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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    No. There is no disagreement about the number of balls he has caught. That is incorrect. There is disagreement about how to value the balls he has caught or failed to catch, but that itself does not imply inaccuracy. You get the same differences between eye tests too, it doesn't mean all eye tests are inherently inaccurate.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    No, two metrics have different estimates of his defensive runs saved.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, didn't mean to misquote. It was a legit misread, that is all. Lineup rotations exist, whether you want to ackowledge them or not. Obviously they are not set in stone, and can shift for good performance, matchups, injuries, etc.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily, the new wild card game guarantees a win or go home game, no tie required. In fact, Pittsburgh took a lot of heat last year for not holding back Gerrit Cole to start the wild card game. Also, if two other teams tie, they would have to break it before they play you, giving you an extra day or two.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    April 25th was Vargas' season OPS low point, and he was benched for Nunez at DH the next 3 games. Makes sense, he was struggling and Nunez was swinging well. Then Nunez goes on the DL and Vargas comes back to the lineup, and he rips off a .980 OPS over the next 2 weeks, with 7 multi-hit games in just 10 starts (and a manageable 20% K rate). Then Escobar and Santana each get DH nods over Vargas last week, and he is promptly demoted when Nunez comes off the DL. It's like they decided a few weeks ago that Vargas wasn't their guy, but let him hang on while Nunez was on the shelf...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    But the biggest reason he might improve more quickly in AAA than in the majors is because Molitor had been choosing to bench him in the majors the previous week. Why?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Then maybe Myers out of position isn't what is sapping his value, but rather being out of position in between Upton and Kemp. Perhaps those teammates are enough to downgrade him from acceptably bad to epically bad?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. 16 days: http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_27844942/twins-ervin-santana-suspended-80-games-after-testing
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone himself had fairly eye-popping numbers in AAA four years ago. If he can parlay that into 100 ERA+ seasons again like he had in Oakland, he probably should be in our top 5.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Call it the "Melky Cabrera rule". I think it is new with the increased penalties (going for 50 to 80 games for a first violation). http://kstp.com/article/stories/s3755744.shtml
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    If somehow we make the playoffs, I think this question will have answered itself! The more interesting question at that point, if we had to play a tiebreaker or wild card game, is who would start that one game...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, it should be noted that Durham (Milone's opponent last night) is second worst in the IL in batter K's. Milone struck out Corey Brown alone 4 times, and he's a LHB with a career ~30% K rate in AAA. (Another pair came against JP Arencibia.) His previous two opponents are both in the bottom half of the league by total batter K's too.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that Justin Upton has never played even an inning of CF in MLB. He's generally graded out as mostly neutral (UZR) to above average (DRS) in both corners, though, so I suspect he might be able to "man center good enough" as the other poster suggested (at least above Myers' current level).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If Pinto comes up for Friday, that is better, but it still feels a little too "cute" to bench and then demote a guy who's bat has been heating up like Vargas, for comparable guy who's just going to have to get re-acclimated to MLB pitching. (And if they're willing to reduce Suzuki's playing time and demote Herrmann, they could fit Pinto into my above distribution without demoting Vargas.) Plus, it appears they will be going into their two no-DH games this week, games where they will almost certainly use at least one if not multiple pinch hitters, with the following bench: Robinson, Nunez, Bernier, Herrmann. Extra weird "benefit" of a potential Vargas-to-Pinto transition...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas has exceeded that standard since April 29, the same date the Escobar began hitting at an acceptable MLB standard. What's the plan to the DH spot in the meantime? Various players I am sure, but indirectly it's going to be Nunez, Robinson, and maybe Bernier getting scattered starts, and "iron man" Mauer on the Lou Gehrig playing time plan. I fail to see how that's better than seeing if Vargas' recent trends can hold.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's our hope for the future, but that clearly isn't the case in the present. I generally like our team, but the Twins don't have nine guys (excluding Vargas) that need to be locked in the lineup virtually everyday. Average week has 6 games, here is a generic map of how you could equitably distribute the starts: Here is what that would mean for starts per week, and extrapolated to a full season: When Arcia comes back, he can take the place of Rosario or Vargas, depending on who is performing worse. Interleague is only 10 games, 6 of them in the last week of June, so that's hardly a hurdle to achieving this distribution. Who is going to be taking these starts that Vargas could be getting in MLB? It's going to be Mauer going from a 135 to 162 game/season pace, and indirectly, it's going to be scattered starts for Nunez, Robinson, and maybe even Bernier. (Obviously Plouffe, Dozier, and Hicks will get a few days off too, but probably not scheduled weekly, and those starts can go to Escobar and Rosario too if so desired.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That said, if they think Milone could reliably deliver 6 IP per start with a 100 ERA+, as he did in Oakland, it might be good to swap him into the rotation for someone. Pelfrey to the bullpen, pushing out a scuffling reliever, is probably the best use of resources at the moment -- see if Pelf can become a more consistent plus contributor out of the pen, and further develop May (who probably doesn't have a whole lot to gain with more AAA time, given his ceiling probably isn't much higher than Milone's, honestly).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Honestly, Milone's current AAA performance is more or less what you should expect from a healthy 28 year old with almost 100 MLB starts and who excelled in this same league four years ago (1.0 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 2.28 FIP). I guess it is encouraging to know that he's healthy, but I don't we can expect him to be significantly improved upon his return to MLB, or suddenly more able to fill a bullpen role.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Arcia's not available. Pinto is arguably worse (and also technically not available). Mauer's hitting has been suspect for a year-plus. If you need to see more of Rosario, give Escobar a day off, or put him at third and move Plouffe to first and give Mauer a day off. Escobar and Santana have each gotten DH starts recently, with Vargas available.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That wouldn't be a terrible move, especially if they are finally ready to reduce Suzuki's playing time, but it still doesn't explain why they wouldn't have made the move a week ago instead of just benching Vargas at that time. Also, Pinto isn't hitting THAT well at AAA this year (.786 OPS, 25% K rate), and over the past week he's 5-26 with 0 HR, 2 BB, and 11 K. And he's only played 5 of his team's 15 games at catcher after May 1st. It would be little weird to demote a DH/1B who's bat is heating up in MLB for a DH/C who's bat has been cooling down in AAA. And even stranger to try to squeeze a few useful interleague games from Bernier in between -- with Nunez back, Bernier is probably no better than 4th on the depth chart at any given position, right?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar is indeed hitting well, with an .810 OPS since April 29. Still less than Vargas in that time period (and no less sustainable in the BB/K department), despite having more regular ABs. I guess the elephant in the room is Joe Mauer -- I think I mentioned it upthread, but he's on pace to start 155 games this year. And he's got a .709 OPS on the year, and it's not trending up. If he has to sit a game here and there to get Vargas enough PAs to make his MLB presence worthwhile, so be it.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    It's an .883 OPS, which would be about a 140 OPS+. And they actually started benching him a week ago, when he had a .951 OPS and a lower K rate since April 29.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    But all of those goals and roles could be accomplished with Vargas staying as the regular DH right now. The difference is that Molitor has not been playing Escobar as a utility player, but rather as an everyday player.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I was about to correct you, but I completely forgot that Gray got off to a decent start with the 2012 Twins. On this date in 2012, Gray had 17 innings of 2.12 ERA (with zero unearned runs) and 4 of 13 inherited runners had scored, compared to Boyer's current line of 19 innings of 2.37 ERA (plus an earned run) and 4 of 9 inherited runners scored. Both had limited strikeout abilities, but Boyer has exhibited better control (both in 2014 and this year), and has been in more of the traditional setup man role.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, we've got a .500 Pythag record right now.
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