Patzky

Minnesota Twins:
With a new coaching staff Trevor Larnach expressed what he wanted and asked to play Left Field In a quote he said “My whole life I’ve played the outfield. I’ve never felt that I’m just a DH only, but the manager’s going to run his team how he runs his team,” “I’m just going to give him my two cents and my truth, and if he follows suit with that, then great. But I’m going to go down telling him, ‘Look, I’m not just a DH only.’ ” The coaching staff including manager Derek Shelton went through on this request and Yesterday against Seattle marked his 18th career game in Left Field and he's only played DH one time this season after being a primary DH last year too.
 
He's been making the most of it to after his great catch in Left Field Tuesday he has a .990 fielding percentage over 18 games in Left Field with  a pretty decent war at -0.7 with a 0.7 FWAR and a 0.4 BWAR and his offence has been pretty good as well with him slashing .258/.410/.403 and so far 132 WRC+. His Success can be contributed to a new staff along with Gold glove winning Center Fielder Grady Sizemore. Although that was a great play he always has a strong mentality he said before today's game.  “My whole thing is everything happens so fast and then it’s over, and now it’s 11 o’clock and we have a game in an hour,” he said before Wednesday’s day game. “Before you know it, it’s the next game, the next opportunity. I try to be as humble as I can and just literally approach it like ‘That was cool, that was fun, but it’s over. Here’s the next thing. ”
Trevor Larnach has always been a great piece for the Minnesota Twins and a all around great player for this season and hopefully years to come.!
 
 

The Twins have not done much, for good or for bad, to alter their OF/DH depth.  Yes Twins signed Josh Bell. Another reclamation project who could be decent. Actually not a bad move given our situation and history, but not a game changer. Yes Twins signed Victor Caratini, again maybe another slight upgrade at back up C and possible 1B ABs, but again no game changer.
The Twins still have redundancy issues and need to clear space at some time this year for a potential Tsunami of young OF. Emmanual Rodriguez (bats lefty) could be ready this year (unless he once again misses chunks of time with injuries). I think the best move is to trade his potential for pitching, but let's assume the Twins do not feel the same way. Obviously Walker Jenkins (bats lefty)is a freight train coming, will it be 2026? Gabriel Gonzalez (bats righty)could also be a player in 2026. He has only had 1 bad year in the minors in 2024 where he had some injury issues, after a "get right" year in 2025 he is poised for more.
Any single one of them could get quality ABs in the Twins OF this year, so who is blocking them?
1) Byron Buxton. He is going nowhere. The only place he is going is to a corner OF spot in the next year or two.
2) Matt Wallner. as of now he is not going anywhere. He will flameout here before the Twins move him. He still has a lot of those "P" words. Power and Potential. Absolute worst case he stays in a platoon situation with???  (Gabriel Gonzalez anyone???)
3) Trevor Larnach.  very similar (I.E. redundant) to Wallner, but 1 year older, $3.5M more expensive, less strikeouts and higher avg. but less power and significantly wekaer arm in the OF.
Josh Bell removes some DH ABs which pushes Larnach back to more OF ABs.
It is clear the person to move is Larnach. He is still decent to good, still has some power, and still relatively cheap (for most clubs). SO... where does he go?
The Twins will obviousl ywait for Belli, and any other OF to sign as a FA before engaging in talks with teams who came up empty, But lets take a look at potential trade partners by reverse engineering a trade.
1) What ballpark is the best fit? What ballpark give sup the most LH HR?
2) What Teams have the best positonal fit?
3) What teams have the best prospect fit?
 
#1 ballpark fit:
4 that stand out are   Cinci, Orioles, Yankees, As (with their temp stadium until the Vegas stadium opens). Honorable Mention Red Sox.
We do not need too much discussion here, this is pure data. these are the stadiums giving up the most HR to LH hitters.
 
#2 Positional Fit: What teams have a need to fill what Larnach can plug?
CINCINATTI: Cinci was 21st in HR last year while their ballpark giving up the most LH HR in the game. the only addition is JJ Bleday. I cannot see him being the answer. There is a positional fit here with weak OF/DH options overall. and a right handed heavy lineup.   GOOD FIT
YANKEES: with Stanton/Judge/Rice as potential DHs they are all either better or cheaper for that spot, in the OF there is Judge, Grisham, Dominguez in the OF with Gallo in the wings. Unless they give up Gallo or Stanton to get Larnach (which they will not move Gallo for Larnach, and Twins wont take Stanton's money...but they should)I do nto see a big need here. I do not even see a huge need for Belli.  BAD POSITIONAL FIT
ORIOLES: With Alonso, Basallo, and Mayo they have DH (and 1B) covered, unless Trevor changes his name to Larnacho there is no fit at DH. With Cowser, Ward, and O'neill in OF I do not see LArnach as a significant upgrade there. Add in OF prospects Beavers and Bradfield and I so not see a fit here.  BAD POSITIONAL FIT
As (or whatever they are/will be called:  1B & Dh are locked down with Kurtz & Rooker (unless As want to move Rookers salary.. still a couple years away from Vegas and Rooker is already 31).  Soderstrom and Bulter are presumable locks and future pieces in OF, however Larnach would be an upgrade over current RF starter Colby Thomas. With few significant OF prospects on the verge. DECENT POSITIONAL FIT
Red Sox: as a flier including the Sox because of Fenway.  There OF is STACKED!!! but could some ABs at DH: BELOW AVG POSITIONAL FIT
 
PROSPECT FIT:
YANKEES: Lets make this quick. Larnach does not improve them. NOTHING TO SEE HERE MOVE ALONG
ORIOLES: See Yankees. NOTHING TO SEE HERE MOVE ALONG
RED SOX: Sox could use a DH, and some 1B reps if Casas is not healthy, if Casas is healthy then Larnach is a redundant yet less potential piece with Casas. Would want to trade for pitching, but in a deal here I think both sides would do a Larnach for Miguel Bleis deal. Bleis star has fallen significantly, yet he is the type of player Twins love to bring in. one with tons of past potential hoping to catch lightening in a bottle.  DOUBTFUL DEAL
CINCINATTI: Reds/Twins have history with trades, and I would say deals that helped both clubs, is there enough "there there" to do another? Would Cinci trade back CES? Would they send Petty back? Petty hasnt developed as a #1 pick would typically, but still young, CES has the dangerous potential but injury history, either of them would come with cost savings of at least $3.5M
As:  The As are an absolute wild card. What are they doing? are they building a core? looking to the future in Vegas? either way they have the potential to compete now, which means they most likely wouldn't move Rooker. But they are also a small market team that was actually MANDATED by the league to spend a minimum. Which is why they signed Severino. If they go cost conscious route, Do they think Rooker's contract will age poorly? and Larnach with the savings will be a good move? Would they want to move off of Severino's $25M this year and $22M PO next? and if so would it be worth it for the Twins to spend that money? Severino's splits away from teh joke minor league ballpark the As played in were actually quite good. I could also see a lottery ticket prospect like 17 year old Darwing Ozuna as a flier if our own prospects seem ready to take over this year.
 
OVERALL:  I still believe Larnach will get moved. I see the A's as a serious team to watch, Larnach fits a need in a cost conscious market with a positional need that is actually in a contention window. I do not think the A's are incompetent enough to say they are moving salary because of finances after surprising 2025 results and new found optimism, I mean what competent organization would do that? So would a Rooker or Severino be gettable? I doubt it but It take it. I see LArnach to A's for a prospect or two. and if going prospect hunting by moving a redundant piece I say go the lottery ticket route.
Backup prediction is a deal with Cinci, they could use a bat at a decent price. Twins/Reds have a history, has the bloom come off CES in Cinci? I'd take him back!!!

Well, this season's over except for the crying (like after last night), so a young(ish) man's thoughts turn to next season. What should that Opening Day roster look like? Here's my take. Couple of rules - you have to use guys we now have or, if you put in a trade or FA placeholder you have to identify who will be traded and you have to assume that the FA will be $8m a year or less. No signing Pete Alonso or William Contreras to fill the 1B or C hole. That's just a fantasy. Also, take out the idea that guys will be in AAA for a few weeks to suppress service time for this exercise or, if you think that's likely, your roster should be as of May 15 to take that out. 
My philosophy is to push young players quickly now while we're in a rebuild (and that's what this is). I completely reject the idea of signing guys like Harrison Bader, Jesse Winker, or Kiner-Falefa to fill holes to raise our floor so we're mediocre rather than bad. This team isn't a contender looking to patch a few holes; this is a speeded up rebuild. Now is the time to push the chips we have in and see what we got. For example, I love the idea of Walter Jenkins starting next year in LF. Let's see if he's ready in ST and if he shows well, which I think he will, play him now. My thought of the "push ahead to build quickly 2026 roster":
OF - Buxton, Jenkins, Wallner, Martin, Fedko/Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Outman - I think it will be Outman to have the true backup CF but I don't think he lasts long. I'd give Fedko the first shot, then Rodriguez (if he's ever healthy), then Gonzalez. 
IF - Keaschall (1B), Lee (SS), Lewis (3B), K Culpepper (2B), Clemens (1B/2B/OF), Eeles/Holland (UTL). Same deal with Culpepper, if he shows in ST, he's the starting 2B with Eeles, Clemens, Martin, or Holland as plan B. Keaschall fills the 1B hole; he's stretched at 2B and is a bat first guy. 
C - Jeffers, Vasquez (yup, the team ERA since he got hurt shows his value) or vet glove first FA (say Austin Hedges, not Danny Jansen). This is the one area where I value glove and handling the staff/calling the game over bat because of the pitching staff changes. We also don't really have anyone else ready other than maaaybe Noah Cardenas and the FA list is either really expensive or really bad. 
SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Bradley. Zebby and Taj get the first crack with the AAA guys listed below up next. Too much talent there to give up or move either of them to the bullpen yet. Both have #2/3 starter potential and Zebby could be a #1 in time. 
RP - Topa, Sands, Hatch, Funderburk, Festa, SWR, Coulombe, Ohl/Lawyerson/FA/RP acquired by trading Larnach. Festa and Topa start as co-closers, Festa is closer by mid-season. On the FA front, I would definitely sign Coulombe and would shoot for our old friends Tyler Rogers and Zack Littel. I would also be talking to Jacob Junis and Kyle Finnegan. Devin Williams might be an interesting reclamation project after pitching great for Milwaukee and flaming our in New York if we can get him for $5-8M a year on a 1 year deal.  
Gone (or in AAA as Depth) - Larnach, Julien, Tonkin, Kriske, Cabrera, Gaspar, and Fitzgerald; Outman unless he hits or maybe right away if Emma comes up. 
AAA rotation - Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Klein, CJ Culpepper, Morris, Raya. These guys plus Adams, Ohl, and Lewis are the AAA bullpen depth as well; Mike Peredes and Cade Bragg move up to AAA and could be callup candidates depending on how they do. No more throwing guys like Genesis Cabrera, Erasmo Ramirez, or Darren McCaughen into the bullpen.    
This team is more athletic, faster, but inexperienced and the bullpen is a question mark. Rotation is a real strength without injury and has real depth. On offense, run wild like they are now. Buxton and Keaschall should have 20+ stolen bases, Lee, Lewis, Martin, Wallner, Jenkins, and Culpepper should have at least 10. We're going to need to manufacture runs and now you have the pieces to do that. Help the bullpen and starters with a number 2 catcher like Vasquez or Hedges; Jeffers is the DH when he doesn't catch. Put Culpeper at 2B because Lee has come alive since becoming the starting SS. Really try hard to trade Larnach (plus prospect(s) if necessary) for an established average or better reliever or sign one as a FA. Hatch and SWR are 2 plus innings at a time guys. They cover the 4 or 5 inning starts and start on short notice when necessary. No more inning at a time in the middle innings. Bring back Coulombe and/or Taylor Rogers as the second/third LH. Topa, Sands, Festa, Funderburk, Coulombe, and the FA handle the late innings - bring your antacids. 
This team could win 85-90 games; it could win 70-75 games. Wide variation but more fun to watch and better positioned to get better as the year goes on. What do you think?

Despite the Atlanta Braves' struggling lineup, which ranks in the bottom half of every offensive category this season, the Minnesota Twins were unexpectedly swept in their series. Chris Paddack showed flashes of what the Twins were expecting out of him. He went 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB. He didn't factor into the win on Friday as the Twins lost 6-4. Despite his 2 clunker starts, Paddack has bounced back nicely with 10 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 11 K, 3 BB. Despite possessing a four-pitch arsenal, Paddack has primarily relied on his fastball and changeup over these two starts.
His fastball and changeup usage were 81% in these two games against the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves. Paddack has had a good change of speeds with his fastball topping out around 95-96 MPH and his changeup at 84 MPH. These two pitches are his primary put-away pitches. Paddack has lowered his ERA to 7.27. He will look for another start Thursday against the White Sox at Target Field.
Saturday's game was a bullpen game with Justin Topa starting. Topa would go one inning, giving up 3 H and 1 ER in one inning. Simeon Woods Richardson struggled to contain the Braves' offense, surrendering seven hits and three runs over 4.1 innings. The bright spot was that Byron Buxton had three hits and his team-leading fifth stolen base. Twins' bats would go silent after the sixth inning as the Braves' bullpen sent them down in order in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. Twins lose 4-3.
Joe Ryan started Sunday, and the Braves continued where they left off on Saturday, putting together eight hits and 6 runs off Ryan. Those runs were more than enough to beat the Twins 6-2. Byron Buxton stayed hot, going 2-5 with a double and a solo homerun. He finished up the three-game trip vs Atlanta going 5-13 with 5 H, 3 XBH, 2 R, 2 RBIs, and a stolen base. The fresh call-up Luke Keaschall had a hit in every game while also collecting a double in all three games. 
The Twins are now 7-15 on the season and are coming close to falling into last place, where the White Sox are 1.5 games behind the Twins in the American League Central Division. They have already experienced four three-game losing streaks in 22 games. Coming into Sunday's game, the Twins were ranked 27th in BA (.214), 25th in runs (73), and 27th in OPS (.625). and tied for 24th in run differential (-20). The Twins' pitching, all in all, ranks in the middle of the pack for most standard categories. However, they're one save ranks 29th in the league, ahead of the Chicago White Sox, who have yet to record a save on the season. 
The six-game homestand will start on Tuesday with three games against the Chicago White Sox and three against the Los Angeles Angels. The Twins will look to get on a winning streak against the Chicago White Sox, who rank last in every statistical category in baseball.

Tuesday vs Chicago White Sox
MIN Bailey Ober (1-1, 6.16) vs CHI Davis Martin (1-2, 4.84)
Wednesday vs Chicago White Sox
MIN David Festa (0-0, 0.00) vs CHI Undecided
Thursday vs Chicago White Sox
MIN Chris Paddack (0-2, 7.27) vs CHI Shane Smith (0-1, 2.82)
Friday vs Los Angeles Angels
MIN Simeon Woods Richardson (1-2, 4.74) vs LAA Kyle Hendricks (0-2, 4.50)
Saturday vs Los Angeles Angels
Joe Ryan (1-2, 4.00) vs LAA Yusei Kikuchi (0-3, 3.38)
Sunday vs Los Angeles Angels
Bailey Ober (1-1, 6.16) vs LAA Jose Soriano (2-2, 3.16)
 
 

The 2024 World Series just ended last night with the Dodgers beating the Yankees, which means moves and transactions are on the horizon. Being a typical MLB fan, I enjoy playing pretend GM and setting teams rosters for the upcoming season. There are certainly some needs with the Twins current roster, and I am aiming to fix them to improve the team for next season. Twins current ownership has already said payroll will be about the same as in 2024 ($130 million-ish), so I will take that into account, but it may be a little high, as it is what I think needs to be done to get the maximum benefit. Without further ado, this is my blueprint.
  
 
Transactions
Trade Paddack, Winder to LAA for Jo Adell Trade Gabriel Gonzalez, Jose Salas to TB for Yandy Diaz Sign Caleb Ferguson - 1 Year, $4 Million  
The Angels have already said they are looking to compete in 2025, and they don’t have a lot of pitching, so the Twins send them Chris Paddack and Josh Winder. Moving Paddack helps clear up some salary, and gives the Angels someone with upside to slot into their rotation at roughly market value. They also add a reliever in Josh Winder, who gives them depth and may end up becoming a solid reliever given a chance, which likely wouldn’t happen with the Twins, as he is out of options. The Twins add the former top prospect Jo Adell, who seems to have fallen out of favor with the Angels. He gives the Twins a right-handed outfielder who can mash lefties, and contrary to popular belief, has become a solid defender. Adell is a good change of scenery candidate.
Next, the Twins add their first baseman in Yandy Diaz. Diaz can crush the ball, finishing with an OPS+ of 157 just 2 seasons ago, while still posting a 116 OPS+ in 2024. His stock is a bit down, but the Rays may be looking to move his contract ($10M in 2025, $12M club option in 2024) in exchange for prospects, because that is the way they do things in Tampa Bay. It is tough to know what the Rays may want in a trade for Diaz, but I propose giving them Gabriel Gonzalez, who was a top-100 prospect as recent as early 2024, and Jose Salas, whose stock is also down, but is still young. These prospects are possibly interchangeable, depending on who the Rays would want. Diaz figures to be a somewhat of a hot commodity this offseason, so the Twins will likely have competition in acquiring him.
Lastly, the Twins add an experienced lefty in Caleb Ferguson. The Twins will need a reliable lefty, and ideally Ferguson can provide that. Ferguson had an okay 2024 season, but carries a solid track record as a middle relief option. This spot is not set in stone, as the Twins just need to add a lefty reliever, which will likely cost $4-6 million on the FA market, depending on who it is. Other names include AJ Minter, Aroldis Chapman, Aaron Bummer, etc.
 
Lineup/Bench
This is pretty self explanatory. You have Jeffers at catcher, with Vazquez as the backup. At first base you have Diaz, but Miranda and Julien can also get some time here. At 2B you have Lee, who figures to show why he is a top prospect, with Julien as a backup. Shortstop is obviously Correa, and Lewis occupies 3B. In the outfield you have Wallner in right, and Larnach in left, with Buxton in center. At this point in the offseason, the outfield seems like somewhat of a certainty. Miranda will occupy the DH spot in this blueprint, but we all know that spot is regularly rotated to give guys some rest. Ideally in 2025 Willi Castro will spend most of his time on the dirt, which seems to be where he is best-suited. He can play in place of Lewis and Correa on off-days, in an effort to keep them on the field for the whole season. Adell acts as your 4th outfielder, and right-handed outfield platoon option when facing lefties. Lastly, Julien fills in when needed, spending time at 1B, 2B, and DH. Infielder depth in AAA includes Michael Helman, Yunior Severino, Luke Keaschall, and Payton Eeles. Outfielder depth includes Austin Martin, Dashawn Keirsey, and top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez.
 
Starting Rotation
This is pretty similar to last year. Obviously you have the top 3 of Lopez, Ryan, and Ober. This may not be top of the league, but is very solid and will win you games. By trading away Paddack, I am giving Festa a spot in the rotation, and I think he will eventually flourish. He has the stuff to make him a mid/top of the rotation guy, it is just all about how he grows and develops. Lastly, SWR earned himself a spot in the rotation with his 2024 performance. He is a guy that will throw strikes and keep you in games, which is exactly what you need from a back of the rotation guy. There is also plenty of depth in the high-minors for the rotation, which includes Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Marco Raya, Randy Dobnak, Travis Adams, and more. These guys will eventually get their shot and hopefully prove the pitching pipeline is here to stay.
 
Bullpen
Plenty of familiar faces here, and this group has potential to be one of the best in the league. Closing games you have your option of Duran, Jax, and Stewart. In the middle innings you can go to any of Sands, Alcala, Topa, Ferguson, or even Varland and feel pretty good about your chances to keep the score where it is. Obviously bullpens can fluctuate very much from year to year, but if this is the group going into the season I feel pretty confident. Obviously injuries happen, so there will need to be depth in AAA to keep the team afloat. Righties include Ronny Henriquez, Matt Canterino, possibly a converted starter, and veterans on minor league deals the team will eventually sign. As for lefties, you have Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, and Jovani Moran. There is not a ton of depth in AAA, but as mentioned before, guys can surprise you, which can be good or bad.
 
Overall, this is a blueprint that I think could lead to the Twins getting back into the postseason. Obviously many things change from year to year, some guys will perform better, and some worse. As we saw in 2024, injuries can ruin a team, which is why depth is important. I’d love to hear any other ideas you all may have. Thank you for reading, enjoy the offseason!
 

Barring a total collapse the Twins are positioned well to make the playoffs. Even with the injuries and lack of moves.  While not looking ahead to next year, this year and our relative success has me thinking about the sustainability. So while not looking AHEAD to next year, I am looking AT next year. How or where we will be able to make some tweeks to keep up with the Royals.  This was initially going to be a very hopeful task. Instead it was a bti sobering. :(
WE have a strong potential core.
Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Wallner, Larnach on the position end of things and Ryan Assuming healthy for next year, Ober and Lopez also the developing SWR on the mound and Jax, Duran, Alcala in the pen.
We will be having some salaries coming off the books in Kepler $10M, Farmer $6M Margot and Disclafini mean another $8M I cant imagine Santana being back next year  so his $5M+ should be moved. Assuming continued financial constraint, and assuming even being able to keep current salary (and there is risk of having to cut even more next year).
At least this is a good $30M we can re-allocate to help improve the solid core. right?  Well Maybe not so much.
* Injury riddled Correa goes from $33 to $37M that takes us down to $26M avaiable to remain the same.
Injury riddled Byron Buxton stay about the same at $15M guaranteed. so that is good.
Pablo Lopez's salary jumps $13.5M next year so that gives leaves $12.5M
Even Chris Paddack locks in a $5M raise bringing potential available FA funds to $7.5M. and this will go up to maybe just over $10M with Kirilloff and others not being brought back.  SO with roughly $10M to spend, where will the needs be and how can we fill them?
OF: OF should be relatively set, even with departure of Kepler. Wallner steps right in there. Buxton should be "primary CF" and we can continue with Castro/Martin as back up if needed.  LF could still be Larnach as in house, with possibility of E Rod beign a mid season promotion.
 
IF: IF has lots of uncertainty, but not necessarily WHo will be playing, but WHERE they will be playing. Will Lewis be 3B? 2B? Correa, assuming health is locked into SS (or could a mid/late career change to 3B be in the works to take ease off feet and slide Lewis/Lee to SS??) Speaking of Lee he will be in there somewhere, and Miranda can be 1B/3B. Not to mention the potential of Julien shoudl he get things back together.  All that being said, no clue WHERE they will all be playing , but we definitely have the players to field an IF.
C: assumng Jeffers returns, and we have Vazques still on the books for $10M that will be impossible to move. SO status quo there.
That means position player wise, even if we WANTED to improve significantly... or even marginally, there really isn't much room.
Starting Pitching: AS mentioned above assuming the return and health of Ryan, Ober, Lopez, SWR that is  a quality top 4. Can Festa or Zebby prove capable of the #5 spot? Indications are there may not be a HUGE need for SIGNIFICANT upgrade to rotation.
BULLPEN: if we keep a core of Jax, Alcala, Duran in place, even a respectable Cole Sands.  and the Twins philosophy of "year to year" bullpen arms. where they believe Bullpen success is very inconsistent year over year, then we would be looking at not needing/spending much money there.  with a potential solid rotation, then a Varland can move to BP.
SO overall, while somewhat frustrating we have not added to a successful team. If you liek what you see this year, expect more of the same next year, if you DONT like what you see this year, expect more of the same next year.
I say we follow the Wolves lead and RUN IT BACK!!!
The onyl way to make significant changes is trying to trade Correa. That would be a cash dump move after continued years of missing big chunks of time and would get little in return unless we eat money which woudl go against our mantra. We have the organizational depth to handle moving correa. But if we did I would want to reinvest that $ into other quality players and we will just do it to save money. so lets run it back.
 
The ONE move I would make...  take our $10-12M (or so) we would have available. and make a run run at a 3 year guaranteed deal for Justin Verlander. a 3 year $36M deal. at his age and recent durability, I am not sure he gets more than that. Heck I would even go 3 year $45M to make it an even $15M. Verlander really wants 300 wins. It is a risk, but a risk worth taking. if he doesn't pitch, it is a 3 year hit. (heck we would have taken equal hits on the likes of Paddack), but if he is healthy in addition to being a still relatively quality arm, he would be a draw, especially as he approaches win #300.  PLUS what a better mentor for the likes of Ober, Ryan, Festa, SWB, and other young pitchers.
SO in long summation. For good or for bad, the Twins we have now will be the EXACT same team we have next year. Which may not be a bad thing.
 

Very soon, you will be able to update your Top 20 Minnesota Twins prospect rankings again (so watch for that!). In thinking about it over the past week or two, I actually ended up ranking my top 203 Twins prospects. Again, I include only players who remain a "prospect." It's the same criteria used the MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and any other credible prospect ranking site. 
This won't be a real deep dive into these prospects. In fact, I will attempt to keep the Top 10 prospect summaries to 3-4 sentences. The goal will be to keep the reports on prospects 11-20 to 2-3 sentences. For prospects 21-30, I'll limit myself to just 1-2 sentences. My hope is that you will use this as the starting ground and ask me a ton of questions. Ask questions on these 30 players, or ask about other players that don't appear on the list. (My hope is that I didn't miss anyone, but that is possible too.) Update - I didn't keep anywhere near my goals of keeping it short!
What do I consider in my rankings? In my opinion, the biggest factor is upside and ceiling. Just how good can this player be? But also, what is the players' floor? How likely is that player to get to the big leagues. Have they been hurt? For pitchers, I consider their velocity, stuff, reports on spin, etc. For position players, I consider athleticism, speed, defense, arm, ability to hit and the potential to turn doubles into home runs down the line. What level is the player at? How old is the player relative to level of competition? Was the player drafted out of high school or college (because that will effect age-to-level)? What types of decisions are being made regarding the player in terms of promotions, timing, place in batting order, how the teams take care of the players, etc.? And then ultimately it comes down to comparing a player versus another player and which I would have higher. 
Let's get started! When you get to the end, let's discuss the rankings, the players, who was snubbed, who's too high or too low? 
#1: Walker Jenkins - 19 - OF
It was just over a year ago that the Twins used the #5 overall pick in the 2023 draft. When he has been on the field, he has hit very well. Hurt in the Mussels first game of the season, he is hitting .265/.402/.398 (.800) with five doubles, a triple, and two homers in 27 games. Most impressive has been his patience. He has 23 walks to just 15 strikeouts. The sky is the limit. Jenkins has all five tools. 
#2: Brooks Lee - 23 - IF 
After impressing throughout spring training, Lee missed the first two months of the season with a back injury. He was brought back slowly with five rehab games in the FCL and five more in Fort Myers. He played 20 games for St. Paul and hit .329/.394/.635 (1.029) with five doubles and seven homers. He got off to a fast start, with eight hits in his first four big-league games. Since then, he has three hits over his past six games. A solid contact hitter, line drives from gap-to-gap, with potential for more power, Lee can also play solid defense across three infield positions. 
#3: Emmanuel Rodriguez - 21 - OF
In the offseason, E-Rod was added to the Twins 40-man roster. In 37 games at Double-A, he has hit .298/.479/.621 (1.100) with 12 doubles, two triples, and eight home runs. He has 42 walks in 166 plate appearances. His on-base skills are incredible for his age. His power is legit. He has great speed and does a very nice job in center field. You may have noticed... Twins prospects get hurt, and Rodriguez has not been able to avoid that. He has missed time two or three times due to a hand/wrist injury that keeps coming back. When he can play, he's as talented as anyone. 
#4: Luke Keaschall - 21 - 2B 
One of the biggest risers among Twins prospects this season, Keaschall represented the Twins in the Futures Game recently. He began the season with 44 games in Cedar Rapids where he hit .335/.457/.644 (1.001). In 42 games at Wichita since, he is hitting .315/.415/.457 (.872). Combined, he has 21 doubles, a triple, and 11 home runs. He has 53 walks already. he is also 20-for-25 in stolen base attempts. After seeing him hit early in the season, I compared his approach, set up and swing to that of Mike Trout. He's big, strong, and he's got a ton of potential. 
#5: Andrew Morris - 22 - RHP  
The next guy on the list is getting all the headlines, but Morris is putting up very similar numbers. Sure, a few more walks, but some impressive overall numbers. He was the Twins fourth-round pick in 2022 from Texas Tech. He began the 2024 season in Cedar Rapids. In seven starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA. He moved up to Wichita. He has pitched nine times and has gone 5-2 with a 1.19 ERA. In 83 combined innings, he has 87 strikeouts and just 16 walks. He's got the numbers, but he also has the stuff. He's got a mid-90s fastball. He also has a really good slider and a slower, 12-6 curveball. 
#6: Zebby Matthews - 24 - RHP
Matthews was the Twins eighth round pick in 2022 from Western Carolina. Like Morris, Matthews started in Cedar Rapids. After four starts, he was 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He moved up to Wichita and has pitched in 10 Double-A games. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA. In a combined 78 innings, he had 91 strikeouts and just six walks. Morris fills the strike zone. Matthews just picks the spot within the zone and throws it there. And it's worked because he now has the stuff to get whiffs in the strike zone. His mid-90s fastball also touches 98 mph now. He's also really, really worked to improve his secondary pitches. He has four strong pitches. 
#7: Austin Martin - 25 - UT 
After struggling in his transition to professional baseball and fighting some injuries the last couple of seasons, Martin has shown exactly what type of player he can be in the big leagues. He may not hit a huge number of home runs, but he hits a lot of line drives from foul line to foul line. He can run well, and run the bases well. And, defensively, he is at least adequate at second base, left, and center field. He will soon lose prospect eligibility, but the on-base machine has shown that he can be a productive big leaguer. 
#8: Charlee Soto - 18 - RHP 
A year ago, the Twins made him the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Reborn Christian Academy in Florida. He made his pro debut in 2024. A look at his overall numbers is fair, but not necessarily indicative of what he's done. In 15 starts, he is 0-3 with a 5.73 ERA. In 48 2/3 innings, he has struck out 60 and walked 22 batters. Soto is all about projection. First, he is huge; tall and very strong. He throws hard, touching 98 and 99 at times. He's also working on his secondary pitches, but each of them have shown some potential. Despite the lack of numbers, he's worked and improved and his most recent start was the best of the season.  
#9: Kaelen Culpepper - 21 - SS/3B
The Twins selected "KC" with the 21st overall pick this month in the 2024 MLB draft. The Memphis native was not recruited heavily out of high school, but he went to Kansas State and got the opportunity to play right away. In 2023, he hit .325/.423/.576 (.999) with eight doubles and 10 homers. He had the opportunity to play for Team USA last summer, playing for Larry Lee. This season, he played 61 games and hit .328/.419/.574 (.993) with 15 doubles, six triples, and 11 home runs. Culpepper is a contact, line-drive hitter who puts the ball in play and makes things happen. He played third base his first two years before moving to shortstop this season. I personally think that Culpepper is a great example of a prospect with a high floor but also has the tools to become a high-ceiling performer too. 
#10: Yasser Mercedes - 19 - OF 
A top international signing in 2022, he put up a great stat line in the DSL that summer. Last year, he moved up to the FCL, but a shoulder injury cost him performance before finally being shut down. Now healthy again, Mercedes is back. In 49 games, he has hit .337/.426/.577 (1.003) with 17 doubles, two triples, and six homers. He also has 18 stolen bases already. Mercedes can hit for average and doubles, but he'll get bigger and stronger and could add significant power. He's got really good speed, and he has the ability to play strong defense in center field. 
#11: David Festa - 24 - RHP 
A bit of a drop for Festa since the most recent prospect rankings, but honestly, for me at least, it's a lot more about the players that made big jumps in the season's first half. Sure, he had a couple of rough starts in the big leagues. He went 1-1 with an ERA over 10. I don't care about that at all. He gave up too many homers, but what did I see? I saw a fastball between 95 and 99. I saw a slider that was sharp and got some swing-and-misses. He also had some really good changeups. He's got three potentially big-league pitches. He just needs to get to St. Paul and keep working on the consistency and command of each of his pitches in and outside the zone. The stuff is definitely good enough. 
#12: Gabriel Gonzalez - 20 - OF
Did we place Gonzalez too high before the season started? Maybe. But what did we know? All we saw were his numbers, stats, and other information available online. Now he has been in the organization for a little over half of a season. Unfortunately, He missed nearly two months with a back injury which cost him valuable development time. Should he have been a Top 100 prospect as some in the industry had him? Maybe. He struggled a bit early in the season with his new organization and then got hurt. Overall, he is hitting .267/.303/.437 (.740) with 10 doubles, two triples and three home runs. So yes, he drops for now, but he is very young for the level. He is incredibly strong with a quick bat. He likes to swing. He's got things to work on, as does everyone on this list, but he's got a ton of talent and power potential.
#13: Marco Raya 21 - RHP 
It's just really hard right now to rank Raya. His "stuff" is as good as anyone's in the system, and I don't have a big problem with how he's been used. The other day when he threw 78 pitches in a game and it was the most he's thrown since 2022, it definitely gives pause. He has fought injury early in his career. He is not a big guy. He needs to continue gaining strength. I have no problem if his "future big league" roll is seen more as a 3-4 inning reliever where he just throws his big fastball and sharp breaking pitches and changeup at max effort. That can be an immensely valuable pitcher. But how do we rank that type of pitcher? Not as high as a full-time starter, but ahead of relievers. The stuff is good. The numbers haven't matched this year. 
#14: Rayne Doncon - 20 - IF 
Doncon came to the Twins this offseason with Manuel Margot from the Dodgers in exchange for SS Noah Miller. Doncon was a big international signing in 2021. He hit in the DSL, and then in the ACL. However, in 2023 at Low A, he hit just .215/.283/.368 (.651), and while those numbers aren't great, he hit 21 doubles and 14 homers. He began this season with 38 games and hit .283/.374/.464 (.838). He moved up to Cedar Rapids and in 43 games, he has hit .253/.333/.446 (.779). Combined, he already has 21 doubles and 10 home runs. Doncon is a really great athlete, very strong and quick. He's got a solid approach at the plate and does a decent job defensively around the infield. 
#15: Brandon Winokur - 19 - IF/OF
Winokur was the Twins third-round pick just a year ago out of high school in California. Winokur just might be the most athletic player in the Twins system. He stands 6-6 and is lean. Right now, he's able to play shortstop and third base as well as center field and right field. He's got a ton of power potential on his frame. Right now, he's got really good speed as well. In 56 games this season, he has hit .252/.347/.393 (.740) with 13 doubles and five homers. He has 23 walks, but he's also struck out a lot. He also have 14 stolen bases. 2024 is about getting him games and at-bats and time at each of the defensive positions. He'll have an offseason to work on things, so I believe 2025 will be a bigger year for him. 
#16: Dasan Hill - 18 - LHP 
Hill was the Twins fourth pick in last week's draft, a competitive balance pick following the second round. The lanky lefty had committed to Dallas Baptist. At 6-4 and 175 has plenty of room to add some weight and mature. He's already throwing 95 mph at times. He also has the makings of really good slider in the low-80s and high-70s slower curveball. He also has a changeup. He's all about upside. 
#17: Kala’i Rosario  - 22 - OF
Rosario was the Twins' fifth and final pick from the 2020 draft. The Hawaiian-born slugger was the High-A Midwest League's home run and RBI champ and the league's MVP. He went to the Arizona Fall League and tied for the league lead in home runs. Rosario only recently turned 22, so he is very young for the Double-A level. In 52 games, he hit .241/.342/.417 (.759) with 15 doubles and six homers. Unfortunately, his season came to an end due to injury. 
#18: Cory Lewis - 23 - RHP
Lewis was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2022 out of UC-Santa Barbara. He made his professional debut in 2023. He made nine starts in Fort Myers and 13 starts in Cedar Rapids. He went a combined 9-4 with a 2.49 ERA. In 101 1/3 innings, he had 118 strikeouts and 33 walks. He was named the Twins minor-league pitcher of the year and the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. Unfortunately, he missed the first two months of this season with injury. He is now back and with the Wichita Wind Surge where he has made five starts. 
#19: Ricardo Olivar - 22 - C 
The Twins signed Olivar in July of 2019 which meant that his professional career really didn't get underway until the 2021 season. He had a breakout season in the FCL in 2022. In 40 games, he hit .349 (1.046) with 12 doubles, three triples and five homers. He validated that season by hitting .285 (.855) with 28 doubles and 10 homers in Fort Myers. He has played in 75 games for Cedar Rapids .He is hitting .294/.403/.489 (.892) with 15 doubles, three triples, and 11 home runs. He's a good athlete for a catcher and can play some left field. He's got a strong arm. He takes very good plate appearances and is willing to walk. He also has the talent to be a solid all-around hitter. 
#20: Danny De Andrade - 20 - SS 
De Andrade was a top international signing for the Twins in January of 2021 from Venezuela. He has generally held his own offensively while playing very strong defense at shortstop. In 2023 in Fort Myers, he hit .244/.354/.396 (.750) with 21 doubles, three triples and 11 home runs. He was also 20-for-24 in stolen base attempts. In 29 games with Cedar Rapids this year, he hit .243/.333/.359 (.693) with six doubles, two homers and five steals. Unfortunately, his season came to an end after a high-ankle injury. 
#21: Kyle DeBarge - 21 - SS 
Barely recruited out of high school, the Louisiana native stayed in-state and played for the Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana-Lafayette. He played in 60 games that first season and hit .293 (.750), a solid freshman season. In 2023, he hit .371 (.994) with 15 doubles and seven home runs. He spent last summer in the Cape Cod League. This spring, DeBarge was the Sun Belt Conference player of the year after hitting .356/.418/.699 (1.117) with 19 doubles, three triples and 21 homers. At the same time, few question his ability to stay at shortstop defensively. He's just 5-9, but it's fair to call him a "ballplayer." 
#22: Jose Rodriguez - 19 - OF
Rodriguez is a big, strong youngster with a ton of power potential. He's shown it at various times. As a 17-year-old in the DSL in 2022, he hit .290 (.966) with 15 homers, three triples, and 13 home runs. In 2023, he came to the FCL and really had to adjust but by season's end, he had. He hit .262 (.737) with 10 doubles and six homers. This year, he played 33 games with the Mussels and hit just .186 (.569) and struck out about 33.3% of the time. But few in the organization have as much power potential as Rodriguez. Unfortunately, his season came to an early end as well which is costing him valuable development opportunities. 
#23: Jair Camargo - 25 - C 
Camargo signed with the Dodgers out of Colombia in January of 2015. In February of 2020, he was traded with Kenta Maeda to the Twins. It's been a slow progression through the Twins system ever since. Last year in St. Paul, he hit .259/.323/.503 (.826) with 16 doubles and 21 homers. This year, he's been injured a couple of times and was called up for a little while. The burly backstop is a good athlete, and he's quite strong. He has improved his plate discipline and contact rate the past couple of years. 
#24: Yunior Severino - 24 - IF 
It's been an interesting career for Severino, going back to signing with the Braves, being deemed a free agent, and signing with the Twins to a second seven-digit signing bonus. He could always hit, and he's made himself playable at the corners. In 2023, he played 84 games for Wichita and 36 games at St. Paul. Combined, he hit .272/.352/.546 (.898) with 17 doubles and a minor-league-leading 35 home runs. His 2024 started out very slowly. That makes his .253/.362/.451 (.813) stat line look better. He's got nine doubles and 16 home runs. Tons of swing and miss, but a lot of pop in his bat too. 
#25: Dameury Pena - 18 - 2B 
A right-handed Luis Arraez? Probably not fair, but Pena is a really good hitter as a very young player. Signed in January 2023, he hit .382/.453/.496 (.949) with eight doubles and three triples. This year, as an 18-year-old in the FCL, he has hit .294/.400/.431 (.831) with four doubles, a triple, and three home runs in 33 games. Over the two years, he has 32 walks to go with just 18 strikeouts. Hard contact, uses the whole field, lots of singles and doubles. Pena is a very intriguing prospect. 
#26: Rubel Cespedes - 23 - 3B/1B 
Cespedes has been in the organization for a long time, but I would bet most people really didn't know his name before this season. He signed with the Twins out of the Dominican Republic back in April of 2019. He made his pro debut in the DSL that summer. In 2021, he hit just .158 in the FCL. However, in 2022, he was doing well in Extended Spring and got an opportunity with Fort Myers. He stuck, hitting over 74 games. He remained with the Mussels in 2023. In 115 games, he hit .233/.313/.398 (.711) with 26 doubles and 13 homers. He played some winter ball this offseason which he said really helped him prepare for this year. In 71 games with the Kernels, he is hitting .289/.361/.459 (.820) with 12 doubles and 10 home runs. Cespedes has really cut his K-Rate. He's got a fairly smooth but strong left-handed swing that can generate a lot of power around the field. Defensively, he's solid at both corner infield spots and possesses a tremendously strong arm. 
#27: C.J. Culpepper - 22 - RHP
Culpepper was the Twins 13th round pick in 2022 out of Cal-Baptist. He split 2023 between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. In 21 starts, he went 6-5 with a 3.56 ERA. He had 89 strikeouts per inning. This offseason, he found himself featured in national publication's Top 10 Twins prospect rankings? He isn't a flame-thrower, though he sits 92-94. What makes him so intriguing is that he has six pitches, and he's been encouraged to continue working with all of them. This season, he's been limited to just seven starts. He's been fine, posting a 3.26 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. However, he has been on the IL when forearm/elbow issues. 
#28: Billy Amick - 21 - 3B 
A South Carolina native, Amick stayed in-state out of high school and went to Clemson. His first season, he had just 19 plate appearances over nine games (and had 11 strikeouts). However, as a sophomore, he played in 46 games and hit .413/.464/.773 (1.236) with 17 doubles and 13 home runs. After spending time in The Cape, he took advantage of the transfer portal and went to Tennessee and the SEC. In 65 games, he hit .306/.387/.639 (1.026) with 14 doubles and 23 home runs. He helped lead the Volunteers to the College World Series championship. The Twins used their second-round pick on the slugger, and he could move swiftly once he gets acclimated. 
#29: Spencer Bengard - 22 - RHP
This is the Cal-Baptist section of my prospect rankings. Bengard was the Twins 15th round pick in 2023 from the same school as CJ Culpepper. (No, I couldn't quite fit FCL right-hander and 2023 Undrafted Free Agent signing into this range.) Bengard, to some degree has become this year's Day 3 Find. He began the season working out of the Fort Myers bullpen. He's made six starts and six relief appearances, but even coming out of the bullpen he works 3-5 innings at a time. He is 6-2 with a 1.79 ERA. In 55 1/3 innings, he has 57 strikeouts to just 10 walks. Bengard throws a low-90s fastball (90-91, touch 94), a low-to-mid-80s changeup, a mid-80s slider, and some upper-70s curveballs. 
#30: Eduardo Beltre - 17 - IF 
At the 30th spot, it's always fun to consider the youngest players in the organization. In January, the Twins signed Beltre out of the Dominican Republic with a bonus just shy of $1.5 million. Only Daiber De Los Santos received a larger bonus this year ($1.9M). His DSL season got going a little bit late due to a wrist injury, but once he got in the lineup, he's been unreal. In 22 games, he is hitting .339/.500/.554 (1.054) with two doubles and four homers. He's also got 18 walks to go with just 14 strikeouts, something I sure like to see. He's got huge power potential, but he is also a very good athlete. He likely has the speed to stay in center, but he's been getting a lot of time in right field too. 
The Next 20 (in alphabetical order)
Adrian Bohorquez - RHP 
Darren Bowen - RHP
Matt Canterino - RHP 
Noah Cardenas - C 
Byron Chourio - OF 
Miguel Cordero - RHP 
Khadim Diaw - C
Daiber De Los Santos - SS 
Jaime Ferrer - OF
Tanner Hall - RHP 
Ronny Henriquez - RH RP 
Kyle Jones - RHP 
DaShawn Keirsey - OF
Cesar Lares - LHP 
Jeferson Morales - OF 
Jaylen Nowlin - LHP 
Pierson Ohl - RHP 
Connor Prielipp - LHP 
Tanner Schobel - IF
Patrick Winkel - C
 

The Twins front office and scouting department have done a really good job in recent drafts in finding talent later on, essentially throwing darts at a lot of strike throwing, but low velocity pitchers and this draft class was no different. 
Christian Beccera, Xavier Kolhosser, Jacob Kisting, Cole Peschl, Aidan Haugh, Michael Ross, Merit Jones and Logan Whittaker were 8 of the 10 picks the Twins made on day three, all that were starters at some point in College. Air Force third basemen Jay Thomason was the only position player taken. But the other player I've not mentioned up to this point is probably my favorite pick the Twins made in the late rounds. That being 11th round pick in LHP Michael Carpenter. Committed to Eastern Carolina as a JUCO transfer out of Madison College, Carpenter put up video game like numbers at just 19 years old. Carpenter was named an NJCAA All American after posting a 1.03 ERA and broke the school's single season record for strikeouts with 111 in 78.1 innings pitched with just 11 walks. He also threw 7 complete games. And just look at this stretch he went on in the middle of the season.
In the 11th round in last year's draft, the Twins took Iowa RHP Ty Langdenberg, who was already promoted to Cedar Rapids this year after posting a 3.68 ERA at Fort Myers. Langdenberg is obviously a bit more polished, coming out of Iowa and also being older at 22 years old. Carpenter is intriging to me because of how young he is at just 19, a three-pitch mix that starts with a fastball that tops around 93 with what scouts describe as "deceptive".  It feels like that despite the level of competion that will jump for Carpenter depending on if he signs and where he plays to finish out this season, he feels like an arm to really keep an eye out on in the system. The Twins don't really have a strong left handed pitching prospect outside of Connor Prielipp and the underrated Cesar Lares, so Carpenter's development is even more key to follow. 
Who was your favorite Twins draft pick? Follow me on X @JuhnTroy and stay followed on my blog, where hopefully I post even more this year. 

A month ago, Cody Christie wrote a great article around Jhoan Duran’s decreased velocity, and how that has impacted his pitch mix changes. A couple findings from that article were that:
His velocity is down roughly 1.2 MPH on every pitch compared to 2023, through mid-May. He’s been throwing his heater much less, and relying on his off-speed offerings more. At that time, he had decreased his fastball usage from 45% last year, to 34.3% this year through mid-May. Well, this trend has continued, and his results have gotten worse. Duran has not found his missing velo, and his fastball usage reduction has become even more extreme. Here are his past three games:
Last night, when pitching in back to back games, he only threw two 4-seam fastballs out of 10 pitches, and barely broke 100, at 100.1 and 100.4. The night before, Duran had a bit more gas, breaking 100 on all four fastballs (out of 15 pitches), with fastballs at 101.8, 101.1, 101.1, and 100.2. On Sunday, Duran threw fastballs four times, and failed to break 100 on two of them. What this tells us is that recently, his fastball usage is down to around 25%, and his velocity is down even more. While Cody’s article focused on velo and pitch mix, this article is going to take a deep dive into his pitch effectiveness and some pitch characteristics. To start that discussion, let’s take a look at his xwOBA throughout the season.

When Cody wrote his article, Duran’s xwOBA was sitting at .237, on a league average of just over .300. Today, his xwOBA is sitting at .281. That’s still better than league average, but it’s not world-beating any longer. But why?
Looking at Statcast and Baseball Savant data, so far this season, Duran has had only one effective pitch - his splinker. Throughout ’24, that is still a consistently great pitch for him. However, his fastball and his curve have both been much worse than typical for him, and rank poorly overall.

So, what has changed since last season, aside from his velocity dip? Last year, each of his offerings were good, and his splinker was GREAT. Digging deeper, we can see that this year, his overall chase rate is down almost 4%, and his whiff rate is down 4.6%. His strikeout rate is 2.3% less than last year (but his walk rate is down slightly as well. Batters are hitting him less hard, but they are also elevating the ball more, as evidenced by his ground ball rate dropping 5.5%. Overall, his xBA is up almost 30 points year over year.

But why? Let’s look at his fastball and curveball separately. We will start either his fastball.,
Fastball
This year, Duran'is fastball has lost some vertical drop compared to the average fastball, so it’s likely that hitters are perceiving the pitch as more crushable.

Location has also been a factor for his fastball success. See his heat map for last year - a lot of pitches up, leading to a lot of swing and miss.

This year however, his fastball is generally going much lower, and it’s resulting in a roughly .800 xOPS - not what you want to see out of one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 
Curveball
We can see that his curveball used to be a putaway pitch, but now isn’t.

 
Here, we can see that his spin rate is down on his curveball, losing about 100 RPM since last year. His splinker and fastball have both lost a little spin as well, but its not drastic. We can also see that his extension is down slightly, so that likely accounts for some perceived velocity loss in addition to the actual loss.
His pitch location also may be impacting his results. See these comparisons:

Here we can see that last year, Duran threw a lot of curveballs that missed just low, leading to more whiffs. This year, his curves are tending to miss VERY low, which helps to explain his decrease in effectiveness. If a batter know’s it’s a ball, they won’t swing, and there’s a pretty good chance that with some of these locations, they just know.

Overall, the story this all tells is that Duran is a great pitcher who is struggling with some mechanics, and locating his pitches where they are most effective. Even when throwing a little slower, he still ranks near the 100% percentile in velocity. His stuff will play. Here’s to hoping that he and the coaching staff can get the mechanics and the command back on track.
What do you think? Are better days ahead for the flamethrower?

The Athletic just published an article about "FIve Trades I'd Like To See" before the MLB trade deadline. One of them involved the Twins trading for Pete Alonso:
Twins get: Pete Alonso
Mets get: Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, Luke Keaschall
I for one would be very irritated if the Twins made this trade. Let's start with what we get. Pete Alonso is a great hitter and would be a great fit in the middle of our lineup for the next two or three months. After that, he is going to a high revenue team for 2025 and beyond, most likely returning to the Mets. He likes it there, he likes New York, and it's only a matter of whether they will pony up the money. If the Mets won't pony up the money, another East Coast team will. I have to think the Yankees are looking for a first basemen for next season given Anthony Rizzo's struggles. Alonso is the very definition of a short term one season rental. And that's before we think about whether ownership would be willing to part with the about $8 million he still owed for the rest of the 2024 season.
Now let's think about what we would give up. I am down on Kirilloff as are many others, but he still has high end upside. I wouldn't mind using him as part of a trade given his redundancy with Larnach and Wallner (I think Miranda has won the first base job starting next season unless he falls off the table), but not when you have to give up two quality pieces to go with him. Festa is probably our best starting pitching prospect and certainly the one closest to the Majors. Keaschall is only 21 and looks to have some real upside in the middle infield. That's important when we remember that Correa is only going to be the starting SS for another 3-4 years, when he will age out. Lewis' knee injuries probably leave him at 3B for the foreseeable future. Lee or Keaschall may be the Shortstop starting in 2026 or 2027. Way too big a package for two or three months of Pete Alonso, way too much. I might give up one of the three as long as it wasn't Festa plus a less heralded prospect or two like Schobel or Rosario, but not the three listed. 
My conclusion is this is classic clickbait from a New York homer wanting to improve his team. What say each of you?

Do you remember nearly 10 years ago the "Cueto, Cuetoooo" incident in the WC game between Cincinatti and Pittsburgh. Here it is to remind you. 
 
Why is this so memorable? It's because fans were so into this game (Pirates first playoff game in 30 years) that they mentally broke a pitcher that was seen as one of the best in the NL at that time. It's one of the best crowds to ever attend a baseball game that I've ever seen. You could tell how much Pittsburgh fans had been waiting for this moment to come, and even though they couldn't get past St. Louis that year, this was always the defining moment of the 2013 playoffs (besides the Victorino grand slam). I'm not asking Twins fans to be like this. Heck, I don't think this kind of crowd trolling will ever be replicated in the modern game again. But some people just can't seem to grasp how fans can have a factor in playoff games. Not the biggest factor, but it's quite literally the bare minimum. I don't care personally if the Twins are losing 6-2, 8-0, 11-4, anything. Analytics shouldn't factor into how you cheer for this team in the playoffs. Who gives a crap about "win probability" when a team legit came back from 9 runs down just a couple of days ago. Nothing will make me more excited from my college dorm room when Pablo Lopez gets a massive strikeout in the sixth inning with the bases loaded. 
And this is verbatim what I tweeted an hour ago as of this post but: If I ever attend a playoff game at Target field, I will be loud. No matter what. I attended game 2 of the 2019 ALDS and that game was pretty hopeless. I still cared no matter what. Still cheered every strike out, every base runner. Games never over until it’s over. You should probably be loud too. And It's encouraged. Be loud and proud. Show why you bought tickets. 

Saint Paul, Minnesota - The Indianapolis Guardians (Pittsburgh Pirates) pitching staff silenced the Saints offense most of Tuesday night; however, in the ninth the Saints would bring the tying run to the plate. The Saints were unable to complete a comeback and dropped game one of the series to the Guardians by a score of 8-5 in front of 7,262. The Saints fell to 66-48 on the season. 
Ji Hwan Bae (MLB Rehab Assignment) led off the game with a double to left. Nick Gonzales followed up with a double of his own, which give the Guardians a 1-0 lead. 
The Saints would answer in the bottom of the first. Andrew Stevenson led off with a walk. Stevenson stole second base. This was his 39th stolen base of the season. Kyle Garlick doubled on a sharp line drive to left. This allowed Stevenson to score. The Saints tied the game at one. 
Little did the Saints know that would be the only hit the Saints offense would collect until the sixth. Between the first and sixth it was all Indianapolis. The Guardians scored four in the second and two in the fourth to knock Saints starter Randy Dobnak out of the game. 
Dobnak worked four innings allowing eleven hits and seven runs (six earned). He struck out four and walked three.  
In the sixth, Brooks Lee tripled. Trevor Larnach hit a sacrifice fly to right. The Saints trailed 7-2. 
Indianapolis got a run in the seventh when Vinny Capra walked. Next, Mason Martin doubled, which allowed Capra to advance to third. Dom Nunez was hit-by-the-pitch to load the bases. Gonzales walked to force in a run, and Indianapolis took an 8-2 lead. 
In the eighth, Gilberto Celestino walked to start the inning. Next, Andrew Stevenson singled, which allowed Celestino to advance to third. Brooks Lee hit a sacrifice fly. St. Paul trailed 8-3. 
In the ninth the Saints brought the tying run to the plate. Jair Camargo walked, and Austin Martin hit his third home run of the season. The Saints trailed 8-5. Celestino and Stevenson walked to bring Lee to the plate as the tying run with one out. Lee grounded out to shortstop. Finally, Trevor Larnach represented the tying run with two outs. Larnach struck out to end the game. Indianapolis held on for an 8-5 win. 
Prior to Tuesday's game Carlos Luna was assigned to Wichita from St. Paul. Also, the Minnesota Twins reinstated Royce Lewis from the 10-day IL and placed OF/INF Willi Castro on the 10-day IL with a mild left oblique strain. 
Royce Lewis spoke with the media at Target field on Tuesday when being reactivated by the Twins. He spoke about his experience rehabbing in St. Paul. Lewis said: "it's basically a Twins game over there. The excitement from the fans over there is just as fun as here. You feed off that. When Louie Varland was pitching... he is the hometown kid and everyone was saying, 'Louuuu!' so cool". 
The Indianapolis Guardians and St. Paul Saints meet in game two of a six-game series on Wednesday night at CHS Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. Indianapolis will send RHP Jared Jones (2-2, 5.44) while the Saints will send RHP Louie Varland (7-0, 4.03) to the mound. The game can be seen on the Saints Broadcast Network, MiLB.TV, and heard on KFAN Plus, 96.7 FM.

Saint Paul, Minnesota - The St. Paul Saints were looking to complete a six-game sweep of the Louisville Bats on Sunday afternoon but pitching struggled for both teams. The Bats would come out on top with an 8-6 rain shortened six innings win in front of 7,244. The Saints fell to 66-47 on the season.    The Saints offense exploded in the first scoring six runs. It started when Royce Lewis (MLB Rehab Assignment) singled to right and stole second base to put himself in scoring position. Next, Brooks Lee hit an RBI single to right, which allowed Lewis to score, and the Saints were on the board first. Yonior Severino grounded out, which brought Prato to the plate with two outs. Prato singled to right and gave the Saints a 2-0 lead. Jiar Camargo walked, and Gilberto Celestino singled to bring Austin Martin to the plate. Martin hit a three-run home run, which was his second home run of the year, and this put the Saints on top 6-0. A single from DaShawn Keirsey Jr. knocked Ben Lively (MLB Rehab Assignment) out of the game. Casey Legumina came in and struck out Andrew Stevenson to end the inning.    Ben Lively lasted 0.2 innings throwing 32 pitches. Lively gave up six hits on six runs while walking one.    Casey Legumina picked up his first win of the season working 1.1 innings. Antone is credited with a hold and Phillips with the save.    Carlos Luna had a strong first inning, but the Bats started to chip away in the second. Nick Martini singled and Noelvi Marte was hit-by-the-pitch. Jason Vosler walked to load the bases with nobody out. Luna threw a wild pitch, which allowed Martini to score. Next, Jose Barrero hit a sacrifice fly to left. St. Paul had a 6-2 lead.    In the third, Curt Casali singled and Matt Reynolds doubled down the line in left. Nick Martini hit his 15th home run of the season. Louisville trailed by one and the bats were just starting to warm up. Marte singled and Jason Vosler doubled. Drew Mount hit his third home run of the season, and Louisville had an 8-6 lead. That would end the afternoon for Carlos Luna. Ronny Henriquez came on in relief.    Luna worked 2.2 innings allowing seven hits and eight runs. He struck out three while walking one. Henriquez worked 2.1 innings allowing one hit and striking out four.    On August 3rd Brooks Lee was called up to Triple-A. He is the number one prospect in the organization. When called up this was his second time ever stepping foot in the state of Minnesota, with the first being when he signed with the Minnesota Twins. Speaking with Lee prior to the game on Sunday we talked about how his experience has been so far in St. Paul. Lee said: "Wichita has a very nice stadium, but this is unbelievable, a lot more fans". Lee was excited for the opportunity to play with Royce Lewis this past week. "It is really fun playing with him, we like to have fun on the left side. I feel comfortable with him. We are both from California and were young when we got drafted. He has given me a lot of one-on-one time, and he knows I want to ask questions, and he lets me have any advice I can take. That's what a good big leaguer would do". 
Royce Lewis went 2-for-4 on Sunday with a run scored. He is expected to rejoin the Minnesota Twins when the Twins open a series at Target Field Tuesday night against Detroit.    The Saints have Monday off and begin a series against Indianapolis on Tuesday. The Indianapolis Guardians (Pittsburgh Pirates) and St. Paul Saints meet in game one of a six-game series on Tuesday night at CHS Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. Both teams are TBA. The game can be seen on the Saints Broadcast Network, MiLB.TV, and heard on KFAN Plus, 96.7 FM. 

Saint Paul, Minnesota - Royce Lewis began an MLB Rehab Assignment on Tuesday night. There was no shortage of action when Cincinnati prospect Randy Wynne was ejected for throwing at Severino while the Saints offense exploded for 14 runs in a 14-4 victory over the Louisville Bats (Cincinnati Reds) in front of 7,638. The Saints improved to 62-46 on the season. 
Trevor Larnach got the Saints going with a solo home run in the second. This was his 10th of the season. Later in the inning, Kyle Garlick walked, and Anthony Prato hit a bases clearing double. Next, Austin Martin walked, and the Saints pulled off a double steal. This put runners on second and third when DaShawn Keirsey Jr. singled to right, which gave the Saints a 4-0 lead. This ended the night for Bats starter Connor Phillips. This was his shortest start of the season. Finally, Royce Lewis hit a sacrifice fly to center, which gave St. Paul a 5-0 lead. 
In the third, Larnach walked, and Yunior Severino hit his first home run as a Saint. This gave the Saints a 7-0 lead. 
Lewis hit a solo home run in the fourth, and the Saints led 8-0. 
Louisville would get on the board in the fifth on a fielding error by Saints second baseman Anthony Prato. 
The Saints would have another five-run inning in the fifth. It started when Garlick doubled and Severino was hit-by-the-pitch. Tejay Antone would come into the game to pitch for Louisville because plate umpire Edwin Jimenez ejected Randy Wynne. Severino was hit on the first pitch of his at-bat. Originally, umpires would not eject Wynne; however, after meeting at mid-field Wynne would be ejected. The inning would get a lot worse for the Bats. Prato walked and Martin collected an RBI single, which gave the Saints a 9-1 lead. Chris Williams would come to the plate with the bases loaded and hit his 19th home run of the season. This was the 11th grand slam the Saints have hit on the season, which ties the Los Angeles Dodgers for the most in all of baseball. At this point St. Paul led 13-1. 
Louisville would get three in the sixth. Nick Martini hit a solo home run to right. Later in the inning, Jason Vosler walked, and Drew Mount hit a home run to right. Louisville trailed 13-4 at this point. 
The Saints wanted to ensure they kept a large lead. Williams hit an RBI single in the sixth, which allowed Prato to score, and the Saints led 14-4. 
Each of the nine starters for the Saints would collect a hit. Martin led the team as a top performer on Tuesday going 3-for-3 with two runs, an RBI and stolen base. 
The Louisville Bats and St. Paul Saints will meet in game two of a six-game series on Wednesday afternoon at CHS Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07 p.m. Louisville will send RHP Alec Mills (0-0, 5.02) while St. Paul will counter with RHP Randy Dobnak (4-5, 4.33). The game can be seen on the Saints Broadcast Network, MiLB.TV, and heard on KFAN Plus, 96.7 FM.