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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    You forgot the comma: No, stripper jokes, please!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    2009 the Yankees celebrated at the Dome. 2010 the Twins actually had home field advantage, so the game 3 clincher was back in Yankee Stadium.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    You are not alone! In fact, the Twins will be taking the field to this song at Target Field tonight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URyqGD99Owg
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Personally, I wouldn't put too much stock in a ~46 inning sample spread out over 7 years. At least not enough to flip Odo and Dobnak in the rotation, potentially put us in an 0-2 hole, and make Odo on short rest for a potential game 5. FWIW, Odo's only made 3 starts there over the last 3 years, and two were "quality starts". I would hope he's improved since he first couple years in the league...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Pineda may have known of his pending suspension back then (although that's not clear either), but the team most definitely did not. Teams aren't notified until just before it becomes official, after the appeal. (Which makes sense, as a player who successfully appeals may not want the suspicion to impact his relationship with his employer, future contracts, etc. Although it does make planning more difficult for the team.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    It's exactly the same lineup as our previous game (except SP, obviously). Hopefully they choose "do" rather than "die" this time.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins could use an offensive performance like the Rays tonight! 8 runs in 4 innings so far, vs Greinke and a pair of relievers...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    You could always learn to eat danishes while watching baseball!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Is Odorizzi a notably worse pitcher on the road? Or Dobnak notably worse at home? I guess I don't see it as a factor worth swapping them over.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    How so? Is this the ground-ball-vs-fly-ball thing? Odorizzi's previous starts vs NYY this season point to the futility of relying too much on that when forecasting a single game. Whatever edge it might provide, it doesn't seem worth it if it increases your risk of going down 0-2 in the series, and not having Odorizzi available on full rest for a potential game 5. And even if you do go with the Dobnak-in-game-2 strategy, don't you have to go to someone other than Duffey again as your first guy out of the pen?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think there was any *real* doubt about Arraez's ankle, after the first couple days. I think they were just staying tight-lipped to impact the Yankees planning. (Just like the Yankees were tight-lipped about a few of their bubble guys.) Arraez is a rookie, but one with a pretty impressive skill set of his own that seems to complement the rest of the Twins lineup more than Schoop's. And I feel like we're massively overrating Schoop to claim this as a questionable move. Schoop can be a useful MLB player, but keep in mind, within the last 15 months, he has recently been salary dumped, benched by another playoff team, and non-tendered. He had a career postseason OPS of .346 coming into this series, over 36 PA. Again, I'm not trying to pick on Schoop too much -- I think the Schoop/Arraez decision could have gone either way. The Odorizzi/Dobnak decision, a little less so, and the Duffey game 2 decision, after Stashak's and Gibson's innings in game 1 -- I still don't understand it. That's all.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I did watch it, and I watched it again before I made that post. It was a "looper" more than a high pop-up, and it landed pretty far into the outfield as you can see in the spray chart graphic. The second baseman has to face the infield enough to track it, which sort of limits the speed at which he can go after it. I wouldn't call it routine or easy. Arraez almost made the play. It's quite possible that Schoop would have made the play. If it had been hit just a little higher or further, it's Rosario's play. To me, the outcome of that play hardly invalidates starting Arraez over Schoop.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Although Schoop has a higher rate of grounding into double plays anyway (even vs LHP this season). And even if the double wasn't well-hit, Arraez's ability to make contact is probably more useful in the Twins lineup, than Schoop doing a lesser impersonation of Sano, Rosario, etc. I mean, I could see this one going either way. I'm not arguing that starting Schoop would have been a mistake. And I know that starting Arraez could have been a mistake, if his ankle sprain was affecting him too much. But based on what I've seen, that doesn't seem to be the case.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if it was that routine -- it was really in no-man's land: If it had been high enough for Arraez to get under it, then Rosario probably has a better play on it anyway. And in any case, that ball dropping doesn't matter if Cron catches a relatively routine throw from the second baseman.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Braves going for the kill! I guess they pulled Keuchel at 74 pitches in game 1.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember the Brewers had Schoop on their roster last year, and used him only 4 times in 10 postseason games (1 start, 3 pinch hit appearances -- and as an NL team, they pretty much needed pinch-hitters in every single game). So this isn't the first time a contender has deemed this as appropriate usage for Schoop. About Schoop "mashing lefties", here are some of his career numbers vs Yankee pitchers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?request=1&submitter=1&batter=schoojo01&min_year_game=2013&max_year_game=2019&post=1&opp_id=NYY&throws=any&c1gtlt=gt&c2gtlt=gt&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc Happ .563 Paxton .222 Chapman .000 I guess he was 2-for-2 vs Tyler Lyons, before striking out against him in 3 pitches on Saturday. Even in 2019, while Arraez has less power, Arraez has a notably higher OBP and lower K rate vs LHP than Schoop. Basically the same AVG too. Given the rest of the lineup, maybe Rocco wanted that spot to put the ball in play and hopefully reach base, more than another feast-or-famine, HR-or-K type? FWIW, Arraez doubled and scored off the game 1 lefty starter too. As the fielding play was mostly on Cron, as you allude to, I think the decision was justifiable and worked out fine.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about Arraez -- Schoop's looked pretty bad in his PAs too. I'm willing to give some leeway there. But going to some lengths to protect your 3 bullpen arms in game 1, then starting Dobnak and *still* ignoring those 3 pen guys and turning to a used Duffey first in game 2 -- that combination of moves is a real head-scratcher to me.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Monday Oct. 7 Another big day! Four more games... and four potential elimination games (although the hopeful eliminators are all playing on the road)... 12:05 pm CST Astros at Rays (ALDS Game 3, Astros lead 2-0) TV: MLBN 2:07 pm CST Braves at Cardinals (NLDS Game 4, Braves lead 2-1) TV: TBS 5:40 pm CST Dodgers at Nationals (NLDS Game 4, Dodgers lead 2-1) TV: TBS 7:40 pm CST Yankees at Twins (ALDS Game 3, Yankees lead 2-0 -- but you knew this already ) TV: FS1
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Anibal Sanchez certainly fared better than former FA target Patrick Corbin last night!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Game 2 was only 1-0 when Duffey entered. While that's not the platonic ideal spot to use Rogers, it is probably better than using Duffey again less than 24 hours after he had to throw 25 high-stress pitches against the same Yankee hitters. Heck, the first two batters due to face Duffey in that spot (Stanton and Torres) had walked and doubled against him the previous night. I really can't comprehend why we didn't go with a fresh arm there -- or just let Dobnak see if he can get another GIDP from Stanton.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Has Baldelli really been that patient with his starters? Hard to tell with the rest strategy in play too, especially with our division lead, but pulling Berrios at 88 pitches doesn't seem too out of line. Especially given the quality opponent, the higher stakes, Berrios's stuff that day, and the heart of the order coming up for a third time. And Dobnak certainly doesn't have much history at all, much less a history of pitching deep into games. Neither hook seemed surprising to me, but Stashak in a 1-run game was surprising, no hook for Gibson was surprising, and the first reliever choice of game 2 was very surprising (Duffey having already thrown 25 high stress pitches less than 24 hours earlier).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point! The 2017 Yankees came back from an 0-2 division series deficit... to beat the 100+ win AL Central champs... behind the solid pitching of Luis Severino... and the timely hitting of Didi Gregorious.... wait a minute, maybe this isn't the most encouraging comeback example for the 2019 Twins.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    GB/FB numbers are worth considering, but for one game, it's really hard to predict their effects (see Odorizzi's starts vs NY already this year). I can't see GB% trumping the other basic factors, such as having a fully rested pen available for game 3 instead of just a mostly rested pen for game 2. (Or looking ahead, having the game 2 starter available on full rest for a potential game 5 -- which we were more likely to need after losing game 1.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I know Duffey's been great for us the last few months, but -- why turn to him first in game 2, the night after he threw 25 pitches in game 1? Throwing Stashak, Gibson, and even Graterol the night before -- wasn't the whole point of that to keep Rogers, Romo, and May fresh for game 2? So you wouldn't necessarily have to rely on Duffey again right away? Not to mention the whole "over-exposure" risk -- Didi's GS was on the 41st Duffey pitch seen by the Yankees within 24 hours. Especially since the quick hook for Dobnak wasn't exactly a surprise -- it's just so weird that they'd plan on this kind of usage for Duffey, after game 1.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, catching up... Does that 93.7% reflect the current run scoring / HR environment? Not that it would make a huge difference, but the odds of making up 3 runs in 2 innings in 2019 would presumably be slightly greater than a few years ago, or perhaps even seasons with higher scoring but a lower HR rate. Not that I think bringing in Gibson was necessarily the biggest mistake -- leaving him in to give up 3 runs was definitely a mistake, though. Our win expectancy was down to 1% by the end of that inning. Gibson should have had some kind of hook, and 3 walks with the top of the Yankees lineup coming up again should have triggered it. By that point, we were going to need someone else to pitch the 9th regardless, might as well ask them to get an extra out rather than trying to milk a single extra out from Gibby. An even bigger mistake was probably using Stashak in a 1-run game -- his inning took our win expectancy down from 26% to 11%. (And when it was still a 1-run game in the top of the 6th, simply getting a runner on 1st with no outs got our win expectancy up to 40% -- that will be lower with fewer outs remaining, of course, but it illustrates the real value in keeping it a 1-run game.)
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