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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure what you are getting at with this experiment? A little more control and especially a team option would certainly make him more valuable, as is the case with most players. But that's not the deal he signed, nor is it achievable now. I think any extension now would involve at least 3/60 on top of his current deal, and possibly more.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Related -- if you haven't seen them already, Kenan Thompson on Saturday Night Live has done a highly entertaining David Ortiz impression in a series of "Weekend Update" appearances: https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/cast/kenan-thompson-15086/impersonation/david-ortiz-81661
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course there is a point at which a trade is just not worth it. This whole discussion is about determining that point. But evidence/logic suggests that Dozier's level of popularity has nothing to do with that determination.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    More on splits: Here are 2016 playoff team non-pitcher ranks in wRC+ overall: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 19 Here are their ranks vs LHP: 1, 4, 5, 7, 13, 17, 18, 22, 28, 30 By nature of the smaller sample, it's more spread out, and it also follows that it is more volatile (and less meaningful) year-to-year. Again, not to say the Dodgers can't look to improve in that regard, but I would be surprised if it's a major area of emphasis at the moment. FWIW, Dodgers non-pitchers ranked 3rd in all of MLB in wRC+ vs LHP in 2015, with a 118 mark, and 6th in 2014 at 111.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The Dodgers pitchers hitting (-23 wRC+) was actually by far the worst among playoff teams. Not much they can do to fix that! For non-pitchers, the Dodgers ranked 4th in the NL and 7th in MLB with a 105 wRC+, ahead of the Giants, Blue Jays, Nationals, Mets, Indians, Orioles, and Rangers among playoff teams: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Even on a team level, I'd caution against reading too much into a single season's splits. Justin Turner is a RHB but somehow put up a 77 wRC+ vs LHP last year, after posting a 133 in that split over 2014-2015. What do you project him to do vs LHP in 2017? Puig was one of their leaders vs LHP in 2016, but he was shuttled to the bench and minors for awhile. Him returning to a full-time role in 2017 should give them a boost vs LHP, even if he doesn't rebound to his all-star status. Not that it can't be a consideration for them, but it's not clear that they have to make it a major priority right now. RHB platoon options are probably pretty cheap, and could be even cheaper in July. (I imagine the 2016 Dodgers would have been better off getting a RHB instead of Josh Reddick at the deadline, as he proceed to post a negative-31 wRC+ in 33 PA vs LHP!)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The NL West also includes the launching pads in Denver and Phoenix, so I doubt it's much of a consideration.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think trades have 6 months to be fully settled if they involve PTBNL or cash considerations. So a deal consummated now could include considerations decided on July 2nd.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    40 HR guys are so rare, Dozier himself has done it only once in four full seasons! Actually that was his only time breaking the 30 HR mark too. The point about Killebrew's era is that, even if Dozier is a true 40 HR, 5 tool infielder, he's gone from Minnesota in 2 years anyway (or very expensive if we manage to keep him). That was never a consideration for the Twins about Killebrew. Plus, the Twins of that era were never as bad as the 2016 team, meaning their outlook for contention was generally much better than that of the 2017-2018 Twins. If Dozier was cheaply controlled in perpetuity like Killebrew was, or if the Twins were coming off even a .500-ish season in 2016, I guarantee we wouldn't be discussing a potential trade much if at all. This isn't about Dozier's performance as much as it is about the Twins and his pending free agency.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure Brian Dozier isn't seen as a "hero" by a notable number of fans. To the extent that he is, or even that he is more generally a familiar face, you have to also consider he has been the beneficiary of Twins marketing. If he is traded, those marketing efforts would be redirected to Polanco or others and help make them familiar (or even "heroes") to a similar level as Dozier.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Those "needs" seem overly specific for a defending division champ that went deep into the NLCS against the eventual world champ. At least as needs that demand paying a high price to fill. I don't think baseball roster construction is that cut-and-dried. They also have some needs in the outfield, some of which they are looking to fill internally and could also overlap some of the needs you outline above.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I never said otherwise. Tell that to the poster suggesting Dozier's most recent 4 months might represent his new norm.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Something clicked with Dozier in June 2013 too. Something un-clicked with him in July 2015 as well. I think it's just part of who he is as a hitter.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Depends on the source. Certainly not at Fangraphs. Also "higher rated" doesn't necessarily mean more valuable, depending on the context. Ceiling might be more valuable to some teams/situations than floor. Alvarez in particular seems to have a much higher ceiling, while Calhoun would have the higher floor.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The 1964 Twins didn't lose 103 games. In fact, while they only won 79, they were coming off consecutive 91 win seasons in 1962-63 so they very much expected to contend in 1965. Killebrew had a career 142 OPS+ at that point. Dozier's is 108. His 137 last year represented a career high. Through 1964, Killebrew was on a steak of 6 consecutive seasons at or above that mark. Due to the rules at the time, Killebrew's playing rights were the permanent property of the Twins, on year to year contracts at a salary essentially of the teams choosing (just enough to keep him from holding out or retiring). Dozier is guaranteed $15 mil for the next two seasons thanks to arbitration rights which did not exist for Killebrew, after which he is guaranteed free agency, another right which obviously did not exist for Killebrew (and indeed would not come to MLB until after Killebrew retired). I will also keep in mind your description of a top ~10 MLB pitching prospect as "a possible back end starter that has never won in the Bigs" for the next time the Twins have such a player. Something tells me you won't be so dismissive of the asset when it belongs to your club...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Long story short: as much as people pick on De Leon here, the Twins are unlikely to get a single prospect offered for Dozier that is as good as De Leon. Thus, any package built around De Leon is probably the best package we will see too, even if it doesn't including Alvarez or Bellinger. Will be very interesting to see if LEN3 does any follow-up reporting on this -- his "one-for-one" thing didn't really address that possibility at all.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually if the Twins had traded a Dozier type with 2 years control left after 1998 for Joe Mays, it could have worked out pretty well. Mays had 11.9 bWAR over the next 3 years at league minimum salary, with his biggest year in 2001 as we returned to relevance, and even though he was hurt by injuries, he managed to toss a gem in the 2002 playoffs. The problem with Mays was the extension, when judging by the peripherals, we probably should have been looking to flip him. And of course, we wouldn't be trading for Joe Mays here -- just a prospect with a median projection like Joe Mays WAR. With a team unlikely to contend in the immediate future, it might be worth the chance that he could be better than that. Of course, I don't think anyone is advocating a one-for-one trade either. That report seemed to be based on the Dodger not including Alvarez or Bellinger with De Leon, but no one has officially reported on the possibility of De Leon plus Stewart, Calhoun, etc.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Those guys were generally signed/extended for big money when the Twins were competitive. I don't think any of them were approaching FA in team circumstances like Dozier's. I think it was addressed earlier too, but Dozier and most individual players likely provide very little in terms of attendance or ratings beyond what they contribute to the team's overall record.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That 10.1 WAR is an average projection over all possible outcomes, including busting. Belliger is only projected at 10.2 by the same measure, and he's a "safe" position player. Given the inherent bust risk for prospects, those are actually a couple pretty solid projections. They must have decent odds at posting 20+ WAR to average 10 even with bust risk.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    How about career OPS? Last year was the first time Dozier had a season OPS higher than Eaton's career mark. Eaton is younger, controlled longer, and has been far more consistent -- all of those have real value. Dozier has value too, but there is no shame in having less value than Eaton or Sale -- those are strong players on two of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Eaton has an extra 3 years on Dozier (team options). And he's slightly younger so those years are more valuable.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Dodgers didn't exit in the first round this year; they actually took the NLCS to 6 games against the eventual champion Cubs.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Urias is probably as good a bet as any to ascend to that plateau next.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Dave, sorry if I missed this elsewhere, but have you talked to your source recently? Have they been hearing that specific offer recently, or are they still just going by what they heard a month ago?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Hypothetically, if Dave's source is right, what value would this put on De Leon + Alvarez?
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