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josecordoba

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Everything posted by josecordoba

  1. josecordoba
    I kind of look at Parmalee like I do Hendricks/Dozier/Florimon at this point. They've done what they're going to do at Triple A. Ride them half a season and see what happens. I'm not going to be that upset if Hicks starts the Season at Triple A with either Benson or Mastroianni in Center. The Twins can't ulitmately be that concerned whether they end up with 68 Wins or 64. It really makes very little difference in the grand scheme of things.
  2. josecordoba
    Parmalee's Triple A numbers over that stretch weren't really inline with his career numbers previous. He also put up an OPS of .670 in 3/4 as many as bats at the Major League Level. Could Parmalee be a .350/.450 hitter? I suppose- I'm just skeptical that he meets this standard.
  3. josecordoba
    I'm having a hard time seeing Parmalee ever maintaining the Offensive Standard of a league average 1B of 15 percent more offensive production then league average. Is Parmalee a consistent .800 OPS guy? I'm skeptical. If you raise the Offensive Standard to 20 percent above league average(As it is most years) then you're looking at between a .825 and .850 OPS guy. I realize some projection models tend to disagree with me.
  4. josecordoba
    The relievers are fairly expendable either way. Swarzak's the best of the bunch. Plouffe won't be sent down so it's a non-issue. Plouffe's Bill James and Oliver Projections point to a fairly average MLB 3rd Baseman. This seems right.
  5. josecordoba
    I can't comment on Ryan Pressly's ability going forward. I'm a bit unsure why Burnett, or Swarzak would be golden calfs heading into 2013. Harden and Perez are far from sure bets. If you really like this kid's arm they're should be no reason not to find a spot for him on the 25.
  6. josecordoba
    So Terry Ryan sets the Payroll? Ryan might not have Baseball Reasons for not wanting long-term Free Agent Contracts on a 65 Win Team? Whether Kevin Correria was a good signing or not I can't say. I'm also not going to scream the Sky is Falling about his contract.
  7. josecordoba
    Agree- Winning Percentages are not a great way to evaluate a MLB Manager. How many games does the Best Manager of All-Time when with Last Year's Pitching Staff? 68. I'm not saying Gardy should never be let go. I'm open to hearing more of Last One Picked's Culture argument. There can be a good case to be made for different voices/different perspectives being needed. after a certain number of years. I am just skeptical of the automatic reaction that falling off a cliff is because of Gardy.
  8. josecordoba
    1. Gardy has a much better winning percentage then Tom Kelly. Gardy also has a better winning percentage then Joe Maddon, Jim Leyland, Bruce Bochy. .Should Maddon be fired? To evaluate Managers purely on Winning Percentage is silly. BTW- Childress firing was more about lockerroom mutiny (Not a real comparable situation-that I know) 2. The Twins haven't won the World Series for 21 years. This is true. But I think it should also be stated that a successful season doesn't always end with a World Series. Making the Playoffs is a successful season. Winning 90 games is a successful season. Billy Beane has never Won a World Series, neither has Andrew Friedman nor Jon Daniels. Perhaps GM's should only be given a certain time-frame to win a World Series. I just disagree with the notion that this is the sole measure of a GM's effectiveness.
  9. josecordoba
    1. Why would you fire a GM and Manager at the Start of Spring Training? 2. If firing Gardy and Ryan will avoid 100 Losses? What's a reasonable win expectation for the talent on-hand? 3. What would be a reasonable expectation for the Twins Payroll? How many games would they then be expected to Win? 4. What about Ryan's GM Ability compared to the 00's makes you think he can't produce another winner? Did Gardy forget how to manage since winning Six Division Titles? I'm not sure if this is trolling (I don't think it is). I'm a bit confused on Ryan criticism unless one happens to blame him for the randomness of Playoff Performance. I guess the case for Gardy could be a bit blurrier (I tend to be skeptical that he's the issue). Perhaps someone could convince me otherwise. I tend to be more analytical in thinking the most reactionary position tends to be the worst. That's just me though.
  10. josecordoba
    I think one point that hasn't been made has to deal with simple probability. The Twins have had 2 Teams since they came to Minnesota with 98 Losses to get the under. The 2011 Team wasn't exactly a bastion of health. The 1982 Team didn't have Joe Mauer. Teams losing this many games isn't real common with 22 such teams in the last decade. You break the numbers down further it's more likely the Twins end up 10 games above the projection mark then 10 games below. I can't guarantee the Twins won't lose 98 games. I can see why some fans believe it's possible. I just think as a probability guy it's not the most likely scenario. These are the reasons I'd take the over.
  11. josecordoba
    I would take the over. I would be more on the fence if the number was 66.5. The problem with betting the under on a number like this is a lot of things need to really go wrong (Injuries) to lose this many games. This is why it's not real common for teams to lose 100 games. So breaking down the Twins potential record a few factors pop into my head. Things likely to get better -Starting Pitching- The Twins starters produced an ERA of 5.40 last year. Even an improvement to 5.20 in 900 Innings leads to around 3-4 more wins. Things likely to get worse -Revere, Span, and Willingham contributed 11.2 WAR. Revere and Span are gone. Willingham probably projects as more a 2-3 WAR player. Mauer might have a hard time matching his line of a .416 OBP. Morneau probably gets better. Third Base won't have Danny Valencia hanging around either. Things likely to stay the same -The Bullpen projects to me to be about what is was 21st in WAR. Guys like Burton, Perkins, and Duensing won't be as good. But there drop off will be offset by Jeff Gray not being around. Even with some Bullpen Variance this shouldn't impact the final total all that much. I see why Vegas has these numbers. I just tend to bet the over on bad teams due to good luck and random variance upward being more probable.
  12. josecordoba
    Hicks seems underrated to me. Last year- Denard Span had a .340 OBP with a .400 SLG yet was worth nearly 4 WAR according to Fangraphs due to plus defense in center along with baserunning. This seems like a realisitc baseline for Hicks.The guy whose skill-set Hicks actually reminds me of is Mike Cameron. Mike Cameron was a tremendous big league player worth over 50 WAR for his career. He was the third best position player on the 2001 Seattle Mariners.
  13. josecordoba
    Guys like Keri, Keith Law, or Dave Cameron will always point to the tremendous risk with long-term contracts at high dollar amounts even for the best of players. In Mauer's case though when the contract was signed he had 1. MVP 2. Three Batting Titles 3. 3 All-Star Games. This says nothing about him being a local product. Basically if you don't resign Joe Mauer a Hall of Fame Type Talent considering these factors there is no point in having Professional Baseball in Minnesota. The Twins will rarely come across assests with Mauer's value. Even if Sano or Buxton are perennial MVP Candidates they won't be able to match Mauer's Drawing Power.
  14. josecordoba
    I'm skeptical that if he's 235-240 at 19. He'll end up at Third Base. I would question whether it's really a good goal considering his greatest asset is going to be his power. My hope is that he moves well enough to have passable range in RF since one of his best assets is his arm. Mike Stanton seems to hold up at 245-250 quite well. This would seem to be a reasonable comp for Sano as far as body type. .
  15. josecordoba
    I'm really a fan of Hicks. A career 9-12% walk rate plus plus defense in Center Field. Span last year was a 3.9 WAR player, Revere a 3.4 WAR Player. Hicks seems to be to be a pretty decent bet to be a 4 WAR player. This will make him a Top Ten Player in CF. This is assuming a .350 OBP. If Hicks has a .375 OBP- He's an All-Star. If Hicks could have a OBP near .400-He's a MVP Candidate. I realize this isn't the most likely outcome. But Hicks skill-set really has me excited. I get the wisdom in keeping Hicks down in a probable 90 Loss Season. At the same time- other posters are right that he's the type of player (You shell out a big contract).
  16. josecordoba
    You make a fair point- I do wonder if it's possible that Ryan doesn't care to shed insight into their process.
  17. josecordoba
    Pitchers can do improve and supplement their skill-set all the time. Pitchers lose velocity then remake themselves. Pitchers get better with certain pitches. The Twins must feel their is something here that hasn't reflected itself yet in the numbers. The main point is the Twins reached their conclusion based on information not available to Phil Mackey or Ourselves.
  18. josecordoba
    I'll defend Terry Ryan here. Teams are getting more aware/advanced with stats all the time. Even the Stats that Smart Baseball Fans tend to reference such as xFIP tend to pale in comparsion to the resources for a major league team. Scouting will be able to create more of a Market Inefficiency overtime. I'll hold out to the possibility there are things about Kevin Correria I can't grasp looking at stats. Could there be bad luck where he hits his spots? I can't say for certain. I fully realize that this post might look stupid by the 1st of May. I just get frustrated when people assumes that General Managers go into anything with a reckless thought process.
  19. josecordoba
    I would define a league average 3B as between 2 to 3 WAR. If Plouffe puts up his projected numbers according to Fangraphs and Bill James he falls on the short end of the stick. Although according to Fangraphs he's projected as a 1.9. I think it's somewhat possible he outperforms these numbers especially since he had a .600 Plus slugging percentage at Triple A in 2011. I can't comment on how much his wrist effected him but he has developed big time power. I also hold out hope as a fielder considering his background. I never expect him to be good but at least playable at third base. I figure Plouffe's long-term projection is league average starter (2-3 WAR). The Twins should be happy with this.
  20. josecordoba
    The Time-Line should be in the neighborhood of three years if things go well. The Nationals were the worst team in Baseball in 2008-2009. They were the best in 2012. The Detroit Tigers won 43 games in 2003! They made the World Series in 2006. The San Francisco Giants won 71 games in 2007, 72 games in 2008 they won the World Series in 2010. The Arizona Diamondbacks won 51 games in 2004 they advanced to the NLCS in 2007. 2016 Seems like a good goal factoring in the ETA of guys like Sano, Rosario, Buxton. The Pitching will develop ahead of the Bats but also factoring in Payroll Flexibility makes 2016 goal. These comparsions are never going to be perfect. Rebuilding the Team would mean competing for a Playoff Spot in three years. Expectations of being the Best-Team in Baseball or Winning the World Series aren't realistic. I'm not saying these outcomes are impossible they're just not a real good way to measure the success of the Twins Front-Office.
  21. josecordoba
    My Goals for 2015 1. Play .500 Ball. I believe they're probably 2 years of player development away from this goal. I see about 65-70 Wins in 2013, then 72-77 in 2014, hopefully we can get to the 79-86 to Range by 2015. 2. I hope this is the year for a Shift in Organizational Philosophy. My wish is this becomes the time where it makes sense to begin to complement the Roster in Free Agency along with trading from Organizational Strength to add Missing Pieces. When I've argued for not being that interested in Free Agent Spending at this time it has nothing to do with what the Pohlads can spend or the fans want but rather what's best from a Player Development Standpoint. While I'm not confident in Dozier or Florimon being long-term solutions I would rather find out for certain how they adjust at the Major League level then invest in Kelly Johnson. Basically the next two years- I would rather win 68 Games finding out what we have with Youngsters then trying to win 75 with Veterans who won't be around on the next good Twins Team. 3. I kind of like the idea of one of the High End College Arms in the 2013 Draft (Appel, Stanek, or Manaea) although I realize the Best Talent should win out regardless of need. I understand wanting a College Catcher I just can't see one all that profiles this high in the draft.
  22. josecordoba
    A team of replacement players would in theory win about 1/4 games (41 Games). So if a team wanted to only invest in minimum street free agents (This in theory) would be their win total on account of Random Variation. The Twins last year had 5.6 Pitching War (30th in Baseball) Along with 22.5 Hitting WAR. This makes their true talent level be somewhat in the neighborhood of 69 Wins. Teams tend to be lucky or unluckier in close games over the course of a season. An extreme variation would be someone like last year's Balitmore Orioles who tended to overperform in close games on a historic level winning 93 games in the process. It's not accurate to say 5 Million Dollars is the cost for every win. A lot of this is due to Major League Contracts being cost-controlled for the First Six Years. The figure of about 5-6 Million Dollars Per Win is what it costs to upgrade a roster in Free Agency according to Dave Cameron. For example the Dodgers signed Zack Grienke for 24.5 Million Dollars Per Season (When he's currently around a 5 WAR Pitcher). You pay for the front-end of contracts then tend to be hurt on the back end due to age related decline.
  23. josecordoba
    Livan threw 67 Innings with a FIP of 5.32 whose actual age is unknown. Pavano doesn't need to be revisited further. Millwood and Lowe were better pitchers in 2012 (I'm guessing they the Twins project these guys to decline to be worse then Kevin Correria). This can possibly be seen in their declining innings total. But you raise a good point- I'd have a hard time giving you a counter point.
  24. josecordoba
    The Twins could spend more money (I'm not disputing this). What I see the problem being if you assume the True Talent Level being between 65-70 wins. They would probably need to spend $50 Millions dollars more next year to be in the 75-80 Win Range. This assumes the cost of 1 WAR being in the 5 Million Dollar Range. They would never come close to making up this money at the Box Office. If they underachieve like the Marlins then they have a disaster. The closer to contention a team is the more valuable every win becomes. The second point has to do with Marketing the Team. I realize they would have a hard time really telling the truth about the upcoming process. The reality is the team will lose the money of Casual Fans. The marketing probably has to deal with individual greatness (Mauer), potential stars (Hicks, Arcia) along with Opponents (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels)
  25. josecordoba
    I don't disagree with your assertion. I might slightly differently intrepret these guys potential. Dozier's Minor League Stats Pre 2012 show the potential of a useful enough offensive player to have value at 2B. Florimon's value would have to be tied up in only defense (Which is possible at short). Plouffe seemed to show legitimate improvement with consistent at bats in 2011-2012. I can't promise any of these guys are good long-term options. Yet I see enough potential to see why the Twins might let them play it out in 2013.
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