jishfish

Awesome points Jamie, and I think a really great exercise to do while everything is so fresh after the draft. I'll be curious to see if the "Twins love LHH College Bats" sticks around next year on a national level or not, but I think locally that can be put to rest pretty easily. I have to imagine the one constant going forward is that the Twins are going to hammer college arms in Rounds 5-15 (as a lot of teams do). But would be awesome to see them continue to have success there, as they have with the 2022 class.

This one stood out to me as well. Crushes lefties, and I believe he can play all 3 outfield positions (maybe not well, but he has 15+ games in CF this year, so at least passable). Plus I have to imagine it would be a pretty low cost. Great suggestion, could be a very under the radar pickup.

And he immediately goes to CLE. Always knew he was going to be a bust! So glad the Twins avoided him.

I'm sure he's probably going back to school at this point, but surprised Alex Mooney out of Duke hasn't been taken yet. I always thought he fit the Spencer Steer/generic college SS with no stand-out tools but solid skills across the board. Would love for the Twins to find a way to snag/pay him, but I'm sure that's unlikely with the number of preps they've taken.

This is all I needed to see to know Hall was a good pick.

Great minds think alike I suppose! Like you said, probably a 1% chance, if that. But as much as this FO gets hated on (sometimes rightfully so), this is the kind of move I could 100% see them attempt to make behind the scenes. I do think if Clark goes #1 as some are speculating, one of the college guys is getting to #5. That difference in bonus pools is huge between Texas and Minnesota, and I have to imagine it's Crews/Langford then a massive drop on the Twins draft board.

Dylan Crews is going to be a Twin. #1. Clark cuts a deal to go First Overall, savings the Pirates a ton for later. Pittsburgh burns down. #2. Skenes is locked into the Nats. Rizzo can't resist is power college arms. #3. Langford goes to the Tigers. They've been on him all spring, and there have been reports that some teams have Langford > Crews. Tigers are one of those teams and they stick with the guy they've wanted all along, choosing not to pay Crews' asking price. #4. Jenkins goes to the Rangers. They can't afford to pay Crews what he wants due to their lack of bonus pool. And with that, the MN Twins are on the clock and select Dylan Crews, OF LSU. Twins are tight with Boras (who reps Crews) after their Correa saga the past two years, and once Crews gets past Detroit, they take the $2.2M they "found" by moving up in the lottery and go big time over-slot, essentially just buying a Top 10 Overall prospect. Plus in his interview with Doogie, Sean Johnson mentioned a few times about being creative and taking advantage of this opportunity, which everyone takes to mean they'll go under-slot, when really it's all an elaborate ruse to get the top guy in the draft. Derek Falvey is carried off the stage in Seattle and construction immediately begins on his statue outside Target Field. **JUMPS AWAKE AND TURNS HIS HEAD TO THE TV AS THE TWINS SELECT JACOB GONZALEZ, IF OLE MISS** **SLOWLY WEEPS INTO HIS HANDS**

I was under the same impression as well. I personally prefer Clark, so that would be a welcomed surprise, but had also been assuming the Twins would prefer Jenkins over Clark. This Front Office is also so tight-lipped in all their decision-making, I wouldn't be shocked if we're all just speculating for nothing and they do end up just taking whichever of the 5 falls to them.

I think the only path I see to him getting to the Twins is: Clark - Cuts an under-slot deal. Crews - He won't get past here. Skenes - Haven't seen any connection between these two, but maybe they just don't expect him to be available at 3 and once he is and they're on the clock they can't pass it up. Jenkins If Langford gets past Detroit at 3, I could see the Twins trying to get Langford past Texas with their bonus pool difference. I have to imagine he's either 1 or 2 on the Twins board.

I like the fact that he's at least not a plodder out there. It feels like LF is typically just a "throw someone there if they can't play anywhere else" position. But if Langford is a 30HR/12-15SB guy who's fast enough to be an asset out there, I don't think anyone should be upset about that. Especially if he's passable enough to play CF 30 times a year or something.

I'm with you on this point. I was Jenkins > Clark for most of the spring, but I've done a 180 on Clark and would think he brings a ton of tools to the table that the Twins are lacking (athleticism, speed, true CF/leadoff profile, line-drive approach). Plus it's not like he's Jacob Wilson with no power, I think he profiles as at least a 15-20 HRs per year guy. So I think in terms of what I want to see the Twins do I'm pretty locked in on: Tier 1: Skenes/Langford (0% chance Crews is there) Tier 2: Clark Tier 3: Jenkins/Teel *Huge dropoff* Tier 4: Matt Shaw/Tommy Troy/Chase Davis (only if they're like $1.5M under-slot. I think the minimum the Twins can offer is $5.4M) Would pretty much hate anything else, in my unprofessional opinion.

I won't be happy if it's not one of the top 5, but if the Twins are set on the college bat route, Teel is the path I would most like to see them take. I can at least see the allure of an athletic left-handed hitting college catcher who tore up a premier conference and projects to stick behind the plate with a cannon of an arm. Again, hope it's one of the top 5! But if the alternative is Teel at at least a small discount plus floating someone down to one of their next two picks, I could live with that result. *Edit: Expanding on the discount, I don't imagine it would be huge considering Teel is pretty much a lock to go Top 10 either way. I would think something around $6.3-6.4M, which is roughly equal to the 7th overall pick and would be ~$700k under slot. Adding that to the 34th slot value could probably get someone ranked in the mid-20s down to the Twins Comp A pick, so maybe like a Thomas White or Dillon Head?

Young bat (Larnach/Wallner/Miranda/Julien) + Varland for Goldy + Jordan Hicks (FA at end of the year)? Twins have a log jam of 24-26 year old position players who aren't really prospects anymore but also don't have a path to any clear playing time. I would rather ship one of them off than let them toil in the minors for another year. Parting with Varland would stink, especially because he's such a good story as a home grown kid. With that being said, he also has been nothing more than average in his first 15 MLB starts (small sample, I know), and I know I've seen it thrown around that he could eventually be a guy that moves to the bullpen. At the same time, we would then be one SP injury away from Headrick or Winder starting every 5th day which I definitely don't love. Personally I do this every single time, but I'm sure a lot of others are in the "never in a million years bucket". I think this would be the sort of package it would take though.

Ah hell. Well there goes that idea... Oh well, kept me busy writing this instead of doing my actual job, so I'll take the distraction at least. Appreciate the clarification!

I want to begin by emphasizing the point that there is less than a 0.01% chance of this ever happening, but reading Kiley McDaniel's mock draft the other day and his mention of "chaotic vibe" got me thinking about a scenario that would qualify as "Willi Castro-level chaos". I want to be clear that this is not something I personally would want to see the Twins do. I think the clear and obvious choice should be to draft and develop whatever top 5 talent drops to them. But if that's not something they are interested in doing, I think this is a unique way to capitalize on that picks value. Let's layout some assumptions for this scenario. Assumptions: There is a consensus Top 5 in this year's draft, all of whom are of a talent level that would be in consideration at #1 overall most years. The Twins may not be interested in all 5 of those players: They are most interested in Crews/Langford, but in talking with teams/agents leading up to the draft, neither of them is going to make it to #5. Their draft models value hitters over pitchers, and they wouldn't be willing to take Paul Skenes at #5. The are looking for more immediate impact than a HS draftee could provide, and they wouldn't be willing to take Max Clark or Walker Jenkins at #5. The draft plays out the same exact way as Kiley's mock draft (Clark--> Crews--> Langford--> Jenkins--> Skenes) The Twins Front Office is starting to feel the heat and have decided 'Screw building for the future, we've lost 18 straight playoff games, no more', and are willing to go to some unconventional measures to improve this team at the trade deadline. All players mentioned from here on out will continue to perform at their current All-Star caliber level and remain healthy. Based on the above, what if the Twins approached the Pirates on Draft Weekend and gave them the option to walk away with two of the top five talents in this class? The Trade: Mitch Keller + David Bednar for Twins #5 Overall Pick Now I know what you're thinking. I can hear you screaming at your computer right now. "You idiot! You can't trade draft picks!". Yup, I know and am aware of that, I promise. You can trade PTBNL however, which is our little loophole to bring this back to reality. Obviously the Twins can't just send the #5 pick and associated bonus pool money to the Pirates. But taking a page out of the 2014 Padres book, they could make a deal with whomever the draft at #5 overall on a list of possible Players To Be Named Later, which would send that prospect over to the Pirates immediately after the World Series. Why would the Pirates consider doing this? The Pirates have been a nice story to start the year, but I don't think they (or anyone else) really believe they're close to contending. They're in this for the long run, and getting two top 5 talents in a generational draft would be a great way to do that. If this were agreed upon pre-draft, it opens up some really interesting possibilities for them to get creative. Assuming the word leading up to the draft is that neither of the College OF will be available at 5, that leaves Skenes/Jenkins/Clark as the three options. None of whom the Twins want long-term, but all of whom hold immense trade value. The Pirates lean into Kiley's "chaos scenario" and take Max Clark #1 overall because he will take the biggest discount, thereby allowing them to float a first round talent down to their second round pick. Assuming the draft plays out as assumed above, that would leave the Pirates walking away with Clark + Skenes + [Insert additional first round talent]. Why would the Twins consider doing this? Assuming the two College OF's they really want will not be available at #5, this gives the Twins a chance to capitalize on the trade value of one of the talents they aren't as interested in. The assumption here is that both Keller and Bednar will remain healthy and continue pitching at the level they have been. That means a sub-3.00 era, top of the rotation level for Keller, and A low-2's era, shutdown level closer for Bedner. Keller comes with 2.5 years of team control along with 3.5 years of control for Bednar, so you're essentially trading for the same amount of team control as you would get with the #5 pick. The Twins would go into the post-season with a top-3 rotation (Gray/Ryan/Lopez/Keller), plus a lights out bullpen duo in Bednar/Duran. I know the pitching hasn't exactly been the problem this year like it has in years past, but perhaps they choose to just lean into it being a strength and assume some of the bats will turn things around to be at least a league average offense. While the perception of this trade would be "The Twins traded Paul Skenes for Keller/Bednar", the reality would be that they chose Keller/Bednar > Jacob Gonzalez/[Insert second tier college hitter]. Again, the assumption is (right or wrong) the Twins would not be willing to use their pick on Skenes/Clark/Jenkins, instead preferring a college bat. Is this something I would want the Twins to do or be excited about the Twins doing? No. I think they were gifted a Top 5 pick in a draft with 5 top tier players, and to waste that by taking someone besides one of those players would be stupid and a fire-able offense. But if some of what has been leaking out is based in reality, I would rather see them utilize that pick value like this, rather than squandering it on a Jacob Gonzalez or Jacob Wilson-level player. Would love to hear peoples thoughts and reactions if you have any! All I ask is that you consider the assumptions/scenario I laid out. This is all hypothetical and has absolutely 0% chance of ever happening, but I thought it was a unique idea and wanted to take some time to write it all out to see what it would look like.

Agreed with you completely. Looking back just a few drafts ago, Austin Martin had a similar profile (high contact, below average power, probably move off of shortstop), and he was even putting up his numbers in the SEC. He at least had speed/athleticism on his side to provide value via stolen bases and defensive versatility, which I don't know that Wilson has. Ultimately the power still hasn't come for him though, and while I do believe he can still be a useful big league player, I think most would agree he's been a bust based on his pre-draft expectations.

One other thought I had just connecting some dots this morning. I have a weird hunch that the Reds are going to do everything they can to get Max Clark to them at 7, with the biggest obstacle being him getting past the Twins at 5. Let me break it down: Clark would be a perfect fit for the Reds. Local kid (Franklin is only an hour and a half from Cincinnati). They don't really have any CF prospects in their system, at least not top 10. They jumped on a falling prep talent in Cam Collier last year. He fits perfectly with both their timeline and the type of player they look for. Pairing him with Elly de la Cruz, Collier, CES, Noelvi Marte, etc would be a perfect fit and is a fun future lineup to dream on. If Clark gets past the Twins at 5, I don't think there's any shot he goes to Oakland at 6. Oakland has a pretty old school scouting department from my understanding, and have mainly been connected to college hitters/pitchers. This is the big one, but I think Clark would legitimately choose going to Vandy over Oakland. With his social media presence and personality, the last place I see him wanting to end up is Oakland given their current state of affairs. I'm not sure how that completely ties in with some of the news that's been trickling out about the Twins being connected to the second tier of college hitters, but maybe the Reds are just trying to generate some steam there to get a maximum chaos scenario to play out? Obviously the Twins can do whatever they want, and if they have Clark at the top of their board at 5 I'm sure they'll take him, but just wanted to share a fun theory I had!

True, love that point about the Twins being tight lipped. There also doesn't seem to be any motivation for the Twins to be leaking anything at this point. So while I'm sure "sources" do look at the Twins and say their model says hitters over pitchers (which technically isn't wrong), I think there is a lot more nuance than that. Especially when there's still 6 weeks to go until draft day with private workouts/individual meetings all yet to happen. In my opinion, the hardest decision the Twins should have to make is if more than one of the top five were to make it to their pick, but I'm confident you're in agreement with me on that and would be a great problem to run into.

Awesome content as always Jamie! Couple thoughts I've been having as some new rankings/mock draft/notes have come out, particularly around Jacob Gonzalez/Wilson. First, I'm pretty confident Langford is at least #2 on the Twins board, and it wouldn't shock me if they were one of the teams who valued him over Crews. I have to imagine he is the Best Case Scenario at this point, and that if he were to get past the Tigers at 3, the Twins would do everything they could to get him to 5. Second, I'm also pretty confident the Twins would have Jenkins > Clark on their board, based both on skillset and personality. Based on those two statements, my guess would be that either Langford or Jenkins would be the easy pick if either of them make it to 5. I think the most interesting scenario that could paly out is if Crews/Skenes/Langford/Jenkins all go top 4, and the Twins are left with a choice between Clark or [Insert College Player, most likely with the first name Jacob]. I think this is the only scenario I could see the Twins not taking one of the consensus top 5, as I haven't heard much connecting them with Clark, and I do think they value College Bat > HS Bat. I just can't see them taking either Jacob Wilson or Jacob Gonzalez over one of those top 4 players. I know the Kiley McDaniel over at ESPN wrote today that he has heard "the Twins would take Jacob Gonzalez over Skenes due to the hitter preference of their draft model", which I have a few more thoughts on. While I do think it's true that the Twins model values hitters over pitchers in a vacuum, I think that's more the case of "all else equal we'll go hitter", which I don't think is the case here with the talent level of Skenes. I also don't think Gonzalez/Wilson would even be the model favorites of the Twins, unless they value Contact > everything, which I don't believe they do. I would have to think Kyle Teel or even a Chase Davis/Tommy Troy would be higher in any sort of model they're using. Based on some Twitter notes from Darren Wolfson, it sounds like the Twins have had a pretty heavy presence at LSU games all spring, particularly the Skenes starts. So while I do think their model points towards hitter over pitcher (aka Langford over Skenes), I don't believe it would point towards "mid-first round hitter with average power" over "generational pitcher who's been working with our former pitching coach for the last 12 months". All of this is basically just a long way of me coping with these reports of Jacob Wilson/Gonzalez being on the Twins radar, but if you've stuck with me this far I appreciate the read! Early July can not get here soon enough!!

Clark is the one I'm really struggling with, particularly as a fit for the Twins and how they would view him. Listening to a few different podcasts, it sounds like Walker Jenkins is in the Royce Lewis tier of 80-grade people. Joe Doyle in particular absolutely raves about the kid. And that isn't to say Max isn't a great kid too, but I see him and Jenkins as almost polar opposites in how they go about their business. So from both a skillset and personality standpoint, I think the Twins would value Jenkins over Clark. But at the same time, I do love some of the Bryce Harper-like fire that Clark seems to bring, and I feel like it's something the Twins haven't had in a long time. And maybe that's what they need after years of quiet, understated guys like Mauer, Morneau, Buxton, and even Kirilloff? Tough to say and probably nit-picking, but when you're picking in the top 5 I can definitely see little things like that making a big difference. Fingers crossed someone pops Clark early and Langford or Jenkins is there at 5!

Really hopeful the Twins follow your "just make the easy choice" comment. I think the only non-consensus top 5 player I would be alright with them taking would be Kyle Teel. The Keith Law rumors of them being in on Jacob Wilson/Jacob Gonzalez were terrifying this week. Definitely not the type of players I would be looking to take in the top 5! As a side note, if Langford gets past the Tigers at 3, I could see the Twins flexing their bonus pool to get him past the Rangers. He seems like a player the Twins would very much covet! He's probably my Best Case Scenario choice at this point. Appreciate your work!

Agreed, especially because he seems to be relatively athletic and versatile. From what I've read it seems he doesn't 100% have a defensive home (3B/RF most likely) but that it has more to do with him being good in multiple places versus trying to hide him (ala Miranda, Julien, CES, etc). Definitely wouldn't be mad if they pulled the trigger in R2.

If anyone is looking for a shortlist of potential college hitters the Twins might take, I would recommend looking that the BAGS+ data on ProspectsLive. Looking back this regime has taken a top 20 ranked hitter by BAGS+ every single year since they took over. Maybe that should be obvious since this regime loves college hitters, but some of their picks that ranked in the top 20 during their draft year include: Jeffers (#20 in draft year), CES (#7), Schobel (#16). Seems like there might be enough of a trend there to put a little stock in it. I think the most likely candidates this year outside of Round 1 would be Nolan Schanuel if he makes it to #34 or Mac Horvath in Round 2 or 3.

I just look at the pitchers taken in the top 10 over the past 5-6 years and can't say I would be super happy having spent a top 10 pick on any of them. Not that position players in the top 10 can't bust either, I just think there's so much that goes into pitching development that the better option is to just take a bunch in rounds 3+. Not to mention the rate of injury for pitchers. Looking at the top pitchers so far this year who are 27 and younger, the rounds they were drafted in were: 3rd, 7th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 3rd, 5th, Comp Round. Ultimately I agree drafting and developing pitching is a great way to sustain success, I just don't think your odds of doing that at pick #5 are all that much better than in Round #5. But that's just my opinion and I appreciate hearing other peoples thoughts. No 100% right way or wrong way!

Agreed with you 100% on this. One thing I would love for the Twins to focus on more is getting athletes into the system. That's part of what makes me so excited about Royce Lewis is he has the versatility and athleticism to be an asset on defense and on the bases, along with what he does at the plate. It just gives you so many more ways to contribute even if your bat goes cold for a stretch. I think all of the position players that could be under consideration at 5 (Langford, Jenkins, Clark, Teel) posses enough athleticism to fall into that bucket, even if some of them are destined to be Corner OFs. They'll at least be athletic enough to be above average defenders and hopefully swipe even 12-15 bags each year.