NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

The hitting pipeline looks very promising with Lewis and Julien in the bigs, with Lee, E-Rod, and Wallner soon to follow, and now Schobel and Jenkins in the low minors. I don't know how long this FO is going to be in a job, but they have set up a steady stream of good young hitters.

The Luis Arraez/Pablo Lopez comparison is a case of Arraez pitching into some great luck while Lopez has been unlucky to this point. Luis Arraez is a career .328 hitter with a career .299 xBA (a difference of .029 points). However, this year, his batting average is .055 points higher than his xBA (.388 to .333). The last time I checked, Zips projected that he'll end the year with a ~.360 batting average. I think that there is a lot of negative regression to the mean that will happen, and Arraez does not walk nearly enough to continue batting close to .400 (Rod Carew walked 10% of the time in 1977 and Ted Williams walked 21.6% of the time in 1942. Luis Arraez "only" has a 7% walk rate). Conversely, Pablo Lopez has hit into some poor luck. From 2020-2022, he's posted a 3.52 ERA and 3.58 xERA over 340.0 IP (with him posting equivalent 3.75 figures in 2022). This year, his 3.03 xERA is paired with a much higher 3.89 figure in the first half. Hitters are slashing .220/.281/.358 against him (a heck of a lot worse than Gallo and Kepler, two guys who half of y'all want to DFA), and he's probably going to strikeout 250 batters if he stays healthy. They both have equivalent trade values (per BTV), and I am very excited to see Lopez, Ryan, and Ober form a three-headed monster at the top of the rotation for the next 4+ years.

To understand what should happen at the deadline, we need to understand where the team is at. Here are a couple of takeaways from the first part of the Twins' first half: Negatives: 1. The team struggles to hit lefty pitching 2. Second basemen not named Jorge Polanco have issues fielding their position 3. High-leverage relief corps is running pretty thin. Especially on the left-handed side. 4. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa struggle with RISP Positives: 1. Starting pitching and top three bullpen arms (Jax, Duran, and Stewart) 2. Rocco leaving the starters in longer allows the bullpen to rest 3. Willi Castro, Michael A Taylor, and Donovan Solano are effective glue guys 4. The outfield has many excellent defenders, and the outfield defense has been generally great Based on those takeaways, we can make a couple of conclusions. Chiefly, none of the negatives besides #4 can be remedied in-house. Also, based on the fact that the Twins' depth is excellent, a "quiet" deadline where the FO picks up a couple of rental relievers and a bench bat seems unlikely. It is also the case that if the Twins fail to win the division, this FO is likely gone. Thus, the stars are seemingly aligned for another "loud" deadline for the Twins. Here are some of the trade options from each likely seller and their value (per BTV): Tigers: Cisnero (1M), Lorenzen (2M), and Rodriguez (8.4M) White Sox: Anderson (1.3M), Giolito (14.8M), Grandal (-3.9M), Graveman (-1.9M), Kelly (1.5M), Lopez (0.8M), and Middleton (1.3M) Royals: Barlow (9.4M) and Greinke (0.5M) Athletics: Blackburn (6.4M) and Laureano (4.8M) Mets: Pham (0.8M) and Robertson (3M) Nationals: Candelario (10.6M), Harvey (8.6), and Finnegan (4.6) Cubs: Alzolay (20.7M), Bellinger (1.1M), Fulmer (2.5M), and Stroman (9.4M) Pirates: Bednar (40.8M) and McCutchen (5M) Cardinals: Flaherty (3.3M), Goldschmidt (21.1M), Hicks (2.6M), and Montgomery (14M) Padres: Hader (8.3M), Garcia (1.6M), and Snell (7.4M) Rockies: Hand (3.2M), Profar (-3.9M), and Suter (1.7M) There is a fairly abundant relief market, and it is not overly expensive. However, there are not many second-base options (infield is quite thin on the whole), and the Twins are likely better off sticking with Julien/Farmer/Solano until Polanco returns. There are a few of trades that I would make as GM: Bullpen help from the Rockies: Brent Suter for Byron Chourio (UR) After moving to Coors Field, Suter is posting a career-low HR/9 over 41.2 IP this season (0.4 HR/9). Over his career, he's used his 4-seam fastball over 60% of the time, but this season, he's using an even mix of his sinker/4-seam/changeup (33%-27% for each pitch) and is sporting a new slider which drops 3.7 inches more than the average slider at his arm slot. His 4-seamer has excellent rise, and his effective changeup (.159 xwOBA against) gives him reverse splits (1.01 WHIP vs righties and 1.62 WHIP vs lefties). Overall, Suter is a better, more experienced version of Jovani Moran, and should be an effective 7th/8th inning arm for the Twins down the stretch. Byron Chourio was a footnote from the Pablo Lopez/Luis Arraez deal and is well away from making an impact in the majors while being off MLB's Twins' top 30 prospects. A reigning MVP who mashes lefties: Paul Goldschmidt for Danny De Andrade (#13), Yasser Mercedes (#12), Marco Raya (#4), and Josh Winder St. Louis may be reluctant to deal the reigning National League MVP, but they do not have the pitching to compete in the next two seasons. However, a young, controllable arm like Winder and an exciting prospect like Raya could tempt the Cardinals to relinquish their star first baseman. Despite his production numbers being slightly down this year (.981 OPS in '22 to .851 OPS in '23), his peripheral numbers are actually up (.367 xwOBA in '22 to .388 xwOBA in '23). His hard-hit rate is up 8.4% and his average exit velo is up 2.6mph. He's only posing a .702 OPS against lefties this year (versus a 1.328 OPS in 22), but the peripherals show he's just running into bad luck. At the end of the day, this is the kind of move that will help take the offense to the next level while not completely emptying the farm. He brings gold-glove caliber defense at first and will move Kirilloff to the outfield so that we can see less of Gallo (More on him, later). A bullpen arm from a division rival: Kendall Graveman and $5M for Tanner Schobel (#14) The White Sox's setup man is currently sporting a 2.92 ERA and a 1.108 WHIP. His FIP is at an unsightly 4.83, but his hard-hit percentage and xwOBA allowed are nearly identical to his marks posted last season. One big change from previous years is his launch angle against. For most of his career, the average launch angle allowed was between six and seven degrees. However, he's allowing an average launch angle of 18 degrees, by far the highest mark of his career; the only noticeable pitch usage difference is that he's flipped his 4-seam and changeup usage (18% 4-seam to 8% changeup). His 2-seamer is moving more than it was in previous years. It seems as though Graveman's increased average launch angle allowed is due to the increase in his pop-up rate, from 4.2% in '22 to 11.7% in '23. Graveman gets a lot of soft contact and should combine with Stewart/Jax/Suter to be a great bridge to Duran. The White Sox agree to pay the rest of Graveman's salary this year as well as a quarter of his '24 salary to acquire a top-15 prospect. Gallo gets dealt for the third straight deadline: Spencer Arrighetti (#9) for Joey Gallo The Astros are missing a left-handed power bat, and have not gotten good production from Jose Abreu at first. Gallo would slide into the backend of their lineup and help them create separation in closer games. Houston's farm system is pretty bad, so Arrighetti would likely be in the 15-20 range of prospects for the Twins. He's got a good fastball and breaking balls (sweeper and curveball), with the sweeper being a great out pitch that misses many bats. The Twins have plenty of outfielders (Taylor, Castro, Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, and Contreras) and can parlay this depth to recoup some of the pitching depth they've lost in the Goldschmidt trade (Arrighetti is currently at AAA). This deadline costs the Twins four of their top-15 prospects, a AAAA starter, their fourth OF, and an unranked lottery ticket. The Twins have acquired a top-20 pitching prospect, a rental lefty reliever, an elite setup man, and a reigning MVP. Here's how the Twins will look after the trades (and when fully healthy): Lineup: 1: SS Carlos Correa 2: 1B Paul Goldschmidt 3: 2B Jorge Polanco 4: LF Alex Kirilloff 5: DH Byron Buxton 6: 3B Royce Lewis 7: RF Max Kepler 8: C Ryan Jeffers 9: CF Michael A Taylor Bench: 2C: Christian Vazquez INF: Kyle Farmer INF: Donovan Solano 4OF: Willi Castro Starting Staff: 1P: Pablo Lopez 2P: Sonny Gray 3P: Joe Ryan 4P: Kenta Maeda 5P: Bailey Ober Bullpen: MR: Emilio Pagan MR: Jorge Lopez MR: Jovani Moran SU: Brent Suter SU: Kendal Graveman SU: Brock Stewart SU: Griffin Jax CL: Jhoan Duan Overall, I think this is going to be similar to the way the deadline will shakeout. They will use their depth (especially in the outfield) to keep the farm system around the middle of the pack and go after a top bat to help ignite the offense. The Twins acquire a couple of bullpen arms to keep the options plentiful for Rocco and Pete down the stretch (hopefully Jorge Lopez can rejoin the leverage corps) and they try to look for guys with an extra year of control. I don't anticipate that they'll go after starting pitching, unless they acquire a fix-it arm like Steven Matz or Jack Flaherty in a Goldschmidt deal (or multiple members of the rotation get injured). This Twins team has the potential to be a terrific postseason team on the back of their incredible starters, and adding a player like Goldschmidt could give the Twins lineup the experience and production they lack.