Seth Stohs

Sure, but Duensing wasn't a LOOGY. Duensing is also a free agent and unlikely to be back, opening up a spot. Could be Rogers, Darnell or someone else. I just believe that pitchers are better served developing as starters (if they can) because 1.) starters are more valuable and guys that have success in AA and AAA may need just one thing to click to become a solid #3-4 starter (which is valuable), and 2.) they face so many more in-game situations as a starter than they do as a reliever. I'd also add that I think there's a very good chance he's on the MLB roster at some point in 2016... and beyond.

I would say this much... because it's all just theoretical and I'm not going to look anything up... It's rare to find good defensive catchers who can hit. It's rare to find good offensive catchers who can catch well. There's a reason Joe Mauer was the #1 prospect in baseball for a couple of years. There's a reason he was a perennial All Star. If there are catchers in the minor leagues who people think and hit well in the majors and still be good defensively, those guys will likely be very highly ranked. My guess is you'll see a few of them in the lower levels of the minors, and as they move up the ladder, things get exposed and you see less of them. The ones that can hit will be on prospect lists. The ones that teams want to be their starters will not be ranked as high in many cases because offensive stats are pretty much all that can be seen. That the long way of saying that I don't think you'll find a ton of catchers in prospect rankings. It's the most difficult position for ranking.

The right situation being maybe in an organization that doesn't have an All Star second baseman locked up for the next three seasons.

Because starting pitchers are more valuable and if there's any chance he can be a starter, they should go with that. Also, once they brought O'Rourke up, he was the LOOGY. Now, most believe that Rogers will be a bullpen guy long term, in large part due to the Twins depth of mid-to-backend starters, but he's developing more as a starter than as a reliever because he's facing those same situations every start almost.

Just to look at my 2015 Twins Prospects, #s 16-20. #16 - Tyler Duffey - knowing what we know now, and if he had only pitched 49 innings with the Twins, where would he rank now? #17 - Chih-Wei Hu - he took another step forward in 2015 and was traded for a solid late-innings reliever. #18 - Jake Reed - he took a step back, but he still is top 25 for me and is a good candidate to be successful in the Twins bullpen at some point in the next couple of years. #19 - Stuart Turner - Defense matters... I still think there's some offensive potential in there. He had a solid second half... with graduations and such, he stayed the same for me. 2016 will be a big season for him to determine whether he goes up the list, or drops a bit. #20 - JR Graham - he was a Rule 5 guy who was clocked at 95+ despite it being in his return from injury with the Braves. Obviously he's not a 'prospect' anymore, but given a little time, he can be a solid 6th/7th inning type of guy. 2014 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Amaurys Minier, 17.) Kennys Vargas, 18.) Ryan Eades, 19.) Felix Jorge, 20.) Niko Goodrum. 2013 #s 16-20 --> 16.) AB Walker, 17.) Chris Herrmann, 18.) BJ Hermsen, 19.) Jorge Polanco, 20.) Luke Bard 2012 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Manuel Soliman, 17.) Levi Michael, 18.) Max Kepler, 19.) Niko Goodrum, 20.) Hudson Boyd 2011 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Max Kepler, 17.) Eddie Rosario, 18.) BJ Hermsen, 19.) Danny Ortiz, 20.) Bobby Lanigan 2010 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Jeff Manship, 17.) Tyler Robertson, 18.) Alex Burnett, 19.) Blayne Weller, 20.) Billy Bullock 2009 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Shooter Hunt, 17.) Joe Benson, 18.) Mike McCardell, 19.) Steve Tolleson, 20.) Brian Duensing 2008 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Jason Pridie, 17.) Erik Lis, 18.) Deibinson Romero, 19.) Nick Blackburn, 20.) Jay Rainville. 2007 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Kyle Waldrop, 17.) Brock Peterson, 18.) Jay Rainville, 19.) Trevor Plouffe, 20.) Joe Benson 2006 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Kyle Waldrop, 17.) Boof Bonser, 18.) Matt Garza, 19.) Juan Portes, 20.) David Winfree There are some really good players... Duensing, Plouffe, Garza, There are some guys who got a cup of coffee. There are some guys who "Roger" might be the only one who remembers. That's the nature of these lists... It's what makes them fun.

I would say that the top 2-3 prospects are what makes a prospect ranking for an organization. The Twins have 6-7 guys that will have them ranked pretty high even with the 'graduations' of Rosario, May, Duffey and Sano. How I look at rankings... You look for one of the top 2 to become an All-Star caliber player. You hope that guys in that 3-7 range can become regular starters in the lineup or 3-5 starters. You hope that guys in that 8-15 range can become quality role players, maybe bullpen arms, etc. You hope that guys in the 16+ range can get to the big leaguers and help in any way. Of course, there's so much wiggle room in all of that. I mean, guys like Blankenhorn, Diaz, Cabbage simply don't have enough track record and not quite enough prospect hype to be Top 10-12 guys right now but clearly do have the potential to someday breakout and become a Top 10 guy. I just need something more. Consider Jorge Polanco signed out of the DR as a mid-sized signing bonus, good defense, questionable bat prospect. Sano was my #3 Twins prospect right away after the Twins signed him. Polanco wasn't in the top 30. Polanco took two seasons in the GCL and didn't hit until he moved to Elizabethton, and then proved that was real in Cedar Rapids. Now he's easily a top 10 guy and someone who, in the right situation, can be a big league regular. Prospect rankings are for fun discussion and learning about players and recognizing them. But they're subject to change year over year as players develop. That's the beauty of it!

Fair point, but what if he does take the step in 2016 and people think that he can be more than a backup catcher. Also, what's wrong with being a backup catcher. If the Twins would have moved Butera to the bullpen, it's pretty likely he never makes the big leagues. As a backup catcher, and one of the smartest baseball players around, he's now over 5 years of MLB service time. He's considered valuable by MLB Insiders, front offices, players, coaches, etc. That's nothing to scoff at, even though many chose to do so.

He wasn't in my Top 30 coming into 2015 either. He dropped out of my rankings (and most rankings) after his 2014 season. But he pitched his way back in in 2015.

He is eligible this year for the Rule 5 draft if he isn't protected. For me, I don't think he's a given to be added, though he is one of 2-3 that I think are borderline adds. I just don't think he'd stick with a big league roster for the season, so I don't think he'd be taken...

Everyone has their personal rankings and has guys they are likely higher on then most... or lower. I guess I don't look at other rankings when I come up with mine. As noted, these are all subject to change when I come up with my final rankings in the Prospect Handbook. I haven't really talked to anyone associated with the Twins about these rankings. I've talked to some about some of the players, but not about how to rank them. What am I looking for in a catcher? #1 - Defense. I think that's the most important thing a catcher can do for his team. Both Turner and Navarreto are terrific. Tools-wise, Navarreto has good size, strength and a powerful arm. He's working on calling games, and he'll get better at blocking, but those are the tools I look for defensively. Yes, I would like to see more offense, but again, he's got the size. He's got decent speed, especially for a catcher. He hasn't shown it yet, but he has tremendous power potential. Maybe I'm biased some by the monstrous home run I saw him hit off of JO Berrios in spring training. Obviously a pretty small sample size (1 AB), but it does speak to his potential. The Salvador Perez comp is based on size and defense, and offensive potential. It doesn't mean he will get there, and it certainly doesn't mean he'll be an All Star by 23. I frankly don't care if it takes him til 25-26 to get to the big leagues. For me, comps are about potential, not about age-to-level and stuff like that. What 'could' he become... Navarreto may never get to AA. No way to know. But with his defense, I think he's got a good chance to get to the big leagues. But mainly, just my personal opinion.

I would agree with that, but I'm always a proponent of that. Others asked why I have Navarreto and Turner as high as I do. Part of it is their size. Part of it is seeing some offensive potential. And, my personal opinion is that to see that potential, they need to get an extra half-season at a level. I've written on a few occasions that I'd like to see Turner get another half-season in Chattanooga in 2016. Same thing with Navarreto. I'd like to see him get another half season in Cedar Rapids. Both hit better in the 2nd half than they did early in the season. Neither will be a great hitter, most likely, but if they can be near-.700 OPS guys and play the kind of defense they can play, that's pretty valuable. Will that happen? No way to know, but I love both upsides. And, I guess if I were to make one other statement, or acknowledge one mistake, it's probably that there is so much separation in ranking between these two and Garver. When I come up with my final rankings, I would guess these two will stay pretty close to where they are, but Garver will move up a little bit.

I think that would be a fair statement, though there is a lot of development he needs to do offensively as well as defensively.

Today we start looking at who I’ve put in my preliminary Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospect countdown with prospects 16 through 20. This is a fairly diverse group by age and by position. There are a couple of catchers, a left-handed starter, a right-handed starter and a young infielder with big power potential. As always, please feel free to discuss these prospects in the comments below. Previous installments of this prospect ranking: Part 1 (41-50)Part 2 (31-40)Part 3 (26-30)Part 4 (21-25)As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.) Top Prospects 16-20 #20 – Brian Navarreto - 20 – C – Cedar Rapids Kernels The Twins used their sixth-round pick in 2013 on the 6-4, 225 pound backstop. He was born in Puerto Rico and went to high school in Jacksonville, Florida. He spent that summer playing for the GCL Twins. He hit .226/.318/.365 (.683). In 2014, he played in 31 games for Elizabethton and hit .194/.241/.370 (.612). In 2015, he moved up to Cedar Rapids where he hit .217/.256/.281 (.537) with 11 doubles, a triple and two home runs. It’s behind the plate where Navarreto stands out. In E-Town, he threw out 59% of would-be base stealers. For the Kernels, he threw out 56% He is often compared to Royals catcher Salvador Perez. At this point, it’s his size and arm, and not his bat that make that comp appropriate. However, he does have a lot of offensive potential. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (29) #19 – Stuart Turner - 23 – C – Chattanooga Lookouts Three rounds before the Twins select Navarreto, they drafted Stuart Turner out of the University of Mississippi. He spent that season in Elizabethton. In 2014, he skipped over the Midwest League and went straight to Ft. Myers. In 93 games, he hit .249/.322/.375 (.698) with 16 doubles, two triples and seven home runs. In 98 games with Chattanooga in 2015, he hit .223/.333/.306 (.628) with 13 doubles and four homers. After throwing out 32% in Elizabethton and Ft. Myers, he threw out 39% for Chattanooga this season. At 6-3 and 230 pounds, Turner is strong and durable and does have potential to get on base and show some power with the bat. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (19) #18 – Taylor Rogers - 23 – LHP – Rochester Red Wings The Twins drafted Rogers in the 11th round of the 2012 draft out of the University of Kentucky where he was a three-year starter. He made six starts in Elizabethton before moving up to Beloit. He began the 2013 season with three starts in Cedar Rapids before moving up to Ft. Myers where he was named the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. With the Miracle he went 11-6 with a 2.55 ERA. He moved up to New Britain in 2014 where he went 11-6 with a 3.29 ERA. He made three appearances in the Arizona Fall League a year ago after taking a liner off his arm in his second outing. He was invited to big league spring training this year and then went to Rochester. He went 11-12 with a 3.98 ERA in 174 innings. He is back in the Fall League now. The lefty throws a fastball between 89 and 92 mph. He has a slider in the upper 70s. He had significantly better numbers against left-handers. At 6-3 and 180 pounds, some wonder if he’ll hold up as a starter. However, this year he’ll hit about 190 innings total. He’ll continue to start, though he’ll likely be able to compete for a bullpen spot out of spring training. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (21), 2014 (11) #17 – Travis Blankenhorn – 19 – 3B – GCL Twins/Elizabethton Twins Blankenhorn was the Twins third-round draft pick this year out of high school in Pottsville, Pennsylvania. A terrific athlete, Blankenhorn has a lot of offensive potential. He began his career with 14 games in the Gulf Coast League. He hit .245/.362/.408 (.770) with four doubles and two triples. He was promoted to Elizabethton where he played in 39 games and hit .243/.306/.326 (.632) with three doubles and three home runs. In those 14 games in the GCL, he played some at first base, shortstop, third base and in left field. When he moved up to Elizabethton, the only defensive position he played was third base. He’s young and he’s raw, but he has a solid swing and uses the whole field. He is strong and should develop power. He could start in extended spring, but I think it’s likely he will begin 2016 with Cedar Rapids. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A #16 – Felix Jorge - 23 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels The Twins signed Jorge out of the Dominican Republic in February of 2011. He spent that summer in the DSL before coming to the States in 2012. He spent a year with the GCL Twins. In 2013, he went 2-2 with a 2.95 ERA in Elizabethton. He began 2014 in Cedar Rapids but struggled mightily. He went back to Elizabethton and was the Appy League Pitcher of the Year. He returned to the Kernels to start the 2015 season and was a completely different pitcher. Overall, he went 6-7 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 142 innings. He was remarkably consistent. He completed six innings in 20 of his 22 starts including a streak of 14 straight. He also gave up more than three earned runs in a start just twice. He sits in the low-90s but has a really good pitch mix. He will advance to Ft. Myers to start the 2016 season. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2014 (19) So, what do you think of Part 5, Prospects 16-20? Next week, we’ll continue the countdown with the Top 15 Twins Prospects. Feel free to share your thoughts on these prospects. Who is too high or too low on this list? Also, start contemplating your own personal Top 20, Top 30 or Top 50 Twins prospect list. Click here to view the article

In previous years, I wouldn't rank anyone until they had played in the GCL. For the Prospect Handbook this year, we're going to include recently signed players in our rankings. So, Diaz, for me, wasn't 'eligible' for me to rank last year. That's why it looks like he jumped from N/A to 21 or so. If I had ranked him a year ago, he probably would have been in that same range, possibly a little higher.

Certainly one to consider... It's impossible to predict big league success for Top 5 (or even #1 prospects), so predicting how these guys will do is even more impossible... There is a chance some won't get to AA, and there could be an All Star in the bunch. That's part of the fun of it.

He remains about potential. But he does have a solid and developing curveball and changeup that were improved this year. Obviously that improvement will need to continue as he goes forward and moves up.

I would tend to think the Zander Wiel will be the primary 1B for the Kernels in 2016, at least to start the year. Reed has only been in the bullpen since signing, and that's where he'll stay.

Or just go with what they've got and give opportunities to Duffey, May and Berrios.

Not a ton of difference, but 1.) he's a year younger, 2.) he got to ET quicker, 3.) he showed more power. Both are very young, and I think Minier will hit and hit for power. Both will have to make more adjustments. They have a long way to go. But I think Diaz has a bit more power potential.

That is definitely something to watch with him going forward. BB rate and K rate are important in evaluation, but not everything.

He won't be the highest pitcher on the list that didn't pitch last year. I try not to "punish" in the rankings for injury, even Tommy John. He's still very young and throws in the upper 90s with a chance to start. He was at 25 last year, so he shouldn't be down much further.

Just in spring training, and he was playing a lot of 3B then, but I've been told that he could play short. He had a lot of errors this year at short, but that's not unusual at the level.

What's encouraging about his performance, particularly in Elizabethton was his young age. It's not like he was a 21 year old putting up great numbers against other 20 and 21 year olds in the league. He definitely put himself in the One To Watch category.

Today, my preliminary Top 50 Minnesota Twins prospect countdown continues with prospects 21 through 25. This is an interesting group in which the word “potential” is the key. The average age of these five players is just 20, and that is with a 23-year-old in the group. Three of these players began the season at extended spring training and one missed the entire season. The similarity among the group is a lot of talent.Previous installments of this prospect ranking: · Part 1 (41-50) · Part 2 (31-40) · Part 3 (26-30) As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.) Top Prospects 21-25 #25 – Fernando Romero - 20 – RHP – Did Not Pitch Signed out of the Dominican in November of 2011, Romero debuted in the Dominican Summer League in 2012. In 2013, he came to the States and posted a 1.60 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 45 innings. After beginning 2014 in extended pring training, Romero came up to Cedar Rapids where he made three starts before experiencing elbow pain. Soon after, he was shut down and had Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2015 season, though he returned for Instructional League. He was again throwing in the mid-to-upper-90s as he had before surgery. He has a couple of different breaking pitches at varying speeds and a changeup, though they are works-in-progress. It will be interesting to see if Romero starts the season in Cedar Rapids, or it they keep him in Florida until the weather warms up. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (25), 2014 (28) #24 – Jermaine Palacios - 19 – SS – GCL Twins/Elizabethton Twins It seems like every minor league season, there is a player or two who jumps from relative obscurity in the lower levels of the minors to an intriguing prospect that people are talking about. Jermaine Palacios fits that category. Signed by the Twins in 2013, he spent the 2014 season in the Dominican Summer League. He came to the States for spring training and began his season in the GCL. In 26 games, he hit a robust .421/.472/.589 (1.061) with nine doubles, two triples and a homer. He was promoted to Elizabethton where he hit .336/.345/.507 (.852) with 14 doubles, two triples and two home runs in 31 games. Palacios can play all three infield positions though he primarily played shortstop in 2015. After having just four errors in 202 innings at shortstop in the GCL, he had 16 errors in 263 innings at Elizabethton. He’s got a lot of developing to do, but he will go into 2016 – likely heading to Cedar Rapids – as one of the more intriguing prospects to watch. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A #23 – Jake Reed - 23 – RHP – Chattanooga Lookouts/Ft. Myers Miracle Reed, the Twins fifth-round pick in 2014 out of the University of Oregon, set the expectation bar really high after his debut season of professional baseball. After signing, he posted a 3-0 record with a 0.29 ERA (1 earned run) in 31 innings. He gave up just 11 hits and three walks while striking out 39 batters. He went to the Arizona Fall League where he was again very good. In 2015, he skipped Ft. Myers entirely, starting the season in AA Chattanooga. However, he really struggled and a week into August, he had a 5.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.54. He was sent down to Ft. Myers for a month and gave up no earned runs in 12.1 innings. He returned to the Lookouts for a couple of games and their playoff run. Blessed with a mid-90s fastball and a bunch of movement on this pitches, Reed can use the 2015 season as a learning opportunity that will hopefully take him to the next level. He will likely return to Chattanooga to start the 2016 season. Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (18) #22 – Sam Gibbons – 21 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels Signed in 2011 out of Australia, Gibbons went 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA as an 18-year-old in 2012. For some reason, he returned to the GCL in 2013 and went 3-3 with a 1.91 ERA. He moved up to Elizabethton in 2014 and was 4-5 with a 3.88 ERA. After beginning the 2015 in extended spring training, he moved up to Cedar Rapids at the end of May. In his first six starts, he was 3-2 but posted a 5.34 ERA. Then in his final nine starts, he was 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA. The keys were that he dropped his walk rate by nearly a walk per nine innings and increased his strikeouts by about 1.5 per nine innings. He has very good mechanics and touches 93 with his fastball. He also has a curve ball and a changeup. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A #21 – Lewin Diaz – 18 – 1B – GCL Twins/Elizabethton Twins Diaz was the Twins' big international signing in July of 2013. He stands 6-3 and is often compared to David Ortiz. He had been an outfielder, but the Twins immediately moved him to first base. He is big and very powerful with the potential to hit a lot of home runs. He spent the 2014 season in the Dominican Summer League and hit .257/.385/.451 (.836) with 13 doubles and five homers. Though he didn’t come to the States for spring training, he did arrive for extended spring training. He began with 33 games in the GCL where he hit .261/.354/.369 (.724) with seven doubles, a triple and a home run. He was promoted to the Elizabethton Twins for their final 14 games. He hit just .167 but three of his eight hits left the park. Diaz is a candidate to start the season in Cedar Rapids, though it’s also very possible that he will report to extended spring training. Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A So, what do you think of Part 4, Prospects 21-25? We'll be back tomorrow with Part 5. Click here to view the article