halfchest

The Harden comp was more about injury than performance I guess. Brett Anderson doesn't have near the upside that Harden did as you pointed out. Plus I think teams are a bit more hesitant about trading prospect than they were a few years ago. Like I said, no one in the top ten, I would say one major league reliever and a young high upside prospect someone in the 15-30 range preferably. You can tell me I told you so if I'm wrong but I don't think they're going to get much more than that in any trade that happens in the offseason. Maybe some team will overpay, I don't think the Twins will do that. If it were me, I'd hold onto him and try to trade him at the deadline next year, hoping he puts together 10-15 good starts prior to that. The fact that the A's are trying to get rid of him when they are in win now mode would make me nervous as well. He could be a major piece for them this season.

He's pitched 160 innings combined over the past 3 years . . . . let that sink in. Now breathe and think about what you would really give up for a guy who could be on his way to being the next rich harden. Sure he's worth giving something up for but no way do they touch anyone in the top ten for him. Just not worth it. Especially with how good our top ten really is. I would say let them pick a reliever and a low level prospect with upside. Maybe that dude we got for Butera. or one of our GCL starters that everyone is hyped up on.

That kinda stinks, his value really comes in that he can at least be a halfways decent catcher. I use the term halfways loosely.

I agree with the many that say we just roll with what we have, take our lumps. I might be ok with a couple one year deals to guys like Buck or Hart maybe but overall just let the kids play. Gotta hope some impending FA rebound and get their value so we can get something for them at the deadline. Our chances of contending appear quite slim even with the rotation improvements, a couple middling FA bats isn't going to change that. Might as well give guys like Parmelee, Plouffe, Colabello etc. one more chance. If they click then you might have a valuable piece for the future roster or a guy who could be a legitimate piece of a trade package.

I hate to be the we can't trade anyone guy. I'm open to trading especially for the right guy. Given injury history I don't see how BA can command too much. I don't like trading Gibson because I think his value is way too low. I'd rather keep him and gamble that he puts it together this year.

I guess with most of our top prospects being on the offensive side and many of them close to ML ready like Arcia, Hicks, Pinto, Sano, and Rosario I'm not as worried about offense. Plus I just don't see an obvious signing that will help the team that much. The big names I don't want to spend on like Choo or Cano plus they're not all that realistic for us anyhow. A couple one year deals might be nice to strengthen the team a bit though. A catcher and a middle infielder maybe. Just not sure who that would be. If the teams gonna drop more money especially long term I'd rather it be on a starting pitcher.

eh, I don't know how much affect it has. Sucks that if we negotiate we would have to fly him to Minnesota to negotiate in the winter. Small side note: This is another reason Nishioka not working out kinda sucks. Had he worked out and been our starting SS or 2B right now we would have a nice guy to assist in getting other Japanese stars to sign here. Now it kinda looks like a black mark and the Japanese stars may blame his lack of success on the Twins, even if that's far from the truth.

I'm back and forth on Garza for many of the reasons listed here. We have the money but next year is very interesting. Lester, Bailey, Scherzer, Masterson are all scheduled to be free agents. I probably like them all more than Garza, problem is they're likely going to cost more plus a draft pick or prospects if we trade for them and good prospects not getting them for parmelee and plouffe, sorry. I'm betting Lester and Scherzer sign extensions soon. Just a guess with the Tigers clearing cash and the BoSox losing Salty and Ellsbury they have money to burn. If Bailey stays with Reds he could end up being closer to 25 million a year than the 15 it would require to sign Garza. Masterson might be nice but again, it's a long time between now and free agency 2014. I guess if Garza is willing to sign for very similar to what we gave Nolasco, 4 years, plus option at a slightly higher AAV ( like 4/56 or 4/60) then I would be all over it. That's 34 million committed to 3 pitchers per year, not too bad to get 60% of your rotation for 35% of your payroll . Considering the youth coming up, it seems like a decent gamble as they'll all be nearing the end of their deals before our prospects hit arbitration. Worst case is you trade one of them or if Hughes starts to suck you move him to the bullpen to open up a spot. Garza Nolasco Hughes Correia Gibson/Deduno/Worley/Diamond I assume at least one of the nine mentioned above starts the year on DL just law of averages stuff, etc. Then we can at least give an extended look at one more of Worley/Diamond/Deduno. If we sign Garza I assume Gibson starts in AAA due solely to him having an option remaining.

I saw that too, was just about to post it on here. If it's bullpen they want, it is bullpen they shall get. I think maybe Fien and a middling prospect? Maybe even Burton? I don't know none of our relievers should be off the table other than Perkins. The other guys are all expendable/replaceable. Looks like the A's are in win now mode so would want contributors. Prospect would maybe have to be a piece they believe could help soon or now as well.

That's a really interesting/important take on Worley. I loved the trade with him coming over last year with May. Was obviously disappointed with his year but given his age/prior success it's hard to not give him another shot. I think most are right about Gibson starting out in AAA. That or I could see a guy like Worley or Diamond (out of options talent) get a phantom injury out of spring training to keep 'em around til a spot opens up. I'd really like one more look at Worley before shipping him off. At the very least maybe he could be part of a package for a better starter (homer bailey?) Obviously a small part of the deal but still use him for something.

Surprised by the 3 year commitment like the AAV for sure. With the Twins current and foreseeable payroll this is fine though. Could really capitalize on Hughes if he gets it going in Minnesota. Worst case he doesn't pan out and you can convert him to a reliever where he's been successful in the past. Expensive for a reliever but could still show value there. That's a worst case scenario though. I'm gonna hope for 3 years of around a 4.00 ERA

Dang, I'm not in love with either Nolasco or Hughes but I like the signings. Until other pitchers sign we really won't be able to fully judge these signings. If they could have gotten Garza and Kazmir for similar money I don't know, I'll be a bit disappointed but not devastated. We've talked ad nauseum about Hughes potential in Target Field and just a change of scenery in general. These guys together take up only 20 million per year for the next 3. Assuming we're done with starters from this point and will likely only sign short term deals on any position players I like how this sets us up for future FA spending if needed. Next year a lot of big names could be hitting FA including Scherzer, Homer Bailey, Kershaw (gonna re up though, Shields, Masterson, and Lester. Not to mention some guys with options like Gallardo, Morrow, Brett Anderson, Cueto, and Bllingsley all having options next year. Could be some nice names to spend on next year. If the twins show enough improvement and some of the young prospects start to pan out, Minnesota could suddenly become a nice destination.

Agreed, It's either going to take one of our better major league ready/close to ML ready like Pinto/Rosario/Hicks/Arcia or a couple of our high upside low level guys like Thorpe/Berrios, etc. Maybe some combination. I like the idea of getting Bailey, really wish Rosario wasn't getting suspended, he may have been good enough to be the centerpiece and between Dozier and then guys like Santana polanco coming up soon I'd feel comfortable letting him go. Also yes, Dozier isn't a huge trade chip until he puts together a year that looks like his June-October did this year. I also feel like Gibson isn't a huge trade chip because I think his ML stint will be held against him. I like his chances to figure it out better and be a good mid rotation guys. I wonder if a Rosario/Berrios would be good enough with maybe a major league bullpen piece like Burton or Fien thrown in.

I like the idea of seeing what taking on Phillips contract does to a deal. Does us taking on that contract make them willing to accept a lesser package of prospects? Not sure what it would take but just a couple thoughts This is why it sucks that Rosario was suspended. He would be such a nice major league ready prospect that is somewhat expendable if you count on Dozier to continue to play well. I wouldn't have a problem dealing Gibson except I feel like we'd be selling low. If they are still viewing him as a top 50 prospect who just struggled in his first taste of the majors then yes, I'd consider it. It's tough to deal anyone really because we can potentially upgrade at every single position it seems like. Tough to deal Arcia because we dont' have a lot of power corner outfielders in the pipeline. obviously Sano,Buxton, Meyer are off the table. Gibson's value is low, Rosario suspended, Pinto is our only major league ready catcher who has starting potential. Last, no way you can get this deal done unless Bailey signs an extension. We don't need Bailey for this year, we need him for 2015 and beyond. If we can get him for one good prospect (Rosario, Arcia, Pinto) and maybe some filler and he signs a reasonable extension. It might be worth it. If he has another good year and hits free agency he could be commanding 25 million plus a year.

I don't think it's a perfect comparison though. Number 1 the royals are stupid - joking, kind of there's a reason they've been awful for like 30 years. Number 2 Shields had 2 years of control as opposed to 1. They're awfully similar pitchers if you look at the numbers. No denying that Price is a bit better and 3 years younger than Shields. Still I wonder with the looming 150 million or more extension that would need to be signed if that drives the prospect price down a bit. Similar to when we dealt Johan. I don't see how any deal gets done for Price if he doesn't sign an extension. All this said, it'd be awfully tough to pull off this deal without including one of Meyer, Sano, Buxton. Especially with Rosario getting suspended. One guy we're forgetting is Pinto who was just rated #5 in our system by BP. Talk about selling high on a guy. Maybe a deal centered around Pinto, Berrios, Gonsalves or Thorpe? That's a lot of top guys and creates a gaping hole at Catcher for us but also brings in a top 5 legit Ace. It really depends on if they're wiling to deal him for guys that are a few years out. This also guts our pitching prospects but creates less of a need for them too.

Totally agree, they are currently more sure things than Tanaka in my book and you could probably get both for about the price you'd pay Tanaka. I'd like to see them put a bid in on Tanaka and try to spend 100-125 posting fee + contract on him for a 6-7 year deal. I could live with that. Not convinced he's the second coming of Yu Darvish yet.

Im not sure but i dont think u can use performance stats like era in contracts. They get around it with games played ip and bonuses for silver slugger cy young etc. i dont think u see any bonuses or vesting options based on era or homers etc. just games ip ab Im not a huge fan of arroyo but could handle him on a two year with vesting option

Can't really trade Gibson at this point. His upside is worth more than what he would bring in a trade at this point. He could be as good as a #2 and his floor (assuming health) is probably a #4 workhorse. With his solid GB rates he should be a guy that can give you 200 innings of around a 4.00 ERA. If his K rate translates pretty well to the majors he could be more around a 3.00 ERA and a nice top of the rotation arm. With his bad first MLB performance his value is low but he's a guy a pitching starved team needs to hold onto and hope for the best.

Agreed you can't think Pinto is going to hit like he did in September but his track record shows he's capable of a nice line in the majors and is much closer to what he did in September than what he's doing in 25 winter ball at bats. I'm almost more interested to hear how he's doing behind the plate and how many innings he's getting in at catcher.

I like Floyd as that third guy you take a flyer on. Nice upside as a good mid rotation guy. Should he be a solution to our rotation woes overall, hell no. But he would be a good 2nd or 3rd signing. Getting these guys gets you an in if they do have a good year. The Twins reportedly have a nice clubhouse atmosphere that could/should lead to guys wanting to play there. Say a guy like Floyd comes back and pitches like he did presurgery he might be more likely to sign a longer term deal. Floyd isn't a top of the rotation guy but I think he's better than his numbers. He's got decent K/BB numbers and you have to think pitching in us cellular doesn't help him either. I had kinda forgotten about Floyd. Might be a nice guy to bring into the fold. Nice potential.

I agree with the above, great question. I hadn't even considered it. I'm a Joe apologist though, I like the hometown angle all that sappy stuff. However, you'd have to give it thought when it comes to Fielder. Do they still include the 30 million for Fielder? Because that would make a bit of a difference too. Or because they're getting paid about the same is it a straight up 1 for 1 no money deal? I can't justify Kinsler though, especially with Dozier looking pretty good last year and some decent prospects getting close. How about Andrus for Mauer? Assuming the Rangers didn't just do the Kinsler deal though? I would be curious if he came up in conversation between the two teams at all. I would have to think long and hard on that one. You lose a lot of offense there but then you've got a stud young SS for the next decade.

I'm not too heartbroken. When the word came out earlier this week that he reached out to the padres and giants I kind of crossed him off my list. He would have been a nice third piece upside guy but not a huge loss on a one year deal. Now had he signed a 1 year plus option deal I would be a bit more disappointed. Still like our shot of grabbing 1 of Garza, nolasco, jiminez and then 1 of arroyo, kazmir to anchor the rotation. Then we can still take a flyer on a high upside reclamation project like Johan, Fausto (he'll always be Fausto to me), or Halladay.

What about Elvis Andrus, he's coming off a down year, The Rangers allegedly would like to shed some payroll by selling either Kinsler or Andrus. He's got a huge contract is the scary part but he's only 24, plays stellar defense and is a career .350 OBP guy. Thinks of a top four in 2015 of Buxton,Andrus, Mauer, Sano? Can the Twins afford to have a guy that has 15 million locked up for the next 10 years? Figuring price per wins increases and he gets better as he hits his prime I think it's a worthwhile risk. He's been pretty consistent prior to this last year and his WAR has valued him at 14 million or more in 4 of 5 years in the league. Not sure what it would take to get him but I have to think it's cheaper than Profar due to his contract alone. Wonder if the Rangers would bite on Arcia and a high upside low level guy. I hate dealing Arcia as he's our only corner outfield power bat near the majors and I think his value only goes up next year. Same could be said for Andrus though and finding an Andrus in FA is going to be much harder than finding a corner outfielder with a power bat.

That is pretty crazy. Seems like the smart move is to keep the system going that way too. Just seems cheaper/easier to pick up decent free agent position players than pitchers. I mean look at Willingham. Paid him 7 million a year compared to 5.5 million for Correia. Willingham was one of the top 5 outfield free agents that year right? Probably top 2-3 corner guys. Correia was kind of a bargain basement pitcher and he got dang near the same cash. Even though Correia worked out well it still shows that it's easier to get starting pitching from your own system and supplement position players with free agency. I'm pretty sure a little research would back this up too.

I would agree but it seems like a lot of these guys never actually make it to free agency. I guess i would advocate for not spending so much this year that those guys are off the table for us financially. One long deal with a guy like garza wouldnt limit us from still trying for one of them next year.