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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Stanton has been batting 3rd for most of the last 3 seasons, in front of the likes of Bour, Baker, Ozuna, Prado, Morse, McGehee, Garrett Jones, and Logan Morrison. Over that time he's taken 202 walks... in 335 games. A rate of 98 walks per 162 games.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, Bryant batted 3rd more than any other spot last year, including in all 9 Cubs postseason games. I don't know where the Cubs have him penciled this year, but clearly they didn't mind him batting 3rd last year.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly. Just thought there were some parallels. Have no idea what it means for Santana.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana's fall from grace reminds me a bit of the just-traded Jean Segura.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. Buxton would have to stay down almost the whole season to have any affect on service time, I think. You have to remember he was collecting MLB service time from June onward last year, except for a couple weeks in AAA.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for at least admitting up front that you were refuting something I didn't say. Of course ROI can be important, but it seems a lot of people just latch onto it as a justification in certain discussions (like FA relievers) while ignoring it in others. If Law is anything like noted Twins crank Gleeman, he might oppose a great many of our moves with an ROI justification, so selectively quoting just one and ignoring the others doesn't mean much. It's a business, true, but it is also a sport and plenty of decisions are made and money committed for far more esoteric non-ROI reasons than, say, the Twins adding a particular FA reliever to their current pen for 2/12. And unfortunately it's not at all clear yet that this is part of a strategy based around our young relief prospects, that is part of the problem. In 2015 the Twins were notoriously loathe to commit to youngsters in the pen, both when the stakes were low (April) and higher (September). Hard to predict right now what they will do in that regard in 2016.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the Twins kinda have that with Jepsen and Perkins...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Normally I'm with you, but in this case, who knows. Make that offer early enough, maybe Bastardo doesn't bother waiting and haggling to get more than one year from the Mets. Make that offer to Mark Lowe in the beginning of the offseason and you might easily have landed him (he seemed eager to sign). The Twins were connected to, what, a one year, $3-4 mil evaluation of Bastardo? This is a team that sinks $2.2 mil in Tim Stauffer just to have another veteran in the back end of their mediocre bullpen in a likely rebuilding year.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That Law quote came up in another thread. In modern MLB, 2/12 isn't that much. Teams gamble that much (or more) on mediocre starters, injury comebacks, and international unknowns all the time, even the Twins. Teams regularly hand out multiple millions to veterans just because they like the cut of their jib. Why do we suddenly care about strict ROI when it's a reliever?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure "messed up medicals" (short of surgery at the moment) is really any worse than messed up performance or peripherals (i.e. Friedrich, Strong, etc.). Either way, it's a long shot. In the Twins current situation in particular, I would probably prefer the higher upside. (You could also probably have a valid case for stashing Hultzen on the 60-day DL to begin the season and getting more time to evaluate him.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I have nothing against Hunter, but when is this obvious marketing push going to end?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure enough: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/details-jay-bruce-no-trade-clause-reds.html "Bruce can block any proposed deal that would send him to the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, A’s, or Twins." Interesting list.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Kris Bryant and Giancarlo Stanton say "hi".
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    That could be accomplished by saying Rosario can play CF. Or over-hyping an existing outfielder like Sweeney, Benson, or Mastroianni. Not actually converting an infielder / utility guy to full-time outfielder.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I would have claimed Danny Hultzen over both of them earlier this winter.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly has yet to miss many bats at the MLB level, but he has gotten some results. Sorry, just looked at the thread title. I have no idea how this tangent started, but I'll gladly end it here too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, those are the same guys that probably believe a necklace can improve their performance too. http://www.medpagetoday.com/CelebrityDiagnosis/42609 Not to mention adjusting batting gloves, stepping over a chalk line, etc.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, I don't know if Pressly got hit all that much in 2015. .321 BABIP at B-Ref, basically 2 hits more than league average. His ERA and FIP are virtually identical. If anything, he got a bit lucky by not giving up any HR (reflected in his much higher xFIP).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Friedrich is out of options which complicates things. You'd have to drop someone from the 40-man to add him right now, then you'd have to give him evaluation opportunities in spring training (presumably taking away opportunities from other relief options) before you'd have to make a decision to put him on your opening day roster or waive him again yourself. Just looking at his age and numbers, that seems like too much of a commitment right now. If he clears waivers and the Rockies outright him, you might get a crack at him as a minor league free agent after the season anyway if you are still interested.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's why I use ERA- at times in these discussions, Fangraphs lets you get those stats for starters and relievers separately. You can also easily make custom player lists there for comparison. Here's your list at Fangraphs by career relief ERA-: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7441,6033,3840,10534,4301,6324,8110,2895,6475,3926&sort=14,a
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams rarely trade value for a struggling player who is out of options. There is a decent chance that Arcia will be available for pennies on the dollar in March. The Twins don't have a good comparable for Dickerson right now, which means it's very possible the Rays would have asked the Twins for more (i.e. Kepler) or just not be interested at all.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, with the team option for 2017, the Reds have no real incentive to sell Bruce for whatever they can get right now. A bounceback season could net a decent return at the deadline or next winter.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Odds are no trade works out that well, but I don't think that trade couldn't happen now. 3 years of a 27 year old catcher with a career .301 AVG and 105 OPS+ could still fetch a lot, like a relief pitcher, a lotto ticket, and another minor piece. The trades that don't happen anymore are more like 1 month of Dave Hollins for David Ortiz.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    When one player can cause your bullpen to be near replacement level (Twins relievers 0.3 WAR combined in the 2nd half), that's not a deep pen. That's why I wanted some insurance, another good pitcher who could help us hold steady if Perk had trouble again, or Jepsen regressed, or Fien, or May was needed for rotation duty, etc. And if those guys all came through, with another top arm you'd have a decent chance at a top 10 bullpen. Instead we backfilled, again, with Abad.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know, there were a lot of times when we just didn't have a pitcher we trusted late in the season. May wasn't available all the time, Jepsen was saved for ninth, etc. Didn't have a good long man, didn't always play matchups well, etc.
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