josecordoba

So Houston should be currently spending big in Free Agency? I'm not opposed to Free Agency but GM's need to have a realistic evaluation of a Team's place on a win curve. If the Twins were an 80 Win Team sitting on 25 Million Dollars when it might make the difference into being an 85 win team (This is far to critique). A 70 Win Twins team not wanting to blow money on present resources in the process of building a future contender makes sense.

Few Thoughts 1. The complaint that always comes up is the Pohlads are cheap. I remember hearing this before the season. The Pohlads cheapness has nothing to do with the Team not being very good. This is a 68-70 Win Team as presently constructed. If the Twins jacked the Payroll up $25 Million you're looking at a 73-75 Win Team (Big Freaking Deal) this is a poor investment for the Pohlads. This is assuming the standard cost of a 1 War being 5 Million Dollars. Since this seems to be slightly below average this is fair for the exercise. If you jacked the Payroll up $50 Million you might be looking at a 78-80 win team. This is better from a Fan standpoint yet your ability to commit yourself financially in 2016 since jacking up the Payroll now will lead to long term commitments. Basically it's pointless for the 2013 Twins to pay for production on the Front End of Free Agent Contracts. 2. Morneau has been worth 0.5 over replacement in the last three years. The Twins have paid 40 Million Dollars for this production. This idea that they would want to give an extended shot to Parmalee or Colabello makes perfectly good sense. I applaud Morneau coming back from injury and his dedication to the Twin Cities yet he is by no means a long-term solution at 1B. 3. I'll speak about this as a fan. I went to the game on Thursday (I live about 3 1/2 hours north of the Cities). Pedro Florimon was batting 2nd. The best position player on the team Thursday was Brian Dozier( This isn't really debatable). The best starting pitcher is Deduno? Pelfrey? Correia? Basically the on-field product isn't attracting people to games in September with Morneau there or not. The good will is going to be restored when Sano posts a .500 Slugging percentage, when Arcia develops into a well-above average Major league hitter, and Byron Buxton brings his Eric Davis, Kenny Lofton, Andrew McCutchen type ju-ju to Target Field.

Few Thoughts 1. Let's assume the Twins are a 72 Win Team (Fangraphs Projections). This is factoring in a slight overachiement due to Phytagorean numbers. The reality is the team's overall talent level probably isn't worth huge expenditures in Free Agency. If one goes by the Standard assumption of 5-6 Million Dollars per 1 War. The Twins to use Free Agency to be competitive (.500) would have probably needed to increase Payroll $50-60 Million Dollars. One can't assume every Free Agent investment is going to strike gold. 2. I know nothing about this Guerrero fellow. What I can say for certain is his value might reach a point where the Twins don't consider it a prudent use of resources. Let's says the Twins project him as a 3 possible three WAR player then perhaps 15 Million Dollars could be spent on something of a surer bet.

I'm not sure if I agree with this position, but Marc Hulet mentioned last week that he would not send Buxton to the AFL. Hulet's point was to let Buxton's season end on a high note. Buxton will be making a big step up next spring to NB. Hulet thought that Buxton would be better spent resting and working out to get ready for this move.

Buxton going forward since he's begin to own the Florida State League. -Arizona Fall League in 2013? -Start Double A in 2014? -Majors in 2015?

God Bless Twins Fans! I'm guessing Top 50/75 Pitching Prospects making their Major League Debuts get quite a bit of attention in nearly any system. As far as whether Gibson only projects as a Mid-Rotation Starter? I can't say I'm not a Scout. What I can say is that even if he does project to be nothing but a Mid-Rotation Starters is that these pitchers have quite a bit of value. This is especially true with the current state of the Twins Pitching Staff.

Buxton appears to be the Youngest Hitter in the League. If Buxton has a wRC near League Average this will be a very successful season.

One of the keys for being a GM is being able to predict future performance. In retrospect the 2003 Team that Traded for Shannon Stewart despite First Half Struggles was able to see a team playing below it's talent level (they made a run and made it back to back division titles) This team has played above it's head and still isn't .500. Things could change (Arcia, Hicks, Gibson) yet even with all sorts of internal improvement (75-77 wins would seem to be the Team's Upside). I'm not sure the Twins have a lot of parts that could be moved for value. Morneau has no power, Correria isn't the type of guy you want starting in the playoffs, Hammer maybe but you would probably just get out from under his contract.

I think you're on the right track. I assumed the Twins to be about a 68 Win Team that's played enough over their head that 70-73 wins looks a bit more likely. This is about where Fangraphs projected standings place them. One thing that should be noted though is players like Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson do have the potential to make things a bit more intersting then they now appear to be. It's very possible the Twins True Talent Level towards the end of the season is around 75. Which would be a huge improvement from what it looked like months ago.

Final Line at A Ball .330/.424/.655 in 200 Plus At Bats. By far the Best Offensive Player in the Florida State League. I don't expect similar numbers at New Britain due mostly to BABIP Regression. Seems to be about 50/50 whether his 21st Birthday will be spent with the Big League Club.

I'm guessing a College Pitcher (Similar to the Bard/Melatokis) types they took last arm.

Few Thoughts 1. I've thought Buxton was the Best Twins Prospect since they drafted him. Buxton is like Mike Trout in that he impacts the game in several different areas (Base-Running, Defense, Hitting) where as Miguel Sano has one special, special tool power. Both guys have MVP Upside. 2. On the current season-Sano's numbers are somewhat inflated by BABIP of .409. Sano doesn't project as a .340 hitter in the big leagues. Sano seems to project as more of .290/.380/.570 type of guy in the bigs on a consistent basis. 3. On the Buxton-Trout Comp. Trout was Six Months younger when starting his season at Low A. In the grand scheme of things this might not seem like much (but it's noteworthy).

Can't say I'm all that upset considering Benson's production the last two years. This says nothing of him not factoring into this year's plans and unlikely to comeback in 2014. His future seemed to be as a Fourth Outfielder Type (I question whether he'd hit enough to be anything else). I get most of the frustration keeping around low upside pitchers and Back-Up Catchers. Anyone wanting to run out Terry Ryan over this type of move is overreacting in my opinion.

Sano has a .1200- OPS in the Florida State League. Buxton has a .500 OBP although he's only slugging .680. LOL.

I'm guessing that Buxton can't sustain .419/.526/.694. You almost need to see him work through a slump before moving him up to the next level. I'm not as down on Michael as others. He's shown the ability to draw a walk even as he battled through injuries. He also seems to be able to stick at SS. Considering the Offensive Standards at Shortshop in the Majors currently. I believe he could develop into a League-Average Big League Starter. This seems awfully good for a guy rated towards the bottom of an organizations Top 30 Lists.

Sano .384/.439/.740/ For a team like the Twins to have a guy that profiles as a .250-.300 Iso Guy in the bigs is quite exciting.

Thanks for these articles. I love checking Buxton and Sano's Triple Slash after every game.

What's the upside for the Present? Dave Cameron often makes the point that too often fans want to give up on the present when a few breaks here or there can make a team a contender (EX.Balitmore, Oakland in 2012). The Twins case seems to be different- Even in the best case scenario they don't contend till 2014 (Still a stretch). You get better in the present by having guys develop internally. The key is developing talent that will be part of the next good Twins Team.

Few Thoughts on Hammer 1. The issue though really shouldn't be his value in 2013. Extreme Best Case Scenario (And I Mean Extreme)- The Twins win 80 games. Trading Hammer maybe makes a difference of 5 games (A highly extreme scenario). Nothing really lost. I would think playing for 2014 even would be a bit of stretch (When Willingham's contact would expire). So the goal should be finding value for the next good Twins Team which might be 2015. If TR finds a Pitcher or Middle Infielder that looks attractive for these teams (They need to consider it) 2. The Liriano trade was criticized in some corners throughout the Twins Blogosphere. Yet the reality is Escobar looks to be the Twins Utility Guy for the Next Half-Decade where as Roberto Hernadez seems to be a 4 AAAA type pitcher. This is more value then going forward then Liriano would have offered.

Buxton triple slash- .476/.560/.714 Sano triple slash-. 389/.452/.741

Few Thoughts 1. I wouldn't be devasted if Hicks went down to Triple A. Keith Law suggested about 250 at Bats would be a good idea. I get the argument about bringing him up. I would rather be cautious in this case rather then agressive. Worse case scenario is you win 65 games with Joe Benson rather then 70 games with Aaron Hicks. 2. The deal with Liriano is Thrylos is right that he could pull a Loshe. Yet the problem is the Twins probably got all the return they were going to get for him. He was also a pending Free Agent. If Escobar or Hernadez provide any positive value over the next half-decade this trade's a win. Liriano had a long enough leash with the Twins.

Prospect Rankings should consider two things. 1. A player's upside- Here is where I would argue Buxton over Sano. Buxton has the potential to make an impact in way more areas of the game (Base-Running, Defense, Hitting) where as Sano's Tools are extreme power plus a very good arm. If one questions-Sano's ability to stay at 3rd where as expecting Buxton to remain in CF then the issue gets more complicated. I look at Sano as a Miggy/Stanton type potential hitter (Rare 80 Power). He's an awesome asset for the System. I look at Buxton's upside as higher (Andrew McCutchen/Matt Kemp). This seems to be the Baseball Prospectus/Fangraphs View. 2. The prospects ability to reach one's ceiling. I realize Sano is a safer bet here. This is why he's probably higher on most prospect boards. I remember being surprised when Keith Law said he would be hard pressed to see a case made for a prospect other then Sano. Buxton has a much greater risk of flaming out. I would rank Buxton higher. I realize that one would need Brass Balls to do a trade of Sano's Probability for Buxton's potential. One could make a valid case either way. This seems to be a choice of scouting preference.

1. I'm not in number 1. I would never be naive enough to think the Twins should jack the payroll up 40 Million Dollars to go from 67 Wins to 75 Wins. I also realize the Twins would never make up this type of revenue spent. I have sympathy for those who question moves like the Kevin Correria signing as not the best use of resources. 2. I have the most sympathy for position 2. I'm not Anti-Ryan. I would be open to arguments that the his past track-record is somewhat overrated due to a weak division along with the idea they have the same front office that led to our recent starting pitching debacles. Playoff Records are Small-Sample Size Galore. 3. Is Gardy a Joe Maddon like strategist? No-but he seems to keep the clubhouse together. I think it's silly to assume he's a radically different manager when they win 96 games versus 66 games. 4. These people are the most annoying. Mauer's durability up until 2011 was quite good. He led the league in OBP in 2012. He's projected by BBP to lead it again in 2013. I'll say again "If you don't resign a beloved hometown player with a potential Hall of Fame career ahead of him then it's time to shut down Baseball in Minnesota". Even if Mauer gives you 2 WARP the rest of the contract- the Twins had no other options.

Hicks reminds me more of Mike Cameron. Cameron has much more patience at the plate then Hunter.

1. What's the probability of Herrmann beating out Butera? Hermann has good catching ability and offers the ability to play in the Corner OF. This says nothing about Herrmann having potential to not be the worst hitter in Baseball. 2. I would guess Mastro or Benson for the 4th Outfielder. 3. I guess I don't the angle with singing Thome. A 42 Year Old DH on a 65 Win Team??? He'd probably project to be fairly decent in his role. I guess I just don't see any long term value other then leadership.