the team’s move to Minnesota in the 60s through today. Which team will come out on top?
    Today, we will looking at the 1960s, with another decade being featured each day. Without further ado, let’s dig in!
    The 1960s Twins Teams
    1960 saw the Washington Senators move from Washington DC to Minnesota, changing their name to the Twins. Coming from DC, they came pre-loaded with guys like Harmon Killebrew, Jim Kaat, and Bob Allison. They also developed guys like Jimmie Hall, Tony Oliva, and Rod Carew, and traded for guys like Dean Chance and Cesar Tovar. The ‘60s Twins teams had a veritable who’s who of All-Stars, and a number of players in the Twins (and Baseball) Hall of Fame. They made it to the World Series in 1965 before losing to the Dodgers. They made it to the ALCS again in 1969 with Billy Martin as Manager. These teams were well before my time, but my dad talks all the time about these guys, and how how much he loved them as a kid.
    But how was the all-decade team? Let’s look at the roster.

    Starting Pitchers
    For starting pitchers, we have the 1963 version of Camilo Pascual, the 1962 version of Jim Kaat, and the 1967 season for Dean Chance.
    SP1 - Camilo Pascual - 1963. Pascual threw 267 innings with 14 complete games and struck out 7.2/9, which in those days was pretty good. In fact, it led the league! The curveball specialist pitched back to back shutouts three times that season, and 1963 also ended his 6-year run of having the highest collective pitching WAR in baseball. After he retired, he became a scout and signed Jose Conseco and Alex Cora.
    SP2 - Jim Kaat - 1962. Kitty Kaat threw 16 complete games and 5 shutouts in 1962, with a 3.13 ERA and was 30% better than league average. The dominant lefty went on to become the all-time Twins leader in Wins and Ks, won 16 Gold Glove awards, was a part of the ’65 team that went to the World Series, and was eventually elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2022.
    SP3 - Dean Chance - 1967. He was a horse in 1967, leading the league in starts, complete games (18), innings pitched (283), and a 2.73 ERA bolstered by a 2.56 FIP. He there a no-hitter on 8/25/67, and a rain-shortened perfect game on 8/6. Imagine that level of performance, twice in a month. Must have been magical to see.
     
    Relief Pitchers
    There were no relief pitchers selected, but of course, relief pitchers weren’t really a thing in the 60s.
     
    Lineup
    The lineup was even more impressive than the starting pitching.
    C - Earl Battey - 1963. This was Earl’s second of four All-Star appearances. He put up an .845 OPS and was 34% better than an average hitter. He took almost as many walks as strikeouts, and was solid behind the dish, winning a gold glove. He hit 26 HR as a catcher, and shockingly, that was just 4th best on the team that year. Have I mentioned the 60s had some great teams and even better players? Battey also gathered down ballot MVP votes, and eventually went on to play in the ’65 World Series-losing team.
    1B - Harmon Killebrew - 1965. It was actually sort of a down year for him, but it was still very good. He slugged .501, finished with a 145 OPS+, and took 72 walks. When I was a kid, I was always very excited to bike to a gas station and see they had Killebrew root beer for sale. Turns out he was incredible at hitting, and the Killer was the best slugger in baseball for much of his tenure.
    2B - Rod Carew - 1969. In his age-23 season, he won his first batting title, put up an .853 OPS, and received down-ballot MVP votes. Oh, and he stole home seven times. Not a misprint, just incredible. Five times, he did it in the first inning. And, he did it by mid-July. He was a key reason the Twins won the AL West title that season. Sadly, Carew began the Twins trend of suffering a debilitating injury the following season, shredding his knee in a collision at 2nd base.
    3B - Harmon Killebrew - 1961. In 1961, Hammerin’ Harmon Killebrew was incredible manning the hot corner. He finished with an OPS over 1.000, took 107 walks, launched 46 HR, and knocked in 122. He even stole a base. His WRC+ was 160.
    SS - Zoila Versailles - 1965. In his MVP-winning 1965 season, he led the league in WAR (7.2), plate appearances (728), runs (126), doubles (45), triples (12), and total bases (308). He hit to a 115 OPS+ as a slick-fielding shortstop, and he won his second Gold Glove that season as well. In the World Series, he led the team with 8 hits, including a three-run bomb. He was also the first latin-born player to win the MVP. He suffered a back injury and declined shortly after this season, but that year, he was great.
    OF - Harmon Killebrew - 1964. The 60s all-decade team benefits greatly from the incredible slugger’s positional flexibility (or moving down the defensive spectrum). He makes his third appearance on this team playing the outfield. In 1964, he took the home run crown, finished with a .924 OPS, took 93 walks, and also led the league in HBP.
    OF - Jimmie Hall -1965. He had an .810 OPS, had a 79/51 K/BB ratio, and played solid defense. As part of the ’65 World Series team, he received 7 ABs and struck out in 5 of them. He was beaned and declined after the season, turning into a role player. Yet another promising player derailed by injuries.
    OF - Tony Oliva - 1964. He led the league in hits (217), runs (109), doubles (43), batting average (.323), and total bases. He also won Rookie of the Year, and came in 4th in MVP voting. Tough to beat.
    This all-decade team accumulated 62.3 WAR. As replacement-level teams win approximately 52 games according to BBRef, the 1960s all-decade team would have come through with 114.3 wins.
    Did the 60s have the best Twins players of all time? Can another decade top 114.3 wins? Check back tomorrow to see how the 70s showed up! And, comment below to share your thoughts on this activity.

  9. Eric Blonigen
    We are currently less than three weeks away from the trade deadline. Fangraphs has the Twins with the second-best chance in the AL of making the playoffs, at 85%. With that in mind, I’m going to share what I believe to be the best strategy with a deep playoff run as the focus. To be realistic, I’m going to assume we won’t take on more than maybe $5M in additional salary. I also won’t decimate the farm system, or assume that we can swindle other teams.
    First, let’s look at the current state of the team, and likely needs.
    Rotation - we will need three playoff-caliber starters. We may or may not have them.
    Pablo is at the top. While his results haven’t been great this year, his peripherals suggest he should be doing DRAMATICALLY better, with a 3.22 xFIP. Will his results regress towards expectations? Hopefully. Even if they don’t get all the way there, he’s still a playoff starter. Joe Ryan has been our best starter so far this season, and is deserving of an All-Star nod, with the 4th best WHIP in the AL, and the 7th most strikeouts. He’s also top-15 in most other pitching categories such as wins, BAA, innings pitched, you name it. He has a history of a second-half decline, but his stuff this year is beyond nasty. Barring an epic drop-off, he’s a playoff starter as well. Bailey Ober has been solid, and has a career of strong results. However, he would likely be one of the worst #3 starters in a deep playoff run unless he can eliminate the odd blowup where he allows 6 runs. It also might be nice to use him as a piggyback in a playoff game in the event of a short start from someone else. Lineup - this is our towering strength as a team and we likely are set here - and not just for this year.
    Catcher - Ryan Jeffers is a top-3 catcher in the AL. Vasquez can’t hit a lick, but has been fine defensively and great at pitch framing. He’s a fine backup catcher and we won’t move on from his contract 1B - Carlos Santana is on pace for a 3+ WAR season, and we have many other options to spell him, from Miranda to Julien and Kirilloff should they make their way back to the majors. It would be tough to make a sizable upgrade, and wouldn’t be worth the cost for the incremental improvement. 2B - We are set here too. For now, we have Castro, Farmer, and when Lewis comes back, we have Lee. 3B - Lewis when he’s back, Miranda, Castro - we are good SS - Correa, having his second-best season ever, Lee, Castro, and Farmer in an emergency. Good here too. LF - The good version of Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach who can his off speed stuff now and who’s xWOBA says his OPS should be in the mid-.800s, and Castro when Lewis comes back. CF - Byron Buxton. He’s been pretty healthy, and pretty good. By WAR, he’s been a top-3 CF in the AL. RF - Max Kepler, and Wallner, Larnach, and Castro can all back him up if need be. This is our weakest position, and it’s still above average. The good news about all those guys but Santana is they are under team control for multiple years. This also gives us some flexibility from a prospect depth standpoint.
    Bullpen - we likely need six good relievers for a deep run. There are four I trust
    Duran - Yes, his velocity is down. Yes, he’s getting hit harder. However, he has been playing up and may be fixing his mechanical issues from earlier this season. Jax - He’s been one of our best relievers. The stuff is great and he consistently gets it done. Stewart - He’s close to returning, and has been our best reliever when healthy. Alcala - He’s been nails this season. His velocity is through the roof, and he’s gotten his walk rate under control. Staumont/Sands/Thielbar/Okert/Funderburk - These guys are fine, but will cause some agita if they are coming out of the pen in a tie game in the 5th in the ALCS. All that leaves us with two clear opportunities for upgrade - a starting pitcher, and two relievers.  However, if we signed a good enough pitcher, we could convert both Varland and Paddack to the bullpen down the stretch, and they would both slot ahead of at least everyone under Alcala. That would fix the bullpen. So, a great starting pitcher fixes everything. But who do we have to give up?
    Thinking about our farm system, I’m going to have Jenkins and Emma Rodriguez as untouchable with superstar potential. However, I’ll have most other guys available. I assume the players that most other teams would be interested are the same that we would hate to give up - Festa, Keaschall, and Zebby Matthews.
    With all this in mind, I’m looking to swing for the fences by trading for an ace that can slot in at or above the Lopez Level.
    The solution? Kevin Gausman. This makes sense for a few reasons. First, he’s been a frontline starter for the past 5 seasons. Second, he would slot in alongside Lopez, or ahead of him. Third, it allows the bullpen conversions mentioned above. Fourth, he’s under control for the next two seasons as well. That would mean that we have a playoff-caliber team for the next two seasons with a clear World Series window.
    Yes, Gausman’s owed $23M each of the next two seasons. This would likely be a problem for the Twins due to self-imposed budgetary constraints. However, there might be a way to make this work. First, the Jays reportedly want to cut salary to get below the luxury tax threshold. They have said they are willing to trade all rentals. So, they may be willing to get creative for the right deal.
    Perhaps we could trade two of Festa, Keaschall, and Matthews, plus one of Andrew Morris or Gabby Gonzalez, plus a couple rookie ball lottery tickets. That would be quite an overpay for Gausman, but maybe it would be enough for the Jays to cover at least half of his remaining contract, if not all of it. If they do, that only increases our payroll by around $5M for this season. If even that would be a problem, we could also trade Max Kepler for a prospect and recoup about the same. For next season, we would then not need to sign any free agents.
    This would cut a lot of high-end prospects out of our system, which I'm generally not a fan of. However, we have so many guys that are solid or better, and a ton of positional flexibility that we may be able to absorb the hit. On the pitching side, we would be set for the next few years as well.
    If the team could pull something like this off, we should win several more playoff series' over the next few years.
    What do you think? Do you agree with my assessment of the team? Do you think a trade like this would earn us a solid chance at the World Series over the next few years? Comment below!
  10. Eric Blonigen
    What went wrong for David Festa?
    David Festa —AKA The Slim Reaper — has had a lot of prospect helium over the past season and a half. Since being drafted in the 13th round in 2021, he has added a few MPH to his fastball, and greatly improved his secondary pitches to the point that he is now the 89th best prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com. He put up video game numbers in St Paul, setting strikeout records. He briefly walked too many guys, but seemed to solve that problem after a few starts, and his results suggested he was ready to join the Twins rotation permanently.
    However, he was optioned back to St Paul following two sub-par starts, in which he gave up 12 runs in 10 innings. He allowed 4 home runs, had a WHIP of 1.7, an ERA+ of just 39, and was worth -.5 WAR. Even his FIP doesn’t look much better, at 7.07.
    Is this a case of a talented rookie feeling some nerves, or a sign that there’s still some developmental work to do before his next callup? Was he approaching things differently than he did in his time at St Paul? Let’s take a look at some underlying data.
    First, let’s look at his stuff, beginning with his fastball. From a velocity standpoint, he was better than average, grading out in the 75th percentile. His extension is in the 93rd percentile, giving the illusion of even more velocity. His fastball spin averaged 2349 RPM, which is average. However, his heater has MUCH less movement than typical. His 4-seam drops 12” as it crosses the plate, compared to a 15” league average. That part is fine. It also approaches hitters on a very straight trajectory, moving in just 2 inches compared to a 7” average. Major league hitters can crush straight fastballs, regardless of how hard they are thrown, and his fastball results bear that out. He gave up a .385 BA and a .615 slugging on that pitch, turning every hitter he faced into Aaron Judge. Not great.

    How about his off-speed pitches? His slider and changeup both had above-average velo, and typical spin rates. Similar to his heater, he did not get the movement required to be successful at the Major-league level. His slider moved away from same-sided hitters just two inches, compared to a league-average 6 inches. His changeup dropped just 25” compared to a 32” league average. That said, his changeup is his only pitch that showed up as average-ish, with just a .318 xWOBA and a 33% whiff rate, but a .500 expected slugging percentage.

    While Festa limited free passes at a much-better-than-average rate, pounded the zone, and hit his spots at the edges of the zone, he did not show swing and miss stuff, generating just 21% whiffs. And, hitters barreled his pitches at MORE THAN DOUBLE the league average. Part of this can be attributed to location, as he left too many pitches over the heart of the plate.

     
    Despite all this, he did find success his first time through the order, allowing just a .5 WHIP through the first two innings of both starts. After that, the wheels fell off, with a 3.0 WHIP in innings 3 and 4.

    He also struggled to get the third out, regardless of inning, giving up a 3.3 WHIP with two outs. Interestingly, his two-out and second time through the order struggles were true of his time at AAA as well, which doesn’t bode well for the future.

    It’s just not possible to be successful at this level without either swing and miss stuff, or elite command and control. This story this tells is that Festa likely has some work to do to increase spin, movement, or locating his pitches. Or, perhaps he would find better results out of the bullpen where he would be less exposed, and could dial up the velocity even a bit further.
    What do you think? Is Festa destined to be a AAAA-type pitcher? Are there mechanical changes that can improve the movement of his pitches? Should he adjust his pitch mix, or his sequencing? Should he move to the bullpen? Or is all this a case of nerves? Comment below!
     
     
     
  11. Eric Blonigen
    In my last article, we looked at the bottom-5 performers by WPA at the halfway point. Today, we will look at the top performers. We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As a reminder, as with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimplify things greatly, being worth .5 WPA is roughly equivalent to a win. Read on to see if there are any surprises!
    In this group, there were two names that surprised me. Sometimes being clutch is sneaky! Let's start with the player who has increased the team's chances to win by more than any other player this season.
    Carlos Correa - SS (1.45 WPA)
    In case you were wondering, it did not surprise me that Correa is leading the team - he has been on fire for most of the season. His OPS+ is second-highest of his career, and for the past month, has been one of the strongest hitters in baseball, and he has been clutch. It’s a testament to his consistency that he has had four separate games in which he increased the team’s win probability by at least 25%. His signature moment so far happened on 5/30 against the Royals. Correa batted in the 5th with the bases loaded and the game tied at 4. Cut to a bases-clearing triple, and the bullpen saved the game for a key win against a divisional foe. Correa increased the chances for a Twins victory by 40% in that game, almost an entire win.
     
    Jhoan Duran - RP (1.19 WPA)
    This one surprised me quite a bit. As I have previously written about, Duran has been shaky this year (at least compared to his talent level and the past couple years). His velocity has been down, he hasn’t been locating his pitches in an optimal way, and he has blown saves at a higher rate than in years past. His bWAR is also negative on the year, and tied for worst on the team at -.3. However, situationally, he has still gotten it done more than it might seem. His best moment this season happened on 6/14. Duran came into a tie game in the 9th and increased the Twins’ chances to win by 45% when he pitched a scoreless 9th - and 10th - sending the As down in order to win the game.
     
    Simeon Woods Richardson - SP (1.19 WPA)
    SWR has been good, and this is backed up by his WPA. He has increased the team’s chances to win in 10/13 starts so far. His best game was on 5/6, when he threw 6 strong innings against the Mariners, giving up just a single hit and one walk, while striking out 8. The team won 3-1, and SWR increased their odds by 36%. Not bad for a rookie’s fourth start, and against one of the best teams in the AL!
     
    Willi Castro - UTIL (1.18 WPA)
    No surprises here. Castro has been playing out of his mind this season and is leading the team in bWAR at 2.9. He could be in line for his first All-star bid. Interestingly, Castro has only had one big WPA game this season, and it didn’t result in a Twins win. On 6/21, Castro batted in the 7th with the Twins down 2 runs, and hit a 3-run bomb to take the lead. Unfortunately, the bullpen immediate gave up the lead.
     
    Ryan Jeffers - C  (1.09 WPA)
    Jeffers, while slumping for the past month, has still been one of the best-hitting catchers in the league. He has had many clutch moments, including 4/12 against the Tigers, where he increased the chances of a Twins victory by a whopping 73%. He hit a homer to tie the game in the 7th, then knocked in Carlos Santana an inning later to take the lead. Later, he reached on an error when the game was re-tied, then came around to score for the lead once again. This was the Ryan Jeffers game.
    What do you think? Did any of these players surprise you? Will any of the top performers cool off? Comment below to start the discussion!
  12. Eric Blonigen
    As we have recently crossed the halfway point of the 2024 season, my next two posts will be taking a look at our most (and least) valuable players by win probability added (or subtracted). We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimplify things greatly, being worth .5 WPA is roughly equivalent to a win. Read on to see if there are any surprises!
    We will begin by looking at the five least valuable players of the first half. Nothing here surprised me based on the eye test, or looking at their WAR. Without further ado, we will start with the player who has helped the team the least so far this season. 
    Christian Vazquez - C - (-1.75 WPA) 
    Vasquez has not been good, by any measuring tool. He’s been the worst hitter by WAR, and it’s not close. In fact, his OPS+ has been historically bad. Think Drew Butera territory, then lose another 50 points of OPS and you are in the ball park. Somewhat interestingly, he hasn’t even really had any individual good games. His best single game increased the team’s chances to win by just 11%. Most of his games have been negative. To compound things, he has come up to bat in some key moments. Spoiler: he generally has not come through. And, by WPA, he has cost the team three and a half wins so far. 
     
    Steven Okert - RP (-.78 WPA)
    Okert hasn’t been great, but he also has been very un-clutch. So far this season, in limited action, he has had four bad games. The worst was on 5/6, when he decreased their chances to win by 44% - almost an entire loss on his shoulders. Okert came into the game against the Mariners with the Twins up 4-2 and the bases loaded. It began as Jay Jackson’s mess, but Okert immediately gave up a grand slam and the Twins went on to lose.
     
    Louis Varland - SP (-.76 WPA)
    It’s telling that despite Varland’s last two spot starts being solid or better, he is still very negative in WPA on the season. His first starts of April prior to his demotion were just that bad. Consider the following: in three of his four April starts, he cost the team at least a 25% likelihood to win the game. The worst was on 4/15 against the Orioles, when his WPA was -.34 due to allowing 11 hits, 2 HR, and 4 runs over 5 innings. Tough to win against a good team in that situation. Of course, he was demoted immediately following this start, and may be figuring out his form again after his stint at STP.
     
    Kyle Farmer - IF (-.66 WPA)
    Team leader? Yes. Versatile? Sure. A good hitter? Maybe not any more. Similar to Vazquez, the problem is he just hasn’t had many good games to balance the bad ones. His worst, in limited action, was on 4/13 against the Tigers. While the Twins won, it was no thanks to Farmer’s performance. He struck out with the bases loaded in the top of the 12th inning. Luckily, the rest of the team showed up to batting practice and the Twins scored 7 runs in the 12th for the win. His playing time has slumped along with his performance, and the end may be near for him.
     
    Manny Margot - OF (-.63 WPA)        
    Yes, Manny Margot has been much better for the past month. However, it will take him a couple more months at this level just to reach a neutral WPA. He was just that bad for April and May. Funnily enough, his worst game was the same as Farmer’s. He went 0-fer and left runners on base multiple times.
    Stay tuned for tomorrow, and the recap of our top-5 WPA leaders in the first half.
    What do you think? Did any of these players surprise you? Will any of the bottom performers turn it around in the second half? Comment below to start the discussion!     
  13. Eric Blonigen

    Introducing: Little Papi

    By Eric Blonigen,


    Little Papi
    Twins fans of a certain age still bear the wounds of Terry Ryan non-tendering David Ortiz prior to the 2003 season prior to his first year of arbitration. Ryan was infamous for this — saving ownership money even when he didn’t have that specific mandate. After the non-tender, Ortiz, of course, went on to become Big Papi. He led the Red Sox to multiple World Series titles. Over his career, he was a 10x All-Star, and won Silver Slugger at DH no fewer than 6 times. He’s in the Hall of Fame, and went on to accumulate over 50 bWAR.
    This article is not about David Ortiz, however. It’s about another player who was non-tendered, and this time, the Twins were the beneficiary. We are, of course, talking about Willi Castro. As you read on, you will see a direct side-by-side comparison of the two players who found themselves in similar situations, for similar reasons, two decades apart.
    To be clear, Ortiz and Castro are not similar players. One was a hulking slugger with a great eye at the plate, and the other is a toolsy, speedy utility player. As such, we won’t be looking at hitting profiles or batted ball data. What we will be looking at are some commonalities in the value they provided (and in Castro’s case, continue to provide) their respective teams.
    First, let’s look at Ortiz’ last season with the Twins, and the first two seasons after the Red Sox signed him.

    Next, here’s the same time window for Castro - his last season with the Tigers, and his first season and change with the Twins.

    Looking just at this data, a few things stand out.
    The bWAR they produced over the three year stretch is strikingly similar. Ortiz was slightly more valuable over that stretch, but it’s close. If Castro continues his production for the first half of this season, he is set to outpace Ortiz’ first All-Star season in 2004, during which he won Silver Slugger and received down ballot MVP votes. The teams’ winning percentages are also almost identical when they are playing. Again, Castro has a very slight edge over Ortiz. Castro is a year younger than Ortiz was in his second season with the Red Sox, and Castro is just hitting his prime. Castro, of course, has also been much cheaper - this season, he’s making maybe a third of what Ortiz was making, adjusted for inflation, in 2004. After unpacking all of this, it seems that Willi Castro is deserving of a new nickname - Little Papi.
    Will he have a HOF-worthy career like Big Papi, or is this the best he has to offer? Realistically, the latter is more realistic. However, it’s great to be the recipient of another team’s self-scouting error, and it helps the Twins’ changes for a deep postseason run when they can find this kind of surplus value - and in general, when they can sign a borderline All-Star for next to nothing. He has been one of the Twins’ most consistent - and valuable - players over the past year of a half, and his style of play brings a different dynamic than many of their other players. He has also brought tremendous defensive flexibility, playing every position so far this season except 1B and C.
    Should my Little Papi nickname stick? Is it a fun comparison? What do you think about the surplus value he has added with his bat, speed, and versatility? Comment below with your thoughts!
  14. Eric Blonigen
    Is Royce Lewis for real?
    If you were to survey every Twins fan around their favorite current player, Royce Lewis would likely be near the top - and for good reason. So far this season, Royce Lewis has been doing very Royce Lewis things - being a spark plug for the offense, hitting a ton of bombs, and generally doing everything right. On a nearly daily basis, he is being recognized on the TV and radio broadcasts for doing things that just aren’t done. For example, he’s been hitting HRs at a higher rate than Barry Bonds. He’s one of just a handful of hitters to hit 10 HR in their first 16 games of a season. He’s been worth 1.6 bWAR in 16 games. You can go on an on. But, is he for real? Can he keep this up?
    No. At least, probably not. Regression will come eventually. However, the drop-off may not be as big as you would think.
    Looking at his batted ball data on Baseball Savant, there are a few things that stand out. First, check out all the red. Makes sense, since he’s been crushing. However, he’s also walking at an elite level, and striking out at an elite level too. He’s barreling up in the 100th percentile, and his bat speed is great.
    Second, this isn’t a case of a young player being thrown a bunch of prove-it fastballs. Royce has been crushing pitches of EVERY type. As you can see, his expected batting average is over .300 across the board, and his actually performing the WORST against heaters. That’s unusual, and it’s a sign of his maturity at the plate, his pitch recognition, and his quick hands.

    Third, his homers have not been wall-scrapers. Of his 10 homers so far this season, 70% have been no-doubters, and the others would have been out in most ballparks.

    Fourth, looking at his year over year progress, we can see that this is a case of a young player, not yet hitting his prime, showing real improvement year over year, across the board. He’s swinging less outside the zone, he’s ambushing pitchers, and he’s optimizing his launch angle. In short, he’s got a sweet swing.

    Finally, let’s take one gratuitous look at some player comps. Yes, this is a VERY small sample size. But, the comps on this list are also the short list of MVP favorites.   

    Looking at the batted ball data, and combining in with the eye test, what do you think? Is Lewis the best player on the team? Does he have MVPs in his future? Or will he fall back down to Earth? Start the discussion below!
  15. Eric Blonigen
    Last Friday, the Twins were the last team to unveil their City Connect jerseys. You’ve probably seen them by now - at least if you are able to watch games on TV. The Ripple Effect draws inspiration from the state’s 10,000 lakes and the loon. The new look has been polarizing, to say the least, as most City Connect offerings have been. I for one am a fan, as I get some serious Fallout Vault Dweller vibes from the bright blue and yellow combination. My only suggestion would be to have white pants to contrast the bright blue. Otherwise, solid.
    This article is going to be an entirely subjective breakdown of every team’s City Connect looks. I will be dividing them into three different categories, and commenting on each choice.
    1) Cool looks, and MAYBE even an improvement over their traditional home jersey
    2) Fine, I guess, but I probably wouldn’t buy one
    3) Oof. This category indicates that either the team may not have changed much, or the I personally find this look cringey.
    To be clear, I am in no way qualified to be a fashion critic. I’m a sneakerhead and collect hats, but otherwise am not particularly fashion-forward. However, I thought this would be a fun alternative to some of the rankings national outlets have put out. So, let’s dig in!
    Cool looks, and MAYBE even an improvement over their traditional home jersey Diamondbacks

    This one is great. The “Serpientes” branding is awesome. At the same time, it’s classy, modern, old-school, and evocative of the team. The creamy gold coloring is great. Keeping the hat logo so similar to the current team logo makes sense so there’s no confusion. Overall, the team designers did a really nice job here.
    Blue Jays

    The Toronto skyline imagery is cool, and the red lettering and outlines on the jersey numbers really works. The hats are cool too
    Mariners

    Trident? Check. Callback to the old Seattle Pilots? Check. They look like Fallout Vault Dweller suits? Also check. These might be better than their traditional home jerseys.
    Brewers

    Brew Crew. Fun nickname, and it’s fun that the designers incorporated as many elements of what makes the Brewers a fun team to visit. The baseball grill on the sleeve calls back to the team being just one of three Major League ballparks that has tailgating in the main lots (along with Kauffman Stadium in KC and Dodgers Stadium in LA). The baby blue calls back to when some of the greats like Robin Yount, Rollie Fingers, and Paul Molitor wore those same baby blues.
    Angels

    Really, really solid. These feel vintage and modern at the same time. Do they innovate in a serious way? Nope. Do they stick the landing with the overall vibe? Sure do. In fact, these should maybe just be their normal home uniforms. Too bad the team isn't as good as the uniforms. Aside from that, no notes.
    Rockies

    This feels like Colorado. The Rockies silhouette, the deep forest green, and the contrast between that green and white just works. The arm patch with the black diamonds also calls out the numerous ski resorts Colorado is home to. The hat is great too. If I was a Rockies fan (I’m not one of the four, sorry…) I would totally buy one.
    Royals

    Living in KC, I feel like these capture the city pretty well. The fountain styling captures the “City of Fountains” that Kansas City is known for, and call back to the fountains at Kauffman Stadium.  And, the QT arm patches reference the fact that you can’t go more than about four blocks in the greater KC area without coming across one of their gas stations. Have you been? The buffalo chicken rollers are shockingly good for gas station food. Anyway, good jersey.
    Astros

    These are pretty neat. The Space City styling has serious NASA vibes, which makes sense.  The gridding on the sleeves is a nice touch, the the bright orange really pops on the deep blue. The orbi around the Astros A is evocative of satellites or rockets that might launch into orbit out of Kennedy. I think this look might be better than their regular home look.
    Nationals

    LOVE THESE. The cherry blossoms are so DC, it’s perfect. The grey and pink color combo is perfect, and the jersey has cool styling without being busy or overwhelming.
    Marlins

    These are pretty good. I love the baby blue accents on the bright red tops, and on the helmet. The pinstripes are a nice touch, and the spacing on the pinstripes is fun. This could be an upgrade over their traditional jerseys as well.
    2)  Fine, I guess, but I probably wouldn’t buy one
    Guardians

     
    The sides of the jerseys have tri-color banding that looks like weird suspenders, and for that reason, I’m out. Aside from that, these are pretty cool. Nice contrast from the blue tops to white pants, and the serifs on the CLE have the added touch of being home plates.
    Phillies

    The hats are great, with the liberty bell logo. The ombre jerseys are interesting, but not really my jam. It looks more like a soccer kit than a baseball jersey. It’s fine.
    Padres

    This is another one I have mixed feeling on. If this was the Miami jersey, I would be so on board, as it fits the art deco, neon and pastel combo that defines the Miami Beach area. There’s only one problem. Petco Park is 2,653 miles away from Miami. Maybe someone from San Diego can explain this one to me.
    Cubs

    This one is fine. I love the Wrigleyville branding. It’s a cool neighborhood, and is the heart of the Cubs day game experience. The thing that keeps this in the middle category is how much of a deviation this is from the traditional Cubbies stying. I do like the hat a lot though.
    Red Sox

    Ok, I’m conflicted on this one. Yes, I understand that this is meant to evoke imagery from the Boston Marathon. I’ve been to the marathon. It’s cool. It doesn’t REALLY have anything to do with baseball though. This jersey, in a vacuum, is also cool. However, it doesn’t really scream “Red Sox” and with a historic team like the Red Sox, that might be important. Also, bright yellow is a choice.
    Reds

    The C on the hat and sleeve is neat. I like the lines. The traced Cincy on the chest is ok. This is an example of a jersey I might buy, but then wear and feel self-conscious the entire time.
    Braves

    I’m going to contrast these with the Angels City Connect. While the Angels improve on their current jerseys in every way, the Braves don’t do it quite as well. These feel very vintage, with “The A” being the only modernization. The jersey front also feels a little busy, without unifying themes to tie everything together.
    3)  Oof. This category indicates that either the team may not have changed much, or the I personally find this look cringey.
    Tigers

    Ok. These incorporate their nickname of Motor City Kitties, but the tire-tread aesthetic is not particularly interesting. The colorway also doesn’t really call back to Detroit’s legacy or add interesting elements. Pass.
    Rays

    Not a fan. The neon green doesn’t quite work. I’ve been to Tampa a couple times, and this doesn’t remind me of anything I have seen there. The Rays do a lot really well. Designing sweet jerseys isn’t one of them.
    Baltimore

    The multi-colored sleeve rings are a choice. A definite choice. Would I wear these? Nope. Aside from that, the jersey looks like a throwback to old-timey baseball, which is sort of cool.
    Rangers

    There are parts of this that I like, and parts that I really don’t. The color combo of the off-white and the navy are solid. For some reason, the rest of the look feels cluttered. The numbering is a VERY different font than the lettering, and they clash horribly. Also, the font would look right at home on a Tigers jersey, which I am not a fan of either.
    Dodgers

    I dunno. Adding “Los” to the traditional Dodgers stylings is maybe the simplest way to incorporate the city’s roots. However, I could have designed this and that’s saying something.
    Giants

    I like the red and white G logo, and the golden gate bridge design on the arms is a nice touch that calls back to the city’s biggest landmark. The all-white jerseys look kind of empty though. A different color choice may have made more sense.
    White Sox

    Ugh. As a lifelong Twins fan, I really REALLY dislike anything to do with the White Sox. About the only thing they could do to annoy me more is to make their jerseys look more like the Tigers, with the weird Olde English font
    Mets

    This one looks like what would happen if I designed a Yankees jersey. The pinstripes, the gray, the old-school lettering. There’s only one problem with that - I am not qualified to design jerseys, and also, these are the METS jerseys.
    Cardinals

    Yeah, this is just sort of lazy. Living in Kansas City, I know a ton of people that are from St Louis. I’ve been to St Louis a half-dozen times. I know several Cardinals fans. Yet, I have never heard anyone refer to STL as “The Lou”. Do they? Maybe. However, this really looks like a typical Cardinals jersey that someone made a few tweaks to. And the tweaks are uninspired.
    Pirates

    The colors are very Pittsburgh-traditional. Aside from the PGH styling on the chest and hat, there’s really nothing new or interesting to this.
    Yankees

    Too cool for school, huh? No facial hair, no cool jerseys, no fun. Sounds like the Yankees.
    Athletics

    Too…cheap (?) for school? Their city hates them for threatening to leave for a decade? They don't know what city they will be calling home? I dunno. They maybe should have given the few A's fans left SOMETHING to be interested in, even if it’s just a new jersey.
     
    What do you all think? Would you move any of my decisions up or down? What do you think about the Twins City Connect look? Comment below!

  16. Eric Blonigen
    A month ago, Cody Christie wrote a great article around Jhoan Duran’s decreased velocity, and how that has impacted his pitch mix changes. A couple findings from that article were that:
    His velocity is down roughly 1.2 MPH on every pitch compared to 2023, through mid-May. He’s been throwing his heater much less, and relying on his off-speed offerings more. At that time, he had decreased his fastball usage from 45% last year, to 34.3% this year through mid-May. Well, this trend has continued, and his results have gotten worse. Duran has not found his missing velo, and his fastball usage reduction has become even more extreme. Here are his past three games:
    Last night, when pitching in back to back games, he only threw two 4-seam fastballs out of 10 pitches, and barely broke 100, at 100.1 and 100.4. The night before, Duran had a bit more gas, breaking 100 on all four fastballs (out of 15 pitches), with fastballs at 101.8, 101.1, 101.1, and 100.2. On Sunday, Duran threw fastballs four times, and failed to break 100 on two of them. What this tells us is that recently, his fastball usage is down to around 25%, and his velocity is down even more. While Cody’s article focused on velo and pitch mix, this article is going to take a deep dive into his pitch effectiveness and some pitch characteristics. To start that discussion, let’s take a look at his xwOBA throughout the season.

    When Cody wrote his article, Duran’s xwOBA was sitting at .237, on a league average of just over .300. Today, his xwOBA is sitting at .281. That’s still better than league average, but it’s not world-beating any longer. But why?
    Looking at Statcast and Baseball Savant data, so far this season, Duran has had only one effective pitch - his splinker. Throughout ’24, that is still a consistently great pitch for him. However, his fastball and his curve have both been much worse than typical for him, and rank poorly overall.

    So, what has changed since last season, aside from his velocity dip? Last year, each of his offerings were good, and his splinker was GREAT. Digging deeper, we can see that this year, his overall chase rate is down almost 4%, and his whiff rate is down 4.6%. His strikeout rate is 2.3% less than last year (but his walk rate is down slightly as well. Batters are hitting him less hard, but they are also elevating the ball more, as evidenced by his ground ball rate dropping 5.5%. Overall, his xBA is up almost 30 points year over year.

    But why? Let’s look at his fastball and curveball separately. We will start either his fastball.,
    Fastball
    This year, Duran'is fastball has lost some vertical drop compared to the average fastball, so it’s likely that hitters are perceiving the pitch as more crushable.

    Location has also been a factor for his fastball success. See his heat map for last year - a lot of pitches up, leading to a lot of swing and miss.

    This year however, his fastball is generally going much lower, and it’s resulting in a roughly .800 xOPS - not what you want to see out of one of the best pitchers in baseball.

     
    Curveball
    We can see that his curveball used to be a putaway pitch, but now isn’t.

     
    Here, we can see that his spin rate is down on his curveball, losing about 100 RPM since last year. His splinker and fastball have both lost a little spin as well, but its not drastic. We can also see that his extension is down slightly, so that likely accounts for some perceived velocity loss in addition to the actual loss.
    His pitch location also may be impacting his results. See these comparisons:

    Here we can see that last year, Duran threw a lot of curveballs that missed just low, leading to more whiffs. This year, his curves are tending to miss VERY low, which helps to explain his decrease in effectiveness. If a batter know’s it’s a ball, they won’t swing, and there’s a pretty good chance that with some of these locations, they just know.

    Overall, the story this all tells is that Duran is a great pitcher who is struggling with some mechanics, and locating his pitches where they are most effective. Even when throwing a little slower, he still ranks near the 100% percentile in velocity. His stuff will play. Here’s to hoping that he and the coaching staff can get the mechanics and the command back on track.
    What do you think? Are better days ahead for the flamethrower?
  17. Eric Blonigen
    We are now less than a month from the Rule-4 draft. National and local writers have started publishing deep-dives of mock drafts, player profiles, and general prognostication.
    This article is not that. Instead, we will be doing a deep-dive into drafts past. The Twins, like any pro baseball team, have had their share of swings and misses in the draft. As fans, we feel great about guys like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins. At the same time, we lament guys like Keoni Cavaco, Aaron Sabato, Tyler Jay, and more. Much ink has been spilled on all those guys right here on Twinsdaily. But how about the guys we drafted and DIDN’T sign? That’s what we are digging into today. I examined every draft class since the Twins moved from Washington in 1965, and looked at every player we didn’t sign. Then, I eliminated anyone who didn’t sign that accumulated less than 5 career bWAR.
    I will be breaking unsigned draft picks into a few tiers:
    What could have been? These guys could potentially have altered the franchise had they signed. Solid. These guys could have had roles on some good teams, and could have made some bad teams better. Just a guy. These players may have been fun or may have displaced someone who had no business on a Major League roster. Some had one good year, while others were role players for a long time. Notoriety. These guys may not have had a good or long career, but they went on to do something else in baseball that’s worth talking about. Spoiler: in both cases, they were involved in the Astros cheating scandal. Before we dig in, I do understand that EVERY team consistently attempts to sign HS players who are planning on going to College. Every team’s fans could build a list just like this one. However, what is baseball if not a chance to think about what could be? As a lifelong Twins fan, sometimes that dreaming is what keeps the fandom palatable. Read on for the deep dive!
    Tier One - What could have been? These guys could have done a lot for the team, potentially altering the shape of the franchise, or leading to different outcomes some years.
    George Springer - He was originally drafted by the Twins out of high school in the 48th round of the 2008 draft. Supposedly, Springer strongly considered signing with the Twins, but felt he wasn’t ready for pro baseball yet. He went to college, and was drafted by Houston in the 1st round of the 2011 draft. He finished 8th for AL ROY in 2014. He has won a Silver Slugger twice, in 2017 and 2019. He has received MVP votes in 2017, 2019, and 2020. Across his career, he has been 25% above league average as a hitter, has been worth 36.4 bWAR, and has a good shot to at least make it to the theoretical “Hall of Very Good”. His impact bat would have been felt in some of the late Terry Ryan years, and it would have made the Bomba Squad even better. He would have been a clear upgrade over guys like Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Robbie Grossman.
    J.D. Martinez - The Twins drafted Martinez in the 36th round of the 2006 draft. He didn’t sign, and the Astros drafted and signed him in 2009. Martinez has been worth 30.7 bWAR so far in his career even though he has been limited to COF and DH. He won the 2018 WS with the Red Sox. He has been a 3x Silver Slugger, in 2015 and 2018 (at two different positions). He has received MVP votes in three different seasons - 2015, 2018, 2019. He has also been a 6x All-star. Over his career, he has had an OPS+ of 132. Obviously, if the Twins would have signed (and kept) him, the opportunity cost would likely have been NOT signing other marquee players such as Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, or Carlos Correa. However, it’s fun to think about him manning LF or DH over the past several seasons.
    J.J. Putz - The Twins drafted Putz in the 17th round of the 1998 draft. He eventually signed with Seattle in the 6th round of the 1999 draft. As a reliever, I hesitate to put him in this group. However, he was quite good for the majority of his career, and would have given a late-inning boost to a lot of Twins teams. He was an All-star in 2013, and received down-ballot MVP votes. He finished his career with a 138 ERA+, and was worth 13.1 bWAR as a relief pitcher. He would have looked really good in a Twins uniform alongside all-time great closers Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins, and he would have immediately supplanted guys like Jon Rauch and Matt Capps as closer, and would have eliminated the impact of the trades the Twins made to get them. He also could have helped some playoff Twins teams advance (or at least not get swept out).
    Steve Garvey - He was drafted by the Twins in 1966, in the 3rd round. Two years later, the Dodgers drafted him in the 1st round and he signed. He played 19 seasons, 14 with the Dodgers, then 5 with the Padres. Over his career, he was a 10x All-star, a 4x Gold Glove winner, and 1974 MVP. He also received down ballot MVP votes 8 additional times, and won a World Series with the ’81 Dodgers. He also had 6 seasons with 200 or more hits, finishing his career with 2599.His peak was from 1974-1980. Who played the corner infield for the Twins? Guys like Ron Jackson and Mike Cubbage. I wasn’t alive for those teams, but it seems like a pretty clear upgrade.
    Bret Boone - Remember Bret Boone? The Twins did eventually sign him in 2005, where he had 58 sub-replacement PAs and then was released and subsequently retired. But before that? He was very good for a very long time, accumulating 22.8 bWAR. The Twins drafted him way back in 1987, in the 28th round. Three years later, Seattle drafted him in the 5th and signed him. Bret was a 3x All-star, in 1998, 2001, and 2003. He also won Gold Glove 4 times, in 1998, 2001, 2002, and 2003 and Silver Slugger in 2001 and 2003. He received down ballot MPV votes in 1994, 2001, and 2003. Who manned second base during his peak? Chuck Knoblach for the first handful of years, who was great. After he was traded to NY, Luis Rivas took over and Boone would have been a clear upgrade.
    Jason Varitek - Going back to 1993, the Twins drafted Varitek in the 1st round. A Boras client, he was advised to go back to college for his senior year in order to find a more favorable situation. Seattle drafted and signed him the following year, and he (eventually) went on to help the Red Sox break the curse of the Bambino. Over the course of his catching career, he was a 3x All-star, twice won the World Series, won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and was one of only four team captains in Red Sox history. He was worth 24 bWAR. In hindsight, even when thinking about a player of Varitek’s caliber, his catching career overlapped guys like Terry Steinbach, A.J. Pierzynski, and Joe Mauer. Somewhat strangely, his value very closely matched theirs year by year.
     
    Tier Two - Solid. These guys were regulars, and would have been better options than some the Twins were fielding on a nightly basis.
    Tim Belcher - Drafted by the Twins 1st overall in 1983, he failed to sign. Oof. He signed, again in the 1st round, a year later by the Yankees. The SP won a World Series with the ’88 Dodgers, and accumulated 26 bWAR, and would have beat out other middling pitchers like Mark Guthrie, Joe Niekro, Pat Mahomes, Freddie Tolivar, Carlos Pulido, and (starter) Eddie Guardado. He was involved in multiple altercations - once with a cameraman, once with Chan-Ho Park. He went on to become a special assistant to the Cleveland front office
    Del Unser - The Twins 2nd round pick in 1965, he signed a year later with the (new) Washington Senators and went on to win a World Series with the Phillies in 1980. He accumulated 16.7 bWAR. At CF and 1B, he scattered three good seasons in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s, but was otherwise forgettable. He would likely have lost his starting job halfway through his career.
    Kolten Wong - Drafted by the Twins in the 16th round in 2008, he signed after college, going in the first round to STL. He finished third in the 2014 AL ROY voting. Wong has been a 2x Gold Glove winner. The 2nd baseman has been worth 22 bWAR so far, and would have been a valuable player, but would have interfered with some combo of Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, and Eduardo Escobar in his path to playing time.
    Aaron Sele - Sele was drafted in ’88 in the 37th round, signing with the Red Sox after being drafted in the 1st round in ’91. He finished 3rd in AL RoY balloting in 1993, was a 2x AS in 1998 and 2000, and finished 5th for the AL Cy Young in 1999. Across a 15 year career, he was an exactly league average pitcher, although he was solidly above average for the first half of his career. He accumulated 20.1 bWAR and would have beaten out guys like Frankie Rodriguez, Mike Morgan, Mike Lincoln, and Sean Bergman. Remember any of them? Me neither. They were largely replacement level or worse as members of the Twins rotation.
    Tyler Anderson - The Twins drafted Anderson in 2008 in the 50th round. Three years later, Colorado took him in the 1st. He made the 2022 All-star team with the Dodgers. He has amassed 15.3 bWAR so far, and pitched to a 106 ERA+. While not a frontline arm, Anderson would have prevented some innings from such luminaries as Matt Shoemaker.
    Rick Burleson - He was drafted in the 8th round of the summer draft in 1970, then taken months later in the supplemental winter draft in the 1st round by Boston. As a shortstop, he finished 4th in the 1974 ROY balloting, received MVP votes in 4 different seasons, was a 4x All-star, and won the Silver Slugger in 1981. He also won a gold glove in 1979 at SS. In his career, he was worth 22.9 bWAR. He would have been clearly better than Ron Washington and Danny Thompson, but his career also intersected with Roy Smalley and Greg Gagne, so had he signed with the Twins, it might have been complicated, or he may have needed to shift positions.
    Al Hrabosky - Drafted by the Twins in 1967 in the 11th round, and signing two years later in the 1st round with the Cardinals. Al went by the moniker “The Mad Hungarian” due to his eccentric pitching routines designed to intimidate batters. As a relief pitcher, Al received both down-ballot Cy Young and MVP votes in 1974 and 1975, during the latter of which he was the NL Saves leader. During his peak, the Twins fielded largely middling teams, so he would not have moved the needle. However, he would have added some fun. He has been a color commentator for the Cardinals since 1985.
     
    Tier Three - Just guys. These guys typically had long major-league careers, but they weren’t necessarily better than other in house options. Might they have changed some outcomes? Sure.
    Travis Lee - He was the 2nd overall pick of the ’96 draft, but failed to sign a contract within 15 days so he became a free agent. Arizona signed him to a 4/$10M deal. He was worth 7.3 bWAR.
    Steve Pearce - Drafted in the 45th round of the 2003 draft, he signed with Boston in the 10th a year later. He had one All-Star caliber season in 2014, but was not an All-star that year. In 2018, he won a WS with Boston, and was the WS MVP. Overall, he was just a guy, worth 9.8 bWAR. His competition throughout his peak would have been guys like Mauer, Escobar, Rosario, and Dozier, all of whom were better.
    Adam Lind - Drafted by the Twins in 2002 and signed by the Blue Jays in 2004, he was the 2009 Silver Slugger and Edgar Martinez award winner. He was worth 12.7 bWAR
    Jerry Reed - This one is a rare case of a player failing to sign out of high school, then being drafted LOWER after college, dropping from the 11th round in 1973, to signing in the 22nd with the Phillies in 1977. He pitched in 238 major-league games, mostly in relief, and retired worth 5 bWAR.
    Pete Falcone - He was a back-of-the-rotation SP who finished his career with a 91 ERA+, and retired worth 8.9 bWAR. Drafted by the Twins in 1972 and signed a year later by the Giants.
    Yonder Alonso - Drafted in the 16th round in 2005, he went 7th overall in 2008 to the Reds. He finished 6th in the 2012 AL ROY voting. He was a 2017 AS with Oakland. He has hit as a 103 OPS+ player. Signing him wouldn’t have worked out, as he would have blocked Joe Mauer's transition to 1B, and Mauer was clearly better. He has been worth 8.1 bWAR.
    Paul Maholm - Just a guy. He was a back-of-the-rotation SP who finished his career with a 95 ERA+, accumulating11.9 bWAR. After failing to sign in the 17th round in 2000, Pittsburgh signed him in 2003 in the 1st round
    Brian Anderson - Drafted in the 20th round in 2011, and signed by Miami in the 3rd in 2014. He finished 4th in the 2018 AL ROY balloting He’s been a roughly league-average hitter, with a 101 OPS+ across his career so far, although he’s trending downwards. He has been worth 9.8 bWAR so far. If the Twins had signed him, it may have made the Josh Donaldson signing unnecessary, and he also could have filled Gio Urshela’s shoes.
    Eric Show - Drafted by the Twins in 1974, he signed four years later by the Padres. While Eric holds the Padres’ record for most career wins, with 100, his career was up and down, with a slightly-below-average 99 ERA+, and was worth 15.6 bWAR. He was a solid #2 starter for a while, but went through some personal problems, and he died of a drug overdose at 37.
    Gary Mathews Jr - Drafted in the 38th round in 1992, he signed in 1993 with the Padres after being drafted in the 13th round. He played 12 years in the majors, with below-average offense, but solid defense. He accumulated 14.2 bWAR, and was implicated in the Mitchell Report on steroid use in baseball. I guess if the Twins had signed him, he might have supplanted Terry Tiffee at the end of his career, but otherwise, was largely worse than the options the Twins had available to them.
    Brian Lawrence - The Twins drafted him in 1994, in the 39th round. In 1998, the Padres signed him in the 17th round. He was a starting pitcher, with a 93 OPS+ over his career. Whatever.
    Chase Anderson - The Twins drafted and failed to sign him TWICE, in 2006 and 2007. He had one good season in 2017, but otherwise, has generally been a back of the rotation arm with middling stuff. To date, he has accumulated 8.1 bWAR, and is still active. He might have prevented some desperation starts for guys like Matt Shoemaker, Chris Archer, JA Happ, Randy Dobnak, et al., but would not have moved the needle for us.
    Jason Vargas - Miami signed him in 2004 after the Twins failed to a year earlier. He finished his career with a 93 OPS+. He pitched for a long time, but has been a back of the rotation guy most of the time. He might have prevented some starts for the same guys as Chase Anderson.
     
    Tier Four - Notorious - these guys weren’t good players, but they are forever imprinted on baseball’s collective consciousness.
    Alex Cora - Drafted by the Twins in the 1993 12th round and signed by the Dodgers in the 3rd of the 1996 draft, Alex was a marginal player as a catcher, worth 7 bWAR over his career. However, his career has transcended beyond just playing, and he has found success at multiple levels. He won the 2007 World Series with Boston as a player, and, won the 2017 World Series with Houston as bench coach, and ALSO won the 2018 World Series as the Manager of the Red Sox. As a Manager, he has a .540 winning percentage. He was involved in the 2019 trashcan scandal and was banned for a year.
    A.J. Hinch - The Twins drafted him in 2003, and he signed a year later with Oakland. Both drafts, he was selected in the third round. Played for four teams across part of 7 years. While he was a replacement-level player across his career, he did achieve a place in baseball notoriety. He was the Manager for the 2019 Astros World Series-losing team who was later fired for his role in the trash can cheating scandal. He also led the 2017 Astros to a World Series victory, but I’ll put an asterisk on that.
     
    So, what do you think? Any guys you are sad we couldn’t sign? Comment below!
  18. Eric Blonigen
    Every sports fan is likely to believe the umps are biased against their team, but there have been several games lately that make it seem like the fates are working against the Twins. Let's look at some examples.
    In last night's game against the Pirates, assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. As it turns out, he was right to be frustrated, as HP ump Paul Clemons called a pitch to Correa a strike when it was a ball. Later in the inning, with bases loaded, a ball to Kepler was called a strike, impacting the shape of the plate appearance, the inning, and the game, as the Twins were unable to score a run. After the game, the folks at umpirescorecards.com released their scorecard, and Pittsburgh was awarded 1.17 runs in their favor.

    During the Yankees series, there were several questionable calls and most seemed to go against the Twins. That seems to be a trend on the season. Let's take a deeper dive into the data
    So far this season, if all pitches had been called correctly, the Twins should have scored an additional 5.22 runs. Their main divisional opponent, the Guardians, should have scored 17.82 FEWER runs than they have. Overall, that 23 run differential means that the two teams should be much closer in the standings than they are. However, not all runs are created equal. So, I looked at the ump scorecards for each game that was decided by two of fewer runs to understand exactly what impact the umpires have had on the two teams results.
    For starters, there have been two head-to-head games that went Cleveland's favor that actually should have been Twins victories. Here are the scorecards for the 4/6 and 5/17 games.  
    There have been other examples of Twins losses that the outcome should have been wins, or at least may have ended differently. On 4/14 against the Tigers, the final score was 3-4 Tigers, but they scored 1.32 additional runs due to ball and strike calls.
     
    On 4/19, also against the Tigers, the 4-5 loss was in part decided by the extra .88 runs awarded to the Tigers. 

    That's four losses directly attributed to incorrect ball and strike calls.
    There was also a single example of the Twins recording a win that they may not have earned. On 4/23, against the White Sox, the 6-5 score was aided by an extra run in our favor.

    Net-net, this likely means we should have at least three more wins than we actually do. 
    Earlier, I mentioned Cleveland's 17.82 surplus runs. According to umpirescorecards.com, they lead all of baseball in favorable calls. How has this impacted their win total? In addition to the two-game swing based on the head-to-head matchups discussed earlier, they have had several one-run victories where they scored a half-run due to ball and strike calls. While these may still have ended in Cleveland wins, the outcome may have been different on 4/18, 5/6, 6/1, and 6/7.

    Perhaps more importantly for Cleveland, they have only had a single game this season that calls went against them in a meaningful way - 4/13 against the Yankees. With a final score of 3-2 Yankees, the evil empire was granted an extra .55 runs.
    .
    Assuming that Cleveland would have won half those games anyway, it's fair to think their actual win total should be four wins less than reality.
    What's the impact of all this? Well, entering play on 6/8/24, Cleveland is 40-22 and the Twins are 33-30. Based on expected win totals were balls and strikes called accurately and consistently, the ACTUAL win/loss records should be Cleveland at 36-26, and the Twins at...36-27. That reality would feel much different for fans than the one we are living. The good news is we are well-positioned the rest of the way, with one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball. Cleveland has one of the hardest. With some fair umpires, we just might be able to run away with the division.
    Thoughts?
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