cmathewson

I like Chavez as a bench bat, but only if we trade Doumit. I don't want to clog the bench with old slow guys who provide limited defensive value.

Considering all this, what was Boston thinking?

You have a point there. Gardy often needed to leave him out there longer than he probably should have because none of the other starters were giving him innings and the bullpen was getting beat up early. On a better staff, you can just pull him after six innings and two earned runs because the other guys are taking their share of the innings load.

I hope they sign Salty to two years with an option. I would not want to give such a deal to Pierzinski because of his age. Yes, he's durable, but mostly because he's a tough SOB who plays hurt a lot. Salty is still only 28 and should have two or three good years left in him. He was the best of the class coming in and now he's clearly the best available. With his options lessened, the Twins actually have a shot to get him. As for blocking Pinto: Meh. You can't have too many catchers. Pinto can take a year at AAA, and serve as Salty's apprentice next year. In 2016, he can take the starting job and Salty can be the veteran back-up. No rush on Pinto.

I was thinking more like two years, $12 million for Pelfrey.

I think I read somewhere that the MLB average for BABIP is around .300. As for HR/FB, haven't heard, but it is a stat that correlates very closely to park effects. Right handers have a high HR/FB ratio in Yankee Stadium, where mere fly balls end up over the fence at an alarming rate. Target Field is the opposite, to RF anyway. That is why his ERA is almost a point lower away from Yankee Stadium.

I think Ryan did just punt the season entirely. Of course he wouldn't say that openly when there are sales people whose livelihoods depended on a competitive team with offices in the same building. And he did overestimate Worely and Diamond (most of us did as well). He also expected Deduno to be healthy and he wasn't until June. And countless other smaller disappointments added up (Gibson). But I don't think he had a reasonable expectation of competing in 2013. And he knew it.

Well, I seem to recall him saying that he wasn't fond of last year's free agent class, but he hoped for better this year. So perhaps the philosophy was to wait for better options to invest in. It meant suffering through a bad year. But it was not a bad long-term strategy.

I think you're right about the aggressiveness. I expect him to sign one more pitcher and a catcher. I like your call on Kazmir. I remember when the Twins played Cleveland and TR was in the booth with Dick-N-Bert. He said he seriously considered taking a flyer on Kazmir in the offseason, "in hindsight, that's one I missed." So he likes him. And the rotation could use a decent lefty. As for AJ, LaVelle is rarely wrong about these things. I was just hoping for a little better. Pinto is a good looking prospect, but he might be more than one year away from being able to start at the major league level. I could see a two-year deal, or one year plus an option. As long as you're doing that, you might as well go for the next layer up, someone like Salty. I can dream. Not sure about CF, though. Hicks should regress (progress?) to the mean. Presley is a reasonable stop gap, at least until Buxton is ready. But you make a good point about lead-off. The way the team is constructed, the CF pretty much has to lead off. And neither Presley nor Hicks is a good enough lead-off hitter for them to compete. If they do sign someone, I wouldn't be thrilled with Davis. I don't think he's much of an upgrade over Presley. He has a .316 career OBP. He steals a lot of bases, but he gets caught a lot--double digits in four of the last five years. The more I look at the CF FA class, the more I think they can't do much better than Presley unless they want to spend lavishly for Ellsbury or Choo. So I say they stand pat in center. Buxton is closer to being ready than Pinto, mostly because it takes so long for catchers to learn how to handle pitching staffs. But also, he's Buxton.

I was one who defended TR. I wanted TR to do more, though. I just didn't see anybody besides Sanchez who seemed worth it, and I was on the fence on Sanchez because of the length of the contract and the injury risk. But this signing looked like a good deal to me by itself. At best Correia is a fourth starer and he got fourth starter money. He performed like a fourth starter on a decent team. Lots of guys on the market performed better at substantially higher cost. Lots of guys performed worse at higher cost. Few performed better at or below Correia's cost. I expect him to be about the same this year. He's been pretty consistent throughout his career. The difference is, this year he should really be the fourth starter, rather than the opening day starter like he was last year. That's huge.

AJ is a good receiver and handler of pitchers. His other defensive skills have slipped over the past few years, however. He's especially poor on the running game. For these reasons and age, I would prefer Salty, but maybe he's out of their price range. An AJ/Pinto platoon would be my second choice.

He's way undervalued imho. He had his share of rookie-like struggles in 2013, especially early. But he settled down and made a lot of plays we haven't seen made around here since Gagne. His bat makes him more of a stop gap than a star. But he is serviceable, as long the other eight guys are productive. BTW, still waiting for Nick to acknowledge that he overperformed spring training predictions of total collapse at the SS position.

I'm not sure they're done with signing guys. By my calculations, they still have around $28 M to spend on a catcher and another arm. I don't think the catcher will be that expensive. But I do like Hughes' upside. Not only because of park effects but also defense. Even the best pitchers struggle with Derek Jeter at short and Curtis Granderson in center. Since he's not a huge strikeout guy, he'll need to get more outs behind him. And I expect him to do so with the Twins.

It's Hughes. 3-year deal, announced tonight by several sources, including Phil miller:

Scott Baker is a good man and a good pitcher. He would be cheaper and likely better than Mike Pelfrey. The Twins soured on him because he refused to pitch like Anderson wanted. His out pitch is a high fastball. Without it, he's a 5 ERA pitcher. With it, he's a 4 ERA pitcher. It seems his pitching coach would rather have a 5 ERA pitcher who keeps the ball down than a 4 ERA pitcher who uses his out pitch. For this reason, I highly doubt he signs with the Twins. And it's probably for the best because I'm eager to see him have a healthy season for a team who appreciates a guy who gets outs however he can.

Trevor May, Aaron Hicks, Kohl Stewart, Jon Gonsalves

I'm sure they're considering him. But I hope it's a fall-back option in case they can't come to terms with guys on their short list (Arroyo, Garza, Kazmir, etc.). Also, if they sign one of those guys, I'd hate it if they signed Pelfrey as well. I think Gibson is a better bet than Pelfrey this year, and he has upside and costs the minimum.

I would agree, with one qualification: He has a chance to be a better defender. Doumit is too big and slow to be an effective backstop. Hermann is smaller and more agile, with better catching tools. You put Doumit's hit tool on a good defensive catcher and you have something like Salty. Now, I don't think Hermann has Salty upside, especially with power numbers. And Salty is a much better defender now and in the future than Hermann will ever be. But I do think Hermann can be a more effective back-up/utility catcher than Doumit.

Relievers like Atcher are a dime a dozen. Fryer is basically a better hitting version of Butera, who proved his worth on the trade market last year.

Arroyo and one of Garza, Nolasco or Kazmir.

He has Ricky's legs, Torii's outfield tools, and Eric Davis's hitting tools. Pretty exciting.

If anything, relievers need better command than starters because they have less margin of error when they come in. It's the primary reason Deduno never made it as a reliever but he does OK as a starter.

A good problem to have. Rosario spent some time in the AFL in left field. That might become his ultimate destination if Dozier continues to progress or Polanco can't handle short. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts the year at AA, but quickly progresses to AAA, especially if they want to try him in left for a while. He hit .284/.330/.412 there in 313 PAs in 2013. It's not like he dominated or anything. If he dominates, he can move quickly.

I wouldn't go that far. But depth is good, especially at catcher, where guys tend to get hurt. A lot.

I don't get the angst. He was the starting catcher for a playoff team in the IL that used 20 starting pitchers, while hitting .704. I'm sure they'll sign a veteran to start. They'll keep either Fryer or Hermann as the back-up, and put Pinto in the starting spot in Rochester. I don't think they consider either Hermann or Doumit catchers. They're utility guys who can catch. But we've seen what happens to the pitching staff when Doumit catches. Hermann is a little better. Pinto is a little better than Hermann defensively, but he still has a lot of rough edges to file off in AAA. Fryer is now the best defensive catcher in the system above A ball. He's the reason they traded Butera. The only risk is to a roster spot, which is no big deal. AAAA guys get added and subtracted from the 40-man all the time.