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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Are we just going to ignore Varland, Winder, Jax (selected by previous management, developed under their leadership) - Petty Hajjar and Povich who all performed well enough to be traded for good assets - Priellip is a bit of question mark although twins thnk farther along than they expected and then Matthews and Lewis are far outperforming. For the amount of capital invested in pitching in the draft, the Twins have far outperformed expectations under current managements leadership. I think the current concern is the current lack of contact by the current team. However yesterdays game, was more of an out of this world defense than anything. Easily could have had 2-3 more runs in a smaller ball park or with not elite defense in centerfield, the robbed hit of Buxton and what would have been a homer by Castro in 15 other parks.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think it is quite strong to call Clark or Jenkins a generational talent. The only generational talents are Skenes and Crews. Both would have been the number 1 picks in the last 5-6 drafts. As to Langford, he is right up there just a tad behind. Likely a 1st round pick in many of the previous 6 years. Clark and Jenkins both don't seem like can't miss prospects. Clark, not enough power, Jenkins still has some holes in his swing. Give me a more polished hitter that shows can hit elite pitching or an elite pitcher. To me there are 3 elite prospects and likely only 2 that the Twins would consider at 5 which is disappointing. I do think Teel could be the Twins pick. Will just have to wait and see.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If it is true that Boras and Crews want nothing to do with Pittsburg that is exactly what the Twins need to happen in this draft. In stead of Clark falling to 10, a very real possibility Clark goes 1 at a discounted price. That drops the big 3 down to picks 2-4 and the Twins money can then come into play, along with the Texans being high on the high school players as well. That would allow either Skenes or Langford to fall to 5. That is the best case outcome for the Twins or something funky that would allow Crews to get to 5 which would be crazy town.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    What does everyone think of Quinn Matthews - Currently ranked around 110 but could go higher after good performance in CWS, however has had extremely high pitch totals. Has high strike out rate, ok fastball 94 mph, improving control. If available in the 4th or if taken early in the third, would you do it. He would match up with Twins preference of tall and lanky pitcher add in he is a left hander :). These are the rounds where Twins typically pound hitting, however, this would be a solid pick that could also get some savings being a college senior. The throw in his 156 pitch count in his last game . . . will be curious to see where he goes.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am predicting our 3rd sweep of the year. Gallo, Correa and the rest of the bats go off. Gallo gets at least 2 HR's against a depleted tigers pitching squad for this series.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    To me though there 3 elite picks. Crews, Langford, Skenes and the most likely scenario is those players effectively go chalk in the first 3 picks There is rumors and articles even on this site stating if Skenes is available or the high school bats the Twins would prefer to go a college bat route. Currently here is who most teams are tied to Pirates - Most likely Crews - possibility of under slot deal to Clark Nationals - Skenes seems most likely, and of the top 4 this is his most likely destination otherwise could drop. Have done a lot of evaluation on Jenkins Tigers - Tight lipped, but favor college bats. If Crews were to somehow fall, Tigers scoop him up, most likely Langford Rangers - appears to prefer the high school players. Currently most think Jenkins is rated higher than Clark Crews is likely gone by pick 3 in any scenario. Skenes is most likely picked at 2, if not could drop to 5. Langford is most likely Detroit, if something funky happened could fall to 5 and I believe this is the Twins ideal draft scenario. The high school kids ultimately could go anywhere. Maybe the Twins would pick one of the high school kids, but they have preferred the college route due to less risk (think Cavaco). The Twins do have the 4th most money, but for that to take place you are going to need 1 to 2 players do below market deals for the money to even come into play.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If we are let down by the first pick, possibility they can have a major overpay at 34. Jacob Gonzalez and then book ended with someone like Thomas White. Or draft noble Meyer at an under slot contract and pick up a very good bat at the end of 34. It would be getting cute, but I would be fine with that I suppose. Still hoping some how some way Langford drops to us at 5. That would open up the rest of the draft for the way the Twins like to draft.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Also - we might have something with Corey Lewis. The Twins were able to improve his velocity to 92 to 94 mph on his fastball. There is also a possibility he improves a tick or two as well. The curve ball is an elite pitch. The slider has been a work in progress. However as stated its his modified Knuckle that adds intrigue. Lewis was becoming a legit prospect with his new found mechanics and increased velocity. He is now a pitcher that adds a knuckleball to his repertoire, not a knuckler trying to be a pitcher. His modified Knuckle pitch sounds interesting, as he throws it faster than the traditional pitch, but the other thing is he seems to have an immense feel for the pitch that does not require him to throw it, 50, 60 or 85% of the time to be effective. He has now thrown a couple games granted A ball and now high A ball, where they could not touch him (a combined no hitter and now a shut out). His issue has been control in college and with 56 strikes out of 80 pitches, that is excellent. Other than some slight tweaks on the fastball, you may see a fast riser in the system. I wouldn't be surprised at an additional promotion to AA by the end of the summer.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Curious what the injury to Austin Martin is now.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I haven't heard specific issues on Clark attitude issues, however what has been stated is of the 2 high school kids Jenkins is just a superb individual with good family background (think Mauer). So when you are looking at the 2 between that Jenkins I have heard gets the slight leg up but that is not to say there has been anything negative about Clark I can find.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    For #5 Give me Langford based on the Twins tendencies. As to #34 - It is a bit unorthodox and a bit of a gamble that he can remain in the outfield. Even still he could be a decent 1st baseman - Nolan Schanuel. It does feel a bit like a Sabato all over again with the upside he could play in the outfield. Schanuel is probably the 3rd best bat in the draft based of this years stats. He has a 60 hit tool, and has an extremely good eye which results in a high OBP. he had 3 home runs against Florida so its not like he has not performed against better pitching. If you could end up with Langford (or my personal favorite Skenes) and Schanuel - that would be a heck of a start to the draft.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Ultimately this comes down to the Twins board. If you were to believe what has been stated from insiders to members of this board, the Twins are adverse to drafting a pitcher or High School hitter in the 1st. Obviously they have gone against both of those trends in the past but if we use it as a baseline, Skenes, Clark and Jenkins are off the board. Which essentially makes this a 1 person draft for the Twins or they will be selecting a below slot deal and leaving many disappointed here. That one option is Langford, The issue is getting Langford through the first 3 picks, The only way that occurs is Clark and to a lessor extent Jenkins gets selected in the first 3 picks and Skenes gets selected also. Then it appears the Rangers like both Clark and Jenkins so it would not be surprise if they went that route. Even still the odds it falls this way is less than 25% in my mind. Based on the tea leaves we are selecting one of the 2 college shortstops (Gonzalez or Wilson) with most likely Clark or Jenkins available at 5. There is also a slight chance Skenes were to fall as well. There are lots of moving parts.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This isn't feasible but nice try. For me in order my preference assuming Crews is gone is Skenes, Langford, Clark. Skenes looks like he could potentially be a #1 headline starter and fits the exact mold of what the Twins are doing. They would not trade him unless we get a #1 pitcher on his rookie contract with 3 years remaining. It is interesting that there is rumors that the Pirates like Clark which completely changes the drafts dynamics. Its assumed Crews is going #1 and Skenes was going #2. If this flips it changes the dynamics and the Skenes camp can push more for a preferred destination between the next 3 based on salary demands.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I have posted a couple articles on this class. The biggest point I would make is without Cavaco and many other players signing at reduced money, the Twins don't have the money at the end of the day to do the oversized contract to Julien. It was a winding draft and signing period where Julien stated he was staying in college then signed at the last minute. Had Cavaco panned out this would be a great draft. I still think we can get something out of Canterino, will have to wait and see. Wallner is also a wildcard as to whether can become a solid MLB player. Steer was a heck of a pick as well as Varland. We swapped Legumina for Farmer. Steer brought us Mahle although that trade didn't work out, the overall draft philosophy is working very well. You won't hit on everything but they hit on a lot. You still have a few players that could pan out yet. Most notable would be Mooney and laweryson and Isola beyond the bigger name and higher drafted players.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    No offense, but the pitching prospects since 2017 has been historically bad. You have multiple years that have been labeled as the worst pitching prospect classes in the modern era. When your prospect pool has been bad it is more likely you will have much more variability on success. Add in 2020 and overall the Twins have had a good philosophy to avoid pitching in the early rounds. I could see that changing if by some chance Skenes were to drop. Dollander is a possibility but I still think they would go with a bat.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    For the hitters this feels right. We need to remember the Twins have the 4th amount of salary pool available, so in reality we can outbid the pick in front of us which does give the Twins some maneuverability. Langford is my choice. I actually do prefer Clark over Jenkins due to a better compact swing.. I think the Twins could have a strong case at going underslot with any of the available prospects and who would do a deal with them. I think the big question mark is does anyone in the top 5 take a chance on Dollander. A consensus #1 pick at the beginning of the year. For me as it stands. 1. Skenes ( seems like a pipe dream). Skenes fits the Twins to a T. Has their prototypical build and Wes Johnson has coached him. 2. Crews (also likely a pipe dream). One of best hitting prospects in a decade. 3. Langford (possibility could drop). Has actually had better numbers than Crews this year. 4. Dollander (has at least shown high production at the upper levels) 5. Clark 6. Jenkins 7. Gonzalez 8. Lowder 9. Teel
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Small stats can fluctuate greatly. Cano is up to just under a 1 ERA. But he has given up 3 runs in his last 6 innings pitched. Still hasn't hit a multiple home run situation that can inflate the ERA quickly. Hamilton and Cano both look like good relief options, something the Twins could use. Jorge Lopez stats are not bad, a .5 WAR, but most here would like more consistency. We are still ahead on the trade front overall. Ultimately the infield will be some combination of Correa, Lewis, Kiriloff and Lee for the majority of the next 4-6 years. That only changes if a wildcard can outperform someone else. Julien will most likely become a depth piece. Steer ultimately didn't have spot and we didn't have enough 40 man spots as is last year. We were going to lose some players. In hind sight Hamilton and Cano both would have been nice to still have on the team, but I am not sure our staff could fix Cano.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This year it is going to be a 3 horse race between Miranda, Farmer and Lewis - as long as Polanco stays healthy. We have Polanco for one more year, but the near to medium term outlook for players looks to be 3rd Lee, SS Correa, 2nd Lewis, 1st Kiriloff or some combination of those players. If Miranda outperforms another player fine. However I think thats why the Twins felt comfortable dealing Steer last year for Mahle. We have ample options for the infield positions, and if someone fails we have backups. You have Julien, Helman, Miranda, possibly Martin or Severino that look like they have potential to be a big league player or fill in. That also doesn't consider the other higher drafted short stop prospects at the lower levels.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Just what we have coming in the future, I don't think a deal with Mahle makes sense unless he does a very team friendly deal and even in that case I think its better for the Twins to move on. Pitchers for next year - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Winder, Paddack and possible QO to Sonny Gray. That ignores SWR and a few other prospects if they made large jumps between now and next year.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Arreaz tends to start the year out hot and then level out as minor injuries begin to nag and seem to effect his performance. When refreshed and fully off his new workout regime he has become a beast for the early part of the season.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    That ignores Gray, Lopez and Ryan. Also part of the reason we got Paddack as cheap as we did was because of the elbow concern.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Cossetti may give the Twins enough leverage they won't feel they need to pick a catcher early. Keep picking a couple each year in the mid to late rounds and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle. The other advantage is the reemergence of Ryan Jeffers. Cossetti has definitely been a revelation this year.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I see little chance Teel is an option at 5. The only way it works is that you can get 2 players around the 15-20 range to be a packaged deal effectively and can under slot Teel and overslot the other player, potentially a pitcher like a Thomas White (6' 5") who is projectible and has the height and size the Twins like, also low and behold another left handed pitcher. However I think that goes out the door when I think something really good falls into their laps. Don't know why but still think the 2nd best hitter drops to 5 in Wyatt Langford, and I think the Twins jump all over it. Otherwise I think the Twins will think they can fix Dollander and make him back into the #1 pitcher he was.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lopez is a very good reliever. Yes from Time to time he might get in trouble, but unlike Pagan, he has the stuff to get out of the problem a majority of the time. He is steady and reliable. He has already give us .8 WAR. Right now I just want Duran to dial it in a bit more. Otherwise things are going very well so far. Still wish we would have kept Coloumbe, but Brock Stewart has been a nice addition so far. Pagan still scares me. Other than that, I think we can find a cheap addition if needed to bolster the bullpen this summer if needed.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Get as many good hitters as you can, and try to hit on a couple pitchers lower in the draft. Trade excess hitters for pitching. So far the formula has worked and we should have more pitching prospects coming to help support the big leagues here this year and in future years. I am becoming more and more confident the managements approach is working. However we just need Correa to start hitting again.
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