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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, although can you really expect an extra deadline premium for most position players? Teams don't seem to view them as stretch-drive difference-makers (an elite catcher like Lucroy perhaps being a recent exception, although even then, Cleveland gave up more for reliever Andrew Miller). If you would have accepted the Rich Hill return for Dozier this winter, I think you'd pretty much have to do it at the deadline if it was really offered. Doubtful you could get a better prospect from the Dodgers, or a meaningful addition to the package, and passing on it probably means those prospects will get dealt in other trades and that deal won't be possible again in the offseason.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The potential reliever angle is another in support of optioning Duffey (preferably some time ago already). He's already burned his option this year. If we wait, we will likely have to burn another option on him in 2017 just to try him in the pen, whereas if he got that experience right now, he could potentially make the roster as a reliever next spring and not use an option.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It should also be noted that Turner is 24.5 years old (AA league average age), and repeating the level. Also he had 4 hits including a HR yesterday, which boosted his season OPS by almost 30 points in one day (and boosted that "since July 1st" OPS by 50 points). Obviously yesterday counts, but any sample terminating with that game might not be giving an accurate picture of Turner going forward. His components in 2016 look largely the same as 2015, except a bit of an increase in BABIP (still below average), an extra HR or two, and a handful of more doubles. Nothing that really screams progress as a hitter. I think it's probably fair to say he's still on something like the Butera track, which means he should have an MLB career but probably not as a starter. Will be very interesting to see if we protect him on the 40-man roster this winter -- his performance to date might not warrant it, but he could already be useful as a backup and we probably can't afford to be losing any options at catcher.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I was referring to the talk from this past winter, mainly about 2016 projections, so the trades were already completed. A lot of teardown/rebuild suggestions in response to the Zimmermann/Upton signings. To be fair, I don't think anyone criticized the deadline trades that brought in Fulmer and Boyd (and Norris), although perhaps they overlooked how quickly those guys could be ready to contribute. LOTS of folks were completely writing off Verlander and Victor Martinez in their assessments. I am sure the Tigers farm system is still poor, but the point about farm systems is, you don't necessarily need a good farm system. It's obviously preferable to have one, of course, but it's far more important to have MLB or near-MLB talent and be a good judge/developer of such players. I agree the Twins don't have an asset to deal like Price, although to be fair, the Tigers didn't either until they turned Jackson, Smyly, and Adames into him. (Adames still looks interesting for Tampa, but the Tigers are likely getting enough present-day value that they ultimately won't regret dealing him.) Dozier should be a better asset than Cespedes circa July 2015, but with 2 years of control left, the Twins clearly can't afford to trade him one-for-one for a Fulmer type prospect. EDIT: this is mostly my personal Tigers tangent, feel free to ignore!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Rogers has looked fine in his pen role, but let's not get carried away. He's facing a slightly higher percentage of LHB coming out of the pen, and he's seen modest increases in his rate stats. Nothing in that suggests he is any more suited to starting in MLB than he was a year ago.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Y'all should be ashamed, bumping this thread without any actual rumors or news! Got my hopes up...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. It is confusing because Molitor said the day before that the limit was 150 innings: http://www.startribune.com/adalberto-mejia-called-up-to-give-the-staff-a-fresh-arm/390805611/ And even on Tuesday, Molitor told Derek Wetmore that he expected Mejia to make "a few" more starts at AAA: https://twitter.com/DerekWetmore/status/768223604354015233 Perhaps Molitor was confused about the number? 130 does seem like a more logical target, although Mejia's spot will only come up 2-3 times before the end of Rochester's season anyway. (FWIW, I found the Sunday podcast and Antony said "he may make another start and I'm not sure how much he's going to pitch after that the rest of the season", so he wasn't quite laying down a hard limit at 1 more start yet either.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I did forget about that Rich Hill trade. But that suggests the Dodgers might be depleted in tradeable pitching prospects, no? It certainly doesn't seem to make them likely to deal an elite MLB ready guy in De Leon. (Also, curious: would you have accepted those 3 prospects from the Rich Hill trade for Dozier?) markos lays it out pretty well above. Obviously you can try this winter, but the point is, I will not be surprised if there is no market for Dozier at the prospect price you desire.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Good points on the Dodgers -- I forgot about that recent Hill + Reddick trade (perhaps because Hill didn't make his Dodgers debut until last night). But those felt like "B" prospects at best, and since they just gave up 3 of them, they're probably depleted. (As an aside -- would you have accepted that return for Dozier at the deadline?) If we were willing to get a Carson Fulmer type project, I am sure we could find a deal, but I don't think that helps us much. (Alec Hansen is interesting but a little hard to judge right now -- remember when Shooter Hunter embarrassed rookie league hitters?) The White Sox may also be in that ~2 WAR range already at the position with Lawrie.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think many starting pitchers come up from lower levels, especially when they don't need to be added to the 40-man yet. I'm not at all convinced other teams would promote someone like Gonsalves right now, and he would pretty much be the only viable option.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, you yourself just identified Wheeler as worthy. And Mejia could have another 3-4 starts before he hits his innings limit, why not make them in MLB? Not that they will help a lot right now, but getting MLB reps for those two is increasingly important as it looks less likely that Duffey can break camp in our rotation next spring. Not only might they be more valuable uses of the last month of the season than letting Duffey continue his up-and-down season starting, both would sure beats Pat Dean starting Friday...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Additionally, Duffey is already burning an option this year anyway, having spent ~21 days on optional assignment back in April. As compared to Berrios, who did not burn an option until after we added him and then sent him down after only 4 starts. (Not that options are necessarily super valuable, but we know they are a bit of a factor.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a question of taking on salary, though -- we want to acquire great talent in return. For all their profligate ways, I don't think the Dodgers have given up a lot of talent lately. I had forgotten that they had Kendrick under contract for 2017 since he has been in LF. They may want to upgrade, but it should be noted that Kendrick and Dozier have the exact same career 107 OPS+ right now. Dozier is having a much better 2016, but how much better does he project to be, going forward? Perhaps not enough to justify the big return we seek? Especially when we want that big return to focus on pitching? As for the picture being too fuzzy, I am not sure if that is true either. Frankly, lots of teams are set at 2B (hence why Dozier has perhaps struggled to get recognition at times). And others almost certainly don't care to sacrifice talent via trade to upgrade the position right now (i.e. Tampa, Oakland, San Diego, etc.).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope they got express written consent to do that (and not just implied oral consent).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier is valuable -- but is there a market for him, at a top price? I know the Braves were mentioned by some around these parts, although they seem pretty intent on rushing their own prospects -- Swanson already, and perhaps Albies not far behind. Otherwise, 2B needs are mostly for teams that are unlikely to give up a lot of talent (KC, Pittsburgh) or teams that have nothing to give up (the Angels). There are a couple big market teams that might have a need (Dodgers and Mets), but both have some prospects and internal options themselves, and Neil Walker will be a free agent too and probably projects similarly to Dozier, given their histories. It's a variation on the Plouffe 3B market last winter, it seems.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Returning to South Korea for the off season, they meant. Which has been reported elsewhere and isn't surprising -- I wouldn't expect him to winter in Minnesota!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember all the talk this past winter, about how poor Detroit's farm system was, how much better the Twins rotation depth was, and how the Tigers should just blow it up and rebuild? Ah, memories...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty much a procedural thing. If they release Hamilton now, they free up the 40-man roster spot for the winter, which is particularly important since Prince Fielder's insurance money already requires him to be on the 40-man roster. And now they have more freedom to re-sign Hamilton to a minor league deal if they want. (If they released him after September 1st this year, he would not be eligible to re-sign with the Rangers until May 15th next year.) Hamilton has just one guaranteed season left (2017), and the Rangers were already only on the hook for $2 million of that (the vast majority of his contract is being paid by the Angels).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Wilson provided tremendous value in the field and on the basepaths too. If Buxton gets to 46 career WAR, and 31 WAR from ages 23-28, I really don't care how it breaks down as far as offense/defense/baserunning. It's good. Yeah, he's probably not a star into his 30's, but he's a star in his 20's with those WAR numbers for sure. Crisp is at 29 WAR and very near the end of the line. Also Crisp didn't have much of a peak, as he was only worth 13.9 WAR over his first 6 full seasons.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    While the team would have certainly dealt with bad press for letting Mauer leave (or even letting him hit free agency), they actually secured the ballpark funding back in 2005. Mauer didn't sign his extension until March 2010, meaning it likely had zero effect on the ballpark and its 2010 revenue. Had he left as a free agent after the 2010 season, it could have impacted 2011 -- maybe the "new ballpark" revenue boost would have worn off a little quicker, although with the Twins poor play, probably not that much quicker than it actually did... (Not that I am arguing we should have let him leave, I don't think the extension really hurt us, although I would have rather seen a more aggressive early extension than the conservative one TR signed.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It wasn't an RBI double, it was a leadoff double. And Mauer eventually singled, and the Twins got the bases loaded with nobody out and failed to score. Then Teixeira homered to lead off the bottom of the inning. It was an absolutely terrible, indefensible call by Phil Cuzzi, but it ultimately probably would not have mattered.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Plouffe could be in the everyday lineup in place of Grossman or Santana, allowing Vargas to start. Or Mauer could spot in place of Grossman/Santana, if you think Plouffe needs to demonstrate his health more defensively at 3B. Heck, if we hadn't so badly bungled it earlier, I probably wouldn't be opposed to spotting Sano in the outfield either. (Note all of these are spotting, not converting/moving.) Plus a few extra road games off for Mauer. If you're unable to move Plouffe, you will want to do this anyway on September 1st, no? So what's the harm in starting it August 20, or better yet earlier?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the point -- Vargas shouldn't be getting sporadic play, he should be starting most games in MLB right now. We shouldn't have waited until August to play Polanco. Etc. There are limits to minor league data and scouting reports, and questions that only regular MLB play can help answer. Odds are Vargas doesn't stick in MLB regardless (like most prospects), but if the primary cost is spotting Plouffe or Mauer (or perhaps Escobar or Polanco) in the outfield during a lost season, it behooves the Twins to take the opportunity to find out, no? What's the benefit of the alternative approach? More PAs for Grossman and Santana? Keeping Mauer happy? (Although good management could get player buy-in.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    According to B-Ref, Willie Wilson had 46 career WAR -- 31 of it during his six likely team control seasons (ages 23-28, ignoring his age 22 season spent as a pinch runner) : http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsowi02.shtml That career WAR would be 4th best ever among 2nd overall picks: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=2&draft_type=junreg&
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    If Berrios pitches, but no one sees him do it -- do they still offer advice about how to fix him?
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