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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. In 2016, the Dodgers were still in playoff position at the trade deadline, even with a stopgap second baseman. In fact, thanks to injuries, outfield and starting pitching were bigger needs for them at the deadline. That could happen again. And of course, De Leon and or Stewart could be contributing to the MLB team by that point and no longer be on the table.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be pretty close to taking that (unless a majority of my scouts shared your pessimistic take on De Leon or something). Obviously the more interesting that third piece, the better.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    But Dozier is gone in only 2 years. You've got to take a realistic assessment of our odds of contending the next 2 years. It's not impossible, but it is unlikely, particularly in 2017. And besides, most of the prospects we have been discussing could be ready to produce in MLB within 2 years. If De Leon takes 2017 to adjust, who cares?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The Fangraphs prospect guy said Calhoun was really slow, so defensively, Kubel/Cuddyer might be his upside in the outfield. But analysts also say he has a pretty special power/contact profile at the plate, so I think it could be workable. Maybe not a guy you want to guarantee big money in free agency beyond age 30, but absolutely an asset through his years of team control.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that some posters would resist trading Dozier now because prospects, even top 100 ones, are far from sure things. And then to further support the idea of keeping Dozier, they say we can compete in 2017-2018... based on the number of former top 100 prospects we have. Not saying that's your argument, I just thought it was an interesting juxtaposition within a few posts there!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Calhoun being "worthless" is ridiculous. He is #87 on MLB's list right now, and a solid B on Sickels scale, and those grades take into account his limitations like defense and speed. Even if you don't like him on the Twins, he would be an asset -- maybe you could package him in a later trade, we don't have many upper minors hitting prospects. I wouldn't build the trade around him, but he should absolutely be considered as the 3rd or 4th piece if the Dodgers are willing. Think of it a little like the draft, and "best player available."
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I like it all right. Realistically I don't think you can do better for Dozier right now. If you are down on De Leon, you could insist on Alvarez in his place, I suppose.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier is not cheap if you have to give up more than De Leon and Stewart to get him.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I would be surprised if the framework of the Eaton deal wasn't already largely in place before the Sale deal was official. We're probably quibbling over a minor factor, but I just think it was one that favored the White Sox over the Twins. Obviously the quality/value of the players was far more important.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    That sounds about right for the offer. Earlier rumors had the Twins pretty high on Stewart too. If they were really just haggling over a 3rd piece ranked below Stewart, though, I'm a little surprised they couldn't hammer something out right away.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt, Sale is more valuable than Dozier. And Eaton is more valuable too by virtue of age/contract. But I think the White Sox position was a non-neglible factor in them getting good deals done quickly. (Which is why I have come around to doubting Dave's specific rumor about the inclusion of Alvarez -- the Twins would have been foolish to let a fairly aggressive offer fester since early December).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not clear that the White Sox did that at all. They were clearly talking to the Nats who were clearly willing to give up those prospects (in fact, they did give them up to the White Sox in the Eaton trade just a few days later). There is also no evidence that the White Sox left an offer sit on the table for a long time. On that thought, the Twins are in a much worse negotiating position than the White Sox were. The White Sox at least had a reasonable pretense of reloading for contention in 2017 -- they could reasonably say, if you want Sale, you better make your best offer today or we are just going to keep him and sign a free agent by next week. The Twins, by virtue of 103 losses, can't really say that, especially as we move into the latter portion of the offseason.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. But the Twins have basically spent the last month confirming that no other team has much interest in matching the Dodgers reported offer (of De Leon plus lesser pieces, I am ignoring Dave's inclusion of Alvarez for the time being). I agree that the factors you mention are far more important, but the Twins haven't done themselves any favors the past month. I could see the Dodgers as even less likely to flinch at a Twins deadline/demand now.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Even this seems exaggerated. There isn't really a clear best path for the Cardinals in this -- do they want to push the Dodgers to throw in another prospect to finish the trade? Or would they rather block the trade from happening altogether? Further, whatever marginal benefit they derive from affecting the Dodgers is probably wiped out by the precedent their own rumored offer would have on their own negotiations. The next time they want to make a trade, their potential partners could use a big rumored Dozier offer as a starting point in negotiations.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think fans tend to exaggerate the extent to which teams do this. Sure, teams try to gain a negotiating edge, but if we fans can tell what is going on, how much of an edge are they really gaining with these ploys? It's not like the Dodgers are going to read Doogie's unspecific report of St Louis interest and suddenly add a significant piece to their offer. In fact, it could backfire more often than not -- it may have been better for the Twins to keep St Louis as merely a potential future partner, rather than one who has already had fruitless dialogue with the Twins.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not inference by you; inference by your source. If he/she heard "two top prospects" and eliminated Bellinger, that suggests they may not have first hand knowledge of Alvarez's inclusion, but rather inferred it themselves.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like the Alvarez inclusion may have been more inference than direct knowledge by your source...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Plus, I get the holiday delay.. but your source was convinced it was going to happen weeks ago. There's been a lot more delay than can be explained by the holidays, by the Turner/Jansen deals, etc. And the Twins have been leaking stuff to Doogie over the holidays, so I'm not sure it has slowed front office business all that much.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't assume your source was the Twins. The Dodgers must have an opinion on the Twins trying to drum up interest with other rumors though. Why wouldn't the Twins leak the Alvarez part of the offer in these rumors, assuming it exists? Is there a chance that the Twins trying to drum up a Cardinals rumor could backfire? If I'm the Dodgers, and I had De Leon and Alvarez on the table, I might pull Alvarez back after seeing the tepid interest the Twins have been able to drum up the past month....
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Dave, have you talked to your source recently? How would he/she explain not only the delay, but the Twins now making relatively lame leaks to Doogie Wolfson to drum up interest? None of this jibes with an aggressive Dodger offer being on the table since early December...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Can your source also confirm the Dodgers amusement now as the Twins try to leak rumors about St Louis and other clubs? Because they have to be either amused or offended by the Twins dawdling over their fairly aggressive offer. For that matter, now that we know the Twins are leaking info to Doogie, wouldn't the Twins have leaked the De Leon and Alvarez offer by now to try to improve their bargaining with St Louis, San Fran, etc.? Almost a month has passed, De Leon has long been confirmed, and multiple teams have been involved, yet no one but you has confirmed Alvarez has been offered with De Leon. Seems far more likely that Alvarez hasn't been offered with De Leon. How does your source reconcile all of the above? I should add, I have never picked on you or your source, I am simply trying to figure this out, maybe to elicit an explanation from your source...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Dave, you have to seriously doubt your source's report that DeLeon plus Alvarez are on the table, right? Not only have the Twins sat on the offer nearly a month now, but they are apparently leaking suspect reports of interest from other teams. Even in the freewheeling world of MLB GMs, actions have consequences, and the Twins would be seriously jeopardizing that aggressive Dodgers offer if this is how they responded. The sticking point has to be the second piece, not the third (at least, not the third behind DeLeon and Alvarez).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    But they will have 6 years to make those other big changes with DeLeon and company, versus only 2 years with Dozier.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's worth noting how horribly White started in 2006. Zero HR and .182/.209/.215 for a .425 OPS over 191 PA, before they mercifully found a way to justify a DL stint in mid-June. Hit a HR in his first game back in July, and compiled a .892 OPS the rest of the season. That's what got him brought back for 2007 (well, that and his cheap price tag) -- not his small playoff sample that year.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the White Sox have a worthwhile 2B on their roster (Lawrie, Saladino, Sanchez).
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