Hunter McCall

Also, for more information on how the bullpen position battle could play out, @Cody Christiewrote a great article yesterday!

Yes, this article has been queued up for about a week, so prior to Fulmer and Chafin signing.

Maybe it doesn't need any more help? Image courtesy of © Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey stated last week that, despite widespread speculation, the Twins weren't in the market for adding another relief pitcher in free agency. There are still a few quality names on the market, such as Andrew Chafin and the familiar Michael Fulmer, but for the time being, the Twins seem content rolling with the crew they have now out of the bullpen. Starting at the back end, what is the outlook for potential relievers for the Twins? Closer Jhoan Duran Like last year, I expect Rocco Baldelli to use Duran in a non-traditional closer role. This turned off many fans, but the logic is sound. Stick Duran on the opposing team's best hitters late in the game. The situation could be in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Duran was as nasty as they came in 2022, mixing top-end velocity (103 mph) with filthy off-speed stuff. After only one season, Duran has proven himself to be one of the best in baseball. On the year, Duran had a 1.86 ERA, 89 punch-outs in 67.2 innings, and produced 2.8 WAR. Duran should continue to hold down the back of the bullpen and be among the most reliable guys to toe the rubber in high-leverage situations. Set-Up Guys Jorge Lopez Lopez came over from Baltimore at the deadline in 2022 and had a disappointing second half of the year in Minnesota. 2022 was Lopez's first year in the bullpen, as he was a failed starter asked to embrace a new role. In this new role, Baltimore had themselves a dominant closer who gave them 19 saves in the first half of the season, striking out 54 hitters in 48.1 innings to the tune of a 1.68 ERA. At the time of the trade, Lopez was considered one of the best closers in baseball. It was a small sample size, but what he did was legit. Lopez is another high-velocity guy who will hit triple digits and overwhelm hitters with his filthy stuff. His problem in Minnesota was; he just walked too many batters. In just 22.2 innings with the Twins, Lopez walked 14 batters. The good news here is that the walks weren't a problem in the first half of the season, so if the Twins can make the proper adjustments to limit the walks, Lopez should be fine. With his talent, he has all the makings of being one of the best set-up men in baseball and form a nightmare 1-2 punch with Duran. Caleb Thielbar Old-reliable himself. Overcoming some early season jitters, Thielbar went on to provide another excellent season for the Twins. The 35-year-old lefty produced a 2.42 FIP on the year, showing his ability to limit walks and home runs. Thielbar will continue to be a staple in the Twins pen, often being asked to take the ball in a spot late in games where the opposing team has a couple of left-handed hitters due up. The years may come and go, but Thielbar's ability to be productive in his role will stay the same. Thielbar will continue to be a solid and reliable arm for Rocco to call on late in games. Griffin Jax Joining Duran and Lopez as starters finding a new role in the bullpen, Jax had an excellent 2022 campaign. Jax was one of the heavier-used pitchers out of the Twins bullpen, throwing 72.1 innings and sometimes asked to eat up multiple innings. Armed with a filthy slider that produced a 36.8% whiff rate, Jax finished the season with a 3.17 FIP and struck out more than a batter per inning. The success of Jax in his new role was one of the highlights of the 2022 season, and he will look to continue his growth there in 2023. Middle Relievers Jovani Moran Jovani Moran was an excellent left-handed bullpen arm in 2022. Moran was so good, and it's possible by the end of 2023, he could be asked to take on more high-leverage situations. In 2022, Moran had a 1.78 FIP and struck out 54 in 40.2 innings. At the moment, Moran is a solid left-handed middle-relief option with a ton of upside. Trevor Megill On the surface, Megill's numbers could have been more inspiring in 2022. However, there was a sizeable discrepancy between Megill's ERA (4.80) and his FIP (3.29), meaning he was a little unlucky in 2022 and is a good candidate for some positive regression in 2023. The massive Megill won't be the Twins' most reliable reliever, but he has a chance to be a solid option to eat innings in the middle of games. Emilio Pagan Sit down, take deep breaths, and relax. What I suggest next may trigger you. The Twins were absolutely right to give Pagan another shot. At the start of 2022, Pagan was the Twins' closer, which is crazy when you think about it. In those high-leverage situations, Pagan imploded. As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season. Most of his late-season work went unnoticed, as his reputation was already tarnished. In a middle relief role, Pagan has the potential to be a valuable asset to the Minnesota Twins. Pagan was, at one time, one of the best closers in the game. At 32 years old, if he can continue to fine-tune his splitter and limit the long ball, there's no reason he can't be worth the second chance. Jorge Alcala Alcala is a true wildcard. Thought to be the favorite to take over the closer job after the Twins dealt Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan last spring, Alcala suffered a season-ending elbow injury after appearing in just two games. Alcala is young and very talented. If he can return to pre-injury form, he may see more high-leverage situations. There's also the chance that Alcala losses a step and struggles. When he returns, Twins fans will have to wait to see where Alcala is. This bullpen has loads of talent and plenty of reliable arms. If guys like Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan can sure a couple of things up, which I think they will, and Jorge Alcala returns to be the fireballer he was before his surgery, this bullpen has some real potential to be a top 10 bullpen in the MLB. What are your thoughts? Should the Twins add another arm, or is the bullpen ready to roll? Let me know! View full article

Good point. It was clear he couldn't even stand by the time September rolled around! Amazing he didn't decide to retire!

It will be interesting to see how teams adjust! Will there be teams that bend the rules as far as they can to still get some semblance of a shift? You're right, we won't know until they roll the ball out there! Thank you for your comment!

Spot on assessment! I agree with everything you stated! Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Thank you! Great question as well! It was mostly because of the injuries honestly. You’re right though, I probably should’ve included a little blip. In 2021 he was actually above average at 1B. 2 OAA and 2 RAA.

Thank you for your input! I agree with your take as well. The numbers say it was mediocre, but I think positive regression comes!

I agree! There was a lot that went into the mediocre numbers last year. I think average is a good word to describe the unit. With the outfield defense as good as it is, this should be a top 10 defense.

I spent a lot of time researching this exact thing for this article and I came to one conclusion; if they are out there, they aren’t easy to find😂 I think positive regression is coming, but even if not, I don’t think the mediocre infield defense will be this teams downfall. I’m an optimist, but I think this team will be really good, and I think when the dust settles this will be a top 10 defense.

Great analysis! You’re right, there’s a lot more to the numbers than just the numbers! Thanks a bunch for this contribution!

Couldn’t agree more! Was just a topic I was interested about, so I decided to research and do an article! The results surprised me a bit. I think the Twins will be very good in 2023, and the mediocre infield defense won’t have much impact.

Thank you Sherry! I’m glad you enjoyed it!

Defensive metrics suggest the Twins’ infield defense will be a weakness this year. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins' defensive outfield should be stellar and fun to watch in 2022. With Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Michael A. Taylor all providing close to elite-level production and Trevor Larnach proving to be a solid defensive outfielder, the team shouldn't have many issues producing one of the best defensive outfields in Major League Baseball But how good is the infield defense? The Opening Day infield will likely feature Jose Miranda at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Jorge Polanco at second base, Alex Kirilloff at first base, and a backstop pairing of Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers. In this article, I will not include any data on Alex Kirilloff at first base simply because it is a new position for him, and there is very minimal data to make any assumptions on how he will perform defensively. Fielding goes far beyond just putouts and errors, so to judge how good the Twins' infield is defensively, we will look at several different stats: Outs Above Average (OAA), Runs Above Average (RAA), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Each of these stats uses a formula to dictate where a fielder sits compared to the average MLB player. If a player has a positive number in the OAA and RAA stat, they were better than average. If that number is negative, they were below average. DRS tells us how many runs that player saved with their glove. Again, if that number is positive, that is the number of runs they saved with their fielding ability in 2022. If the number is negative, they accounted for giving up that many runs over the year. If a player boots a ball with a runner on third base and that runner scores, the player doesn't automatically get -1 DRS, just as hitting a walk-off home run doesn't automatically give a player 1 WAR. All these stats are accumulated throughout every ball in play in the season. With those stats briefly explained, how did the Twins infield fair in 2022? We can start with the good news: the Twins catchers were fantastic. Christian Vazquez accounted for 11 DRS over 918 innings, and Ryan Jeffers had 4 DRS in just 496 innings. No matter who plays catcher for the Twins in 2022, they are sure to be very reliable defensively. Not to mention, both should also be above-average hitting catchers at the plate. I like what the Twins have done here with the position. The next best infield defender in 2022 was Carlos Correa. In 2021, Correa was elite at the position, compiling 12 OAA, 9 RAA, and 21 DRS on his way to winning a Gold Glove Award. To say his numbers dipped in 2022 would be quite an understatement. Last year, Correa produced -3 OAA, -2 RAA, and 3 DRS. This dramatic number dip is shocking because the eye test told us that Correa was a terrific defender in 2022. Though the numbers don't back that up, there is still a chance that Correa rebounds in 2023 and returns to at least being a solid fielder. Just two years removed from an elite-level campaign, Correa is a candidate for positive regression. However, there is also the general belief around the league that Correa will eventually move to third base. Maybe 2022 is the start of the defensive deterioration that will push him there sooner rather than later. The remaining two infielders, Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco were not good in the field in 2022. We can start with Miranda, who split time at first and third base last year. In 2022, Miranda played 595.1 innings at first base and 246.2 innings at third base. While playing first, Miranda accounted for -4 OAA and -3 RAA. At third, he was right around league average, accounting for 0 OAA and 0 RAA. Overall, Miranda produced -6 DRS on the year in his split time at both positions. Miranda is set to be the Twins full time third baseman this year, so we will get a better read on how he is at third base. If Miranda shows to be a below average fielder at third base, this will likely be his last year playing third base consistently, as I think when Royce Lewis returns, he could fit at third as a plus defender. While his numbers at first weren’t good in 2022, I think Miranda will be at least a league average defender at first baseman if given a full-time role, which would likely be where he ends up if Lewis takes over third. Miranda’s bat will continue to play, but he will need to continue to work on his glove. Polanco was not a good defender in 2022. Polanco has never been a good fielder. He was atrocious defensively at shortstop in 2019 but is also well below average at second base. Last year, Polanco had -9 OAA, -7 RAA, and -1 DRS. Polanco is another player, like Miranda, who makes his money at the plate. If Polanco can continue to provide solid production at the plate, he will provide excellent value to the Twins, especially with his team-friendly contract. However, unless he shifts his focus, Polanco will continue to be a defensive liability. "Nothing falls but raindrops" may again be the theme of the outfield as they help out their fly-ball pitchers by making spectacular web gem-type plays day in and day out, but the infield defense is flawed. Even with the infield weighing them down, I think the Twins' defense will be top 10 in 2023. There's a chance the infield will experience a bit of positive regression defensively, and the Minnesota Twins will be an all-around enjoyable defensive team to watch. View full article

Not saying you’re wrong, just informing why I personally didn’t include them!

I appreciate the comment! That one was very close too! Couldn’t go wrong with either guy! Love the pun as well😂

Thank you very much! I thought about having Gallo in right, but decided to leave Kepler there for the moment until the Twins decide otherwise. I think there is a very real possibility the Twins do switch the two though! I appreciate the comment!

MJ Melendez had a .217 BA, .706 OPS, and only produced 0.5 WAR in 2022. He's okay, but not good enough to earn a spot on this list, or even be mentioned in my opinion. As far as Andre Vaughn, he had a -0.2 WAR last year. If you can't help your team win, there's no spot for you on an all-star team. I think Vaughn will be a very good player in the future, but he isn't there right now. I appreciate the comment! This is just how I see it, and my justification for leaving those players off.

The Guardians are good, but I couldn't disagree more with this take. The front office decided to invest in top-end talent to accompany the up-and-coming young talent they have in the majors and set to hit the majors in the next couple years. Burning it down would've been a waste of a pretty talented roster. The Twins have locked up their two superstars for at least the next six years and have plenty more talent close to the majors. I will continue to take the optimistic route and choose to believe in the team I love and respect what the front office is trying to do.

As stated, I chose Vazquez because Perez has been a notoriously bad fielder. Vazquez had 11 defensive runs saved last year, which ranked him 28th in the league amongst all defensive players and 4th amongst catchers. Perez has a great bat, which is why I chose to put him in the DH category. I considered Meadows at RF, but he only played 36 games in 2022. I considered Josh Bell as well but I left him out. I probably could have given him the nod over Naylor at 1B but I chose to ride the momentum of Naylor. As for Robert, I don't think there is a realistic argument to be made to consider him anywhere near Buxton. He has been almost more injury prone than Buxton and far less productive. He's a great player, and in my mind he finishes second at center field on this list, but Buxton is just on another level. Great arguments to be made though! I appreciate the feedback!

You could make a valid argument for all of these!

As I mentioned, Vazquez is an above-average hitting catcher and one of the best fielding catchers in the league. Perez is a better hitter, but he’s known for being a defensive liability, which is why I gave the edge to Vazquez there and called Perez the best DH in the division. That was certainly the most debatable position in the division in my opinion! There’s four guys with a pretty good track record there!

As is mine. I think the Twins have a lot of players who will experience positive regression from last season, especially in the games played category. I’m not sure all the Guardian players will put up the same numbers. I think they have some really good players, but I think some of them come back to Earth a bit. The Twins also have the more aggressive front office who have shown to be willing to put their chips in the middle of the table at the deadline just as they have this offseason.