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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Krivsky? I saw his name in the Wily Mo Pena thread, but not here...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    But it's not like we would lose Trevor May if we brought in Masterson or Anderson. Depending on how things shake out, there still might be a rotation spot up for grabs even with a FA SP addition. And there will probably be some important spots open in the bullpen too, if May has no further business in AAA. Taking a one-year risk on Masterson or Anderson, while Trevor May continues his MLB acclimation as a reliever and 6th starter, might be a better use of resources for the 2015 Twins than a longer-term deal (and loss of 2nd round pick) for Ervin Santana. Even if Masterson/Anderson are "riskier" than Santana in terms of median projected health/performance for 2015. Given all the other factors, "riskier" in that context does not necessarily equal "worse."
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say they weren't a risk. Every transaction has some level of risk. I said I am not convinced that Masterson or Anderson on one-year deals are TOO risky.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    MLBTR report: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/twins-win-bidding-for-hyeon-jong-yang.html
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    In terms of expected contract, MLB Trade Rumors had Hunter #33 on their "Top 50 FA" list, right next to AJ Burnett (who recently signed probably below market at 1/8.5), and sandwiched near Cuddyer (2/21 plus comp pick) and Billy Butler (3/30) or Nori Aoki (predicted 2/16). So the rumors of 1/8 or 1/10 for Hunter seem pretty accurate. Berardino reported the Twins would be offering less ($5 mil?), which I guess is good in that it will hopefully keep us from signing him. But it would also appear that perhaps the Twins are only budgeting that reduced amount for an outfielder, which could lead to being shut out again. For reference, MLBTR predicts 1/8.5 for Alex Rios, and 1/12 (or perhaps 3/30) for Colby Rasmus.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I generally only see his tweets here at Twins Daily, and they've always seemed pretty accurate. Out of curiosity, I search for all of his Twins news/rumors tweets: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mntwins%20from%3Adarrenwolfson&src=typd
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    But even then, they weren't "extra" runs over what a replacement would allow. Even the very best bullpen in the league would have allowed 8 inherited runners to score, vs the 16 from this group. It will be interesting to see what happens with these guys -- it might be best for us to move on, but that would be commiting to a pretty massive bullpen overhaul, not sure if the Twins would actually do that.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    But I think pythag record breaks down a bit as a meaningful predictor when it is used over small samples of games containing major outlier run differentials, no?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Wolfson is a local TV sports reporter that actively covers the team. If you don't consider him to be reliable, you're free to provide evidence. But the fact that he used the most immediate means to disseminate his information (Twitter) does not alone make him unreliable. If he repeats this information on the TV news tonight, will that suddenly make him more reliable, in your eyes? My "already failed" comment did not apply to the present time, but the future time that posited, where our choices for starting LF may be Parmelee or Hunter. If that's the choice we are left with, I am pretty sure that would count as another offseason where we failed to adequately address the OF.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I shouldn't have waded into the years comparison, it wasn't really my intent, sorry. Although after 2012 there was some similar optimism around here -- Hendriks, Deduno, and Devries were the three starters of note (with Gibson returning from injury), Parmelee was getting props for his September steadiness, and people were plugging in Hicks' ZIPS projections and saying, "hey! this might get better!" Obviously I like our current team better, but just some words of caution. I do think perhaps this 2014 Twins lineup was more prone to feast or famine, and I'm not sure that's all due to luck. As I mention above, the author made some specific claims about our 2nd half pythagorean wins, but almost all of that underperformance was due to the extreme run differentials in those two games.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the explanation. The Twins scored the most runs and had the highest wRC+ in the league in the 2nd half last year -- there were definitely some encouraging performances, but luck probably played a positive role in that. Basically every returning hitter in the lineup except Mauer and Suzuki roughly equaled or exceeded their career BEST hitting performances by wRC+ (over any similar size sample) in that second half. And even Mauer and Suzuki roughly equaled their career marks over the second half. While I am encouraged by this group, I'd argue that their good luck is probably just as "unrepeatable" as some of the bad luck you cite. (Hughes' 0.51 BB/9 is another one that sticks out to me!)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It should be noted, if you take out our blowout wins on August 3 and August 22, our August-September run differential is -44, identical to 2012.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, they can still remove guys to draft someone. They just can't remove any of the guys they just added.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The report is that the Twins are pushing hard for Hunter. (And it's coming from a reliable source, and it's not the first report connecting them.) If the report is accurate, we know their level of interest. And if the options somehow come down to Hunter or Parmelee (or hope for another guy to jump up from AA), the Twins front office has already failed. If you're going to Hunter as a last resort, what's the point in going after him at all?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't want to make Arcia a platoon player before his 24th birthday. Also, according to most measures, Hunter's defense was just as bad as Arcia's last year. And in LF -- the point isn't to "not be worse than last year" -- the point is to get notably BETTER than last year.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not completely against the idea of Hunter. He has sported a very consistent bat. I think you would need to have some insight that would tell you the defensive metrics (and the fans' eyes) have been wrong the last couple years, though. I don't trust the Twins have that insight, at least not at this time. (Preferably you'd also want him on a team-friendly deal.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    But haven't we all been thinking that TR and Molitor wouldn't bring Hunter aboard in the first place? If they do the opposite action there, how can we then assume they will trade him when necessary? Hunter coming here would not be for a similar price or role to Kubel, Bartlett, etc. He's going to be pushing $10 mil a year and starting in the OF. I don't think he would necessarily be cast aside so easily. For that matter, why are we assuming the Twins would only sign him to a one-year deal?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    But wouldn't a Hunter signing be evidence of a pretty big disconnect, one that the new manager hire was supposed to help address? And I think your scenarios are pretty limited in scope. If we're right about his abilities, he may not have much of a trade market. Or we're right about his abilities, will the rookie manager keep running him out to the field anyway in deference to his leadership? Especially if we are surprisingly in contention despite him.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    If you think the Twins W-L record will be better off by signing Scherzer or Lester rather than Masterson or Anderson, I don't think you will find much disagreement here. Still doesn't mean that Masterson or Anderson are bad deals or too risky.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the hope. But when you have thus far exclusively asked out girls you knew in 4th grade, despite a large population of other girls in your high school, I am not sure I can give you the benefit of the doubt that you're really considering all of your options. I like to imagine that somewhere right now, teenagers are using the Twins coaching hires as a metaphor for asking girls out...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, pretty much the entirety of that pythag shortfall could be attributed to their massive blowout wins on August 3 and August 22 -- those two games featured by far their largest run differentials of the Twins season (either wins or losses).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier posted a career high OPS/OPS+ at age 27 -- and you're expecting "a bit more" from him? Suzuki posted a career high OPS+ (by a good margin) at age 30, Pinto was a league-average hitter, and Fryer only got 81 PA -- and you're expecting "quite a bit more" from the catcher position? Also, you have high expectations for Mauer and Arcia based on August and September... but you ignore that Dozier and Suzuki had second half OPS figures much closer to their career averages than their first half marks.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You posted this in another thread, and I corrected it there too, but apparently you didn't see it. First off, looking at game logs, from July 11 until the end of the season, that trio only allowed 16 inherited runners to score. Not sure how you come up with 21 for a subset of that. Second, even though "awful" period you define (Aug. 1 - Sep. 15) contains all 16 of those runs, they received a total of 39 inherited runners during that span. That's 41%, which is indeed worse than the Twins season percentage of 31%, or the 2014 AL rate of 29%, but it only represents a difference of 3 runs worse than average over that span.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    For fun, comparing past Sickels lists to the 2015 one A- or better: 2009: 0 2010: 0 2011: 0 2012: 0 2013: 1 2014: 2 2015: 2 B+ or better 2009: 2 2010: 1 2011: 3 2012: 1 2013: 6 2014: 4 2015: 5 B or better 2009: 4 2010: 2 2011: 7 2012: 4 2013: 9 2014: 6 2015: 6 B- or better 2009: 9 2010: 6 2011: 10 2012: 13 2013: 13 2014: 11 2015: 14 C+ or better 2009: 21 2010: 18 2011: 22 2012: 24 2013: 23 2014: 24 2015: 24
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Plus a lot of gum. All-you-can-chew.
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