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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I know you frequently warn about sample sizes, and it's often a fair warning, but I don't think it's necessarily appropriate here. There are appropriate times to simply favor the hot hand, and this might be one of them, and citing the slash lines here is an acceptable form of evidence that I wouldn't want to discourage. (Obviously we and the Twins can consider more evidence than that, if you have any to offer. But from my eye test, it's not as if Adrianza has been taking garbage at-bats or anything, and Astudillo doesn't have much of a track record of success either.) They're not deciding who to release. It's just bench spot vs. AAA. Those slash stats, combined with the fact that Astudillo has options, can't pinch run, and may be no better than 3rd on our depth chart at any position -- I think it's potentially a valid choice to send him down soon. He can always be recalled later.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree, I wouldn't expect them to send down Astudillo as soon as they activate Garver. But assuming Garver gets through his rehab with no trouble, it may come shortly after -- like at the end of next week, when they plan/hope to reactivate Pineda (June 7-8).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a pretty bold forecast, for a guy who's never made a relief appearance in his MLB career. I'm not sure it's that straightforward, either in terms of performance or effects on his knee.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't doubt Pineda's knee is actually sore. But I'm guessing lots of ballplayers experience similar soreness without it necessarily warranting an IL trip. Whether or not to put a player on the IL is the subjective part, and all kinds of factors can influence that subjective decision: the ready availability of a replacement, innings control, upcoming off days, other roster moves, etc.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It doesn't sound like Garver would return before Saturday: https://www.mlb.com/news/mitch-garver-heads-to-rehab-assignment I would assume Cruz is ahead of that, but the last I read, he didn't swing a bat all weekend. (He previously took batting practice last week, though, so maybe it was just extra rest once they decided they weren't going to activate him for Milwaukee?) https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-nelson-cruz-not-taking-swings-with-bat/
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps they figured they didn't need Cruz vs the White Sox (correct), and they were postponing his activation until they did this little starting pitcher dance with Pineda and Smeltzer? Although some might say we could have used him vs Milwaukee... Assuming they send down Smeltzer and activate Cruz before the Tampa series, that lets them keep Arraez, Astudillo, and all the current relievers on the roster too, until Garver or Pineda is ready to come back.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The primary factor is going to be population. Although I'll add that a fully new park has a different effect than a renovated one, even a well-regarded renovated one. And of course, it's a lot easier to fill a football stadium 8 times a year than a baseball stadium 81 times a year! The last place 2019 Royals are on track to out-draw the first place 2018 Chiefs in the next month. But I am sure there are plenty of other ways to measure the popularity of football over baseball in KC.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, good to hear that. Smeltzer could start tonight, then get sent back down after the game -- maybe for a Nelson Cruz activation, before our next game (Thursday)? Pineda would be eligible to return June 7, and we wouldn't need a 5th starter again until June 8 (although we wouldn't have needed one tonight either, if we had used Perez).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It scherly smeltz like that.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I mentioned in the other thread, but before this move, Pineda was on pace for 171.2 innings for the season, right around his career high (and way more than he's pitched the last 2 years, obviously!). Perez was on a similar near-career-high pace, since moving back into the rotation -- 193.1 innings. And Perez had a low innings year last year too, plus new mechanics/velocity this year. I wonder if they've been planning this for a few days -- Smelzter wasn't scheduled to start in AAA today, but presumably he could have already adjusted his throw day in preparation for this start.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The way the ball is flying in Rochester, it might be pretty disastrous to put him there if he's not ready. (According to xFIP, his improvement this season seems to be in HR rate.) Although yes, one has to wonder if he's stagnating a bit in AA. I think he still has enough to prove that it shouldn't be an issue. And the AA club has a new manager, pitching coaches, and trainer as compared to 2018, so he's already working with some new people, even at the same level.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, but Jay's done this before too. Last year, he had a 1.59 ERA through June 4th, and even a 2.84 ERA through July 24th. But his peripherals/RA9 were less than inspiring. I'm pretty much done paying attention to him until he dominates for a bit in peripherals, or he moves up a level.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a little backloaded, but the salary figure is only $35 mil AAV for 2019-2021. (The Nationals are responsible for any future signing bonus payments.) With deferrals, the present day value might even be about 10% lower. (MLB valued the original $210 mil deal at $191 mil for luxury tax purposes.) https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/ Still a lot of money, but worth it to a number of clubs (including Washington, which is why I wouldn't expect him to be traded).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, although the context of my post was that a 2.5 year contract isn't really "paying for an ace" as compared to the FA market. So we don't necessarily need to receive ace performance, or equal performance to the last 3 years, to make taking on the remaining 2.5 year deal worthwhile. The Astros didn't need Verlander to be an ace to justify their cost, for example. Although I'd guess the year 4-6 forecast is a bit better for guys that have been great over years 1-3.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, we don't have to play ourselves.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Ace money in average annual value, sure. But if you're trading for a guy, you're getting a significant discount in terms of years -- aces on the open market get 6-7 year guarantees, as opposed to the 2.5 years remaining on Greinke's deal.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Pro-ration would only matter for 2019 -- although even just a half-season of those two pitchers would add $35 mil to our 2019 payroll, putting us up around $155 mil. Strasburg and Scherzer are due a combined $61 mil AAV over the next 2.5-4.5 years. If Strasburg didn't opt out, we'd either have to slash significant payroll elsewhere or we'd be up over $180 mil for 2020. Even without Strasburg, Scherzer would push it to $155 mil.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not exactly true -- he's given up no earned runs in 5 of his last 7 (no runs at all in 4 of his 7). Still not sure if that's a meaningful accomplishment for a reliever. Jay hasn't pitched particularly well over that time: 7 G, 13.1 IP, 16 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 16 K, 2 HBP At least 2 baserunners in every appearance, .745 opponent OPS during this stretch, in a league with a .670 overall for the season Age 25, repeating AA... not to pick on Jay, but there's nothing to see here so far. That said, effective relievers can sometimes ascend rapidly, seemingly out of nowhere, so I'm sure Jay will continue getting chances with his pedigree. Unless someone takes him in Rule 5, he's controlled by the Twins through 2021, even without a 40-man roster spot.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    In context, I am not sure these numbers mean much. The KC metro is a million-plus less population than the Minneapolis metro, so we probably can't consider them on the same scale. Also, the 2011-2015 Twins attendance was almost certainly buoyed by the new ballpark, and the fact the team was consistently good for 10 years prior to that period (As opposed to the Royals, whose 1994-2012 era of suckiness is unmatched in Twins history.) Examples of different contexts: with a new ballpark and good teams, the 1973-1989 Royals were consistently great in attendance. Meanwhile, the Twins twice dropped out of the top 10 in AL attendance just 3 years after winning World Series titles in the Dome around that same era. Basically, I'd hesitate to pass judgment on any group of fans with this little data. (Except Yankees fans, of course -- no data required for that.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The list seems to be written from the perspective of whom the Padres might acquire. As a division rival who's more likely to hang in the race than the Giants, Arizona might find it extra hard to come to an agreement with San Diego about a non-rental asset like Greinke. Edit to add: the Padres are also on Greinke's no-trade list.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah, you left Pineda out of your original list:
  22. Otto von Ballpark
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Not my intent at all! Which post? Feel free to privaye message me. I just saw the name Greinke next to Bumgarner and Stroman without any qualifiers, and I didn't want folks to assume they were in an equal group of difficulty/likelihood -- not everyone is aware of the no-trade thing (it is somewhat unusual to see the Twins on such a list!).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    No need to make this personal. I shouldn't have invoked Scherzer, but suffice to say, I just wouldn't group Greinke alongside Bumgarner or Stroman, that's all. I think that overrates the likelihood of a Greinke trade to the Twins. We know the Twins are on his no trade list, for whatever reason, and MLBTR reported the no trade clause was a "major impediment" -- and even if you get past that, either the Twins have to take on significant salary or give up significant prospects to get Arizona to eat significant cash. So I'd leave Greinke in the longer shot group, for now. I'd put his teammate Robbie Ray in that primary group, though. FA after 2020 like Stroman.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, I think that group is only about $30 mil this year.
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