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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    For me, I'll be happy with the right components (Buxton driving the ball, showing patience, limiting K's, and Berrios limiting walks/HRs and maximizing K's). Of course, if they do those things, they will probably hit those modest AVG/ERA targets anyway. Buxton would only have to hit ~.266 the rest of the way to finish at .250. And a 4.50 ERA may only be a 90 ERA+ in the current offensive environment.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so sure Robertson will be that cheap. If there's no Chapman (Aroldis, not Kevin ) or Miller on the market this summer, Robertson might be one of the premier trade chips in the league. Even if they don't ultimately get a high price for him, they almost certainly will not deal him in June, but rather wait until the deadline unless they are blown away by an offer. (Also, we Twins fans don't like to admit it, but the White Sox might hang around in the standings for awhile yet too!)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    But there's also a lot of clubs willing to sign guys like Holland and Storen to potentially shore up a mediocre pen. Also a lot of clubs willing to promote relief prospects. Also a lot of teams that almost exclusively look for bullpen upside in Rule 5.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Hard to say on the catching front. Castro and Gimenez aren't strictly "hidden framing treasures" -- Castro was one of the top FA catchers on the market, and probably the best fit for the Twins for a number of reasons (health, durability, willingness to sign a reasonable deal with a losing ballclub). And Ryan certainly would not have trusted Garver or Murphy for 2017 either, so he would have been looking for a veteran backup, and Gimenez probably fit just as well as any, given his history and cheap price. I'm not necessarily saying the process is the same, but I do wonder if we didn't over-state (or over-expect?) their differences in many areas. (And perhaps we're over-stating some of the catcher effects too? The Twins had a lot of bad luck in 2016, it was natural to expect some of that to neutralize.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. The White Sox have a few different relievers of value too. Might be hard to swing that with a division rival, though!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    On that tangent, it's interesting to think that none of the recent roster/personnel moves would have been out of place with TR at the helm. Castro, Gimenez, Adrianza, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Tepesch, Wilk, Duffey to the pen, etc. Even dismissing Brunansky as hitting coach.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. I'm not opposed to smart trades. I just doubt a premium RP trade, during the Twins 2017 season, will qualify. Maybe a bigger trade, that also includes a reliever component? I remember how the Rangers got Jake Diekman in the Cole Hamels deal...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd actually put Robertson a step below Melancon/Kimbrel too. He's given up more hits and HR than those guys recently, put more walks than Melancon, and not quite consistently enough of a K rate to make you forget about that (Fangraphs had him ranking 34th among relievers in K% last year). He's still obviously pretty good, but I have a feeling he would be more of a "good closer" type addition rather than a potential bullpen weapon type. Not bad, but not something I'd want to pay a trade premium for. Sign guys towards that goal in the offseason, or promote guys toward that goal midseason instead.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Being in first place isn't the only condition there -- the Cubs and Cleveland both had arguments for being the best teams in their leagues, largely due to dominant starting pitching. Unless Berrios dominates MLB like he did AAA, and the Santana/Santiago career years continue, the 2017 Twins are not going to be in *that* position, even if we are technically in first on July 31.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    "Keith Law To Speak In Mpls 5/18" But -- will anybody listen?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Chapman (Aroldis, not Kevin ) and Miller were a different class of relief pitcher, though. Robertson has a 119 ERA+ in 2+ seasons with the White Sox so far, that's basically pre-2017 Ryan Pressly. And Cubs and Cleveland basically had their playoff tickets printed by that point, with very strong rotations -- they were primarily looking for a postseason edge. I don't think the Twins could possibly be in that position by the trade deadline 2017.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Neshek was pitching in a lower strikeout environment. League average K/9 is 8.4 in the International League this year; in 2006, that figure was only 6.9.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there was a side discussion of Nick Burdi going on here... unfortunately with a lot of pronouns in place of proper names!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I don't think it is quite "much ado about nothing." There is still the matter of whether Wilk has much promise as a reliever, why we are trying that midseason instead of last offseason, etc. Also, has it been announced that they are permanently moving him to the pen? Or is he just not starting Saturday, but could start in 10 days or so like Tepesch did?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Any hint on the corresponding move yet? Tepesch DFA? Haley back to the DL? Wilk through waivers again?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Adam Wilk(es Booth) was the Mets replacement starter for Matt Harvey (Oswald). Kind of a metaphor for the Mets season thus far...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Even though I don't understand the move, if he is still on the roster when the team returns home next week, I will be the first to greet him -- Wilkommen!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins are busy preparing a new promo video, extolling the virtues of their latest acquisition. It'a called "Triumph of the Wilk."
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Rostering marginal pitchers is taking a Wilk on the wild side!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    His UZR/150 has fallen, though -- it was at 48 earlier this season, now it's "just" at 30. I guess we can be relieved he hasn't let those recent "struggles" in the field affect him at the plate.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Also -- if Adam Wilk is really an effective relief candidate, why not sign him in the offseason? Then you would have more time to prepare him, in spring training and perhaps even in a brief minor league assignment. There is a cost to attempting this conversion on the fly in MLB. Also, Adam Wilk has been a free agent in each of the last FIVE offseasons. Never been signed by the Twins or either of Falvey's or Levine's clubs. Either they have been ignoring his relief potential for a long time... or he's just another stopgap addition to this staff.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Goodrum is an interesting player. Basically every year of his pro career, he finished between 97-114 wRC+, until he spiked up to 133 in a partial season repeating AA last year. Down to 85 is his AAA debut but it is still very early. A switch-hitter with pretty even splits, plays a variety of positions (I don't know how well). He was a second round pick in 2010, so he had some pedigree to start out with too. K rate is a little high, but it seems possible that Goodrum could be better than, say, Danny Santana (faint praise, admittedly).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    No one is concerned with using Rucinski's last option year. It's a nice bonus for flexibility, but he's 28 years old. If he's somehow still around and can't crack the roster next year at age 29, he can be DFA'd just as easily then.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I would generally agree with you -- but we already know that MLB players do get concerned when their GM doesn't sign or trade for players they think the club needs to win. Sometimes I'd take the GM's side in those disputes, but It's not too much of a stretch to think similar feelings might be brewing in the Twins clubhouse now, as it becomes apparent that the Twins Plan A for the bullpen (and perhaps Plan B for the rotation?) was to rotate whatever minor league mediocrities through the spots, regardless of whether the alternative would be prospects or MLB acquisitions. And it would be awfully hard to take the FO's side in this one, without resorting to "I trust the plan" platitudes (which can still mask all sorts of misgivings).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I know how Rule 5 works, and the potential benefits for teams -- but the context of the post was, how does that look from the perspective of other players on the Twins MLB roster? They're trying to win, and the front office is not only giving a roster spot to a guy who didn't "earn" it, they also rushed him back to Minneapolis after 1 rehab inning.
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