Ted Wiedmann

I don’t believe it has anything to do with injuries. Early in his career the coaching staff tried to have him hit ground balls and stay up the middle. It wasn’t working so he tried hitting his “own way” and I think once he has success with it he leaned further into it.

Appreciate the kind words. Credit should go to @Nick Nelson and an Alex Kirilloff disagreement

Fair enough. I guess we’ll find out

He would certainly carry value as a DH but it’s so much fun to watch him in centerfield. I would imagine the Twins plan to DH him a fair amount this upcoming season.

I think the point is more Buxton pulls the ball at a higher rate than anyone in baseball, and we have a sizable sample on that. Regardless of the batted ball type I think the defense not being able to position themselves accordingly is likely to help Buxton.

A number of Twins’ hitters are likely to benefit from the rule change, but the hitter most impacted by the new shift ban might not be who you think it is. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so. The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton. Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%. Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift. While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own. View full article

Gordon also placed in the 80th percentile in average EV with a 61st percentile sprint speed which will help carry his babip. Also worth noting Gordon in 2022 had a .255 wOBA against the shift and a .395 wOBA with no shift. There may be room for Gordon to improve without making improvements.

Why not platoon Gordon and Farmer at third if Miranda isn't there? Farmer is excellent against lefties and Gordon is good against righties, and they both have EXTREME splits

For his career Gordon has a 112 OPS+ vs. righties, even with regression he should still be a league average bat, my point is if we hit an injury situation there's no reason Farmer and Gordon can't platoon third base, at least until Gordon wants to stop hitting. I think Gordon's arm is fine and the range needed for third is quite a bit less than up the middle, so even if he's struggled in the infield he might be a better fit at 3B than SS or 2B

Farmer’s career numbers R/R: .241/.297/.353 that cannot be an everyday third baseman if the Twins want to be a serious team

We don't actually disagree here, but I think you said it yourself, why play Gallo at 3B and Gordon in the OF if Gallo is such a good OF? If their defensive abilities are similar at 3B keep Gallo in the outfield. Gordon may very well be due for regression but he’ll still be better against righties than Farmer.

He’s out of options so his leash is until the Twins are ready to lose him on waivers to another team, they have prospects ready but Gordon definitely has some appealing traits

Not good, probably could’ve improved if he stuck there but since he’s such a good outfielder why move him back?

Julien doesn’t make the opening day roster unless someone gets hurt.

Gallo in 724 3B innings: -7 drs, -3.5 uzr, -2 oaa, 18 errors. You’re right to be worried about Gordon’s plate discipline, but the babip could stick stick if his exit velocities from last year continue, and those tend to be more sustainable. Maybe the Twins don’t see him as an infielder long term his best position is 2B imo. I’m not a fan of Gordon in the outfield especially with Taylor on the roster now.

The whole idea is you give Miranda days off in R/R matchups since he mashes lefties. Farmer has brutal splits versus righties so that’s why Gordon makes sense at third once every ten days or so.

If Joey Gallo could remotely handle third base he’d still be there. As for Farmer he has a career 72 wRC+ in R/R matchups, the twins would be smart to avoid those at all costs. If Miranda has to miss significant time they probably call someone up but if it’s only a short timespan to fill it wouldn’t make sense to burn an option on a prospect. That’s where Gordon makes the most sense imo. In a small sample his offensive production will greatly outweigh any defensive liability at a non premium position.

He lasted about half a season there in Texas and it wasn’t pretty

Nick Gordon has played all over the infield and outfield, but somehow only has a total of six innings at third base in his MLB career. If he's pressed into duty there, can the Twins trust him? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins have clearly emphasized building depth both on the Major League bench and in the minor leagues. However, there is potentially one position at which the Twins could be thin heading into the 2023 season. After trading Gio Urshela and Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda and Kyle Farmer are the only two players on the 40-man roster with significant Big League third-base experience. (Joey Gallo doesn't count.) Miranda figures to play every day at third, but who will man the position on off days or if an IL stint is in his future? Kyle Farmer has the defensive capability to play the hot corner, but offensively the Twins would like him to see as few at-bats against right-handed pitching as possible. Fortunately, there might be one more option for the Twins. Nick Gordon is no stranger to being thrust into unfamiliar positions so far in his career. Coming up as a middle infielder, he was thrown in the outfield as a necessity in 2021 and 2022. The results have been mixed, but overall I think he's been passable. Could he be a left-handed hitting platoon option at third base for Minnesota, as Adam Friedman suggested? Using defensive metrics to evaluate Gordon's infield defense is tough because he hasn't played much infield in his big league career, but let's try anyways. He has played only 151 innings at shortstop and 368 innings at second base, compared to over 950 innings in the outfield. DRS (defensive runs saved) has been quite unfavorable for Gordon. For his career, he has netted -2 DRS at second base. At shortstop, he has totaled -3 DRS. OAA (outs above average) sees Gordon as an average defensive infielder registering 0 OAA at second base and shortstop. Given the small sample, these numbers will need to be taken with a grain of salt. As a prospect rising through the ranks, scouts were always doubtful about Gordon's ability to stick at shortstop due to his lack of arm strength; that might be seen as a potential problem at third base. Using Statcast's arm strength metrics, we can see how Gordon's arm compares to the rest of the league in the infield, particularly at third base. To measure arm strength, the velocity of the top 5% of throws is taken from a player to find their "average" arm strength. We will only be using Gordon's throws from second base, as throws from the outfield are entirely different than ones in the infield. At second base, Nick Gordon's arm strength is measured at 83.5 mph. At second base, 83.5 mph ranks 8th in all of baseball among players that made 100 throws at second base. At shortstop, 83.5 would have ranked 31st out of 60 players that made at least 100 throws. But to answer the question, would his arm play at third base? At third base, 83.5 mph would have been the 28th highest average velocity among 59 third baseman. He is right in the middle of the pack, but it should be noted that most players above Gordon are everyday third baseman, and most below him are utility men, like Gordon is. Statcast's arm strength measurements aren't perfect. Many variables go into the type of throws that are made at different positions along the infield that are hard to quantify in one statistic. However, it does give us an idea that if Nick Gordon needs to fill in at third base to give Jose Miranda a day off or even play in a platoon role for a short-term injury, this is a solution the Twins could pursue. Given his athleticism and metrics at second base and shortstop, range should be good enough for Gordon at third. While the arm might not be ideal, it certainly looks passable enough for Nick Gordon to expand his versatility and help the Twins at third base this season and in the future. View full article

57 wRC+ R/R last season and 72 wRC+ for his career, either way not great. Very Mike Zunino-ish...

This winter, the Twins picked up some sneaky good bats versus southpaws. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Adding a right-handed bat has been a talking point for the Minnesota Twins all off-season. They somewhat addressed it by trading for Michael A Taylor, who hits right-handed but doesn't hit left-handed pitching exceptionally. With five left-handed hitters currently on the 26-man and switch hitter Jorge Polanco being better from the left side, this might be an issue for the Twins. Fortunately, I think this weakness might be overstated. Of the five left-handed hitters projected to get significant playing time, only two have a clear need for a platoon partner - Nick Gordon (career 54 wRC+ vs. LHP) and Max Kepler (career 73 wRC+ vs. LHP). Of the remaining hitters, Joey Gallo was abysmal against left-handers last season (23 wRC+ in 2022) but has handled them well throughout his career (104 wRC+ vs. LHP). Both Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have even splits between lefties and righties, albeit small samples. The Twins should see if either former top prospect can hit southpaws at the Major League level before condemning them to platoon roles. Given some big-time moves this off-season, it would be easy to forget the Twins' first acquisition, Kyle Farmer. Perhaps it was undersold as a skill, but Farmer is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitchers. In 2022, per FanGraphs, among hitters with 150 plate appearances versus left-handers, Farmer ranked 13th with a 157 wRC+ (ahead of Trea Turner, whom Tony La Russa intentionally walked in a 1-2 count vs. a lefty), 7th with a .948 OPS, 7th in wOBA at .404, and 9th in batting average at .309. There is a very strong case that Kyle Farmer is one of the ten best hitters in all of baseball versus left-handed pitching. So what would a potential lefty-killing lineup look like for the Twins? I mentioned that Kyle Farmer might be a top 10 hitter against lefties, but they also have two other hitters on that list in Byron Buxton (159 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022) and Carlos Correa (168 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022). If he had enough plate appearances, Ryan Jeffers would also be on there (161wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022). Against a left-handed starter, a potential lineup could be: Byron Buxton CF 159 wRC+ vs. LHP Carlos Correa SS 168 wRC+ vs. LHP Kyle Farmer 2B 157 wRC+ vs. LHP Jose Miranda 3B 132 wRC+ vs. LHP Alex Kirilloff 1B 99 wRC+ vs. LHP (career) Ryan Jeffers DH 161 wRC+ vs. LHP Joey Gallo RF 104 wRC+ vs. LHP Christian Vazquez C 130 wRC+ vs. LHP Trevor Larnach LF 108 wRC+ vs. LHP (career) The Twins' front office has also stated Farmer could see some time in the outfield. You could sub out either corner outfielder for Jorge Polanco (career 93 wRC+ vs. LHP), move Farmer to the outfield, and move Polanco to 2B. Michael A Taylor was also left off this lineup but figures to see most of his plate appearances against lefties. If the Twins wanted to DH Buxton or not have two catchers in the lineup, Taylor slides into CF. Taylor could also play in either corner outfield spot and spell any left-handed bats in the lineup. He would be a one-for-one swap in either LF or RF, but if Kirilloff needs a rest day, Gallo can cover 1B for that day. If things start to fall apart, the Twins also have Kyle Garlick stashed in AAA, who's made a name for himself mashing lefties. The front office certainly thought that a right-handed bat would be useful, being mentioned with names like Yuli Gurriel, A.J. Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen . Still, I feel good about the current roster construction's ability to hit left-handed pitching and don't see this as something that needs to be addressed. View full article

They’re projected the 4th highest bullpen war on Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP