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Possumlad

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Everything posted by Possumlad

  1. Possumlad
    Your second assertion is flat-out false. Buxton would net a significant return if the Twins decided to trade him (they won't).
  2. Possumlad
    Well I assume he'll focus on whichever looks most promising early in his MiLB career (assuming he does both out of the gates). Given that, 50% on each seems about right given only the information we have today. Of course if he fails at one the probability that he later suceeds at it falls a bunch, but I'm not sure how we'd know that today.
  3. Possumlad
    1) McKay 2) Gore 3) Greene 4) Lewis 5) Wright I don't understand the general anti-McKay leanings around here. While he's unlikely to both hit & pitch for long, the fact that he can do both greatly increases the chance the he hits on one of the two. Simple probability would dictate that if he has a 50% chance to succeed as a pitcher, and 50% chance to succeed as a hitter (both of which seem reasonable), then he has a 75% chance to hit on one of the two. Given that there is no clear consensus generational talent in this draft, why not go w/ the higher probability play? I suppose you could argue that Greene's as likely to hit on one of the two, but I don't see that from a HS Right-hander w/ no secondary pitches.
  4. Possumlad
    Callis is pretty connected, so I have no reason not to trust his sources/instincts. For some reason my gut also says it's not Wright (I think he's probably 4th or 5th on the list). I also wouldn't be surprised if they surprise with a non-Green HS player @ #1. My odds are something like: 60% McKay, 20% Greene, 10% Gore, 5% Wright, 5% Lewis
  5. Possumlad
    This is eye-ball test only - but Buxton also appears to accelerate slowly (relative to his overall speed). He's blazing fast at top speed, but his long strides seem to take a few steps to get going. Anyone else notice this? Seems to hurt most on SBs. I could be flat-out wrong here.
  6. Possumlad
    Your Buxton prediction is bold; he's really not a great base-stealer at this point.
  7. Possumlad
    I'm willing to bet Hamilton & Buxton would be neck and neck in a 100 yard dash. Buxton's brutal jumps are frustrating though; he appears to actually be a a pretty poor base stealer at this point, which is crazy given his speed.
  8. Possumlad
    Dozier is a significantly better than average MLB 2nd baseman. Baseball is a game of streaks - any small sample size you choose (1/2 a season, for instance) will undoubtedly be better or worse than any other you choose, but the body of work is terrific this year. For qualified 2B this year, he's 7th in OPS & 5th in WAR. While any stat's imperfect, you don't trade away one of the few above-average major leaguers on the team--while he's young--in hopes that we someday find another one.
  9. Possumlad
    Agreed on all points. To be clear, I'm more than fine with keeping Meyer down if the purpose is to "improve fastball command and the develop a third a pitch." My only issue is the Twins continued, bizarre insistence on general "consistency." If he needs to improve fastball command and work on a third pitch, just say that.
  10. Possumlad
    Wanting "more consistency" from our minor-league starters is an infuriating, nonsensical double-standard. The only of our major-leaugers who've been "consistent" have been "consistently bad." (Phil Hughes has been the most consistently good, but even he has had a recent run of mediocre to poor outings, until yesterday). Even great pitchers have ups & downs, that's simply the nature of of the job. Of course consistency is great if you can get it, but it needn't be a pre-requisite if the overall body of work is very strong. I remember someone around here doing a piece earlier this year regarding how few major-league pitchers (even the best of the best) are consistent over long stretches. The only caveat here is that we don't know exactly the type of consistency that Antony is talking about. If he's talking about consistently in results, then my points above stand. If he means that Meyer is having trouble using a consistent motion, arm angle, or some other mechanical issue, then I suppose it could be justified. My sense, however, is that they're simply talking about results.
  11. Possumlad
    Per Phil Miller tweet about 2 minutes ago. Great news if you ask me - Pino deserves a shot.
  12. Possumlad
    Hey all - heard reference multiple times to Meyer's ~80 pitch limit. Do why know why he's on a limit? If I remember correctly, hasn't it been almost 3 years since his last major surgery? Is it simply a matter of keeping him fresh for a possible mid/late season call-up? Or does he have fatigue issues/something more serious?
  13. Possumlad
    Anyone know why Meyer is on the 80 pitch limit? Hasn't it been ~3 years since a major surgery? We've been referencing the limit, but so far no explanation of why..
  14. Possumlad
    Does he run too fast for a stopwatch or jump too high for a tape measure?
  15. Possumlad
    I will say: depending on whether the rule-book allows it, I can almost imagine Gardy instructing one of his scrappy table-setters to actually stop at 2nd base to "keep the pressure on" if one of them accidentally hit a HR. From there they could even try to steal 3rd, which would really turn up the heat. Then imagine if they eventually scored!
  16. Possumlad
    Han - it does not take a Saber to debunk your hypothesis. A home-run is by definition better than a double every single time.
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