Ted Wiedmann

The St. Louis Cardinals non-tendered their once top prospect; since then, there has been little news regarding Alex Reyes. The former all-star has seen a lack of reported interest so far in free agency and could be a fit for any team looking for relief help, meaning every team. There are several reasons to and not to sign Alex Reyes. I want to examine his current outlook to see if he is a fit for the Minnesota Twins. 
Feature Image Via Jeff Curry - USA Today Sports 
The first thing you notice about Alex Reyes when you look at his career is injuries, injuries, injuries. And more injuries. Health has not been a blessing Reyes’ has received in his career and was likely the reason the Cardinals gave up on him. Reyes crossed the 20-inning threshold just twice in his career, in 2016 and 2021. Most recently, he missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder injury. His injuries prior to 2021 didn’t seem to impact his stuff much, but every injury is different. It is unknown whether or not he can be the same pitcher he was two years ago. Given his health track record, it is more likely he doesn’t pitch at all than he gives you innings, and it is very valid that teams are concerned about this. 
The other major concern with Alex Reyes is his control. His raw stuff can compare with the best in baseball but where it’s going is a different story. In his lone full season in 2021, he had the second-highest BB% and second-highest BB/9 in all of baseball. He also had 10 wild pitches in 2021, which would have ranked fifth among qualified starting pitchers. Alex Reyes, a reliever, pitched over 100 fewer innings than his counterparts in that category. His command issues track back to his early minor league days, so it’s likely this problem never goes away. 
So what about the good stuff? He walks everyone, and we have one season to base our entire case to bring him in; what’s the upside? As mentioned before, Reyes was an all-star in 2021, and for good reason. According to Baseball Savant, he was 95th percentile in xBA, 94th percentile in xSLG, 91st percentile in Barrel%, 95th percentile in whiff%, and 87th percentile in K%. Reyes is effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters as well. Versus lefties, he had a .155 batting average against and a 26.9% K%; versus righties, he had a .195 batting average against and a 33.1 K%. He served as the Cardinals’ primary closer and recorded 29 saves for a team that won 90 games.
His fastball routinely crests triple digits, but I want to focus on his best pitch, his slider. Reyes has maybe the best slider in all of baseball. In 2021, among pitchers with 100 PA against, his slider generated the lowest RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches*) in all of baseball at -3.8, just ahead of Jacob deGrom. It finished top ten in batting average against (3rd .089), SLG against (9th .222), wOBA against (7th .196), swing and miss% (2nd 55.8%), and K% (2nd 56.9%). This is one of the most devastating pitches in all of baseball. 
Alex Reyes is about as big of a risk as you can take on a player. With his persistent command issues and colossal injury history, this could blow up as much as any reliever signing could (shoutout Joel Zumaya). Fortunately, Reyes isn’t set to make much, his arbitration projection, according to MLB Trade Rumors, was just under three million, so a one-year deal for two to three million would make sense. If the Twins were to pull this off, they would likely have a second-year option attached to it. Reyes might have the best stuff out of any Twins reliever, including Jhoan Duran. If Alex Reyes can stay healthy, he could be one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball. 
 
*Run Value: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/run-values-by-pitch-count
 
 
 

The St. Louis Cardinals non-tendered their once top prospect; since then, there has been little news regarding Alex Reyes. The former all-star has seen a lack of reported interest so far in free agency and could be a fit for any team looking for relief help, meaning every team. There are several reasons to and not to sign Alex Reyes. I want to examine his current outlook to see if he is a fit for the Minnesota Twins. 
Feature Image Via Jeff Curry - USA Today Sports 
The first thing you notice about Alex Reyes when you look at his career is injuries, injuries, injuries. And more injuries. Health has not been a blessing Reyes’ has received in his career and was likely the reason the Cardinals gave up on him. Reyes crossed the 20-inning threshold just twice in his career, in 2016 and 2021. Most recently, he missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder injury. His injuries prior to 2021 didn’t seem to impact his stuff much, but every injury is different. It is unknown whether or not he can be the same pitcher he was two years ago. Given his health track record, it is more likely he doesn’t pitch at all than he gives you innings, and it is very valid that teams are concerned about this. 
The other major concern with Alex Reyes is his control. His raw stuff can compare with the best in baseball but where it’s going is a different story. In his lone full season in 2021, he had the second-highest BB% and second-highest BB/9 in all of baseball. He also had 10 wild pitches in 2021, which would have ranked fifth among qualified starting pitchers. Alex Reyes, a reliever, pitched over 100 fewer innings than his counterparts in that category. His command issues track back to his early minor league days, so it’s likely this problem never goes away. 
So what about the good stuff? He walks everyone, and we have one season to base our entire case to bring him in; what’s the upside? As mentioned before, Reyes was an all-star in 2021, and for good reason. According to Baseball Savant, he was 95th percentile in xBA, 94th percentile in xSLG, 91st percentile in Barrel%, 95th percentile in whiff%, and 87th percentile in K%. Reyes is effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters as well. Versus lefties, he had a .155 batting average against and a 26.9% K%; versus righties, he had a .195 batting average against and a 33.1 K%. He served as the Cardinals’ primary closer and recorded 29 saves for a team that won 90 games.
His fastball routinely crests triple digits, but I want to focus on his best pitch, his slider. Reyes has maybe the best slider in all of baseball. In 2021, among pitchers with 100 PA against, his slider generated the lowest RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches*) in all of baseball at -3.8, just ahead of Jacob deGrom. It finished top ten in batting average against (3rd .089), SLG against (9th .222), wOBA against (7th .196), swing and miss% (2nd 55.8%), and K% (2nd 56.9%). This is one of the most devastating pitches in all of baseball. 
Alex Reyes is about as big of a risk as you can take on a player. With his persistent command issues and colossal injury history, this could blow up as much as any reliever signing could (shoutout Joel Zumaya). Fortunately, Reyes isn’t set to make much, his arbitration projection, according to MLB Trade Rumors, was just under three million, so a one-year deal for two to three million would make sense. If the Twins were to pull this off, they would likely have a second-year option attached to it. Reyes might have the best stuff out of any Twins reliever, including Jhoan Duran. If Alex Reyes can stay healthy, he could be one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball. 
 
*Run Value: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/run-values-by-pitch-count
 
 
 

The St. Louis Cardinals non-tendered their once top prospect; since then, there has been little news regarding Alex Reyes. The former all-star has seen a lack of reported interest so far in free agency and could be a fit for any team looking for relief help, meaning every team. There are several reasons to and not to sign Alex Reyes. I want to examine his current outlook to see if he is a fit for the Minnesota Twins. 
Feature Image Via Jeff Curry - USA Today Sports 
The first thing you notice about Alex Reyes when you look at his career is injuries, injuries, injuries. And more injuries. Health has not been a blessing Reyes’ has received in his career and was likely the reason the Cardinals gave up on him. Reyes crossed the 20-inning threshold just twice in his career, in 2016 and 2021. Most recently, he missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder injury. His injuries prior to 2021 didn’t seem to impact his stuff much, but every injury is different. It is unknown whether or not he can be the same pitcher he was two years ago. Given his health track record, it is more likely he doesn’t pitch at all than he gives you innings, and it is very valid that teams are concerned about this. 
The other major concern with Alex Reyes is his control. His raw stuff can compare with the best in baseball but where it’s going is a different story. In his lone full season in 2021, he had the second-highest BB% and second-highest BB/9 in all of baseball. He also had 10 wild pitches in 2021, which would have ranked fifth among qualified starting pitchers. Alex Reyes, a reliever, pitched over 100 fewer innings than his counterparts in that category. His command issues track back to his early minor league days, so it’s likely this problem never goes away. 
So what about the good stuff? He walks everyone, and we have one season to base our entire case to bring him in; what’s the upside? As mentioned before, Reyes was an all-star in 2021, and for good reason. According to Baseball Savant, he was 95th percentile in xBA, 94th percentile in xSLG, 91st percentile in Barrel%, 95th percentile in whiff%, and 87th percentile in K%. Reyes is effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters as well. Versus lefties, he had a .155 batting average against and a 26.9% K%; versus righties, he had a .195 batting average against and a 33.1 K%. He served as the Cardinals’ primary closer and recorded 29 saves for a team that won 90 games.
His fastball routinely crests triple digits, but I want to focus on his best pitch, his slider. Reyes has maybe the best slider in all of baseball. In 2021, among pitchers with 100 PA against, his slider generated the lowest RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches*) in all of baseball at -3.8, just ahead of Jacob deGrom. It finished top ten in batting average against (3rd .089), SLG against (9th .222), wOBA against (7th .196), swing and miss% (2nd 55.8%), and K% (2nd 56.9%). This is one of the most devastating pitches in all of baseball. 
Alex Reyes is about as big of a risk as you can take on a player. With his persistent command issues and colossal injury history, this could blow up as much as any reliever signing could (shoutout Joel Zumaya). Fortunately, Reyes isn’t set to make much, his arbitration projection, according to MLB Trade Rumors, was just under three million, so a one-year deal for two to three million would make sense. If the Twins were to pull this off, they would likely have a second-year option attached to it. Reyes might have the best stuff out of any Twins reliever, including Jhoan Duran. If Alex Reyes can stay healthy, he could be one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball. 
 
*Run Value: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/run-values-by-pitch-count
 
 
 

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

Numbers, numbers, numbers, they dictate everything in baseball today. What pitch, how far a runner takes his lead, and everything in between is controlled by analytics and NUMBERS. This makes modern-day baseball the perfect medium for a manager like Rocco Baldelli.
Scenario time. It's the 6th inning, the score is 3-0, and the starter is at 75 pitches. However, the opposing leadoff hitter is now walking toward home plate for the 3rd time of the day. Baldelli discreetly puts a finger to his earpiece as a mysterious voice tells him, "Do it…." He lifts his finger from his ear, spits out his bubblegum, and slowly walks to the pitcher's mound. The starting pitcher's day is over. Derek Falvey can be seen grinning ear to ear.
This scenario plays out across baseball, not just in Minnesota. There are many other examples like it, but the 3rd trip starter yank is the perfect showing of how analytics drive every decision in baseball. You don't have to like it, hell it infuriates me, but it is not changing any time soon, so why fight it? Instead, let us enjoy having Mr. Baldelli as the Twins' manager for as long as possible.
Baldelli is only 41 years old, and it was not too long ago he was running around center field in Tampa and ripping doubles into the gap. Going so quickly from retirement to management makes him the perfect player's manager. His job is to be laid back, allow his players to do what they need to, say the right thing to the media, and tell the replay booth to F-off occasionally.
The Twins hired him, with that being the expectation. They wanted a manager to gel with the players and serve as a pseudo interpreter/boxing bag between the front office and the media. Someone that would not be rattled by media pushback on their new style of play. That is all his job is, and it is all it needs to be, and it is perfect for modern baseball, where 99% of decisions are coming from the iPad anyway. He is the perfect guy to not get in the way of the players.
The polar opposite can be seen with the absurd hiring of Tony La Russa by the White Sox. For some inexplicable reason, that organization thought it was a good idea to resurrect a corpse to manage one of the youngest and most talented teams in baseball. It did not go well.
Somehow, a no-doubt Hall of Fame manager and an elite level of youth and talent came together to create losing baseball. It wasn't a coincidence that when La Russa had to take a medical leave last year, the team immediately started winning.
Yes, the Sox had some critical injuries, but in today's game, an old-school manager who makes great 'gut feeling' decisions is not what young players vibe with (Dusty Baker is GOAT and an exception). Young players want a manager like Rocco. Someone just old enough to listen to and respect but young enough to have perspective and understand what it's like on the player side of a clubhouse. He is akin to a tuxedo t-shirt. It says, "I can be serious, but I'm here to party."
Next time you feel like losing your mind at Rocco for yanking your favorite Twins starter, remember this. That is not his decision alone and is a product of the current regime. It does not matter whose butt Falvey/Levine have their hand up; someone will be their puppet. Let it be Rocco. By traditional standards, he could be better, but by the new standard, he is perfectly fine. That is what makes him great.

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

The Minnesota Twins recently signed Willi Castro to a minor league contract. He will not be the opening day shortstop, he likely won’t make the team, and in a perfect world, he probably never sees the Big Leagues in 2023. Having experienced a very not perfect 2022, Castro provides depth in several positions and has some intriguing skills worth noting. While digging, I found some interesting things about Castro that I would like to share and found him a more familiar player than I initially thought. 
Feature Image via Tom Hagerty
So far in his career, Willi Castro has not been a very productive Major League Baseball player. Through just over 300 games and 1,000 plate appearances, he is slashing .245/.292/.381 (.673 OPS) with a 4.7% BB%, 24.1% K%, 86 wRC+, and -22 total DRS (defensive runs saved) at six different positions through 2,338 innings and 1.6 fWAR. Not to be redundant, but he has been relatively unimpressive so far, hence why he was DFA’d from the Detroit Tigers and could only land a minor league contract. 
So why would the Twins invest? For starters, minor league contracts carry almost zero risk, meaning if the Twins cut him halfway through the season, there are no negative consequences. Castro is a switch hitter who has been significantly better against left-handed pitching (career .711 OPS vs. LHP - .658 OPS vs. RHP). The Twins have been searching for more effective bats against left-handed pitchers, and he has Major League experience at six positions: 2B, SS, 3B, and all three outfield spots. In addition, Castro also has some eye-catching athleticism metrics. Per Statcast, his max exit velocity for his career is 115.4 MPH, which was the 95th percentile in 2021. Statcast registered his sprint speed in 2022 as the 78th percentile, and his arm strength scored in the 87th percentile, with his hardest throw hitting 97.0 MPH. 
Can you think of any Twins players that sound familiar to Willi Castro? 
The player that came to my mind is Danny Santana. Both players entered the Big Leagues with a bang, but their teams eventually moved on after both players failed to repeat their hot start. Santana bounced around in the Minor Leagues and resurfaced as a utility man with another breakout season in 2019 but was largely unproductive outside 2014 and 2019. Castro was exceptional in 2020 but has been relatively unproductive since and is following Santana’s footsteps by trying to survive in the Majors as a utility man. He logged about 800 more plate appearances than Castro, but their career numbers are similar in certain areas. 
Here are some statistics that are very close for Castro and Santana:
(Castro)  (Santana) 
OBP: .292  .296
BB%: 4.7%  4.8%
K%: 24.1%  25.6%
wRC+: 86  85
xwOBA (League avg .316): .296  .290
Z-Swing % (League avg 66.9%): 75.0%  74.5% 
O-Swing% % (League avg 28.4%): 39.8%  36.9%
Swing % (League avg 47.1%): 56.7%  55.3%
Whiff % (League avg 24.7%): 29.2%  29.7%
DRS at SS: -13 (696 Innings)  -15 (918 Innings)
Sprint Speed: 78th percentile (2022)  74th percentile (2021) 
Arm Strength: 87th percentile (2022)  96th percentile (2021)
What stands out about these numbers? The similarities between the two players are plate discipline and bat-to-ball ability. These players are free-swinging, low-walk, medium strikeout hitters with good raw power that hasn’t entirely translated into game power, likely due to plate discipline or approach reasons. They also compare similarly as athletes and defensively at shortstop. 
So how do they differ as players? Castro and Santana utilize their athleticism quite differently. Santana, throughout his career, has two different 20 stolen base seasons and has a 75/101 (74.3% success rate); Castro has only stolen 18 bases and is 18/28 (64.2% success rate) in his career. Santana also hit for a little more power than Castro has so far; Santana’s career SLG is .413, Castro at .381 with ISO (SLG minus BA, league avg .183) saying the same; Santana at .159 and Castro at .136. Castro has had his athletic abilities translate more to the defensive side of the ball. While neither player stuck at SS, Willi Castro has turned himself into a viable defensive option in the outfield, something Santana never quite got to. DRS (0), UZR (0.1), and OAA (-1) all agree that through 724 innings, Castro is about a league-average outfielder. They are less conclusive on Santana but overall are low, totaling 1945 innings, with DRS having him at -7, UZR at -1.1, and OAA at 1. 
This move by the Twins carries a negative undertone due to how the offseason has been going so far but try not to let their failure in one area (or player) affect your judgment of Castro. He has some very tantalizing physical tools as well as spurts of success in the Major Leagues, not to mention Detroit is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. A deal with this kind of upside on a minor league contract is good for the Twins. While praising this signing seems contradictory because ideally, he never leaves St. Paul, we will likely see Castro at some point due to his versatility and the inevitability of injuries. Whether or not you are a fan of this move, I hope this nugget was interesting to you in some manner and I look forward to reading your thoughts on Willi Castro.
 
Links and Definitions for some lesser known statistics: 
xwOBA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba
wRC+:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-runs-created-plus
Z-Swing%, O-Swing%: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/plate-discipline/
Whiff %: total swings and misses/total swings 
DRS: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/
UZR:https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/
OAA:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average
 

The Minnesota Twins recently signed Willi Castro to a minor league contract. He will not be the opening day shortstop, he likely won’t make the team, and in a perfect world, he probably never sees the Big Leagues in 2023. Having experienced a very not perfect 2022, Castro provides depth in several positions and has some intriguing skills worth noting. While digging, I found some interesting things about Castro that I would like to share and found him a more familiar player than I initially thought. 
Feature Image via Tom Hagerty
So far in his career, Willi Castro has not been a very productive Major League Baseball player. Through just over 300 games and 1,000 plate appearances, he is slashing .245/.292/.381 (.673 OPS) with a 4.7% BB%, 24.1% K%, 86 wRC+, and -22 total DRS (defensive runs saved) at six different positions through 2,338 innings and 1.6 fWAR. Not to be redundant, but he has been relatively unimpressive so far, hence why he was DFA’d from the Detroit Tigers and could only land a minor league contract. 
So why would the Twins invest? For starters, minor league contracts carry almost zero risk, meaning if the Twins cut him halfway through the season, there are no negative consequences. Castro is a switch hitter who has been significantly better against left-handed pitching (career .711 OPS vs. LHP - .658 OPS vs. RHP). The Twins have been searching for more effective bats against left-handed pitchers, and he has Major League experience at six positions: 2B, SS, 3B, and all three outfield spots. In addition, Castro also has some eye-catching athleticism metrics. Per Statcast, his max exit velocity for his career is 115.4 MPH, which was the 95th percentile in 2021. Statcast registered his sprint speed in 2022 as the 78th percentile, and his arm strength scored in the 87th percentile, with his hardest throw hitting 97.0 MPH. 
Can you think of any Twins players that sound familiar to Willi Castro? 
The player that came to my mind is Danny Santana. Both players entered the Big Leagues with a bang, but their teams eventually moved on after both players failed to repeat their hot start. Santana bounced around in the Minor Leagues and resurfaced as a utility man with another breakout season in 2019 but was largely unproductive outside 2014 and 2019. Castro was exceptional in 2020 but has been relatively unproductive since and is following Santana’s footsteps by trying to survive in the Majors as a utility man. He logged about 800 more plate appearances than Castro, but their career numbers are similar in certain areas. 
Here are some statistics that are very close for Castro and Santana:
(Castro)  (Santana) 
OBP: .292  .296
BB%: 4.7%  4.8%
K%: 24.1%  25.6%
wRC+: 86  85
xwOBA (League avg .316): .296  .290
Z-Swing % (League avg 66.9%): 75.0%  74.5% 
O-Swing% % (League avg 28.4%): 39.8%  36.9%
Swing % (League avg 47.1%): 56.7%  55.3%
Whiff % (League avg 24.7%): 29.2%  29.7%
DRS at SS: -13 (696 Innings)  -15 (918 Innings)
Sprint Speed: 78th percentile (2022)  74th percentile (2021) 
Arm Strength: 87th percentile (2022)  96th percentile (2021)
What stands out about these numbers? The similarities between the two players are plate discipline and bat-to-ball ability. These players are free-swinging, low-walk, medium strikeout hitters with good raw power that hasn’t entirely translated into game power, likely due to plate discipline or approach reasons. They also compare similarly as athletes and defensively at shortstop. 
So how do they differ as players? Castro and Santana utilize their athleticism quite differently. Santana, throughout his career, has two different 20 stolen base seasons and has a 75/101 (74.3% success rate); Castro has only stolen 18 bases and is 18/28 (64.2% success rate) in his career. Santana also hit for a little more power than Castro has so far; Santana’s career SLG is .413, Castro at .381 with ISO (SLG minus BA, league avg .183) saying the same; Santana at .159 and Castro at .136. Castro has had his athletic abilities translate more to the defensive side of the ball. While neither player stuck at SS, Willi Castro has turned himself into a viable defensive option in the outfield, something Santana never quite got to. DRS (0), UZR (0.1), and OAA (-1) all agree that through 724 innings, Castro is about a league-average outfielder. They are less conclusive on Santana but overall are low, totaling 1945 innings, with DRS having him at -7, UZR at -1.1, and OAA at 1. 
This move by the Twins carries a negative undertone due to how the offseason has been going so far but try not to let their failure in one area (or player) affect your judgment of Castro. He has some very tantalizing physical tools as well as spurts of success in the Major Leagues, not to mention Detroit is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. A deal with this kind of upside on a minor league contract is good for the Twins. While praising this signing seems contradictory because ideally, he never leaves St. Paul, we will likely see Castro at some point due to his versatility and the inevitability of injuries. Whether or not you are a fan of this move, I hope this nugget was interesting to you in some manner and I look forward to reading your thoughts on Willi Castro.
 
Links and Definitions for some lesser known statistics: 
xwOBA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba
wRC+:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-runs-created-plus
Z-Swing%, O-Swing%: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/plate-discipline/
Whiff %: total swings and misses/total swings 
DRS: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/
UZR:https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/
OAA:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average
 

In my previous piece I talked about how Alex Kirilloff may fit into the Minnesota Twins’ long term plans and what his outlook could be in the Major Leagues. For this article I want to look at the Twins other touted corner outfield prospect, one who has spent much of his professional career being compared to Kirilloff; Trevor Larnach. 
Trevor Larnach is another player the Twins likely view as a core piece as they build for 2023 and beyond. Making a name for himself for his refined approach and raw power, Larnach found himself a top 50 prospect in all of baseball and as high as no. 34 on Fangraphs; with some sites ranking him even higher than Alex Kirilloff. It took Larnach only 183 minor league games to get called up to the Majors in 2021 where he showed flashes of that power and developed approach before injury issues started to affect his production; he was ultimately sent down to AAA. 2022 was a similar story for Larnach as he once again had some very encouraging moments before an abdominal injury ended his season in late June. 
As stated in my previous piece, injuries have a high variance and almost no predictability so I won’t spend much time on them for a future outlook of a player. Although they have been present in Larnach’s career so far their unstable nature offers little help if you are trying to guess a player’s future. 
Between 2021 and 2022 Larnach has played almost a full season of games, 130 to be exact. It’s not a huge sample but more to work with than some other Twins prospects, so let’s see what we can find when we dig into it. Through 481 plate appearances Larnach is slashing .226/.316/.371 with 12 home runs, 46 RBI, 95 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR. Nothing to brag about but solid production to this point. 
I probably should’ve addressed the title of the article by now but I tend to tangent. In my opinion, Trevor Larnach has a career outlook very similar to Joey Gallo, who the Twins just recently signed. While not as extreme of a three true outcome player, I think there are undeniable parallels in their games that we cannot ignore. 
 
Let’s compare some numbers shall we? 
 
Larnach: .226/.316/.371, 10.2% BB%, 33.5% K%, 95 wRC+, 12 DRS/1,000 innings, 2.1 fWAR/162
Gallo: .199/.325/.469, 14.8% BB%, 37.3% K%, 110 wRC+, 10 DRS/ 1,000 innings  3.2 fWAR/162 
It’s not a perfect match on the surface but when we dig a little deeper the numbers get even more similar. 
 
Batted ball data (per Statcast)
 
Larnach: 116 MPH Max exit velocity, 90.0 avg EV, 42.2% hard hit%, 35.4 SwSp% (ball with a batted launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees) 
Gallo: 117.5 MPH Max exit velocity, 92.5 avg EV, 49.1% hard hit%, 33.3 SwSp%
 
But wait there’s more! Let’s look at their plate discipline numbers:
 
Larnach: 62.3% Z-Swing%, 73.1 Z-Contact%, 25.1 Chase%, 31.7% Chase Contact%, 43.0% Swing%, 39.4% Whiff%
Gallo: 69.3% Z-Swing, 67.5% Z-Contact, 24.8% Chase%, 37.1% Chase Contact%, 45.0% Swing%, 41.2% Whiff% 
 
It’s important to remember that we are still comparing a very small sample of Trevor Larnach to a very large sample of Joey Gallo so in a year or two this could look ridiculous. However, that being said, when I see the career numbers of both Gallo and Larnach they look like very similar players. They both have tremendous raw power combined with good plate discipline and they both are extremely prone to swing and miss. While Larnach has yet to prove he is capable of batted balls turning into extra base hits (.371 career SLG), he has shown in his young career he consistently finds the barrel and hits the ball hard when he does make contact. Larnach is also a considerably worse athlete than Gallo and is unlikely to provide the defensive or base running upside that Gallo does. However, Larnach is, as traditionalists like to say, a more “pure hitter” than Gallo. His pull% 6.1% lower than Gallo’s and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .331; Joey Gallo’s career BABIP is .257 making it likely that Larnach will hit for a much higher average. 
It may not be a perfect one for one comparison between two players, but I think there are enough similarities in Trevor Larnach’s game to Joey Gallo’s that it was noteworthy. I doubt Larnach will ever reach the extremes that Gallo has normalized in his career so if you are not a fan of Gallo I wouldn’t worry too much, I believe there are aspects of Larnach’s play that will prevent him from reaching those anomic heights. What do you think of Trevor Larnach? Is my comparison accurate or am I way off base on this one? Let me know what you think.
 

In my previous piece I talked about how Alex Kirilloff may fit into the Minnesota Twins’ long term plans and what his outlook could be in the Major Leagues. For this article I want to look at the Twins other touted corner outfield prospect, one who has spent much of his professional career being compared to Kirilloff; Trevor Larnach. 
Trevor Larnach is another player the Twins likely view as a core piece as they build for 2023 and beyond. Making a name for himself for his refined approach and raw power, Larnach found himself a top 50 prospect in all of baseball and as high as no. 34 on Fangraphs; with some sites ranking him even higher than Alex Kirilloff. It took Larnach only 183 minor league games to get called up to the Majors in 2021 where he showed flashes of that power and developed approach before injury issues started to affect his production; he was ultimately sent down to AAA. 2022 was a similar story for Larnach as he once again had some very encouraging moments before an abdominal injury ended his season in late June. 
As stated in my previous piece, injuries have a high variance and almost no predictability so I won’t spend much time on them for a future outlook of a player. Although they have been present in Larnach’s career so far their unstable nature offers little help if you are trying to guess a player’s future. 
Between 2021 and 2022 Larnach has played almost a full season of games, 130 to be exact. It’s not a huge sample but more to work with than some other Twins prospects, so let’s see what we can find when we dig into it. Through 481 plate appearances Larnach is slashing .226/.316/.371 with 12 home runs, 46 RBI, 95 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR. Nothing to brag about but solid production to this point. 
I probably should’ve addressed the title of the article by now but I tend to tangent. In my opinion, Trevor Larnach has a career outlook very similar to Joey Gallo, who the Twins just recently signed. While not as extreme of a three true outcome player, I think there are undeniable parallels in their games that we cannot ignore. 
 
Let’s compare some numbers shall we? 
 
Larnach: .226/.316/.371, 10.2% BB%, 33.5% K%, 95 wRC+, 12 DRS/1,000 innings, 2.1 fWAR/162
Gallo: .199/.325/.469, 14.8% BB%, 37.3% K%, 110 wRC+, 10 DRS/ 1,000 innings  3.2 fWAR/162 
It’s not a perfect match on the surface but when we dig a little deeper the numbers get even more similar. 
 
Batted ball data (per Statcast)
 
Larnach: 116 MPH Max exit velocity, 90.0 avg EV, 42.2% hard hit%, 35.4 SwSp% (ball with a batted launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees) 
Gallo: 117.5 MPH Max exit velocity, 92.5 avg EV, 49.1% hard hit%, 33.3 SwSp%
 
But wait there’s more! Let’s look at their plate discipline numbers:
 
Larnach: 62.3% Z-Swing%, 73.1 Z-Contact%, 25.1 Chase%, 31.7% Chase Contact%, 43.0% Swing%, 39.4% Whiff%
Gallo: 69.3% Z-Swing, 67.5% Z-Contact, 24.8% Chase%, 37.1% Chase Contact%, 45.0% Swing%, 41.2% Whiff% 
 
It’s important to remember that we are still comparing a very small sample of Trevor Larnach to a very large sample of Joey Gallo so in a year or two this could look ridiculous. However, that being said, when I see the career numbers of both Gallo and Larnach they look like very similar players. They both have tremendous raw power combined with good plate discipline and they both are extremely prone to swing and miss. While Larnach has yet to prove he is capable of batted balls turning into extra base hits (.371 career SLG), he has shown in his young career he consistently finds the barrel and hits the ball hard when he does make contact. Larnach is also a considerably worse athlete than Gallo and is unlikely to provide the defensive or base running upside that Gallo does. However, Larnach is, as traditionalists like to say, a more “pure hitter” than Gallo. His pull% 6.1% lower than Gallo’s and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .331; Joey Gallo’s career BABIP is .257 making it likely that Larnach will hit for a much higher average. 
It may not be a perfect one for one comparison between two players, but I think there are enough similarities in Trevor Larnach’s game to Joey Gallo’s that it was noteworthy. I doubt Larnach will ever reach the extremes that Gallo has normalized in his career so if you are not a fan of Gallo I wouldn’t worry too much, I believe there are aspects of Larnach’s play that will prevent him from reaching those anomic heights. What do you think of Trevor Larnach? Is my comparison accurate or am I way off base on this one? Let me know what you think.
 

In my previous piece I talked about how Alex Kirilloff may fit into the Minnesota Twins’ long term plans and what his outlook could be in the Major Leagues. For this article I want to look at the Twins other touted corner outfield prospect, one who has spent much of his professional career being compared to Kirilloff; Trevor Larnach. 
Trevor Larnach is another player the Twins likely view as a core piece as they build for 2023 and beyond. Making a name for himself for his refined approach and raw power, Larnach found himself a top 50 prospect in all of baseball and as high as no. 34 on Fangraphs; with some sites ranking him even higher than Alex Kirilloff. It took Larnach only 183 minor league games to get called up to the Majors in 2021 where he showed flashes of that power and developed approach before injury issues started to affect his production; he was ultimately sent down to AAA. 2022 was a similar story for Larnach as he once again had some very encouraging moments before an abdominal injury ended his season in late June. 
As stated in my previous piece, injuries have a high variance and almost no predictability so I won’t spend much time on them for a future outlook of a player. Although they have been present in Larnach’s career so far their unstable nature offers little help if you are trying to guess a player’s future. 
Between 2021 and 2022 Larnach has played almost a full season of games, 130 to be exact. It’s not a huge sample but more to work with than some other Twins prospects, so let’s see what we can find when we dig into it. Through 481 plate appearances Larnach is slashing .226/.316/.371 with 12 home runs, 46 RBI, 95 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR. Nothing to brag about but solid production to this point. 
I probably should’ve addressed the title of the article by now but I tend to tangent. In my opinion, Trevor Larnach has a career outlook very similar to Joey Gallo, who the Twins just recently signed. While not as extreme of a three true outcome player, I think there are undeniable parallels in their games that we cannot ignore. 
 
Let’s compare some numbers shall we? 
 
Larnach: .226/.316/.371, 10.2% BB%, 33.5% K%, 95 wRC+, 12 DRS/1,000 innings, 2.1 fWAR/162
Gallo: .199/.325/.469, 14.8% BB%, 37.3% K%, 110 wRC+, 10 DRS/ 1,000 innings  3.2 fWAR/162 
It’s not a perfect match on the surface but when we dig a little deeper the numbers get even more similar. 
 
Batted ball data (per Statcast)
 
Larnach: 116 MPH Max exit velocity, 90.0 avg EV, 42.2% hard hit%, 35.4 SwSp% (ball with a batted launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees) 
Gallo: 117.5 MPH Max exit velocity, 92.5 avg EV, 49.1% hard hit%, 33.3 SwSp%
 
But wait there’s more! Let’s look at their plate discipline numbers:
 
Larnach: 62.3% Z-Swing%, 73.1 Z-Contact%, 25.1 Chase%, 31.7% Chase Contact%, 43.0% Swing%, 39.4% Whiff%
Gallo: 69.3% Z-Swing, 67.5% Z-Contact, 24.8% Chase%, 37.1% Chase Contact%, 45.0% Swing%, 41.2% Whiff% 
 
It’s important to remember that we are still comparing a very small sample of Trevor Larnach to a very large sample of Joey Gallo so in a year or two this could look ridiculous. However, that being said, when I see the career numbers of both Gallo and Larnach they look like very similar players. They both have tremendous raw power combined with good plate discipline and they both are extremely prone to swing and miss. While Larnach has yet to prove he is capable of batted balls turning into extra base hits (.371 career SLG), he has shown in his young career he consistently finds the barrel and hits the ball hard when he does make contact. Larnach is also a considerably worse athlete than Gallo and is unlikely to provide the defensive or base running upside that Gallo does. However, Larnach is, as traditionalists like to say, a more “pure hitter” than Gallo. His pull% 6.1% lower than Gallo’s and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .331; Joey Gallo’s career BABIP is .257 making it likely that Larnach will hit for a much higher average. 
It may not be a perfect one for one comparison between two players, but I think there are enough similarities in Trevor Larnach’s game to Joey Gallo’s that it was noteworthy. I doubt Larnach will ever reach the extremes that Gallo has normalized in his career so if you are not a fan of Gallo I wouldn’t worry too much, I believe there are aspects of Larnach’s play that will prevent him from reaching those anomic heights. What do you think of Trevor Larnach? Is my comparison accurate or am I way off base on this one? Let me know what you think.