Seth Stohs

28-year-old infielder who has good OBP in his career and his hit 22 or more HR in Japan each of the last six years.

See previous comments to see the projected Reds rotation in 2020... And again, this is a "typical" every team move because all teams are looking for the guy coming off a bad year with good stuff and previous success to hope to bring them back to solid or better. These types of moves are smart for every organization, including the big spenders and the mid-markets. Part of that is because it doesn't stop them from going after the high price tag guys too. Who were the 4/5/6 starters for the. The Nationals won the World Series with Joe Ross making a Game 6 start. The Twins won one with Les Straker. The Astros got a terrific start from Urquidy. Back ends of rotations come from all over. The difference is that Gausman has enough track record of success (while playing for the Orioles in the AL East and his first half-season with Atlanta in a playoff run. He had a bad year. Doesn't mean he'll be great in 2020. Doesn't mean he'll even be good in 2020. He might be. No guarantee, but all teams sign guys like this and see.

Hamels to Atlanta for one year.

I mean, would the Twins have offered CJ Cron arbitration if he had been projected to sign for $6 million instead of $7.5 million... or $5.5 million... Of did they just decide to go in a different direction? The injury is probably some concern, but he should be fine before spring training. Ultimately, they chose to go in a different direction. There are a lot of factors. The Reds projected rotation looks like Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Anthony DeSclafini and Tyler Mahle. Three of them are still in or under arbitration. And they are one of the finalists for Zach Wheeler. I won't pretend to have followed Gausman in 2019. Maybe there are some underlying concerns. Maybe his lack of spin rate is an absolute No. Maybe there are other injury concerns that teams may have. If so, yeah, find another name. But a guy like Gausman, who frankly did as much in 2016-2018 as Wheeler and is a year younger but he's coming off a rough season, could be had and it doesn't stop them from going after a bigger dollar free agent, or trading for an impact starter too.

I would feel comfortable with having one spot open for Dobnak, Graterol, Thorpe, Smeltzer to compete for. That said, for the Twins, it may (or may not?) be better to have those guys as the 6-9 starters rather than 5-8.

Can't they do both? The beauty of a bounce-back guy like Gausman is that he has no impact on their efforts toward Wheeler, Ryu or Bumgarner.

I think the trend was for teams not being willing to pay the arbitration cost for guys looking to come back because arbitration numbers are high. But it's too early to know what teams are willing to pay for these types. Cron fits into the category as well. Gausman, through arbitration, probably would have made $10 million. He's not worth that, so he gets non-tendered... but getting him for 1 year and $4-6 million could be a steal... or not.

I don't recall writing that he is "so wonderful" just that I still think he's very intriguing and after being a solid mid-rotation starter for 3 years, he had a rough 2019 so he's a possible candidate for coming back...

At Twins Daily, we spent a lot of time preparing for the 2012 Major League Baseball Draft. The Minnesota Twins had the #2 pick and we spent more than a month, behind the leadership of Jeremy Nygaard, considering who the options might be for the Twins. After the Astros selected Carlos Correa with the first pick, the Twins drafted outfielder Byron Buxton, a prep star from Appling County High School in Georgia. Two picks later, the Baltimore Orioles drafted right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman from LSU. I really liked the idea of the Twins drafting Gausman then. Now, you can count me as someone who would love to see the Twins sign Gausman now that the Cincinnati Reds have non-tendered him.LOOKING BACK With a quick look back at the days leading up to the 2012 draft, it was pretty apparent that Byron Buxton was the best athlete in the draft. The Twins were in need of a catcher, and Mike Zunino was early the top college catching prospect in the draft. Gausman, along with Kyle Zimmer (University of San Francisco) and Mark Appel (Stanford, and the #1 overall pick the previous year) were the college pitching names to know. Many were surprised when the Astros took Carlos Correa from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy with the first overall pick. Of course, we have since learned that the Twins had Correa in ahead of the draft and most believe that he was Number One on their draft list as well. The Twins took Buxton. The Mariners drafted Zunino next and then the Orioles selected Gausman one pick before the Royals selected Zimmer. In mid-May of 2012, Jeremy posted an interview with Kevin Gausman while he was still pitching for LSU. While I am always intrigued by immensely athletic baseball players from the prep ranks, as we got closer to the draft, I admit that I went public with the though that I would like to see the Twins draft Gausman. Why? Several reasons. First and foremost, he was a college pitcher who could be ready for the big leagues very quickly. And he was. He debuted with the Orioles less than a year later, on May 23rd, 2013. But it wasn't just that. It was reports of his stuff. Not only was he consistently working with a fastball in the mid-90s, but he sometimes had games where he reached 98 mph regularly. In addition, he had a really, really good changeup and great makeup. There were some concerns about his ability to spin the ball but there was hope that he could develop his curve ball and his slider. A college pitcher at one of the best baseball schools in the country who throws in the mid-90s with five pitches and plus-plus makeup. His Career To Date Gausman debuted in 2013 and spent parts of six seasons with the Orioles. He pitched in 150 games and made 127 starts. 15 of those 23 relief appearances came in his rookie season. In 2016, he worked 179 2/3 innings and posted a 3.61 ERA while pitching mostly in the AL East. The following season, he made 34 starts and posted a 4.68 ERA in 186 2/3 innings. In 21 starts at the beginning of 2018, he was 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA. At the July trade deadline in 2018, he was traded to Atlanta with reliever Darren O'Day in exchange for four minor leaguers and some international bonus pool money. He went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in ten starts. Last season, he earned $9.35 million in his second year of arbitration. But 2019 did not go well for Gausman. He made 16 starts for the Braves and went 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 80 innings. He had a couple of stints on the injured list with plantar fasciitis. Atlanta DFAd him and Cincinnati claimed him in early August. He made 15 appearances for the Reds (one start) and went 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA in 22 1/3 innings. That brings us to Monday when the Reds non-tendered him, making him a free agent. The "Stuff" In 2019, 57% of Gausman's pitches were fastballs which averaged 94.0 mph. That is up slightly from where he was in 2018. From 2013-2017, his fastball averaged between 94.7 and 95.9 mph. In college, his "typical" fastball was about 94 mph but he threw it anywhere from 92 to 98 mph. After throwing his slider about 13-14% of the time between 2016 and 2018, he threw just his slider just 2% of the time in 2019. He threw his changeup about 5.5% of the time the last couple of seasons. The pitch has consistently been ten mph slower than his fastball, which is a good differential. In 2019, he threw his split-finger pitch 35% of the time after it has been between 16-22% previously in his career. I won't pretend to be an expert or a video guy, but he continued to throw hard and throw pitches in the strike zone. He got equal or even higher percentages of swings and misses. In other words, he has the same or at least similar stuff now as he had at the beginning of his major league career. I do know who has a good reputation for being able to find the strengths of a pitcher and even add some velocity. That's the reputation that Wes Johnson has, and with the help of the Research and Development group, just maybe they can find the key to getting Gausman to top form. Gausman has the pedigree, the high draft pick status, and the stuff that earned him that spot. His arm has remained pretty healthy through his first seven big league seasons. That report of "plus makeup" certainly indicates his ability to work and to work within a team environment. And, he won't turn 29 until days after the calendar changes to 2020. And Now... Seven-and-a-half years later, I would love to see a scenario where the Twins have Byron Buxton manning centerfield and Kevin Gausman on the mound. Teaming the duo with another 2012 first-round draft pick in Jose Berrios and the team might have three strong 5.5 players. If Johnson and company can work their magic on Gausman and just get him back to his peak performance, the Twins could have found a very solid #3 starter to fall right between Berrios and Odorizzi in the rotation. Even if they can just get him to his career average numbers, he would make a solid #5 starter for 150 to 170 innings. Because of his relative youth, I don't expect that Gausman's services will come terribly cheaply. I would also expect that he might prefer a one-year, make-good deal. The Twins made a similar deal a year ago with Jonathan Schoop. Schoop was coming off of an injury-plagued season which followed a solid career. Schoop played well for the Twins and would have played more if not for the emergence of Luis Arraez. Personally, and admittedly, I'm probably a bit high on Gausman and believe in his stuff and the makeup he is touted for. I would be willing to get a little creative. I'd consider offering a one year, $5.5 million deal. I would structure it such that Gausman would make $4 million in 2020. I'd include a team option for 2021 at about $8 million but have a $1.5 million buyout. In fact, I would love to include a second option year, at about $10 million, but in that, I would prefer the buyout drop to $1 million. That would mean Gausman could then become a free agent at age 31, the more "normal" free agency age. At those numbers, it would be fairly low risk but there could be some relatively high reward. Even better, it wouldn't keep them from going after he upper-echelon free agents that are out there this offseason. In my mind, of all of the non-tendered free agents, I think that Kevin Gausman clearly has the highest potential. What do you think? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY - Non-Tendered Players That Could Interest the Twins - Get To Know 'Em: Kevin Gausman - Looking Forward by Looking Back (2012 Draft) Click here to view the article

Here is the milb.com article on it with some quotes. https://www.milb.com/milb/news/fort-myers-miracle-change-name-to-the-mighty-mussels/c-312004940

The interesting thing about the Adrianza deal is that, unlike other arbitration deals, it is guaranteed. Maybe doing that made him more willing to sign for a little less than his projected arbitration amount?

I think they'll try to work out a lower deal for him... I would tender him, but my guess is that they will non-tender him if they don't reach an agreement.

Moose to the Reds...

The Twins reached an agreement with Adrianza last year on a last-day deal...

He already won the Silver Slugger Award, and today, MLB announced that Nelson Cruz has won the 2019 Edgar Martinez Award for Outstanding Designated Hitter. He had previously won the award in 2017. In the past, Chili Davis (1991) and Paul Molitor (1996) were Twins to win the award... though it certainly would have had a different name back then. https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/1201593075287629828

Teams will officially offer arbitration or non-tender their arbitration-eligible players by 7:00 tonight. The other option is to agree to terms before the deadline. Here are the Twins arbitration-eligibles with MLB Trade Rumors' projections: Twins (10) Sam Dyson – $6.4MM Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM C.J. Cron – $7.7MM Trevor May – $2.1MM Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM Miguel Sano – $5.9MM Byron Buxton – $2.9MM Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM Jose Berrios – $5.4MM Dyson was previously released. The Twins announced that Ehire Adrianza agreed to a guaranteed $1.6 million deal for 2020. (remember, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed until late in spring training) Keep up with more moves here and discuss any that they make. Of course, the decision everyone is wondering about is CJ Cron.

The reality is that with the extra year of evaluation, the teams are rarely wrong. And generally even the players lost are guys teams are comfortable with losing. They know who to make sure to put on the roster. The must-adds are added.

Agreed...

If it was me running the Tigers or Orioles... absolutely I would. In fact, I might just play him a bunch... I believe in his talent, so absolutely...

First of all, I want to take this time and space to say Thank You to the Twins Daily community. From the owners/founders, to Tom Froemming for all he does, to each of our writers, to the moderators, to those who are active in the blogs and forums, to those of you who just like to come here for the articles. It's been a special year at Twins Daily and I would like to thank all of you. With that, I'd like to do another Ask Seth article. I noticed that I haven't done one since April, so it's about time. Over the next 24-36 hours, I will answer the questions that show up in the Comments below in this article. So feel free to Ask Away.Leave a question or two in the comments below and I will answer them in the article itself. Ask me about the Twins, the offseason, minor leaguers, Rule 5, or whatever you want, within reason. I'll answer them first-come, first-serve. (and obviously, within reason and rules and such.) Let's get the Questions started... From ChiefsKid: What's a realistic expectation of opening day 2020 payroll? Seth: I think putting the expectation at $130 million is more than fair... I also think it's a fairly good over-under as Twins Geek wrote a couple of weeks ago. If you subscribe to the payroll being 48-50% of revenues number that the Players Union has encouraged, they should probably be closer to $140-145 million. From mikelink: My request for you is a rating question:Please give me a top ten prospect list for potential 2020 positions on the 26 man squad, considering the normal number of injuries. Seth: That's a tough question... but I'll try... 1.) Alex Kirilloff 2.) Brusdar Graterol 3.) Jhoan Duran 4.) Brent Rooker 5.) Edwar Colina 6.) Travis Blankenhorn 7.) Lewis Thorpe 8.) Nick Gordon 9.) Devin Smeltzer 10.) Jorge Alcala Those are guys I think could be called up in 2019, ranked by how they are currently in my prospect rankings... But if anyone wants to say that we will see Royce Lewis, I won't argue with you. Same with Trevor Larnach. Next on my list would have been Sean Poppen who I had one place below Alcala. From beckmt: Do you see the twins signing one of the top 6 FA pitchers? Do you see C.J. Cron coming back? Seth: Yes, I see the Twins signing one of the big 5 (not sure who the #6 might be). No, I don't expect them to sign Cole or Strasburg, but I think Wheeler and Bumgarner are definitely in play. I think they'll get one of them. And, I don't think they'll bring Cron back, at least not by tendering him an arbitration deal. Had he been healthy all year, it would have been an easy decision. Now, I'm not so sure. Personally, I probably would bring him back, now that he's had the thumb surgery because he was really good until the initial June injury. He's good, and even if he's not great, he could spend the second half as a platoon guy with Kirilloff. From MN_ExPat: Happy Thanksgiving Seth. Ok, of the remaining FA pitchers, who do you think/believe will ultimately sign and help bring our boys to the promised land? Also, who is your favorite Dark Horse rookie/prospect to this year's Arraez? Seth: Well, first, I think the Twins could sign Cole or Strasburg and it wouldn't guarantee them anything... I personally am starting to think that Wheeler is most realistic, though Bumgarner makes some sense too. Man, that Arraez question is tough. However, the things about Arraez were that he was a solid prospect who produced at every level, had some time in AA, added to the 40 but probably not in the 2019 plans. So, I'll go with Jhoan Duran. I think Blankenhorn might be more similar but there are infielders, so I wanted to go with another position. Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach are higher-ranked prospects so wouldn't be surprising. Duran only has a handful of AA starts, and while he's a talent, he's not a Top 100 guy and I don't think he''s necessarily in any 2020 plans. But, given a shot, he could take off. From AZ Twins: I see a lot of people with “grass is greener” mindset. Which Twins player would Twins fans be most excited about joining the Twins if he came from another team? Is this player the same person you think has the most potential on the Twins? Seth: So many possible answers. Could say Polanco or Kepler because they were most productive. Nelson Cruz was incredible. I would say Jose Berrios would be the Twins player that the Twins fans would be most excited about if he came to the Twins from another team this offseason. He's obviously younger, but he's been better than Wheeler, who will get huge money. Has upside. As for the player with the most potential, that clearly continues to be Byron Buxton. From Rochester Dave: Do you have any sense if the front office is happy with the AAA affiliation being in Rochester? There is only One direct flight (Delta) between the cities daily and across baseball there seems to be a trend towards the affiliates being closer to the major league city. I should add that I believe that the Red Wings are quite happy with the Twins. I know, I am looking forward to Graterol, Larnach, Kiriloff and Lewis in the not so distant future! Also, have you ever visited Frontier Field? Seth: I have not been to Frontier Field. I would love to. I flew in to Syracuse once for work 15+ years ago, drove south to Cortland and then flew out of Binghamton. That's probably as close as I've been. I don't have any sense of that, but I would think the Twins are happy to be with the Red Wings. I'm sure there are little things here and there, but I don't think that the flight situation is a negative. Only negative is how early it is. I don't necessarily see it as a trend yet for AAA affiliates to be closer, there are a few, but maybe any potential rework of the minor league systems with any "contraction" might facilitate some of that. And, the Red Wings should be happy with the Twins. They have a pipeline of prospects that will show up more in 2020 and beyond, and they do a nice job bringing in good minor league veterans too, allowing them to be more competitive. From tarheeltwinsfan: Do the Twins have a binding contract with Elizabethton, which will be breached if the Elizabethton team is eliminated by MLB? Who pays for the extensive renovations which the city of Elizabethton has done recently? Seth: I am not certain the specifics of the Twins deal with Elizabethton. Most Player Development Agreements are signed for two years. The Twins have done a couple of four year deals over the years. The Twins contributed some, but I believe the majority of the ballpark renovations were (and may continue to be) paid for my the taxpayers of Elizabethton. NOTE: This article indicates that Elizabethton will pay $1.5 million and the Twins will pay $800,000 toward the ballpark renovations. From mike link: I was surprised, but not disappointed that Raley was not in the top 10 of prospects to make it on the Twins Roster in 2020.I suspect he is more of a trade prospect. Seth: He probably should be in the Top 10 of that ranking. I truly think that we underrate him, myself included. As I've pointed out, when he was hurt in late-April, early-May, he was making a great impression on the Red Wings and people were taking notice. He is a really good hitter. Maybe not quite the power of Rooker, but much less swing-and-miss, more speed, better defense and will likely hit for more average. He definitely wasn't added to the 40-man roster just to be a trade chip. Now, he could be traded but that isn't the reason ever to add a player. From SteelDodo: Do you have your favorite mlb draft strategies that you prefer? (HS pitcher, HS batter, college pitcher, college batter, etc.) From what I've read, generally, college position players have a higher success rate than pitchers, so I tend to agree with our current FO on spending early draft picks and most of the international money on position players. Having said that, do you think the strategy is TOO batter heavy? What would you do differently if you were in charge of Twins drafting? Seth: That could be a series of articles on its own. My overall theme would simply be to take whichever player you believe has the best chance of being the best player overall. Honestly, outside of a few #1 or #2 overall college pitchers, there aren't a lot of givens in the draft. There are examples of high school and college, hitters and pitchers taken in the Top 5 picks who bust or become stars, in most every organization. I do think that generally pitchers are more risky, but I also think that you have to take those risks sometimes and then hope. In recent years, they've mixed it up pretty well. They've taken college pitchers and high school hitters and pitchers high. They've taken some college bats high the last few years. And then they seen to just add a ton of college arms late, which is hard to argue against as a strategy. From Richard Swerdlick: I am thinking of getting a subscription to MILB TV in 2020 so I can watch some of our prospects. Any thoughts about MILB TV as a service? Seth: I have had MiLB.tv for several years. It's great but fully dependent upon the work done by the affiliates. Rochester does a good job. Pensacola does a really good job. Cedar Rapids has a great production. Ft. Myers and Elizabethton don't have feeds. The nice thing too is that you can go back to games and find highlights. I probably don't use it to its fully potential. From goulik: Raley, Rooker, Larnach... can you rate these three in comparison to each other offensively, defensively, greatest potential, and highest floor? Seth: Larnach is the top prospect of the group. He could hit for average, should add power over time too. Probably the best of the three on defense. Greatest overall potential. Rooker has the most power potential but it will come with the most swing-and-miss. Raley may have the highest floor, though Larnach might too. Raley's just solid all-around. Could hit for some average, some power, and play solid defense. From Rosterman: People don't get excited about the signing of minor league free agents, and in the past it was reported as Big News, but now seems to gets hedlines at MLBtraderumors. You would think that with around 150 players in your organization, one wouldn't need to sign players to mostly play at AAA ball (with a few starting their next turn at AA ball). Can you explain to all of us the reasoning behind minor league free agents, the reason an organization will spend extra money to bring in players looking for a comeback or stalled then jettisoned by a team, or reflect on some gem moments you might remember of such signings in, prhaps, the past decade? Seth: I think the biggest reason is that baseball is hard. Playing AAA ball is really hard, and only a select number get there and succeed there. Teams need to fill AAA rosters. However, it's also important to have depth so that you don't put your prospects in a bad place. First and foremost, teams are going to do what is best for their prospects, at least the top prospects and probably even the secondary prospects. Could the Twins have called up Alex Kirilloff or even Trevor Larnach in September instead of adding Ian Miller (veteran but came in a trade) or Ryan LaMarre? Sure. Would that have been good for the Twins or the player? Who knows? So it's about protecting prospects and filling out a AAA roster. It's also just about having depth. Blaine Hardy is a big-league pitcher, and he can help the 2020 Twins in a role. If they keep adding more players, maybe that role is to start the season at AAA and when the Twins have a need, he gets called up. The Twins have had a lot of successes with minor league free agent signings. I'm not going to look too far back, but Willians Astudillo proved to be a good minor league signing. Ryne Harper was a good minor league signing. LaMarre was a good minor league signing. By their nature, you're not going to find any stars as minor league free agents. That's very rare. But you can find complementary parts that help a team win games. Click here to view the article

Wander Javier is the one that gets talked about the most... I'd hate to lose him. I am most worried about losing Luis Rijo though... Highest upside pitcher, by far.