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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    There's no reason they couldn't sign Drew now and still target shortstops in the future, if a better or longer-term solution became available. 3/30 now is nowhere near stressing Twins future payrolls, and Drew's bat and glove look like they could play at multiple other positions too. Assuming that Drew is a better bet to perform well over the next 3 years than Florimon (pretty much indisputable, IMHO?), it actually decreases the possibility/necessity of a "panic move" at the position within the next few years. As far as Hardy being "only one example", the Twins have spent the last 3 seasons (and arguably the last 6) searching for a shortstop. It's not that easy to find them. Certainly not easy enough that the Twins should be passing up affordable and available FA options to give second or third chances to waiver wire fodder. Now, I don't have any strong feelings about Drew specifically, so if the Twins really think he's near a cliff or has lingering health issues, I am fine with passing on him. But the primary reason for passing on a FA upgrade at this position shouldn't be the modest cost or making a commitment to Florimon.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I assume you mean top 5 SS defensively, not overall. Outside of Simmons, I don't think there is that much separation among MLB SS defensively, so a higher ranking there means a lot less than a higher offensive ranking or overall ranking. Another way to look at it: even if you are fine with Florimon's defense and giving him another year, do you still think the Twins should make a competitive offer for Drew? If his market truly has thinned out, and we could steal him for less than widely reported (2/24, 3/30, maybe even another 1 year deal?), would you be willing to shelve the Florimon experiment?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't tease us -- tell us the store! Or are you trying to keep this amazing soap deal to yourself?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Those projection systems basically just regress to the mean. At that low on the spectrum (and Florimon's 2013 was pretty low), basically every player's mean projection is going to be a slight improvement. The projection systems aren't "picking up on something" in Florimon's record or anything -- it's just that they figure it would be hard for a MLB player to be worse than that. (Or if he is worse, he won't be a MLB player much longer.) Oliver actually projects him to the exact same OPS, and Steamer gives him an extra 9 points in OPS, which might be worth ~2 extra points on his OPS+. Not statistically significant, and basically a repeat of 2013. In addition to the above points about Gagne's age and MiLB numbers, Gagne had about half the MLB PAs at that point in his career as compared to Florimon.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It's been ticking a lot lately. 3 of his last 4 seasons have been ~220 IP type years, including last year. Garza and Nolasco have never touched that level (nor Pelfrey), and Jimenez did it twice back to back but followed up with his two worst MLB seasons.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Ervin Santana has posted a 5.00 ERA or higher in 3 out of 9 MLB seasons, so he's more like 2/3 good rather than 1/2. That said, a couple of those high ERA seasons are quite old now -- one of them was before Nolasco, Garza, or Jimenez had even pitched a full season in MLB. His trend is generally looking up -- 3 of his last 4 seasons are sub-4 ERA, with ~220 IP each of those seasons.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know if he was just trying to make his newscast more interesting, but I overheard Wolfson on the 9 PM news last night say that it was just "a few weeks ago" that they requested Ervin Santana's medical records, as evidence that the Twins are still active on the starting pitcher market. (Although I guess it was just 6 weeks ago that they signed Nolasco...) He also re-iterated that they are "in contact" with the agents for Garza and Johan Santana.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    There are SSs in that they exist, but next year's FA class doesn't look all that good at that position. Cabrera and Hardy are the only ones as good as Drew, I'd say. And pitching-wise, they are some really good ones, but I doubt all of them will reach FA, and as much as TR has restored some of my faith this offseason, no way do I see him outbidding everyone for an ace on the FA market: Kershaw, Lester, Scherzer, Shields. The Twins are looking at a likely non-competitive season in 2014 again, and it's a bit of a luxury because we don't "need" to fill every spot this offseason. But I'd rather use that as leverage than an excuse to wait. I'd make Drew a very competitive offer, as well as the remaining FA starters. Maybe you score one, boost the 2014 club a bit, and Minnesota starts to look like an even better destination for future FA; if not, no problem, try again next year.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Moot point now with Wolfson's update, but how is Ervin Santana not a pseudo ace/#2 like Garza/Bailey? Outside of a 2012 HR spike and his 2009 injury, he's been pretty darn good throughout his career. And he's been an absolute workhorse -- not only making starts, but also multiple 220+ IP seasons. Since 2008, Garza's got a 110 ERA+ versus Santana's 104, but Santana also has a 25 IP/season edge too. And of course they are going to cost more than Nolasco -- they have been far better pitchers than Nolasco. To me, if one is willing to spend 4/48 plus a fifth year option on Nolasco, he's your best starter under contract, and you still have payroll flexibility, you absolutely have to be willing to spend 4/60 plus option or even 5/75 on Garza or Santana. It will be interesting to see what they settle upon, but I hope the Twins didn't just settle on Nolasco as their "big sign" because he was willing to sign early, or that they don't have a new "cap" of 4/48 on what they think is reasonable for any FA contract.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Morris' "era" isn't 1979-1992. That's the exact prime of his career, and a textbook example of selective endpoints. Then you compare him to pitchers who debuted between 1970 and 1984 -- how did you come up with that? (Also, it appears to mean AFTER 1970 and BEFORE 1984, as Blyleven debuted in 1970 and Clemens debuted in 1984 and both of those guys beat Morris by a mile.) Look, I love me some Morris, I think Game 7 was great, and I wouldn't be upset to see him get in, but I don't think it's any kind of injustice. I mean, outside of his iconic moment, the best justification seems to be the HOF should have a starting pitcher debut in every X year period. (Anybody find a nice HOF list sorted by birth year?) There were a lot of great SP debuting in the 1960s and 1980s, they just seemed to skip debuts in the 1970s for the most part. Heck, even Morris didn't debut until 1977 or establish himself until 1979. The great lasting pitchers of the 1970s debuted in the 1960s, and the great lasting pitchers of the 1980s debuted in 1984 or later (or were holdovers from 1960s debuts). I don't know why that is, but if you look at yearly top 10 leaderboards at Baseball Reference, the late 70s / early 80s look a little thin. Heck, Morris doesn't even appear on many of those.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to contract, what do people think is realistic? MLBTR said this back in November: 3/33 looks like his floor, doesn't it?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    We'd all like to see a younger, better player, at every position -- the question is, where is that player going to come from? At SS, not from the Twins current minor league system, not in the next 3 years for sure. *Maybe* from the draft, but you can't really predict that (and it's dicey to draft for need), and it's doubtful a 2014 draftee would even be MLB ready until 2017 anyway. Free agency next year? Asdrubal Cabrera will be the big one, but how much will he cost? Will he even reach free agency? JJ Hardy is a decent alternative, but again, will he be available? What will he cost?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I am struggling to think of a 5/75 type deal that proved to be any kind of albatross. It just isn't that much money in modern MLB.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Wells was a trade (and a bad one), while Pujols and Hamilton cost $125-250 mil each. Don't think these pitchers are getting that money. Another Angels contract -- CJ Wilson -- might be the better comp. And it is a lot tougher for those level of deals to be albatrosses. We're talking a modest step up from Nolasco's deal here, not a mega-deal. If Nolasco is really worth 4/49 plus a 5th year vesting option, these guys could very well be worth 5/75.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Now, I'm not saying you have to go all-in on Garza now, but if he's legitimately interested in signing here for a reasonable market contract (i.e. above Nolasco's but less than Sanchez), I don't think the Twins can pass that up. Given the Twins record on free agents, and free agents alleged opinions about coming to Minnesota, this is not the kind of team that can afford to pass up opportunities like that because of our "success cycle" position, or because our roster is already stuffed with lesser pitchers.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually think just the opposite -- Garza seems to be getting underrated here. Offer 3/45 or walk away? That's nuts. Garza is almost certainly a lock for a 100-120 ERA+, as much as any pitcher in baseball. He only just turned 30, a full year younger than Nolasco. And his injuries the past two years have looked relatively minor (I wouldn't be surprised if they were related -- missing the end of 2012 contributed to his strain in spring training 2013 -- and he seemed to bounce back from them just fine). If you're willing to give 4/49 plus a vesting 5th year to Nolasco, who looks like a 85-100 ERA+ guy, and he's easily your best pitcher currently under contract, and you've got payroll flexibility, you should absolutely be willing to go 4/60 plus a vesting 5th for Garza, I think. Probably even higher. The Twins rotation depth is indeed improved, but it isn't all that great yet. These guys have performances all over the map, and sadly even the better ones (Nolasco, Correia) seem to top out at 100 ERA+. And there isn't that much immediate help from the minors either -- Meyer strikes me as the only guy with Garza upside who could establish himself in MLB within the next 4 seasons.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Just curious: have you seen much of Simmons or Iglesias? I haven't. Simmons is off the charts in the numbers. In ~200 career games, he rates out at 31-40 runs saved per 1200 innings in the two defensive metrics (TZ and DRS) listed at B-Ref. Iglesias is much more conservative, 5-10 career rates per 1200 innings, with less than half Simmons' sample size. Florimon has a more comparable sample, with 0-14 career rates per 1200 innings. Interesting that all 3 of the Twins primary infielders (Florimon, Dozier, and Plouffe) fared much better in the DRS figure as opposed to TZ last year, all covering decent sample sizes (120+ games). Not sure if that suggests a team or park bias, or which way such a bias would be skewing.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    2 for 48, it appears. Throw that out, and he OPS'd .676 for the rest of the season. ZiPS had him projected for .672 before the season (85 OPS+) -- might be the goal to maintain that for all of 2014. That would get him near Revere & Span territory, offensively. However, I am not sure whether to be pleased by his extra power (.146 ISO, up to .176 after the 2-for-48, vs only .126 projected) or discouraged by the lack of walks (.067 isolated discipline, only .054 after the 2-for-48, vs .082 projected). Something tells me power is never going to be a plus tool for him, so I would have liked to see him really establish that plate discipline.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I was looking at the monthly splits. Interestingly his BB and SO rates weren't all that different during that slump at AA. The difference was his batting average and power. Compare that to his MLB slump, where the Ks were plentiful and BBs gradually dried up...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Hicks last two months of high A were just as bad as his first month there: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar&type=bgl&year=2011 And in AA, while he did heat up in July/August, he was perfectly respectable for the entire season, outside of his second month there (May): http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar&type=bgl&year=2012 Interestingly, May was the one bad month of his second best minor league season too, 2010 at low A: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar&type=bgl&year=2010
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Good points! Much better stated than my post above.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm sure the article is bad and don't intend to read it, but your criticism of the Loney deal could easily be applied to the Nolasco deal (particularly if you prefer ERA+/rWAR to FIP/fWAR). Our biggest/best acquisition was a 1.8 WAR SP (about the same as Correia last year) who just had his best season since 2008. This offseason looks great compared to past poor FA offseasons, and it looks pretty good considering how awful our SP has been the past two years. But objectively, it looks like we've just removed a few negative value players, rather than truly adding any plus value guys. Considering the Twins position, that's not necessarily bad, but I probably wouldn't rank their offseason yet as anything more than middle of the pack.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, they did delay Worley's arb eligibility, and it is pretty clear he was not healthy or at least not adequately recovered due to his early shutdown. So I am not sure his situation is quite comparable to Correia.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I had to fact-check a couple of my favorite Metrodome memories in that thread. And I've gone to a lot fewer games than these guys have played, so I will give them a pass!
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