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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    I'm not that keen on the James calculation because it is mostly based on offensive value. A lot of teams put big guys at first base because it's the only position they can play, especially in the NL. That doesn't mean the position is less important defensively than, say LF. Catcher is the most valuable position despite the fact that the numerical analysis of catching effectiveness is less accurate than any other position. The only other guy on the field who has more to do with preventing runs is the pitcher. That's how I define defensive value; How many outs does the position typically influence? If that's the criterion, I'd rank it this way: P>C>SS>CF>2B>3B>1B>RF/LF Part of that is tied to level of difficulty. 3B is tougher than 1B because of the throw. But part of it is how often a guy touches the ball. I put a higher value on 1B than most because he touches the ball a lot and can either save or cause a lot of errors.
  2. cmathewson
    I agree with this. I thought Sano was the clear choice going into this season. But Buxton has tools that Sano can't touch. I think of Buxton as the future number 3 hitter and center fielder to overshadow all center fielders in Twins history. I think of Sano as the clean-up hitter and third baseman to overshadow all third basemen in Twins history. They're the two best prospects we've had since Mauer. But if I have to choose, I'd choose the guy with the tools who plays a premium position.
  3. cmathewson
    2012 is shaping up to be an outstanding draft.
  4. cmathewson
    I cringe when I read his name. So I must admit I have a bias against this Gray kid.
  5. cmathewson
    Perhaps I am more sensitive to this because I am myself in my cups, as they say, but it seems like this is a conversation fueled primarily by libation. Let me try to be clear despite my own libational excess: Drew Butera never was and never will be as good as Kurt Suzuki. He is, however, valuable as a defensive catching backup with very little offensive value. It is a testament to the value of catchers that one who is so inept at hitting can nonetheless be valuable if he is adept at catching. Evaluating catching numerically will forever be as much an art as a science because of the multitude of variables. Joe Benson has reached his upside, which is as a dominant AA player or a marginal AAA player. His upside would be much greater if he had ever learned to hit a curve ball. But like 90 percent of all prospects, alas, he never has. At age 25 and in his 10th year of trying, it is so unlikely that he ever learns to hit a curve ball that any team short on roster spots would be justified in letting him go. Tyler Robertson is a tragic case. He had the makings of a great lefty reliever. Unfortunately, for some inexplicable reason, he lost his velocity in the offseason. This happens sometimes. But usually, if a guy gets back in the rhythm of pitching regularly, his velo comes back. It never did with Robertson. Hopefully it does and he can resume his pro carer. Until it does, a team that needs roster space is fully justified in letting any other team that wants to give him a chance have that chance. Why are all these statements controversial?
  6. cmathewson
    If you limit waiver claims, guys won't get claimed as much, and most will stay with their organizations. That's not a bad thing, I suppose. But part of the point of the waiver system is to give guys opportunities to play in the majors.
  7. cmathewson
    He topped out at 94 in high school. But he had a funky delivery that the Twins smoothed out. In the process, he went down to sitting at 92. That was good enough with his plus slider. He came to camp with an 84-86 MPH fastball. They thought he'd add velo as he went this year. He did not. His velo is not good enough for the majors.
  8. cmathewson
    With Hermann and Pinto performing, I think it is only a matter of time before they trade Drew. First, he needs to prove that he's healthy. Then they'll start taking offers. This usually happens after teams sign a bunch of their draft picks and need to make room for them.
  9. cmathewson
    I am not crying for Burnett. He did OK for himself. It's part of the game. If he was better at what he did, he would still be pitching for the Twins.
  10. cmathewson
    He's already on the fast track by Twins standards. He's pitched at three levels in a total of 18 games as a 19 year old. When his WHIP goes down closer to 1 (as it will with the inevitable BABIP regression), he'll get the call.
  11. cmathewson
    Right. Thomas is the new Ramirez, who was the new Mastorianni.
  12. cmathewson
    My guess is Robertson still doesn't have his velocity back. He was throwing in the mid 80s when they sent him down. And he hasn't exactly mowed 'em down in AAA. The opt-out clause on Thomas makes sense. I thought the Colabello move was oddly timed. But if they had to add Thomas or lose him, it makes more sense.
  13. cmathewson
    Putting a guy on waivers is a last resort. Ergo, they tried to trade him and got no offers. They did have offers on Butera in spring training. Whatever you think of him as a player, he has some value on the open market. Benson has none.
  14. cmathewson
    Sure, I used a generality because of time and space. I just complained about what a waste of time this whole thread is, and here I am typing in it. FWIW, it's often cited that his last hurdle before being major league ready is hitting the breaking ball. If everyone knows this, they have little reason to throw him anything else (if they can). Either thy don't know this in his new league or they can't throw the curve over for strikes. So he's hitting well right now. When and if he gets promoted, he'll be face to face with the same hurdle. At 25 and two promotions away.... On Butera, I'm only going on what several industry insiders have said. Rosenthal, for example, was quoted as saying "several teams" were interested in acquiring Butera (before he got hurt), but the Twins said they wanted to stash him for depth. We know Benson has no trade interest based on how many teams passed on making a waiver claim.
  15. cmathewson
    The best guys don't always get good jumps on balls. But all the best guys make up for it with great speed. Ben Revere, for example. I'd put Hicks on par with Revere at this point. He doesn't look like he runs as fast as Revere because of the long strides, but he does. Hunter was the best I've seen at getting good jumps. But he needed to, cause he did not have great speed. Also Edmonds. Span is one of the rare talents that get great jumps and have great speed. That's why he's elite. I'd put Gomez and Ellsbury in the same class. Hicks is not there yet. But he is getting closer. He had a rough first month. I saw far fewer poor jumps in May. I'm not surprised is UZR/150 is not the greatest yet. But I think he'll be above average in UZR by the end of the year. Not that I give a lot of credence to that stat. When you play behind a bunch of line drive pitchers (ahem, Pelfrey, Worley, etc.) it's tough. Line drives that land in your zone hurt your UZR despite the fact that you can't do that much about them.
  16. cmathewson
    He does it all the time. He pretends to be ready to catch a ball in the air that he has no chance to catch. The runner looks at him, not the ball. He's trapped three guys this way, of his six outfield assists.
  17. cmathewson
    Well, I disagree. Hicks is very adept at decoying runners. He appears to misjudge balls he has no chance to catch in the air in order to get guys to run on him. When they do, he turns on the jets, wheels and fires. That's how you get outfield assists.
  18. cmathewson
    Lucky outfield assists? Every scouting report says he has a rocket arm. Yet he gets guys run on his arm and he guns them down. The only "lucky" outfield assist he had was when he threw to second instead of the cutoff man and Joe made a miraculous tag on the relay, getting the guy out because the umpire blew the call. The others were legit.
  19. cmathewson
    My guess is Arcia. Ramirez will be out awhile, if I know anything about concussions. (I've had nine of them myself. Throwing up and memory loss are bad signs.)
  20. cmathewson
    I recall several Twins officials (including Antony) quoted as saying that he might be one exception to the one-level-at-a-time high school promotion schedule. But it depends on how well he adjusts and matures. Right now, he has enough rough edges that I don't think he'll be promoted any time soon. But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets promoted in August or so. One way or another, I expect him to start next year in Fort Myers.
  21. cmathewson
    I'm officially sick of his cutter. I haven't watched every inning, but it seems like every homer he's given up has been on that pitch, and most of the XBHs. He throws it just outside of middle middle at 86 with just the right spin to make the ball fly. He's got a decent curve and change. But he throws that cutter way too much.
  22. cmathewson
    I'm willing to give him a mulligan on his first 10 days in the majors. If you do that, they are very comparable.
  23. cmathewson
    Before I say a guy has upside, he has to prove to me that he can hit an off-speed pitch. It's one of those necessary conditions for major league players. He has shown he can hit the fastball. He's never shown he can hit the curve or change. That's why he has struggled above AA, where guys can throw off-speed pitches for strikes.
  24. cmathewson
    Why would they deal some of their pool away in the deepest year in a long time? Why is this "more likely".
  25. cmathewson
    Gray, no questions asked.
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