jdgoin

But also in this case Hef was in NY by now.

I would believe that. Hef is smart. He had an easy way about him. ML experience. You could tell from the first interview he had ceiling if he stayed with it. He had just retired a few months earlier. I wanted to hire him in Arizona when the Mets hired him.

I am trying to understand what you mean by stats don’t tell the whole story in this case?

Nice work @Parker Hageman. There is a lot to unpack here. I'll start with the changing of Lopez. The Lopez & Pressly situations while similar, seem to be very different as well. As I recall, HOU never asked Press to change the shape of either of his breaking pitches. They wanted him to throw his CB more often & with confidence. Your analysis of Lopez it seems like they tried to change his SI & CH to pair up "more efficiently" & alter his release point to do so. For a reliever in season, one of those is difficult, let alone all three. MIN has also lost their "Fixer" when Wes Johnson left. This has always been my biggest thing when someone wants to acquire a pitcher based on pitch data. Who do we/they have who can fix it? It's a hard mental adjustment for a guy.

Yes, I'm guessing the Twins were hoping if they could come close enough in money that the sales pitch they gave during the 2022 season would mean something even if the money was a little less. I don't know if they could have gone higher or not. But I'm pretty sure Boras either told all teams involved or a select few what offers he had in hand and gave them a certain amount of time to beat them. The Giants chose to do that and make sure nobody else was close. The Giants had to make a decision as well. They could have increased their offer slightly and risk not signing Correa. Or do nothing and call Boras' bluff. None of us know what the offers were as of say, Sunday night. For all we know the Giants offered 10 years and $295 million at first and came back with the winning offer.

@Parker Hageman Nice question! Do teams "miss" players when they are targeting one or do they conduct due diligence and make an informed decision on who to target, keep multiple conversations going, etc? Of course they miss out on players by targeting someone. Just by definition they missed out on Turner, Bogaerts, etc. because their main SS priority was Correa. They were willing/wanted to get Correa and would let the others sign first if they didn't have an answer. I guess a team could make the same or similar offer to those 3 players and give the agents 48 hours to respond and whomever responds first gets the deal. Not sure that would be received to well by the agents. If you're asking did they miss out on an impact starter by waiting on Correa, then they chose to miss out on the starter. But the reverse would have been true as well. If they would have targeted a SP at the top end and had to wait they would have missed on Correa as well. There is always a tradeoff. Even the Yankees missed out on a starter because they went after Judge. So maybe they missed on DeGrom and settled for Rodon. Just like if you were thinking of doing a marathon you might need to think about giving up Coors Light during training. There is a tradeoff. Teams have their pref lists for FA and potential FA ongoing. That helps make decisions in future seasons as well by studying the quality/depth of positions available this offseason, next offseason, and going forward. The real work on the current FA class probably started right after the Trade Deadline. Personnel departments will begin to rank them by position, then maybe by all position players, pitchers (SP & RP separate), and then combine everyone together. Using this offseason as an example, let's say the Twins had no clear SS frontrunner. They would take Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts. But they really wanted Rodon and their second SP candidate fell behind all the SS in their rankings. They may go after Rodon while keeping dialogue going with the SS class and be happy with whichever SS they signed. Does that make sense? You use your projections and internal rankings on all ML players so you can quickly see how each player affects your roster, your payroll, etc. Doesn't matter if they're FA or currently in an organization. I would say most teams do not have the payroll availability to sign two guys like Correa and DeGrom, so you have to make decisions. Adding $60+ million in salary probably strains most teams. In today's game, teams are talking with each other all the time. You're keeping track of who might be available via trade. During FA you have all sorts of conversations going on with multiple agents or agencies. I would say every teams at least checks in on just about every free agent to get a lay of the land. Maybe something pops up that wasn't on their radar. Teams do a lot of due diligence nowadays.

The cynicism is extra thick today. ??

As usual, you make a very articulate and valid point.

I’m not debating the approach. That’s a separate discussion. I just was trying to give some potential insight on how it went down based off experience and possibly what their thought process may have been. I don’t have any info other than what I’ve observed and been through.

From inside an MLB organization, deep sea fishing looks a bit different. Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports I've been listening and reading reactions from media, fans, this blog, etc. since FA opened. I'm pretty sure the front office went home pissed, bummed out, confused, and with all sorts of mixed emotions when Carlos Correa signed with the San Francisco Giants. It's deflating when an agent calls to say their client is going to go in another direction. I know this is the job we/they have signed up for, so it comes with criticism. You put a lot of time, effort, and emotions into something and must have it play out the way you want. It's even more exhausting when your job is evaluated every which way by outsiders, and you truly are doing what you think is best. You're not trying to be cheap or make it look like you're just putting in effort for show. You honestly are trying the best you can, given your circumstances. For fans and media, the armchair quarterback stuff is fun. I get it. Did the Twins get played in this Correa saga? Were they played? A little by Correa's actions throughout 2022, but Derek and Thad are smart. They have dealt with Boras plenty. They know his playbook. They took a shot with the initial contract and tried to make the best of it. They knew it was a one-year deal unless Correa had a TERRIBLE year in 2022. They wanted to sell him and his family on the area, the culture, and the ballpark and show him what he could have. A season-long recruiting visit, so to speak. Before NIL, that stuff used to work in college. It can work in capped leagues where you must find advantages outside player salaries. You take care of the players' families. You upgrade the travel accommodations, nutrition, etc. -- things that don't count against a salary cap. It's a little more challenging in baseball. Those two knew the risks they assumed when entering this contract. Plenty of comments claim the Twins should have known that 10 years for $285 would not get it done. A couple of points here: Minnesota knew they would not be the highest bidder in the end. They were hoping to keep it close enough to stay in the race. Like many businesses, they hoped the relationship between the manager, club, ownership, and player meant something. Also, having been involved in player negotiations for many years, Boras took his best offers to San Francisco Giants and whoever else and told them you had 24 to 72 hours to match or beat it. San Francisco chose to be the highest bidder, for better or worse. Only time will tell. The Twins didn't get beat because ownership is cheap. They aren't cheap - they are disciplined. And I realize that makes fans upset. Some fans want the emotional owner who will do "whatever it takes." Were they aggressive enough while having Correa? Phil Mackey had a little rant on YouTube yesterday saying the Twins should have been more aggressive in other areas, particularly pitching, for the one season they knew they had Correa. At first, I thought Phil was correct. But I thought about it more. You can argue with the results, but they were aggressive in acquiring starting pitching. They traded for the three of them for the 2022 season. If you want to debate the individual pitchers, I can understand that. Or, if you're going to argue trading for injured pitchers because they cost less, you can do that, too. The results were mixed from poor, to below average, to solid. But they were aggressive. We have yet to learn who else they tried to acquire via trade. We know the end results. When players hire Boras in a situation as Correa did, they hire him to be a fixer. Here's how: In that first contract, he works on finding the best fit so the player can reestablish his value. Boras calls it a "pillow contract." Then he usually searches for the most significant deal he can find, either by Average Annual Value (AAV) or by total guaranteed money. Sometimes a big-time Boras free agent takes a little less to go where they want to go, but not often. That's the inherent risk of chasing "big fish," particularly chasing Boras clients. If you plan contingencies, you can avoid getting stuck holding the bag at the end. The Twins planned contingencies. It does not mean they will work out, but it's been reported they've met with Swanson and Rodon already. We don't know what options C, D, and E are. The focus on Correa Aaron Gleeman wrote a fantastic article on The Athletic, laying it all out there. You should read it if you still need to. There are a lot of areas to fix on the Major League roster for 2023. They still need a shortstop. They need pitching. They need offense. They need pitching. (Yes, I know I listed it already). There are ways to work the roster without Correa and still improve it. It's still only December. Jack Goin served in various roles in Baseball Operations with the Minnesota Twins from 2003-2017, including Director of Baseball Research and Director of Pro Scouting. He most recently served as a Pro Scout and Player Personnel Analyst with the Arizona Diamondbacks from 2018-2021 View full article

They had a tough culture to work in under the previous GM. They have now run off a good GM after 2 years and winning a World Series. External candidates for that job (if there are any) are definitely going to pause before entering that atmosphere. Having a good working environment and winning aren’t mutually exclusive. It’s tough to retain talent in a poor environment. You can only overcome dysfunction for so long.

You're probably correct Nick. There hasn't been a front-loaded $300M contract, especially with opt outs that I remember. My point was there are front-loaded contracts with opt outs at lesser dollar amounts and fewer years that would provide a framework, no matter the total dollar figure. Nolan Arenado, Eric Hosmer, J.D. Martinez, Chris Sale all have front-loaded contract with opt outs. Player opt outs are also used liberally in the NBA. By "structured this way" I meant a long-term contract where the money is front-loaded and includes opt out clause or two. I wasn't trying to be vague or generalize.

Gerrit Cole and I believe Trevor Story have this clause, or similar, in their contracts. If Cole opts out the Yankees have the option to resign him for 1 year at $36 million. In Story's case he can opt out and Red Sox can add another year onto his deal. But I do like your idea, it puts some risk back on the player.

Please stop using the term creative to describe to describe these types of acquisitions. There have been plenty of contracts structured this way.

I don't understand the fan's need to hear from the owner more than once or twice per year. What are you expecting them to say publicly? It's not like they're going to tell you something you don't know or some insider info that hasn't been released yet. If they do that's BS to the people who work for them. Owners that negotiate with Boras or block trades when they've been agreed upon create poor cultures. It doesn't tell me they want to win more when they do that. But it does make me think a bunch of other stuff. There is a reason people want to copy Tampa's culture, Stu Sternberg trusts his baseball people. They've made good decisions mostly. Would they make better decisions with more money? Who knows? Maybe they wouldn't be as creative or forced to make certain choices with a larger payroll. Driving change should be the responsibility of the people who work in the business each and every day. Maybe an owner should ask questions, encourage, and create a culture that values innovation. But most owners aren't around daily to push it forward. I guess my point is saying the Twins need different ownership or need to "open their wallets" is misguided. The Pohlads take owning the Minnesota Twins very seriously.

I believe Joe will be a very good leader for the club going forward. He is smart and listens well. He never believes or acts like he is the smartest in the room. He will ask questions and questions that need to be asked. He has been involved in a lot of the more aggressive change in Pohlad businesses in recent years. I believe he will continue to push for innovation as necessary throughout the business. Joe wants to win. Jim was/is very involved and wants to win. My observation is he wants to operate the club in a smart manner, but he's a fan and wants to win. He's been a very good owner. Owners who get overly involved in player personnel are usually the issue. You can look around all 4 major sports leagues and identify them. He has understood that he is not a talent evaluator, but he doesn't get in the way of something that makes sense and baseball people believe will help the club. I think look at the Correa signing as one example. The Donaldson signing is another. There are many more examples, some behind the scenes.

No. They can't count on health. Especially the guys who have been injured in the past. There are 3 potential #3 starters among Gray, Mahle, & Ryan. I don't think any of them would be considered a #1 or #2. @Ted Schwerzler, I am curious which under-lying metrics of Mahle are "eye popping"? I see some that are above average. They currently have 3 above average starters who are good pitchers with questions around each one. After that they have wild cards and still need depth. The way they have constructed their pitching staff and handled their starters creates a lot of stress.

I've always appreciated your posts. I find them well thought out, curious, educated, and rational. OOTP has had significant input from ML employees I believe. One of the MANY reasons I wanted to hire an employee within the analytics department was his involvement in OOTP from both the technical side and his involvement as a player. I thought there were some things we might be able to explore, verify, and implement. In addition, I agree with you on analytics being more than formulas. I would say on a foundational level it's helping you sort into "red" vs "green" as you mentioned. Just starting here is a necessity. Analytics should also help you ask better/deeper questions and lessen risk. OOTP or any other well-constructed simulation exercise, should give you insight into risk, and also help maximize your roster construction. These simulations should aid in maximizing platoon situations and positional flexibility along with bullpen chaining. As you mentioned, the acquisitions of those 5 pitchers together is confusing. All have injury and/or performance questions attached to them that don't play well together. I agree with you, building a team is like building an asset portfolio. You're trying to balance asset allocation, sectors, cost, risk, etc....Perhaps it wasn't the strategy, but the execution or difficulty in executing the strategy. I'm not sure. In the end, I do agree with you and appreciate your insight and ability to mix in "real world" experience into the game of baseball.

Interesting clip. I had never seen that from him. Teams were struggling during Covid to keep front office, scouts, coaches, etc engaged. I'm guessing this was supposed to be a fun way to keep people involved, ask questions, and possibly do some fun/interesting research projects. With the Dbacks we were scouting KBO games. I'm not totally sure what to make of it. I'm guessing it was more team building. Is this what you're thinking?

Say more about this please...I would love to hear your perspective on this.

Deron Johnson was the Scouting Director. Tim O'Neil was Assistant Scouting Director. Mike Radcliff was VP, Player Personnel. Deron had final say.

Urshela is the type of player who frequently flies under the radar while coming up in the Minor Leagues. As he's coming up he doesn't "profile" for a typical power position. He was more of a contact-oriented hitter coming up which dinged his plate discipline metrics. He struck out at a better than average rate. Lot of fly balls without HR totals that make you think power production, however he did show power beneath the surface. He had a poor showing in his 1st taste of the big leagues. He performed well multiple times at 3A before "breaking out" in CLE. As a Minor Leaguer and young player in CLE he had the underrated skill combo of above-average defense and good to very good contact rates. Without traditional power totals these are the type of players who many people don't see coming. He was a skilled player rather than a tools player.

I honestly cannot remember 1 time the subject of a player being "the Union rep" ever came up in any type of discussion of moving on from a player, either by trade, waivers, or release.

I think you're correct here. Don't forget, Taylor would have probably been traded last year at the Deadline had he not been hurt. You almost always trade the reliever for the starter because of the value. Here, you have a pitcher in Paddack, who has the ability to miss bats & shows good control support metrics. He has added a CB to deepen his arsenal. He seems to have some command to tighten up, but that could be injury related. Minnesota saw an opportunity to add a pitcher with upside if he's healthy. They'll figure the rotation out later. Really, the rotation will figure itself out. They believe in their pitching program & think they can work with Paddack & Pagan to get them straightened out. Going forward they now have Gray, Maeda, Ober, Paddack, & Ryan going into 2023. Assuming Ober & Ryan continue to take steps forward that's a solid group.