Willihammer

I find it unlikely that Suzuki agreed to a contract with a PA-based incentive in order to be a backup, or split much time at all, with Pinto (or anyone else)

Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21). Download attachment: Sano_Miguel_Landscape.jpg Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan Boesch (24), and Adam Lind (22). Miguel Sano has logged 200 PAs in both leagues. He's also put up the single highest ISO since fangraphs started tracking these statistics in 2006. In BOTH leagues. (ISO, or Isolated Power, is Slugging Percentage minus batting average. So it measures pure power - how good a player is at accumulating "extra" bases in the form of doubles, triples and home runs.) Here's a quick look at the top 50 performances, by ISO: http://i.imgur.com/n2om1ZW.png?1 Five players posted .250 or better ISO seasons at age 20 or younger in the Florida State League. Of these, only Giancarlo Stanton went on to post a better ISO in AA as a 20-year-old in the Southern League (although Javier Baez is holding a .352 ISO through 194 PAs, also in the Southern league). As stated above, the sample includes all players with a minimum of 200 PAs in either league. If a player hit a lot of gap triples and bloop doubles, ISO could be measuring speed more than power (ISO is Slg%-Avg, or total bases, not including 1st base, divided by ABs). In order to eliminate that possibility, we can just look at home run rate, expressed as AB/HR. http://i.imgur.com/pBT7I0K.png?1 Sano ranks 2nd and 4th in home run rates (tops for the EL) since 2006. If you have been following Sano's year, this shouldn't be a surprise - he has 31 bombs after all. And look at the ages at the top of that list. One of these things is not like the other. So there you have it. Sano's 2013 ranks among the top power seasons in both the Eastern League and the Florida State League dating back to 2006, in just about any way you care to measure power. And he's done it at a younger age than anyone except Giancarlo Stanton. Click here to view the article

Trading Nolasco now would be a blunder I think. Today's Lackey trade is evidence that FA disasters can turn it around and become quite valuable.

Evidently the Royals are looking for pitching but have set their sights a little higher than Correia. I wonder if TR were inclined to flip Milone, what the Royals would give?

They got Moss, Reddick and Crisp for outfielders now. They could probably swap in a RH bat for Reddick when facing lefties. They ought to see little or no decline in OF production from this trade, IMO. All 3 are under control through 2016 too

D'oh, there it is, thanks.

What about attaching pics? I don't have the option, I can only link to image URL

Was the daily cap on likes by design? People ran out of them in a game thread

In Part 1, we looked at the Twins history of acquiring positional talent via the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, the Rule 5 Draft, Trades, Waivers, and Free Agency, during the Terry Ryan era (1995-2013). Here we will do the same for pitchers. PITCHERS 1. Amateur Draft Since 1995, the Twins trail only the Toronto Blue Jays in their reliance on the Amateur Draft for pitching talent, getting 136 player-seasons from 39 pitchers, good for 120 WAR. Notably, Brad Radke owns a full third (45.5 WAR) of that total. Overall, the average Twins Amateur Draftee has pitched to a .88 WAR season. But take Radke out of the equation, and the average drops to .60 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/MG4siqR.png 2. Amateur Free Agency The Twins have given 24 player-seasons to Amateur FA pitchers since 1995. Juan Rincon and Jose Mijares share the top 7 highest WAR seasons. Others in this category include Liam Hendriks, Grant Balfour, Michael Nakamura, Rob Delaney, and Cole DeVries. Together they average a 0.29 WAR season. http://i.imgur.com/73gC0Tm.png 3. Rule 5 Draft The five Rule 5 Twins player-seasons since 1995 are owned by Scott Diamond (3), Ryan Pressly (1) and Travis Baptist (1). Together they have pitched 432.1 innings for a WAR of 1.9. http://i.imgur.com/9ni3gmd.png 4. Trades Trades account for 90 (pitcher) player-seasons since 1995. Of all other AL teams to have existed for the period 1995-2013, only the Angels have been less-reliant on trades to fill their pitching staffs. But, the Twins own the best WAR-average at 1.36, boosted by the acquisitions of Johan Santana (35.4 WAR over 8 seasons), Eric Milton (14.7/6), Joe Nathan (18.3/7), Joe Mays (10.6/6) and Francisco Liriano (9.9/6). http://i.imgur.com/uVp33wI.png 5. Waivers Jeremy Guthrie owns the distinction of most productive pitcher acquired by Waivers since 1995. He was worth 16.5 WARs for the Orioles from 2007-2011. The next closest is Darren O'Day at under 10 WAR. For the Twins, 13 waiver-wire pitchers have been worth 7.6 WAR over 25 player-seasons. Matt Guerrier (7.5 WAR) has been the most productive pickup, with the other 12 players producing just 0.1 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/2CN4lbQ.png 6. Free Agency Bob Tewksbury remains the best free agent pickup for the Twins. He produced 6.5 WAR at a price of 3.75 million over the 1997-1998 seasons. Overall, Twins FA pitchers average .47 WAR per season, good for 8th in the AL http://i.imgur.com/VmwNq1Y.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins most successful means of acquiring pitching talent since 1995 are: 1. Trades (1.36) 2. The Amateur Draft (.88) 3. Free Agency (.47) 4. The Rule 5 Draft (.38) 5. Waivers (.30) 6. Amateur Free Agency (.29) Click here to view the article

Last Friday Terry Ryan spoke to Paul Allen about Free Agency: Free Agency is only one of the 6 most common methods of acquiring talent. The others are the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, Rule 5 Draft, Trades, and Waivers. Using Baseball-references Player registry data, I will examine the Twins' successes at acquiring positional talent via these 6 methods during the period 1996-2013 - the Terry Ryan era. (data here) POSITION PLAYERS The Amateur DraftSince 1996, the Twins have 194 player-seasons from players acquired via the Draft, most of any AL team. They have paid these players a combined $389,248,998, 2nd only to the Yankees. These players have put up an average of 1.26 WAR, good for 6th in the AL. http://i.imgur.com/gKvQamF.png 2. Amateur Free Agency This includes signing international prospects. Sixteen player-seasons have been worth an average of just .26 WAR. Bobby Kielty, Luis Rodriguez, and Luis Rivas own most of those seasons. Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia own one apiece. http://i.imgur.com/BPAcyJd.png 3. Rule 5 Draft Brian Buscher and Jason Pridie are the two Rule 5 position players to stick on the 40 man roster during Ryan's and Smith's tenures. Combined, they provided 0.3 WAR over 5 player-seasons at a cost of just under 2 million. The most active Rule 5 team during this time was the Baltimore Orioles, who kept Jay Gibbons on as DH/outfielder for the 2001-2007 seasons. http://i.imgur.com/pUgIpiT.png 4. Trades The Twins have given 70 player-seasons to players acquired by trade since 1996. Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, and Christian Guzman accumulated 9.1, 8.4, and 7.4 WARs over 15 player seasons. On the other end, Ron Coomer, David Ortiz, and Alexi Casilla accumulated between 2 and 4 WARs over 6+ seasons each. Overall, the average player-season was worth .54 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding Houston and Milwaukee.) http://i.imgur.com/0M6YzGI.png 5. Waivers The Twins have played 7 Waiver claims in positions 2-9 since 1996. They are (WAR in Parenthesis): Augie Ojeda (1.2), Casey Blake (-0.2), Clete Thomas (0.2), Corky Miller (-0.2), Darin Mastroianni (0.3), Erik Komatsu (-0.2), and Pedro Florimon (3.8). The average waiver claim-season has been worth 0.42 WAR, boosted largely by Florimon's 2013 season which has so far been worth 2.2 WAR. http://i.imgur.com/YQ4cjv5.png 6. Free Agency Since 1996, the Twins have 84 Free Agent position player-seasons. WAR likes Paul Molitor (5.2), Josh Willingham (3.9) and Jamey Carroll the most (3.5). On the other end are Rondell White (-1.5), Butch Huskey (-1.0), and Kevin Maas (-0.8). Overall, the Twins average a 0.38 WAR season from Free Agent position players. This is the worst average in the AL (excluding Houston and Milwaukee). Interestingly, they also pay their Free Agents the least of any AL team. http://i.imgur.com/MxJJnAt.png So, in order of average WAR, the Twins' most successful means of positional talent acquisition under Terry Ryan (and 4 seasons of Bill Smith): 1. Amateur Draft (1.26 WAR) 2. Trades (0.54) 3. Waivers (0.42) 4. Free Agency (0.37) 5. Amateur Free Agency (0.26) 6. Rule 5 Draft (0.06) *Note about the Salary figures - rather than look up days spent on the active roster for all the minimum wagers, I assumed they were paid a full season's worth. Therefore salary figures are a little inflated, specially for waivers, rule 5, and amateur draft guys. Click here to view the article

No upload link, either from my willihammer>my profile>my gallery view, or when replying to a post -the only option is to link to URL.

How do we add pics to our galleries?

ALL CAPPS ALL THE TIME :th_alc: :th_alc: :th_alc:

Something I've noticed Pinto does with runners on base - wait till the last possible second to setup for a pitch for fear of tipping to the baserunner where the location of the pitch will be. This delays the umpire crouching and I suspect contributes to Pinto losing strikes. I hope you're right that he figures it out. Nice write-up

@ tarheel, all I did was input the Twins prospects' PA, AB, 2B, 3B, HR values into the tool on the beyondtheboxscore site (linked above), to produce zK, zBB, and zISO values which I then plugged into St John's other tool (sounds dirtier than it was). The tool based on the 41,000 minor league player seasons. That produced the probabilities described above.

I had to update the tables because I had Polanco's 2013 level wrong (A+ instead of A). He still comes out looking ok.

I needed to update the table because I had Polanco's 2013 level wrong (A+ instead of A). He still comes out good though.

Over at Beyond The Boxscore, Chris St John revealed a system for predicting major league success of minor leaguers based on prospect age and level. The system is called JAVIER (named after Cubs SS prospect Javier Baez), and you can read about it here. The system predicts whether a prospect will bust, have an average career, or be a productive player (defined as having at least 1000 MLB PAs and producing at least 0.0275 VORP per PA - read about VORP here), based on a dataset of 41,238 player-seasons between the years 1978 and 2013. In part 2 of St John's reveal, he gives us is a tool where you can input a prospect's age, level, zBB, zK, and zISO values to see how they compare, historically, against all prospects with similar plate discipline and power at a given age/level. So I inputed the values of the top Twins position prospects in the 2013 minor league season (prospects taken from Seth Stoh's top 50 list ). Where prospects split time between two leagues, I used the values from the league where he logged the most PAs. I inputed the player's age as listed on baseball-reference's Minor's page as the minimum of the age range, and their age + 1 as the maximum. I inputed zBB, zK, and zISO values that were +/- one standard deviation. The results are below. [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 396] Player Productive Average Bust Total Avg MLB PA Avg MLB VORP Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]17 [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]146[/TD] [TD=align: right]1137[/TD] [TD=align: right]44[/TD] Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]39[/TD] [TD=align: right]46[/TD] [TD=align: right]624[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]148[/TD] [TD=align: right]176[/TD] [TD=align: right]571[/TD] [TD=align: right]52[/TD] Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]44[/TD] [TD=align: right]65[/TD] [TD=align: right]1428[/TD] [TD=align: right]80[/TD] Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]210[/TD] [TD=align: right]221[/TD] [TD=align: right]166[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]64[/TD] [TD=align: right]447[/TD] [TD=align: right]535[/TD] [TD=align: right]558[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] Danny Santana[TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]57[/TD] [TD=align: right]328[/TD] [TD=align: right]402[/TD] [TD=align: right]636[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]41[/TD] [TD=align: right]85[/TD] [TD=align: right]278[/TD] [TD=align: right]404[/TD] [TD=align: right]1222[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] JD Williams[TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]178[/TD] [TD=align: right]433[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]57[/TD] [TD=align: right]152[/TD] [TD=align: right]252[/TD] [TD=align: right]1620[/TD] [TD=align: right]77[/TD] Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]203[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]442[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]248[/TD] [TD=align: right]280[/TD] [TD=align: right]414[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] Levi Michael[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]268[/TD] [TD=align: right]299[/TD] [TD=align: right]297[/TD] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] Max Kepler[TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD=align: right]118[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]1065[/TD] [TD=align: right]63[/TD] Miguel Sano*[TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]4213[/TD] [TD=align: right]243[/TD] Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]230[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]67[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]207[/TD] [TD=align: right]227[/TD] [TD=align: right]309[/TD] [TD=align: right]22[/TD] Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]306[/TD] [TD=align: right]318[/TD] [TD=align: right]154[/TD] [TD=align: right]33[/TD] Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]69[/TD] [TD=align: right]87[/TD] [TD=align: right]876[/TD] [TD=align: right]54[/TD] Zach Larson[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]175[/TD] [TD=align: right]198[/TD] [TD=align: right]459[/TD] [TD=align: right]49[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [/TABLE] Sano stands out right away - he kinda breaks the projection. Only two batters in St John's dataset fall within a standard deviation of Sano's plate discpipline and power profile as a 20 year old in AA. They are Jose Canseco and Randy Johnson (not that Randy Johnson). So his JAVIER projection is pretty useless due to SSS. We can re-rank the Twins top position prospects in a number of ways. Here they are in order of Productive%: [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 340] Player Productive Total Productive % [TD=align: right]1 Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]43 [TD=align: right]252[/TD] [TD=align: right]17.06%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]65[/TD] [TD=align: right]15.38%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]87[/TD] [TD=align: right]13.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] Max Kepler[TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]13.13%[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]146[/TD] [TD=align: right]11.64%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]41[/TD] [TD=align: right]404[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.15%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]176[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]46[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.70%[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] Zach Larson[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]198[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.57%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] JD Williams[TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]178[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.18%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]280[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.71%[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.58%[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]535[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.49%[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]227[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.41%[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] Levi Michael[TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]299[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.35%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] Danny Santana[TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]402[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]221[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.71%[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]318[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.26%[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.86%[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [/TABLE] Ranked in order of highest average VORP at the MLB level, the top 19 are: [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 293] Player Avg MLB PA Avg MLB VORP [TD=align: right]1 Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]1428 [TD=align: right]80[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]1620[/TD] [TD=align: right]77[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] Max Kepler[TD=align: right]1065[/TD] [TD=align: right]63[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]875.7[/TD] [TD=align: right]53.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]570.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]51.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] Zach Larson[TD=align: right]458.8[/TD] [TD=align: right]49.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]1137[/TD] [TD=align: right]44[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] JD Williams[TD=align: right]433.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]38.3[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]1222[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]153.8[/TD] [TD=align: right]33.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]624.3[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]414.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.3[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] Levi Michael[TD=align: right]297.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]308.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]22[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]442.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]558.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] Danny Santana[TD=align: right]635.6[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]166[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]66.55[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.92[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [/TABLE] Ranked in order of lease likely to bust, the top 19 are: [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 345] Player Bust Total Bust% [TD=align: right]1 Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]152 [TD=align: right]252[/TD] [TD=align: right]60.32%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]146[/TD] [TD=align: right]67.12%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]44[/TD] [TD=align: right]65[/TD] [TD=align: right]67.69%[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]278[/TD] [TD=align: right]404[/TD] [TD=align: right]68.81%[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] Max Kepler[TD=align: right]118[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]73.75%[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]69[/TD] [TD=align: right]87[/TD] [TD=align: right]79.31%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] Danny Santana[TD=align: right]328[/TD] [TD=align: right]402[/TD] [TD=align: right]81.59%[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]447[/TD] [TD=align: right]535[/TD] [TD=align: right]83.55%[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]148[/TD] [TD=align: right]176[/TD] [TD=align: right]84.09%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]39[/TD] [TD=align: right]46[/TD] [TD=align: right]84.78%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]203[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]87.12%[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] Zach Larson[TD=align: right]175[/TD] [TD=align: right]198[/TD] [TD=align: right]88.38%[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]248[/TD] [TD=align: right]280[/TD] [TD=align: right]88.57%[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] Levi Michael[TD=align: right]268[/TD] [TD=align: right]299[/TD] [TD=align: right]89.63%[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] JD Williams[TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]178[/TD] [TD=align: right]89.89%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]207[/TD] [TD=align: right]227[/TD] [TD=align: right]91.19%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]210[/TD] [TD=align: right]221[/TD] [TD=align: right]95.02%[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]306[/TD] [TD=align: right]318[/TD] [TD=align: right]96.23%[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]230[/TD] [TD=align: right]233[/TD] [TD=align: right]98.71%[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] You get the idea. In part 3 you can compare players by minor league careers (rather than single seasons). A blog for another day maybe.

I will definitely be tuning in to watch Bautista light the place up.

It was interesting watching the NESN broadcast during the Boston series - they pin a foxtrax on the screen similar to ESPN during the playoffs. It was clear the Twins were losing strikes. Suzuki just seems to give up on some pitches, almost like he cant be bothered to even try and frame them. I believe this is why he doesn't get some of the borderline calls - he doesn't seem to want them.

I'm starting to accept the possibility/reality that Kubel isn't going to be the same hitter he was. I still think a guy like him deserves a long leash, but maybe that leash has run out. I do want to see Pinto play more.

I loved the 1999-2000 teams too. But you didn't need to be a genius to see that Hunter, Cuddyer, Pierzynski, Radke, Koskie, Mientkewicz, and Jones had real talent. Escobar, Parmelee, Hendriks, Robertson, Worley, Herrmann... I just don't get the same feeling from most of the young guys we have seen recently.

Earlier this month, Teflon estimated the pitching staff would improve by 73 runs, driven mostly by the Twins free agent acquisitions. These runs would push the Twins' pythagorean win total to 70. Assuming that estimate is accurate, how many more runs would the lineup would need to plate in order to push their Pythagorean record all the way to 90? The answer is 188 runs. That's a lot of runs. To see if a 188-run offensive improvement had been done recently, I pulled the Runs Scored/Run allowed values from baseball-reference for all teams dating to 1996 (arbitrary cutoff). Turns out, 4 teams improved their offense by 188 or more runs over that period - the 2003 Braves (+199 runs), the 2000 White Sox (+201), the 2004 Tigers (+236), and the 1999 Diamondbacks (+243). How did they do it? Were the primary drivers players the organizations drafted, free agents, trade acquisitions, waiver pickups, Rule 5 guys? Below is a position by position look at changes to wRC for each team. (wRC is an estimator of total offensive production in runs, you can read more about it here). Below that, is a tally of wRC improvement by method of acquisition. First up: the 2002-2003 Braves The period 2002-2003 in Braves history is extraordinary. The 2003 team outscored the '02 club by a whopping 199 runs, but the pitching surrendered 175 more runs. Both teams won 101 games during the regular season and both teams lost the NLDS in 5 games. According to wRC, the '03 team saw a 191 run improvement from its position players. That gives us an indication how closely the weighted averages matched reality - very closely, in this case. The best improvements were at 2nd base (+69 wRC) and at Catcher (+55). The short explanation for the Braves' offensive explosions is "it came from within." At 2nd base, 53rd round pick Marcus Giles took a big step forward. In 2002, his sophomore year, Giles produced just 26 runs over 242 PAs. Jesse Garcia, Keith Lockhart, and Mark DeRosa shared 624 PAs and produced the other 51 wRC's. All together, the bunch was worth 77 wRC. The next year, Giles took over the lion's share of PAs and was worth 113 wRC all by himself. 2003 would be the best season of his short career. In 2002, catching was done by committee - Henry Blanco took 24% of PAs and was worth 16 wRC. Javy Lopez took 37%, for 34 wRC, Julio Franco took 37% (47 wRC) and Steve Torrealba took 2% (-1 wRC). Overall the group was worth 96 wRC. In 2003 however, Javy Lopez, signed by the Braves as an amateur free agent in 1987, broke out for a career year - 108 wRC over 495 PAs. He was 32. Blanco, Julio Estrada, and Julio Franco pitched in for 43 wRC more. Overall the position improved by 55 runs. The rest of the 2003 team saw small offensive improvements across the board - 7 runs at Pitcher (Russ Ortiz had 2 home runs), 2 at first base, 29 at third base (Vinny Castilla improved by 29 runs over 2002 at age 35), and 22 runs in right field where a 34 year old Gary Sheffield had a monster year, producing 142 wRC (which boosted right field production by 22 wRC). Sheffield stands out as one of the few trade acquisitions - after the 2002 season, the Braves shipped out 6th round pick Andrew Brown, 36 year old outfielder Brian Jordan, and 23 year old pitcher Odalis Perez to get him. The 1999-2000 White Sox According to wRC, the 1999 White Sox should have scored 784 runs and the 2000 squad should have scored 934 (a 150 run improvement). In reality, the 1999 team scored 777 runs and the 2000 team scored 978. So, there's a pretty sizable variance between the weighted estimator and reality in this case. There are a lot of variables that lead to scoring runs. One of the weaknesses weighting every HBP, walk, single, double, triple, home run, stolen base, and caught stealing the same, is that not all of these events have an equal impact on real games. An obvious example would be triples - hitting one with 2 outs is worth less than hitting one with zero or 1 out. wRC makes no distinction, it weighs them the same. In any case, where wRC says the 2000 White Sox improved most was at shortstop (+84 runs), DH (+61), and left field (+41). The story behind that improvement has 3 aspects - a trade, a future HoF draft pick, and an amateur free agent signing. On January 12, 2000, the White Sox traded 33 year old Jaime Navarro and 2nd year pitcher John Snyder to the Brewers for a 32 year old Cal Eldred and 30 year old Jose Valentin. As a result of the trade, 22 year old SS Michael Caruso, a 2nd round pick, was optioned to the minors in 2000 where he stayed the rest of his career (with one exception being a 12 game stint for the Royals in 2002). Valentin took those PAs from Caruso and produced 95 wRC, which was 60 more than Caruso managed in 564 PAs the year before. Journeyman infielder Tony Graffanino pitched in 21 more. At DH, the Big Hurt. Only he was the Medium Hurt in 1999, when he produced "just" 99 wRC over 590 PAs. But in 2000, at age 32, he was Big again and and put up a stellar 155 wRC's over 707 PAs. Thomas was an organizational guy whom the Sox drafted 7th overall in 1989. In the spring of 2000, 2nd year waiver pickup Brian Simmons broke his Achiles. He had surgery and missed all of the 2000 season (and pretty much every year after that). This narrowed the Sox's left field options to two - 2nd year amateur free agent pickup Carlos Lee and 27 year old 4th round pick Jeff Abbott. Lee assumed the majority of the at-bats (as he had in 1999), but stepped up his game. He improved by 26 runs over his 1999 season, and Abbott pitched in 29 more over 242 PAs to improve the production by 41 wRC overall. As for real-world wins, the 1999 team had 75 and in 2000 they had 95, three games better than their Pythagorean W-L in each year. 2003-2004 Tigers wRC says the 2003 Tigers scored 581 runs, and the 2004 Tigers scored 824. In reality, the 2003 squad scored 591 and the 2004 team scored 827. Very close. Pythagoras says the 2003 Tigers won 49, and the 2004 team won 79. Reality says they 2003 team won 43 and the 2004 team won 72. In addition to the offensive explosion, Tigers pitching improved to prevent 84 additional runs in 2004. Together the 320 run improvement to their RS/RA differential was 2nd most of any team since 1996. What this shows is just how bad the 2003 Tigers were - their offensive explosion a year later caused no casualties. The starting point was so low that the 2004 team still stunk. Anyway, the 2004 Tigers saw a number of small improvements. At first, a 26 year old Carlos Pena improved on his '03 performance by 11 wRC. In right field, a 33 year old Bobby Higginson impproved by 9 runs over his 2003 performance. But the lion's share of the Tiger's explosion came from the middle infield and catcher positions. Amateur free agency, free agency, and a trade are behind it. On January 8, 2004, the Tigers shipped a 23 year old Ramon Santiago, a former two-time Baseball America top 100 prospect, and minor league pitcher Juan Gonzalez to the Mariners for 28 year old shortstop Carlos Guillen. With Guillen at short, 22 year old Omar Infante transitioned from being a utility/backup infielder to the primary second baseman. The two of them combined to produce 169 wRC over 1139 PAs in 2004 - a 79 run improvement. Brandon Inge caught 100 games for the Tigers in 2003. It would be the last year he spent significant time behind the plate. That offseason, the Tigers moved Inge to a third base/utility role, parted ways with 33 year old Matt Walbeck, and signed 32 year old free agent Ivan Rodriguez to a 4 year $40m contract. Rodriguez caught 125 games the next year for 90 wRC. Overall, the wRC improvement at catcher was 58 runs. The 1998-1999 Diamondbacks The 1999 Diamondbacks, like the other three teams, didn't win the World Series. But, they did put together the greatest single season turnaround of a franchise for the period 1996-2013. The DBacks improved their net scoring differential by 379 runs in 1999 (+243 on offense, -136 on pitching). For the offensive side, the story was: a trade, a second trade, and a 3rd trade. First trade: Dec 28, 1998. The DBacks shipped 22 year old rightfielder and top 100 prospect Karim Garcia to the Tigers for 31 year old Luis Gonzelez. Gonzalez took over in left, displacing a committee of 25 year old David Dellucci, 25 year old Yamil Benitez, 31 year old Bernard Gilkey, 27 year old Brent Brede, and and 28 year old Andy Fox. Gonzalez was worth 131 wRC, a 64 run improvement over the committee that was worth a combined 67 wRC in 1998. At third, 33 year old Matt Williams improved on his 1998 season by 36 wRC runs. Williams had been acquired by trade prior to the 1998 season that sent Travis Fryman, Tom Martin and cash to the Giants. With 22 year old Karim Garcia gone to the Tigers, the Diamondbacks moved to fill right field. They shipped 19 year old outfielder Paul Weichard and 26 year old RHP Jason Boyd to the Pirates for 29 year old Tony Womack. Womack moved into the leadoff spot, and was worth 83 wRC in right over 499 PAs.

The results were lousy but I was still impressed by his stuff. 92-94 velocity is better than we're used to seeing and his slider looked good to me. Not sure about the cuverball or changeup. He was wilder than I expected but that might be due to post-TJ recovery. Certainly he had decent command in the minors so I would bet on that improving.