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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    This. The best stat is staff FIP, which, admittedly is not a good measure if you're Mike Aviles catching the best staff in baseball. But over a 10 career with a staff full of pre-arbitration pitchers, it works for me in Suzuki's case.
  2. cmathewson
    OK, there are always risks. But the risk is about the same as the risk of not signing him. What if we don't sign him? Well, then it's possible injuries at AAA will force us to move an arm up who isn't ready and it practically wrecks his career. If the risk of signing him is the same as the risk of not signing him, for all intents and purposes, there's no risk. Now, please don't get me started on the risk of failing to not sign him.
  3. cmathewson
    Also, the argument that the Twins have had a poor record with second round picks doesn't work. Until recently, a second round pick was in the low 100s, with he long sandwich round and the Twins picking in the high 20s. Since the new structure, the Twins have drafted these guys in the 30s and 40s: Jose Berrios; Ryan Eades. Berrios is a top 100 prospect. Eades could become one when his arm recovers from Friday night college duty. Yeah, Drew is an upgrade over Florimon, all things considered. But not as big an upgrade as some people think, when you factor in defense. And it is an open question whether he will continue to be an upgrade over Santana in a year or two. You could sign him to a two-year deal. But is it worth giving up a draft pick in the 30s for a two-year rental? It's a push, at best. I don't care about the dollars. It's not my money. Will he make the team better in the short and long run, all things considered? Again, a push at best.
  4. cmathewson
    The Matt Guerrier fan club, all of four members, two of whom are just radio listeners since they went into the home.
  5. cmathewson
    True snow is white, but snow is also black.
  6. cmathewson
    I wouldn't rule out a corner job. He has the raw power. If he improves his pitch selection, he could be a decent corner guy, with his glove and arm as value adds.
  7. cmathewson
    If the old shoe is a 35 year old reliever with a career ERA+ of 120, and he is healthy, he could beat out the 25 year old with the career ERA+ of 98. I don't think Guerrier or Santana are the "wow" impending signings. I think we are talking about one of the guys who requires draft compensation. That's why they opened up a spot on the 40 man roster, by moving Albers to Korea.
  8. cmathewson
    Well, apparently you know whom to sign instead with the pool of money they had. Or, maybe you would prefer to sign nobody. In the absence of an alternative, it's just whining.
  9. cmathewson
    Minor league contracts have zero downside. There's just no reason to complain about a minor league contract. It says nothing about any other deal they are working on. It comes without a commitment. If the player sucks, see ya later. If the player returns to his former self, it's all upside.
  10. cmathewson
    The most important thing a catcher can do is manage a pitching staff. The results in Oakland speak for themselves, especially considering the churn they have in that rotation. That's what Suzuki brings. It's also Pinto's weakness. So they complement each other well. And Suzuki hits waaaay better than Drew ever has. Drew's career OPS is below .500. Suzuki's is .685.
  11. cmathewson
    The rush was mostly unnecessary. The Twins had traded two center fielders in the off season, leaving the system as a whole a little thin at the top end. Coming into spring training, they expected Mastroianni to take the job and Hicks to maybe get a midseason call-up. That plan was derailed by two events: Hicks raked in spring training and Masto broke his leg on the last day of spring. Lacking a quality replacement for Mastro, they were forced to go with Hicks. I say it was unnecessary because they did not have a back-up plan in case of injury. Well, they did, but it was Clete Thomas. And that was the mistake. They should have signed someone better than Clete to replace Revere. If Hicks earned his way up misdseason, great. But don't force it. But they were extremely hopeful Hicks would be able to make the jump over AAA. Given his history, it was a long shot from the start. I remember his first day like it was yesterday: Verlander threw him one big hook after another that Pitch FX said were six inches outside and the ump called him out on strikes three times. After that, he expanded the strike zone so bad he couldn't hit anything for 10 days, until Bruno got him back in the groove with the plate discipline that is the foundation of his game. The fact that he recovered from the worst opening to a season that I've ever seen (in the lead-off role no less), makes me confident he can do this. Hopefully this year. But please, not out of spring training. Give him two months to rake at AAA and then bring him up.
  12. cmathewson
    So he plays in 67 games, and has an Aaron Hicks-style slump in the first 14. That leaves 53 games to get his average up to .254 from .100. In other words, he slumped for two weeks and hit over .300 the rest of the way. Two weeks of adjustment is hardly something you would base a rating like this on.
  13. cmathewson
    Why indeed? Well, it was because he had a two-week slump after he got called up to AA. That's the longest slump of his career so far. I haven't looked, but I venture a guess that the other guys on the list have had similar slumps. Buxton hasn't yet, but otherwise, it seems pretty silly to drop a guy so far because he had a slump in an otherwise extraordinary year.
  14. cmathewson
    Well, in his case, he has had some elbow issues. Reports are he has been pitching with a partially torn UCL for some time. That is like Garza, who has a screw holding his UCL to the bone. They are both ticking time bombs. More innings means more wear and tear.
  15. cmathewson
    Again, he hit .340 as a 20-year old in a league full of college kids.
  16. cmathewson
    For a 20 year old to put up a .915 OPS with 19 HRs in 67 games in AA is not struggling. The last time the Twins have had a 20 year old put up comparable numbers as AA, he was the consensus number 1 overall prospect in baseball. Of course, I'm talking about Mauer's .853 in 2003. The difference is, Mauer got his numbers through OBP (.400), whereas Sano got his numbers through slugging (.571). One other thing: Sano's numbers at Fort Myers were off the charts .320/.424/.655/1.079. Relative to that league, where offense goes to die, it's like a 1.200 OPS. By contrast, Joe's first half of his 20-year old year, he put up a pedestrian .807 OPS. Sano only "struggled" in AA in reference to his otherworldly numbers at high A. He should be at least a top 5 prospect.
  17. cmathewson
    Yep. You're right. Good point.
  18. cmathewson
    Based on his history, health is relatively good. The question is whether that will continue. Is he a ticking time bomb? The Twins had the same issue with Garza. In that sense, a 3-year deal is more palatable than Garza's four-year deal. Personally, I would do it.
  19. cmathewson
    1. The Twins need a right-handed power bat off the bench. 2. Chris Colabello is probably not the guy (long swing, poor plate coverage, mistake hitter). 3. If you take Colabello out of the equation, Romero is the best in-house option right now. 4. The Twins need to make room for Sano at Rochester. All these points lead to the reporter's conclusion that Romero is the guy, assuming he can play first base. My thinking is the Twins will sign a free agent instead. The list of right-handed power bats on the free agent market includes Morales, Cruz and Wells. As these guys go into spring training without contracts, I can see the Twins signing one of them to a one-year bargain contract. My money is on Wells, who could push Willingham to DH against left-handed starters and can serve as a corner defender late in games. That would push Romero back to Rochester and Sano to New Britain, at least to start the season.
  20. cmathewson
    Berardino did quote Ryan as saying that some of the remaining free agents have draft compensation issues, "which is scaring away other teams" [emphasis mine]. The two left with those issues are Morales and Drew.
  21. cmathewson
    I'd like a right handed power bat, and there are a few left. It looks like we can get a bargain.
  22. cmathewson
    It is a simple majority of the remaining 2/3, because Hennepin County is the most populous county in the state and has the four largest mall in the state, the largest mall in the world, the largest airport in the five-state region, three sports teams, and more bars and restaurants than any other county in the state. But a lot of people who spend money in that county are not from that county. Many are not from the state or even the country. So it is at least an exaggeration to say Hennepin County tax payers paid for the stadium. When you factor in the Twins contribution, it isn't even half of the total.
  23. cmathewson
    I don't think you can apply one model for all players. I agree that they need to learn up here. But not to the point of permanently damaging their confidence or stunting their growth. This is one area where I defer to the coaches and scouts to know better than I do. There are obvious cases, like Bartlett, who had two consecutive years with an OBP over .400 at AAA before even getting a chance. But most of the time, they let the player decide by dominating a level before moving up. Sometimes, need drives it. Last year, need definitely drove the center field decision. You can't say Hicks dominated AA. He certainly earned a one-level promotion between seasons. But not two levels. Yet, with the Mastro injury and his spring training play, they rushed him. He learned a lot. And he's resilient, so I don't think it did permanent damage. But it sure put the team in a hole. All this is hindsight. At the time, I was the biggest proponent of giving him a shot and helping him learn up here. It just didn't work out.
  24. cmathewson
    We don't want to rush people, as we did with Hicks and Arcia last year. But if they're ready, bring them up. I can see both Sano and Meyer up here by mid-year. And Buxton won't be far behind. We just need the infantry to hold the fort until the cavalry comes.
  25. cmathewson
    Good for him. Now, whom to sign with the open spot? Garza?
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