Nick Nelson

Five of the last six posts all from the same person. Impressive work.

Twins notes: Filling out the starting rotation | StarTribune.com I'm pulling for Samuel Deduno to win a spot in the rotation, but had viewed him as something of a long shot since he's not in camp and not on the 40-man roster. It sounds like the Twins have taken notice of his impressive WBC performance though.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1462-Position-Analysis-Second-Base

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3521[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Brian Dozier 2012 Stats: .234/.271/.332, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 33 R Potential Backups: Jamie Carroll, Eduardo Escobar From the outside, nothing about Brian Dozier’s career path suggested stardom was in the cards. In fact, there was little to suggest that he possessed the capability of turning into an MLB regular. A Southern boy out of Mississippi drafted in the eighth round, Dozier debuted in 2009 with good numbers as a college draftee competing against more inexperienced players in rookie ball. He followed that up with an unimpressive .700 OPS in his first turn at full-season ball, looking the profile of a future utility guy, at best. Over those first couple years, Dozier performed well enough to move up the ladder but not well enough to catch the eyes of scouts or prospect analysts (save for maybe our guy Seth). Then, in 2011, he experienced a breakout. Between Class-A Ft. Myers and Class-AA New Britain, the shortstop batted .320/.399/.491 with 54 extra-base hits while holding his own defensively. In isolation those numbers were excellent; with his age and experience level taken into account, less so. Still, for the first time he had exhibited the potential to become a legitimate major-league asset. Shortstops that can get on base and flash some pop are valuable, especially in this organization. It was around this time that the Twins’ front office – or, at least, certain members of it – became enamored with Dozier. We started to see quotes from organizational personnel touting his abilities, and fawning media portrayals from scribes being fed by team sources. After his 2011 season, it became clear that Dozier was firmly entrenched in the team’s plans, almost regardless of his performance. Last year in spring training there were reports of internal debates over whether or not the infielder, who had played only 78 games above Single-A, should open the season on the big-league roster. Ultimately, he was optioned to Triple-A, but it wasn’t long before he got the call despite mediocre numbers in Rochester. Dozier joined the Twins in early May and played in the majors for about three month. He looked over-matched, struggling to put together good at-bats and seemingly taking the bad ones out onto the field with him. With both sides of his game failing to show the improvement they’d hoped to see, the Twins knocked him back down to Triple-A in August, where he played poorly over the remainder of the campaign and failed to earn even a September call-up. Despite all that, Dozier has been hailed as essentially a lock to make the starting lineup from the outset this spring, this time at second base. Coaches in camp have remarked that he looks like a different player now. He has made several nice plays at second and although he's batting just .244 in exhibition play, a 5-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 45 plate appearances indicates that his plate approach has been sound. Carrying those strides into the games that count will be Dozier's challenge. All the club needs is for him to be steady with the mitt and adequate at the dish. Anything more would be a great bonus -- especially if he can establish himself as a legitimate No. 2 hitter -- but shouldn't be expected based on his performance up to this point. In 132 contests between Triple-A and the majors, he has batted .233 and struck out in 17 percent of his plate appearances. Despite all the verbal accolades he receives, Dozier has much to prove on the field. If he can't cut it, the Twins do have the luxury of a fairly reliable fallback plan. Jamey Carroll is in the second and final year of a contract he signed last offseason, and although he's hardly an offensive weapon (he slugged .317 last year) he's a steady player who makes the plays in the field and gets himself on base. Of course, he's also 39, so his ability to hold up for a full season could be in question. That's probably part of the reason he hasn't been viewed as a credible contender to start, along with the fact that feeding him at-bats does little for the club's rebuilding process. Looking down the farm for prospective second basemen, there's no one noteworthy in the pipeline until you reach Eddie Rosario, who hasn't played above Low-A and is no lock to stick in the infield. As such, the Twins are depending on Dozier to become a sturdy bridge, so it's hardly surprising that he's being handed the reigns, nor will it be surprising if he's given a pretty long leash.

Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.

Well said, Jim. I personally tend to think his defense doesn't make up for his horrendous bat, but the other side of that opinion has more merit than a lot of people suggest.

I'm not so sure. If Morneau demonstrates this year that he's returned to form, I think he'd be pretty highly coveted as a free agent. A lot of teams would love to add an elite slugger and proven run producer with his track record. I don't know if his age will be that great a deterrent; look at the deal Swisher just got.

I've been saying since December I thought Hicks would be the starter as long as he didn't drop an egg in the Grapefruit League. I've not seen a single thing that's made me doubt it. There's no need to rehash the service time discussion, it's just not going to be a factor here. He may be get sent down at some point due to struggles with the transition, and if that happens this is a non-issue. If it doesn't happen, that means Hicks is catching on and in that case we'll probably be too pleased to be concerned with decisions that are six years away.

There's a risk with any player that he'll get hurt and give you no production for the cost. Could happen with Mauer. Basically has happened with Mauer. But with Morneau, it'd be a one-year deal and they're going to have loads to payroll flexibility next year, so it doesn't seem like a terrible risk to me, even if you have to overpay a bit. Especially if he's coming off a big season.

Not sure how even Gardy could justify sticking Dozier in the 2-spot unless his bat picks up in the final weeks of spring training. The guy has simply done nothing to show he can handle that role. I'm thinking at this point there's a very good chance Mauer opens as the No. 2 hitter.

I said this on Twitter last night while watching the game, and it bears repeating: We often lose perspective on Mauer with all the local noise, but the fact that Torre has him batting fourth -- in this lineup -- says a lot about his reputation around the league as a hitter. And he has delivered, taking consistently better at-bats than anyone else in this star-laden group. Regarding Deduno... he's the rare pitcher who is 29 but still has intriguing upside. His style is unconventional, but so was Dickey's when he came through the Twins' organization as a 34-year-old. Dickey was trying to figure out a hard knuckleball and it took him quite a while to master; Deduno's stuff, which darts all over the zone, has been likened to knucklers by some catchers. Could he be a late-bloomer in the same vein? I'd like to give him an extended chance to find out, if the alternatives are guys like Cole De Vries.

It'll be an interesting situation, and it's nice because it keeps the Twins from being forced to move Morneau at the deadline if he's playing well and they're out of it. In the event that no one offers up what they're looking for, they can keep him and give him a qualifying offer during the offseason. He either turns it down to look for a multi-year deal, in which case the Twins move on with their plans and get an extra draft pick, or they get him on a ~12M one-year deal for 2014. I'd take him back on those terms. Of course, this is all predicated on Morneau having a good year, which is why his production this season is quite important to them.

The better question is: why do you care so much about $200k? It's nothing.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1456-Position-Analyis-First-Base

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3509[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Justin Morneau 2012 Stats: .267/.333/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 63 R Potential Backups: Chris Parmelee, Joe Mauer, Jeff Clement It’s been so long since we’ve seen Justin Morneau at his best, it’s easy to forget what “his best” even looked like. In the two-and-a-half seasons since his fateful concussion in Toronto, Morneau has shown only the occasion glimpse of elite hitting ability. Beyond the lingering effects of the head injury, which dragged on for well over a year and often prevented him from being able to work out at full capacity, Morneau has dealt with a barrage of dings, nicks and strains to nearly every other part of his body. It's like his voodoo doll fell in a blender. For such a sturdily built athlete, the first baseman has had a shockingly difficult time staying healthy. He was definition of durability in 2008, when he played in all 163 of Minnesota’s games, but since then he’s missed at least 27 games every season. Just when it seems like he’s gotten past another major ailment, something else invariably pops up to take a treacherous toll on his performance or sideline him. That’s why it’s understandable if you're dubious of Morneau right now, despite the fact that he is – by all accounts – as healthy as he’s been in years, and absolutely crushing the ball this spring. One year ago, Morneau was openly pondering the idea of retirement, feeling as though his nagging head and wrist issues may never disappear. Now, he's fresh off a brief but dominant stint with Canada in the World Baseball Classic and his decision to participate in the tourney was significant. Entering the final leg of his current contract, this is a hugely important season for Morneau's future; his health and production over the course of the coming campaign will dictate whether he lands a one-year make good or a sizable multi-year deal afterward. That he was willing to forgo the controlled pace in Ft. Myers and compete in a pressure-packed preseason environment signals a high level of confidence in the state of his 31-year-old body. Everything he’s done on the field over the past month has helped to legitimize that confidence. In a handful of games played with the Twins, Morneau was locked in, smashing hard liners to all fields and knocking in runs. In 20 at-bats, he tallied three doubles, a homer and eight RBI, bringing back memories of his heyday from 2006 through 2009 when his total of 470 RBI ranked him fourth in baseball, behind only Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. While batting cleanup for the Canadians in the WBC, he continued to rake, collecting seven hits (three doubles) in 11 at-bats for a cool .636 batting average. Put all the pieces together, and you've got a healthy, confident former MVP who's playing for a contract. If the guy takes you by surprise this year, you haven't been paying attention. Of course, to come full circle, it would not be a surprise if health again became a problem for the battered slugger. Nor would it be a surprise if he were traded at some point during the summer. Therefore, depth here is important. Chris Parmelee, who will open the season in the outfield, looms as the heir apparent, if all goes to plan. He's in line to replace the veteran at first next year and circumstances could hasten that process, although Parmelee will need to hit. Jeff Clement, the former premier prospect turned 29-year-old flameout, could eventually become an option. Chris Colabello, a fellow minor-leaguer journeyman who's had a pretty nice WBC himself, is a long-shot contender. But, as is usually the case, Minnesota's system is short on outstanding first base prospects. They're counting on a big year from Morneau, who could become an appealing trade chip while also helping keep the Twins relevant. But, as the future of the position is concerned, they're counting on a big year from Parmelee even more.

I dunno. Gibson is now 18 months removed from the surgery so you would hope he'd be back to about where he was before, at which point he was pretty much MLB-ready. The command issues at this point are a tad concerning, IMO, particularly considering that location is such a huge part of his game.

A little disappointing that Gibson couldn't take control this spring and establish himself as a top five option, as I'm excited to see him get going and innings are limited this year, but hopefully he'll sharpen up over the early weeks in Rochester and come to Minnesota by early May ready to go, with an extra year potentially added to his service time.

You're right, Riverbrian should totally go slap Gardenhire around a little bit and change his outlook on this matter. There's nothing anyone here can do to "fix" the problem. RB was simply commenting on the best approach given the circumstances we face. The team's manager embraces that "stupid, misguided notion" and that's just reality. I don't see anything wrong with posing scenarios that might make Gardy's affinity for a third catching option more palatable as opposed to redundant complaints about it.

Teflon made a great point in his earlier post, and it's something I spoke to last season. Deduno is what you'd call "effectively wild"; a high walk-rate is part of his game. He doesn't know where his pitches are going to end up and neither do opposing batters, contributing to consitently weak contact evidenced by low hit rates and homer rates over the course of his career. It's true that you'd rather have a guy walk to first than run to second or third, or jog around the diamond. That being said, a BB/9 of 6.0 is unpalatable, so Parker's writeup here is encouraging.

Yikes, dunno how that happened. Dreaming, I guess...

The flip side to that question is this: what do you accomplish by wearing down Mauer's already beaten legs with a heavier catching workload in a season where the team's going nowhere? Keep in mind they've got Mauer under contract for another five years after this. I say have him catch often early, but once the team inevitably falls out of realistic contention, cut back significantly. More starts at 1B/DH than catcher late in the year.